How long will the petroleum industry be profitable?

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Oil prices are currently declining, with speculation that they could drop to around $30 per barrel. Concerns are raised about the long-term profitability of the petroleum industry, especially as renewable energy sources gain traction for transportation and power. While petroleum is still essential for manufacturing and petrochemicals, its future demand is uncertain, leading to fears of a price collapse. The discussion highlights that current low oil prices are influenced by oversupply rather than renewable energy competition. Overall, the future of the oil industry remains debated, with some predicting profitability for several decades despite challenges from alternative energy sources.
  • #31
mheslep said:
To get some idea for comparison I used 10 MBtu/ton from the above.
Now you've got me doubting myself. From Energy Information Administration, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2006, "108 ton/a, and 1015 BTU/a," or, 107 BTU/ton, or, 1010 J/ton. That's the energy audit on the steel industry. Just for reference, 5 x 10SUP]8[/SUP] J/ton melting scrap, and 1.7 x 109 for C reduction of hematite. Rolling billet to plate? O(3 x108 J/ton for 50% reduction in thickness (I would recommend a livestock salt block rather than grain of salt with that number). "Slip casting" may have made that number irrelevant.
Just spent about eight hours running into pay walls, consultant ads, IT pay walls, and irrelevant drivel trying to chase down an energy audit for the chemical process industry, and succeeded only in establishing enormous doubts in my mind regarding any energy audit figures. Annual U.S. consumption in J, 1019, 3 x 1019, and 1020. The first two are nominally electrical energy, and the third total. Relevance here is that audits assign 5-6% consumption to the steel industry, 3% (?!) to the chemical process industry (which may be compared to 30% for India, and 18% for UK).
A little chemistry and a number or two for you to ponder, while I ponder what little I've been able to come up with so far: epoxy resin synthesis for anything that's going to handle the environmental conditions (UV, weather) begins with H2O2 at ~ 50 kJ/mol, to make t-BuOOH, to whatever epoxide is desired. That's it for energy accounting so far. How many epoxide groups per mole of monomer, or kilogram of resin? At this point, I'm going to have to take a break and think about what else to search for as far as finding slightly more substantial numbers. And I thought some of the Earth science numbers were "soft." This is an uglier bit of bookkeeping than I would have thought given emphasis on energy use since the embargo forty years ago.
 
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  • #33
zoki85 said:
As concerns "wind" see this proposal:
http://vortexengine.ca/index.shtml
Haha, some ideas are more desperate than others.
Can anyone be far off-base when this is on their front page ?:rolleyes:o_O:D ( Tesla, my hero)

mad-like-tesla-small.png
 
  • #34
RonL said:
Can anyone be far off-base when this is on their front page ?:rolleyes:o_O:D ( Tesla, my hero)
I would say it is enough to be slightly off-base for concept like this to generate more troubles than electrical power as things scale up...
But, at least they are trying something. Tesla would be proud of them ;):D
 
  • #35
Bystander said:
This is an uglier bit of bookkeeping than I would have thought given emphasis on energy use since the embargo forty years ago.
For those who wonder how my "60 MJ/WInstalled" is derived, it's a fifty year old rule of thumb, "sell it for twice what the utility company bills you for making it." , half of "$2/WInstalled," a common figure, is one buck, divided by a nickel (big users get big price breaks per kWh) is 20 kWh.
Trying to audit this within the somewhat "fuzzy" framework of existing "global" energy audits may not be possible. I have not abandoned pursuit of an answer to mheslep's question. It's just going to take longer than I originally thought it should.
 

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