Finding E(Y) and Var(Y) with Conditional Expectation

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SUMMARY

It is not possible to determine E(Y) and Var(Y) solely from the conditional distribution f(Y|X). The discussion illustrates this with the example where Y is distributed as f(x) = 0.5 for x = -1 or 1, and X is distributed as f(x) = 1 for x = 1. The conditional distribution f(Y|X) reflects the distribution of X, indicating that manipulating the mean and variance of Y can occur independently of f(Y|X).

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  • Understanding of conditional distributions in probability theory
  • Familiarity with the concepts of expected value and variance
  • Knowledge of probability mass functions
  • Basic skills in statistical analysis
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  • Study the properties of conditional expectation in probability theory
  • Learn about the law of total expectation and its applications
  • Explore the implications of changing probability mass on distributions
  • Investigate the relationship between joint and marginal distributions
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Statisticians, data analysts, and students of probability theory seeking to deepen their understanding of conditional distributions and their limitations in deriving overall expectations and variances.

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Is it possible to solve for E(Y) and var (Y) when I am only given the distribution f(Y|X)?

I can solve for E(Y|X). But is it possible to find E(Y) and var(Y) given only this info?
 
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No it is not. Let Y be distributed as f(x) = .5 if x = -1 or 1, 0 otherwise. Let X be distributed as f(x) = 1 if x = 1, 0 otherwise. Then f(Y|X) is the distribution of X. You can change the mean and variance of Y to almost whatever you want by moving the other probability mass, and f(Y|X) will not be affected.
 

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