morrobay said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/30/aus...asures-amid-delta-covid-variant-outbreak.html From this report limo driver 2 weeks ago was index case that generated 170 cases. So: R0^4.66 = 170 then 4.66 logR0 = log170. Then R0=10^.4786 = 3.01 note the exponent of growth, 4.66 is from 14days/3day generation interval. See fig,1. The generation/infection interval is about one day less than serial interval.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32145466/
Nice post.
Just a few comments.
It must be remembered that R0 of 5 is an estimate under pre Covid conditions. Many people, including me, are taking greater precautions regardless of mandated government mask-wearing etc. In fact, we have a growing number of people who say the government is too intrusive - people are smart enough to make their own decisions given the correct information. People that post here are highly likely to be in that camp - i.e. figure out the correct precautions for their circumstances and take them - but the general population? Anyway, pursuing that is likely taking us into politics which is not what we are on about.
Things here in Aus are at a knife-edge right now. But rest assured, at the first sign of it tipping the wrong way - total lockdown everywhere - the Australian public is strong on that point - they do not want any cases here in Aus. By just doing that, governments have been returned with virtually no opposition, i.e. just a couple of people.
Our vaccination program has been totally botched for several reasons, some of which do not reflect well on our bureaucracy:
1. We were told that CSL in Melbourne was producing over a million doses a week of AZ and producing vaccines even before approval. That turned out to be a lie. It was 400,000 as soon became apparent when GP's were only getting 50 doses a week. Still, the bureaucrats did not come clean - it was like pulling teeth getting the truth out of them. There were also significant distribution bungling I have posted about before. Again getting that information was like pulling teeth. We know it now, but not when it counted.
2. They did not consistently message the AZ CVT risks and were IMHO using the wrong methodology in explaining that risk. People should have been told even getting out of the bed of a morning carries greater risk. There are zero reasons to limit its use. All vaccines at that stage were administered by GP's who would explain the risk, and the patient can decide. But we were making 1 million doses locally of AZ and importing 300,000 doses of Pfizer per week. Again getting that 300,000 out of the bureaucrats was like pulling teeth. We are told it will increase over the coming months to a whopping over 2 million a week by year-end, outstripping local AZ production. We will see. In deciding what vaccine to get that 12 weeks is needed before you get the second dose of AZ, but 3 weeks for Pfizer needs to be considered. By the time that 12 weeks happen, there may be plenty of Pfizer. But in waiting watch it:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/victor...at-australian-birthday-party/?sh=55395ac5612f
3, There is a conflict of information coming from state and federal governments. This was highlighted by when the deputy Commonwealth Medical Officer quit and returned to private practice. He is now singing a different song - IMHO a much more rational one. He now says we have offered vaccines to all vulnerable groups. We must finish frontline workers. Then it is first in, first served on all vaccines. The government has announced we will be opening up at the beginning of next year. If you are not vaccinated by then - well, you will cop whatever the government decides. I believe it should be you must see your doctor who will explain the necessity of getting vaccinated. I am hopeful that is all that is required, but we will see. More draconian measures may be necessary, such as what is done for the Triple Antigen Vaccine. It is no jab - no pay - all government benefits stopped, including tax concessions. If even that does not work, then I think that is about as far as the government can legitimately go - but we will see. The desire of the Australian people to keep this out of Aus is powerful.
Just my take as a person living through this in Aus.
Thanks
Bill
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