Either the Sun Is Getting Smaller or Gravity Is Getting Weaker

Click For Summary

Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the implications of potential changes in the Sun's mass and gravity, exploring whether the Sun is getting smaller or if gravity is weakening. Participants examine the effects on the Solar System, including orbital dynamics and gravitational interactions, with a focus on theoretical and conceptual implications rather than empirical conclusions.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that the Solar System's orbital radii could be increasing as the Sun's mass decreases, while others propose that friction from solar wind may counteract this effect.
  • There is a discussion about the momentum of solar wind and its potential role in expanding orbits, with some arguing that it acts like a lower solar mass.
  • One participant questions the significance of a decrease in gravity per year, noting it may be smaller than the uncertainty in the gravitational constant.
  • Another participant points out that astronomers measure the product of the gravitational constant and mass, GM, rather than the gravitational constant alone, which complicates interpretations of changes.
  • Concerns are raised about the effects of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun on planetary orbits, particularly for Mercury.
  • Some participants discuss the gravitational influence of Jupiter on the Sun and speculate about future scenarios where Jupiter's gravity could have a more significant effect on the planets as the Sun's mass decreases.
  • There are technical inquiries regarding the calculations of energy loss from gravitational waves between the Sun and Jupiter.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with no clear consensus on the implications of the Sun's mass loss or changes in gravity. Multiple competing hypotheses are presented, and the discussion remains unresolved regarding the dominant effects on the Solar System.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight various assumptions and uncertainties, such as the dependence on definitions of gravitational effects and the complexities of measuring gravitational interactions over cosmological timescales.

  • #31
Just as a sanity check, I took the figures given in your reference for the total energy dissipated by tidal forces:

"P = 110 ± 25 GW. For comparison this is 22 times smaller than the M% dissipation rate in the oceans (Cartwright & Ray 1991), but an order of magnitude greater than the rate in the atmosphere (Platzman 1991)."

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20000072440.pdf

I multiplied 110 GW by 23, to combine losses from solid and liquid friction, which gives an estimate of the total amount of energy dissipated by all tidal forces on Earth:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=110+*+10^9+*23+W

This gives 2.53 TW, about the same as total electrical power consumption on Earth.

I then used 1/2 * (G * Mass_earth * Mass_sun / Orbital radius of Earth):

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?...sun)*(mass+of+Earth))/(2*(astronomical+unit))

This gives 2.649 x 10^33 Joules for the orbital kinetic energy of Earth. Wolfram helpfully adds that this figure is 98% of their number for the "Earth's orbital kinetic energy around the Sun", so it looks right.

Divide the second number by the first number:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?.../(2*(astronomical+unit))+/+(110+*+10^9+*23+W)

The result is that the Earth will stop orbiting the Sun due to its loss of orbital kinetic energy from tidal friction in a mere 33 trillion years.

If we rather cavalierly assume constant tidal friction over time, the age of the Earth is 4.5 billion years, so we have lost about

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(age+of+the+earth)+/+33+trillion+years

or 1.38 * 10 ^ -4 = 0.000138 of the initial kinetic energy.

Call it about one percent of one percent.

That's also tossing all lunar tidal friction into the equation, which is not accurate for our solar distance calculation, as that mostly slows down the moon, rather than the Earth.

So, yeah ... it's not a big factor.
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
3K
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
2K
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
3K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
3K
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
3K
Replies
17
Views
4K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
3K
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
2K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
3K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
2K