News How has Bush economics affected the job market in the United States?

[Microburst]

Gee wiz, it was Bush who came up with NAFTA, right?

Anyway, it sicken me to see so many idiots blame a president for loss of Jobs or give credit for new jobs.

There is VERY little a president can do to create or lose jobs. Too bad so many people have very little common sense.


Max

Actually a president can do a lot through foreign policies and local ones, the trick is how to stay competitive. I suggest bombing anyone who refuses to buy our products LOL J/K...

 

[russ_watters]

So, given those views, what did you think of Bush's answers in last night's debate that the solution to unemployment is more education?

Well, I would say better education. But that's a subtlety lost on the vast majority of the population. Yes, more, in general, is good, but it'll only take you so far.

... but it just seems to be devaluing a college education to say everyone can get one.

The way I see it, what devalues a college education is a glut of people getting useless degrees. An engineering degree is still worth today what it was worth 30 years ago. --actually, I'm doing about the same as my dad was at my age with less education. We're both engineers, he just has 3 degrees and I only have one.

All that said, there is a reality there that I'm well aware of: you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. You can send a kid to college, but you can't make him study or pick a worthwhile major. Yes, some of those kids would be better off just accepting that college isn't for them (frankly, a nice way of saying they're slackers) and getting some technical knowledge. We should encourage everyone to shoot for college - but those who show they can't do it chould be encouraged to get technical training. That's how it works in Germany (kids are targeted early and put on tracks) and their extremely high-skilled manufacturing shows it.

Of course, as a professor, I'm very supportive of people getting college educations and expanding their knowledge, even if it's just for fun and not to get a job...

I'm wholly opposed to that. I'm a big fan of realism. It made my college experience less fun than most of my friends', but I'm better off for it professionally today.

I don't think your comment insinuating this is a democratic view is accurate. I am a total democrat, but also understand how competitive it is today in this country when it comes to jobs.

Fair enough - I think you're breaking the mold, but that's just my perception based on my observations of a small slice of America.

Again you have failed to understand the most elemental aspects of what has been said. I cited the jobs you and Bush consider employment: Taxi Drivers, Donut salesmen, waitress, photolab operator at Bi-Rite... Maybe you consider these good opportunities for college grads, but no reasonable person would agree.

Well, I guess I fail to understand the difference between a "citation" and an "assertion." Since I don't see a link to a source, a quote, or any data, that looks to me like an "assertion" with no "citation" to back it up. Reasonable or not, I won't accept an argument not based on facts. Further, I won't even respond to the purposeful mischaracterization of my opinion there.

Ivan, you don't have to keep refusing to post the facts: I already posted them. They don't support your assertion, they quite directly contradict it.

 

[Moonbear]

Well, I would say better education. But that's a subtlety lost on the vast majority of the population.

If I recall correctly, I think Bush's better education answer, in terms of public schools, not college educations, was what he discussed in answer to the minimum wage question. In terms of what he would say to the worker whose job was outsourced, he said he give them money for more education, go to a community college, something like that.

I agree our public schools need improvement, but I don't think throwing money at them is going to help. If you have good teachers and parents who raise their kids to respect those teachers, then you could teach under a tent by drawing in sand and give those kids a good education.

Regardless, I think Bush dodged the outsourcing question completely in the debate. Okay, I know for the average person this would backfire, but I just so wish a political candidate would just once say, you know what, that is a really complex problem, I'm working on it, but no, I don't have a good solution for that one.

(As a side note, folks have probably noticed that in a number of topics previously, such as Iraq, I've held a predominantly Democratic position, whereas with domestic issues, I'm taking a more Republican position...this is why I don't belong to any party. )

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ivan, you don't have to keep refusing to post the facts: I already posted them. They don't support your assertion, they quite directly contradict it.

I only refuse to service your intentional mischaracterization of my posts. It seems that you don't need anyone to debate. You just make up both sides as you go. No wonder you support Bush.

I can cite perhaps hundreds of examples of large businesses that employ skilled labor, such as Boeing, that are leaving the country. The burden of proof is on you to show evidence of the new skilled jobs to replace the old ones. I already know that McDonalds is hiring.

Next, if we have no products to export, what produces wealth?

 

[Kerrie]

I only refuse to service your intentional mischaracterization of my posts. It seems that you don't need anyone to debate. You just make up both sides as you go. No wonder you support Bush.

I can cite perhaps hundreds of examples of large businesses that employ skilled labor, such as Boeing, that are leaving the country. The burden of proof is on you to show evidence of the new skilled jobs to replace the old ones. I already know that McDonalds is hiring.

Next, if we have no products to export, what produces wealth?

i have seen the same scenario within my own company ivan. you bring up a good point of what will produce wealth once manufacturing is completely gone.

 

[russ_watters]

...

I pretty much agree with all of that - though I didn't watch the debate, so I can't comment on that.

I can cite perhaps hundreds of examples of large businesses that employ skilled labor, such as Boeing, that are leaving the country. The burden of proof is on you to show evidence of the new skilled jobs to replace the old ones. I already know that McDonalds is hiring.

