News I really see no hope for employment in the US

[CAC1001]

I'm sure that Communism would work fine if you could find Party bureaucrats that were totally non-corrupt and completely ethical, but those people are rare, and people that are really self-sacrificing tend not to get into positions of power...

Communism wouldn't work fine even if every member of the government had a heart of gold. Even if completely non-corrupt, no government can centrally coordinate an economy. What you would see, however, is a total lack of corruption within said centrally-planned system.

Remember, a market economy has millions of prices. Whenever one price changes, essentially all the other millions of prices must change in relation to that one price change. So you have millions of prices constantly fluctuating all in relation to one another. Trying to centrally calculate this is impossible.

 

[russ_watters]

Different, but I would think proportional.

By that you mean the same discrepancy in every country?:

I see no reason to believe (for instance) that the US population takes less advantage of opportunity than the populations of the Scandinavian countries.

Well, would you agree that the biggest opportunity provided to us by our government is 12 years of free education? The US is far behind most other western countries in completion of that free education and that is almost entirely by personal choice:
http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=1653

Country: Graduation Rate:
United States: 72%
Finland: 91%
Denmark: 96%
Sweden: 71%

Not sure what Sweden's problem is...

So I think it is instructive that on average, the children of immigrants do do better than their parents:

This paper documents the evidence on social mobility in the immigrant population and summarizes some of the lessons implied by the evidence. There is significant economic "catching up" between the first and second generations, with the relative wage of the second generation being, on average, about 5 to 10 percent higher than that of the first generation.

http://www.nber.org/papers/w12088
They come here for the opportunity and they take advantage of it.

 

[Mathnomalous]

Well, it should be obvious that if you are a newly arrived immigrant with a few pennies in your pocket, your children will end up richer than you. Now, what happens to the 3rd and 4th generations?

Actually, that is irrelevant. Remember, a bunch of people aged 55 to 65 will retire and die in the next 10 - 30 years. Plenty of employment and opportunity once these people disappear. The US will be fine in the long-run.

 

[Gokul43201]

Have you applied for these jobs before? In my experience, teaching universities want people with teaching experience. Most of the people I know who went the small liberal arts route worked as adjuncts and lecturers rather than doing traditional postdocs. More research isn't going to make you a better teacher. Also, keep in mind that while there are a lot of liberal arts colleges, not many of them need a lot of physics professors.

I agree, and should have worded my response better. I have not personally applied for a position at a liberal arts school or small college/university yet, but so far I've been very fortunate in landing exactly what I wanted.

I have however, had a few colleagues who have. I know one person, who decided about 6 months her first postdoc, that she preferred a teaching job to one with no teaching at all. She left, and began teaching at a liberal arts school in less than a year after starting the postdoc. I know two other postdocs who were having a hard time finding a position (this was a little over a year ago, when universities were on shoestring budgets), until they started applying to faculty positions at 4-year colleges (I believe both involved research responsibilities). One of them accepted the position, the other shortly landed a second postdoc and took that instead. I know more postdocs (all within cond mat) who I believe had landed, but not necessarily accepted, faculty positions in universities with grad programs that are not typically ranked in the top 50, but still have a significant research focus (and there are hundreds of such schools).

 

[WhoWee]

Well, it should be obvious that if you are a newly arrived immigrant with a few pennies in your pocket, your children will end up richer than you. Now, what happens to the 3rd and 4th generations?

Given the recent popularity of the "death tax" - it's hard to predict - isn't it?

 

[Mathnomalous]

Given the recent popularity of the "death tax" - it's hard to predict - isn't it?

The estate tax is irrelevant.

The real transfer of wealth from one generation to another happens in real time: better house, better food, better education, etc. that places the younger generation on a higher rung than the older generation. In real terms, people today are better off than their immigrant ancestors. That is why that issue is irrelevant.

The issue here is that those early immigrants had immediate access to opportunity; they got off the boat and found a job because most jobs required manual labor back then; little or not school required, certainly no college. Today, people need to complete more steps to get access to those opportunities; high school -> undergraduate -> grad/professional school. And like Mr. Watters commented, many people choose not to go through that process.

Not to mention, many of the industries of the past are closed off to most of today's entrepreneurs. Want to start a car company today? Either find a niche like Tesla Motors, or good luck competing against GM, Toyota, etc. The opportunities of today are in the Wild Wild West of the Internet.

Edit: I'd like to mention, social mobility is a literal pyramid scam. We would be better off with less social mobility and more (downward) technological mobility.

 

[WhoWee]

The estate tax is irrelevant.

The real transfer of wealth from one generation to another happens in real time: better house, better food, better education, etc. that places the younger generation on a higher rung than the older generation. In real terms, people today are better off than their immigrant ancestors. That is why that issue is irrelevant.

The issue here is that those early immigrants had immediate access to opportunity; they got off the boat and found a job because most jobs required manual labor back then; little or not school required, certainly no college. Today, people need to complete more steps to get access to those opportunities; high school -> undergraduate -> grad/professional school. And like Mr. Watters commented, many people choose not to go through that process.

Not to mention, many of the industries of the past are closed off to most of today's entrepreneurs. Want to start a car company today? Either find a niche like Tesla Motors, or good luck competing against GM, Toyota, etc. The opportunities of today are in the Wild Wild West of the Internet.

Edit: I'd like to mention, social mobility is a literal pyramid scam. We would be better off with less social mobility and more (downward) technological mobility.

