PeroK said:
This is also garbage. How can the world change technologically significantly several times a month? Whoever wrote this has modeled progress as a simple exponential without taking into account the non-exponential aspects like return on investment. A motor manufacturer, for example, cannot produce an entire new design every day, because they cannot physically sell enough cars in a day to get return on their investment. We are not buying new cars twice as often in 2021 as we did in 2014. This is not happening.
You can't remodernise your home, electricity, gas and water supply every month. Progress in these things, rather than change with exponential speed, has essentially flattened out. You get central heating and it lasts 20-30 years. You're not going to replace your home every month.
Your're analyzing the future in the context of its past. That just doesn't work. There could be no such thing as investment, and return and selling, etc, as we see them now.
For example, what limitations would those contraints really impose when you require 0 human labor to design, manufacture, distribute, dispose of, clean up, and recycle things, and have essentially unlimited resources, and can practically scale up as large as you want extremely fast, limited mainly by what you have in your solar system? And then after that, how long to colonize the nearby star systems?
The fact is that near future technology can easilly suddenly make these things possible. Your house and car could easilly be updated weekly or even continuously each minute, and for free, just as easy as it is for your computer to download and install an update.
And AI superintelligence isn't needed for that, just an AI pretty good intelligence. The superintelligence part may be interesting too, but not sure exactly what more can be done with more intelligence that couldn't be otherwise. I guess, probably things like math breakthroughs, medical breakthroughs, maybe imortality, maybe artificial life, or nano-scale engineering that looks like life, things like that.
Some other things to expect are cyborgs, widespread use of human genetic engineering, and ultra realistic virtual worlds and haptics, or direct brain interfaces, that people are really addicted to.
I don't know how to measure technological advancement as a scalar value though. I think Kurzweil is basically probably about right in the big picture.