No, Ivan, as you well know, anecdotal evidence is incomplete evidence. A battle of anecdote vs anecdote is utterly meaningles. You haven't sown anything unless you can show me the statistics. But to save you the effort, I already have: unemployment is low and wages are high.

 

[Kerrie]

I pretty much agree with all of that - though I didn't watch the debate, so I can't comment on that. No, Ivan, as you well know, anecdotal evidence is incomplete evidence. A battle of anecdote vs anecdote is utterly meaningles. You haven't sown anything unless you can show me the statistics. But to save you the effort, I already have: unemployment is low and wages are high.

russ, as i understand it, you live on the east coast? ivan and i are both in oregon, a state that is suffering a higher unemployment rate then perhaps pennsylvania. giving total figures for the United States as a whole is a bit skewed. you have to realize that different regions of the usa experience slightly different economies. here is an article from the LOCAL newssource-

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/business/109784134456030.xml

quite honestly, i think ivan is voicing a very valid concern as i am experiencing in my own company here in oregon. (we both are in oregon)
note this line in the article:

Oregon's unemployment rate has ranked first or second worst in the nation for the past 38 months, Ayre said

 

[russ_watters]

russ, as i understand it, you live on the east coast? ivan and i are both in oregon, a state that is suffering a higher unemployment rate then perhaps pennsylvania. giving total figures for the United States as a whole is a bit skewed. you have to realize that different regions of the usa experience slightly different economies. here is an article from the LOCAL newssource-

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/business/109784134456030.xml

quite honestly, i think ivan is voicing a very valid concern as i am experiencing in my own company here in oregon. (we both are in oregon)
note this line in the article: [emphasis added]

Fine, Kerrie, I accept that things are worse than average in Oregon - what I object to is making up statistics to support a point, whcih Ivan did in another thread on the same subect. It isn't quite lying, but its close, and he's making the same argument here. I guess supporting the point with nothing is a step in the right direction from supporting the point with fabrications, but its not much in the right direction.

According to your article, Kerrie, the unemployment rate is 30% higher in Oregon than the national average. But Ivan claimed (made up statistics to support) that the number of people making minimum wage in Oregon is 20% when the national average is 3%. That's 567%. This is why I insist on real facts (which you have graciously provided).

edit(next morning): Rethinkig this, the fact that Oregon is doing worse than the national average means that Ivan's personal perceptions are not just incomplete, but are also skewed toward leading him to believe things are worse everywhere than they actually are. Ie, seeing unemployment at 7% in Oregon could lead him to assume its 7% in the whole country, when it isn't. This is a secondary danger with basing an opinion on personal perception and a limited set of facts.

 

[Moonbear]

How about Kerry's plan to keep public schools open until 6pm? If anything we need less indoctrin... *ahem* schooling

I didn't reply to this sooner because I didn't recall such a plan, so went to Kerry's website to see what it said. Here's what it says on his site http://www.johnkerry.com/issues/education/

Offer 3.5 Million After-School Opportunities Through "School's Open 'Til Six"
John Kerry and John Edwards are strong supporters of after-school programs. They give students extra help, keep them out of trouble, and offer peace of mind to working parents. The Kerry-Edwards "School's Open 'Til 'Six" initiative will offer after-school opportunities to 3.5 million children, through programs that are open until 6 p.m. and offer safe transportation for children.

So, he's not planning to force kids to stay in school until 6, he's setting up an after-school program. It's essentially an alternative to babysitters, daycare or stay-at-home parents. When I was in elementary school, we had similar programs available (for a small supplies fee) and I enjoyed them quite a bit. We had the option of taking some enrichment classes not offered as part of the regular curriculum, such as learning a foreign language or dance lessons. I've also taught after-school science classes for the same program, when I still lived in the same area. Of course, we didn't have the programs available year-round when I was in school, but they were so fun I wished they were longer. For some kids, just letting them stay in the school library or cafeteria to do their homework would be great, especially if it was a convenient place to meet with tutors without needing a parent to leave work to pick them up and drop them off somewhere else. I know my required routine as a kid, when I wasn't taking an afterschool class, was to go straight home and do homework until mom got home and made dinner (homework was done at the kitchen table, so we had to be done in time to set the table), so if I could have stayed with my friends in school and done homework together and not have to carry the books home, that would have been even better.

Anyway, it doesn't sound at all mandatory.

 

[aeroegnr]

Anyway, it doesn't sound at all mandatory.

I have no proof or anything other than the assertion that my best guess is that once stuff like this gets federal funding, it will become mandatory in time. Just like when Massachusetts started requiring compulsory school, the rest of the country soon followed suit. Or we saw from the Germans (pre world war I) how best to educate the masses.

I oppose any involvement of the federal government in education. When the federal government sets standards for schools nationally, they dictate how the country is going to look 20 years from now and later. That is not in the government's legitimate power.

After reading several books by John Taylor Gatto (in the process of fact checking it so that I know what I read isn't made up hogwash), I am stronger in my assertion that the federal government should have nothing to do with education. This is along with reading the works of Robert D. Honigman, Charlotte Thompson Iserbyt, George Orwell, Kurt Vonnegut.

