Expectation of amount of money won in a game

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the expected amount of money won in a game involving the rolling of dice. The original poster explores the expectation of a random variable representing the amount of money received based on the number of sixes rolled when multiple dice are thrown, utilizing concepts from probability and binomial distribution.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Mathematical reasoning, Assumption checking

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • The original poster attempts to derive the expected value of money based on the number of sixes rolled, questioning the correctness of their calculations and the implications of varying amounts of money received. Other participants discuss the use of probability distribution tables and the formulation of expectations through summation, while some express confidence in the original poster's approach.

Discussion Status

Participants are actively engaging with the problem, providing feedback on the original poster's calculations and exploring different methods to arrive at the expected value. There is a recognition of the connection between the expectation of the binomial distribution and the problem at hand, though some participants express uncertainty about specific calculations.

Contextual Notes

There is an ongoing discussion about the equivalence of different experimental setups (rolling all dice at once versus sequentially) and whether the assumptions made about the independence of the dice rolls hold true in both scenarios.

songoku
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Homework Statement
A man throws ##n## dice and will receive $ ##\frac{1}{2}x## where ##x## is number of sixes occurred (##x=0,1,2,...,n##). Prove that the expectation of the amount receives is $ ##\frac{1}{12}n##
Relevant Equations
Linear Combination of Random Variable: E(aX) = a.E(X)

Binomial Distribution: X ~ B (n, p)

Expectation of Binomial Distribution = np
This is what I did:

Let Y = number of sixes occurred when ##n## dice are thrown

Y ~ B (n, 1/6)

E(Y) = ##\frac{1}{6}n##Let Z = amount of money received → Z = ##\frac{1}{2}Y##

E(Z) = E(1/2 Y) = 1/2 E(Y) = ##\frac{1}{12}n##I got the answer but I am not sure about my working because I didn't take the amount of money into account (whether the man receives $0.5 or $1 or $1.5 , etc)

Is my working correct? Thanks
 
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It seems to me your working is correct. You took into account the amount of money received in an implicit way by using the random variable Z.
 
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Delta2 said:
It seems to me your working is correct. You took into account the amount of money received in an implicit way by using the random variable Z.
Actually I am more confident if I use probability distribution table to calculate the expectation, but I just can't solve it

This is what I tried:
For Z = 0 → P(Z = 0) = ##\binom n 0 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^0 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^n##

For Z = 0.5 → P(Z = 0.5) = ##\binom n 1 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^1 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-1}##

For Z = 1 → P(Z = 1) = ##\binom n 2 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^2 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-2}##
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.
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For Z = ##\frac n 2## → P(Z = n) = ##\binom n n \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^n \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^0##Expectation
$$=0 \times \binom n 0 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^0 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^n + 0.5 \times \binom n 1 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^1 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-1} + 1 \times \binom n 2 \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^2 \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-2} + ... + \frac{n}{2} \times \binom n n \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^n \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^0$$
$$=\sum_{r=1}^n \frac{r}{2}\binom n r \left ( \frac{1}{6} \right) ^r \left ( \frac{5}{6} \right) ^{n-r}$$

Is this correct? If yes, how to prove that the sum will be ##\frac{1}{12}n##?

Thanks
 
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This should be in your textbook notes on how to calculate the expectation value of a variable that follows the binomial distribution. That sum is the expectation value of binomial with the factor 1/2 in front of it.

Now that I think of it I should be able to calculate that sum but I can't at the moment, I am stuck as you :D.
 
Or, simply: the expected return on each die is $0.50/6. He throws ##n## dice, so the expected return is $0.50n/6 = $n/12.
 
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PS a way of seeing that this is valid is to imagine throwing the ##n## dice one after the other; rather than all at the same time. Then, taking the expected gain after ##n## consecutive throws.

The expected gain for ##n## consecutive throws must be $n/12; and, it must be the same as throwing all the dice at the same time.
 
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PeroK said:
The expected gain for n consecutive throws must be $n/12; and, it must be the same as throwing all the dice at the same time.
That was something that was troubling me, if the two experiments are equivalent from a probabilistic point of view. Why are they if I may ask?
 
Delta2 said:
That was something that was troubling me, if the two experiments are equivalent from a probabilistic point of view. Why are they if I may ask?
In both cases there are ##n## independent dice.
 
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Thank you very much for all the help and explanation Delta2 and PeroK
 
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