How long will the petroleum industry be profitable?

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    Industry Petroleum
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the future profitability of the petroleum industry, particularly in light of falling oil prices and the potential impact of renewable energy sources. Participants explore various factors influencing oil prices, the role of petroleum in different industries, and the implications for future employment in the sector.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants express concern that if petroleum becomes less useful for transportation and energy, prices could drop significantly, potentially to around $15 per barrel.
  • Others argue that petroleum will remain valuable for manufacturing and chemical industries, suggesting it will be useful for a long time, even if its role as a fuel diminishes.
  • One participant estimates that the petroleum industry could remain profitable for another 20 to 50 years.
  • There is a contention regarding the impact of renewable energy on oil prices, with some asserting that renewables will never compete effectively with fossil fuels.
  • Another viewpoint suggests that the current drop in oil prices is due to supply and demand dynamics rather than the rise of renewables.
  • Participants discuss the influence of OPEC and the changing landscape of oil production, noting that technological advancements have altered the market significantly.
  • Some contributions highlight the need for petroleum-based products, such as lubricants, which remain cost-effective despite the rise of alternative energy sources.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

The discussion features multiple competing views regarding the future of the petroleum industry and the impact of renewable energy. There is no consensus on how long the industry will remain profitable or the extent to which renewables will affect oil prices.

Contextual Notes

Participants mention various factors influencing oil prices, including geopolitical events, economic activity, and technological advancements in oil extraction. The discussion reflects uncertainty about the long-term viability of the petroleum industry and the role of renewables.

  • #31
mheslep said:
To get some idea for comparison I used 10 MBtu/ton from the above.
Now you've got me doubting myself. From Energy Information Administration, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2006, "108 ton/a, and 1015 BTU/a," or, 107 BTU/ton, or, 1010 J/ton. That's the energy audit on the steel industry. Just for reference, 5 x 10SUP]8[/SUP] J/ton melting scrap, and 1.7 x 109 for C reduction of hematite. Rolling billet to plate? O(3 x108 J/ton for 50% reduction in thickness (I would recommend a livestock salt block rather than grain of salt with that number). "Slip casting" may have made that number irrelevant.
Just spent about eight hours running into pay walls, consultant ads, IT pay walls, and irrelevant drivel trying to chase down an energy audit for the chemical process industry, and succeeded only in establishing enormous doubts in my mind regarding any energy audit figures. Annual U.S. consumption in J, 1019, 3 x 1019, and 1020. The first two are nominally electrical energy, and the third total. Relevance here is that audits assign 5-6% consumption to the steel industry, 3% (?!) to the chemical process industry (which may be compared to 30% for India, and 18% for UK).
A little chemistry and a number or two for you to ponder, while I ponder what little I've been able to come up with so far: epoxy resin synthesis for anything that's going to handle the environmental conditions (UV, weather) begins with H2O2 at ~ 50 kJ/mol, to make t-BuOOH, to whatever epoxide is desired. That's it for energy accounting so far. How many epoxide groups per mole of monomer, or kilogram of resin? At this point, I'm going to have to take a break and think about what else to search for as far as finding slightly more substantial numbers. And I thought some of the Earth science numbers were "soft." This is an uglier bit of bookkeeping than I would have thought given emphasis on energy use since the embargo forty years ago.
 
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  • #32
  • #33
zoki85 said:
As concerns "wind" see this proposal:
http://vortexengine.ca/index.shtml
Haha, some ideas are more desperate than others.
Can anyone be far off-base when this is on their front page ?:rolleyes:o_O:D ( Tesla, my hero)

mad-like-tesla-small.png
 
  • #34
RonL said:
Can anyone be far off-base when this is on their front page ?:rolleyes:o_O:D ( Tesla, my hero)
I would say it is enough to be slightly off-base for concept like this to generate more troubles than electrical power as things scale up...
But, at least they are trying something. Tesla would be proud of them ;):D
 
  • #35
Bystander said:
This is an uglier bit of bookkeeping than I would have thought given emphasis on energy use since the embargo forty years ago.
For those who wonder how my "60 MJ/WInstalled" is derived, it's a fifty year old rule of thumb, "sell it for twice what the utility company bills you for making it." , half of "$2/WInstalled," a common figure, is one buck, divided by a nickel (big users get big price breaks per kWh) is 20 kWh.
Trying to audit this within the somewhat "fuzzy" framework of existing "global" energy audits may not be possible. I have not abandoned pursuit of an answer to mheslep's question. It's just going to take longer than I originally thought it should.
 

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