 

[Moonbear]

I have no proof or anything other than the assertion that my best guess is that once stuff like this gets federal funding, it will become mandatory in time. Just like when Massachusetts started requiring compulsory school, the rest of the country soon followed suit. Or we saw from the Germans (pre world war I) how best to educate the masses.

There are already afterschool programs like that. The only difference I can see in Kerry's position from that of previous administrations is that he's proposing they run until 6 pm rather than 4 or 5 like most afterschool programs run. This gives working parents, who get off work at 5, a chance to get to the school to pick up their kids. There are afterschool programs now, though funding for these programs has been declining. Looking at the numbers of kids this is supposed to affect and the description of the program, it looks more like a supplement to the welfare program. I suspect this is intended more for kids whose parents can't afford babysitters or afterschool daycare, and also need to work a full-time job, so can't be home at 3 when their kids get out of school. Such programs for "latchkey kids" have been around for ages, he's just putting funding back into it. I'm not even sure his numbers increase funding from past levels, I think it just restores funding to a program that has been cut drastically.

 

[Kerrie]

edit(next morning): Rethinkig this, the fact that Oregon is doing worse than the national average means that Ivan's personal perceptions are not just incomplete, but are also skewed toward leading him to believe things are worse everywhere than they actually are. Ie, seeing unemployment at 7% in Oregon could lead him to assume its 7% in the whole country, when it isn't. This is a secondary danger with basing an opinion on personal perception and a limited set of facts.

Ivan's perceptions are based on what he is directly experiencing-his quote:

One of my biggest customers [historically], and a one hundred old Portland company has gone south - all the way to Mexico. Oh, the corporate owners will still make money, but five hundred highly skilled workers are effectively doomed - most are already gone.

I think he has every right to gripe.

 

[russ_watters]

Ivan's perceptions are based on what he is directly experiencing...

Yes, I know - that's the problem: Ivan is not directly experiencing everything. One must recognize that all perceptions are, by their very nature, limited and try instead, to base their opinions on all the facts - not their perceptions.

 

[Kerrie]

Yes, I know - that's the problem: Ivan is not directly experiencing everything. One must recognize that all perceptions are, by their very nature, limited and try instead, to base their opinions on all the facts - not their perceptions.

it's people's perceptions that tend to play a direct role in reality. this situation in the United States has affected ivan, but not you (i am assuming?) perhaps if it did affect you directly-you losing money in your pocket for example- you might have a different opinion on it, thus taking a different stand on it then you are now. your perception was obviously limited also since you were unaware of the high unemployment here in oregon thus not being able to understand Ivan's perception

 

[selfAdjoint]

And even places where the nominal unemployment rate is not that high are having problems. For example, the IT want ads, which used to cover four pages in the Sunday Chicago Tribune, now cover much less than one page (last time I looked). That's another piece of "partial" information. But like Kerrie, I guess I would like to know where russ is, and what segment of the economy he's in, that he can be so nonchalant.

 

[member 5645]

And even places where the nominal unemployment rate is not that high are having problems. For example, the IT want ads, which used to cover four pages in the Sunday Chicago Tribune, now cover much less than one page (last time I looked). That's another piece of "partial" information. But like Kerrie, I guess I would like to know where russ is, and what segment of the economy he's in, that he can be so nonchalant.

I'd venture to say I'm as nonchalant as Russ is on all of this. And so let me say that I am in the IT industry. I rode the wave up 7+ years ago, and subsequently rode it down. Not only that, I was in Houston, in the IT industry gas and oil sector when Enron crashed and 9/11 happened.
All that has happened is IT is shifting around. The industry was bloated and inefficient before. My own business has personally been the cause of having a dozen people, or more, laid off. I have NOT remade those jobs, because I do not need to.
Your example of the IT industry is one that is highly flawed.

 

[russ_watters]

it's people's perceptions that tend to play a direct role in reality. this situation in the United States has affected ivan, but not you (i am assuming?) perhaps if it did affect you directly-you losing money in your pocket for example- you might have a different opinion on it, thus taking a different stand on it then you are now.

Perhaps, but again, if I did that, I'd be holding an uninformed opinion.

your perception was obviously limited also since you were unaware of the high unemployment here in oregon thus not being able to understand Ivan's perception

Certainly, all perceptions are limited - mine included. Again, that's my entire point. That's why I strive to not base my opinion on my perceptions, but on larger facts - such as the actual unemployment and income stats for the country. Ivan's extension of his perception into a "fact" that he made-up that is waaaaay off shows just how flawed perceptions can be and why it is important to not get fooled by our own perceptions.

But like Kerrie, I guess I would like to know where russ is, and what segment of the economy he's in, that he can be so nonchalant.

I'm a mechanical engineer (I design building a/c systems) in southeastern PA.

Trust me guys, I have some great examples of bad things happening to friends/relatives/neighbors of mine. 3 of my closest friends used to work for UNISYS, which is closing a large facility about 5 miles from my house. 2 got laid off and the 3rd quit so he wouldn't be the last one standing in an empty building (all 3 are doing fine today). But my opinion is not based on this one anecdote because I recognize that it isn't representative.