Finding conditional probability

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating the conditional probability of selecting a white ball first from a bowl containing w white balls and b black balls, followed by the addition of n balls of the same color. The derived formula for the conditional probability that the first ball selected was white, given that the second ball selected is black, is confirmed as P(W1|B2) = w/(w+b+n). Participants suggest using event labeling (B1, B2, W1, W2) and visual aids like event trees to clarify the problem-solving process.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of conditional probability and Bayes' theorem
  • Familiarity with event trees and sample space representation
  • Basic knowledge of probability notation and terminology
  • Ability to manipulate algebraic expressions in probability contexts
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the principles of Bayes' theorem in depth
  • Learn how to construct and interpret event trees for probability problems
  • Explore advanced topics in conditional probability, including joint and marginal probabilities
  • Practice solving problems involving conditional probabilities with varying sample spaces
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Students studying probability theory, educators teaching statistics, and anyone looking to enhance their understanding of conditional probability concepts.

mckallin
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Homework Statement
There are w white balls and b black balls in a bowl. Randomly select a ball from the bowl and then return it to the bowl along with n additional balls of the same color. Another single ball is randomly selected from the bowl(now containing w+b+n balls) and it is black. Show that the conditional probability that the first ball selected was white is w/(w+b+n)

The attempt at a solution
This is my last question of my assignment and I can't figure out even how to get the first step. The condition we know here is an event happened afterward, so I am even confused with that. I try to list the sample points which are A(1st-w, 2nd-w), B(1st-w, 2nd-b), C(1st-b, 2nd-b), D(1st-b, 2nd-w), and the possible sample points should be B or D. Then I try the conditional probability for B:

Sample point B :

Being the first selecting:
P(w)=w/(w+b) P(b)=b/(w+b)

By sample point B, it supports that the first selected ball is white, second is black, so using the equation:
P(blw)=P(bnw)/P(w)=P(bnw)/[w/(w+b)]=b/(w+n+b)
so, P(bnw)=[w/(w+b)]*[b/(w+n+b)]

Here it already looks strange because B is just one of the sample points, but I still continue:

P(wlb)=P(wnb)/P(b)={[w/(w+b)]*[b/(w+n+b)]}/[b/(w+b)]=w/(w+b+n)

I got the answer, but I think it is not a correct process because I was just putting something into an equation with no reason. However, when I tried other ways, it even went worse. So is there anyone can give me some ideas just like how I should start to prove and that will be great. Thanks a lot.
 
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It might help to label the events B1,B2,W1,W2 to avoid confusing them with the parameters w,b - so you're working in the event space {B1,W1}x{B2,W2} and want to calculate P[W1|B2]. It might also help to visualize it by drawing the event tree to work out P[B1nB2] etc before you apply Baye's theorem.
 

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