If we limit the discussion to employment - I (mostly) agree.

However, business is considered to be on-going. Iif a family has built a business and future generations continues to grow that business - it could provide and enable several generations to exceed expectations of the previous generations.

 

[ParticleGrl]

would you agree that the biggest opportunity provided to us by our government is 12 years of free education? The US is far behind most other western countries in completion of that free education and that is almost entirely by personal choice...

Thats interesting data. I wonder if differing social support structures can explain at least some of the discrepancies? Does anyone know?

As an anecdote, a friend of the family had to drop out of high school in order to work to offset the cost of his mother's medical bills. He went back to school a few years later after she had passed away. Does anyone know if there is data about how access to affordable health care correlates with completion of secondary education?

 

[Proton Soup]

education here is not just free, it's generally compulsory, too. I'm not sure why we don't just eliminate the dropout option.

 

[Zarqon]

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=1653

Country: Graduation Rate:
United States: 72%
Finland: 91%
Denmark: 96%
Sweden: 71%

Not sure what Sweden's problem is...

Interesting. Eventhough I didn't check for statistics to back it up right now, the first thing I thought of which Sweden and the US has in common, but not denmark or finland, is High immigration. For the past 20 years or so Sweden has received the highest amount of immigrants per capita in all of europe, last time I checked, and this is much higher than both denmark and finland who both have heavy restrictions on immigration. The lower education completions can be explained not only by the immigrants themselves, but also becaues they tend to cluster up in a few places, which causes higher social unrest at those places. I'm guessing the situation is similar in the US with the hispanic immigration.


(disclaimer, I'm not at all a racist, I just acknowledge that integration of foreign people into a, to their eyes, strange society, is a difficult problem)

 

[azzkika]

I agree, that efforts to restrict legal immigration should be resisted.

The Us should be careful not to copy the UKs policy which has seen many indigenous people become minorities and live in places no longer recognisable as English and where English is a secondary language. Multiculturalism has resulted in the alientaion of the English in their own country and gang and knife culture rocket. you do not want to have many estates having "No white after 8 o'clock" posters on your lamposts and not be able to walk around safely in many parts.

 

[russ_watters]

Thats interesting data. I wonder if differing social support structures can explain at least some of the discrepancies? Does anyone know?

It almost certainly explains almost all of it: kids tend to achieve what their parents achieve. Ie, if the parents didn't finish school, the kids probably won't either.

 

[WhoWee]

education here is not just free, it's generally compulsory, too. I'm not sure why we don't just eliminate the dropout option.

Safety concerns in the school?

 

[vici10]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_States#Over_time_-_by_Race_.26_Sex"

The statement by ParticleGrl was "middle class income has been stagnant." The source I reference speaks directly to that statement, to individual income.

ParticleGirl is not that wrong about the wages being stagnant, even without relation to productivity gains. If one looks at the statistics from "Economic Report of the President" 2010, one can see that from 1979 till 1996 the average hourly earnings were declining. And from 1973 -2009 the wages still were less than in 1972.

The table from the report is bellow.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/economic-report-president.pdf" (Table B-47)

 

[Gokul43201]

Thanks for that link, vici. I've been meaning to look for such data for a while now, but never quite remembered to do it when I was near a computer.

 

[CAC1001]

The middle-class is not stagnant. Incomes per capita have been increasing for decades. Wages are part of incomes, but they are not the sole measure of a person's income. Wages can be stagnant or declining while incomes per capita can continue increasing. Household incomes can be stagnant as well, while incomes per capita continue to increase.

The likely reason for stalled wages is due to the rising cost of healthcare, which is absorbing more and more of a person's income, so even though incomes are increasing, the portion of income going to wages is stalled or declining.

This chart shows incomes per capita from 1990: http://bber.unm.edu/econ/us-pci.htm

 

[ParticleGrl]

The middle-class is not stagnant. Incomes per capita have been increasing for decades.

Per capita income is a useless statistic for this argument. It says nothing about what the middle class takes home. Imagine I live on an island with only one other person, call him Steve. Let's say Steve makes $2 billion a year from off-island investments, and uses his 2 billion to fly in all sorts of food and technology. I, on the other hand, make nothing, and live off Steve's leftovers. In this situation, our per capita income is $1 billion, but it says nothing about the disparity between Steve and myself. In particular, if next year Steve makes $3 billion, our per-capita income is now $1.5 billion. Did your lower class income increase? No, I still made nothing. Per capita income can yell you nothing about individual earning quintiles.

Now, what DOES per-capita income tell you? It tells you about country's standard of living. Even though I make nothing, the presence of Steve means I might have one of this left over computers when he replaces it and throws it out, etc. The standard of living on the island is much higher because of the presence of that wealth.

Wages are part of incomes, but they are not the sole measure of a person's income. Wages can be stagnant or declining while incomes per capita can continue increasing.

In the case of the US, the majority of income growth has come from the upper 10%. Middle class incomes are somewhat stagnant(especially relative to productivity), while the upper class has seen huge growth.

 

[WhoWee]

Per capita income is a useless statistic for this argument. It says nothing about what the middle class takes home. Imagine I live on an island with only one other person, call him Steve. Let's say Steve makes $2 billion a year from off-island investments, and uses his 2 billion to fly in all sorts of food and technology. I, on the other hand, make nothing, and live off Steve's leftovers. In this situation, our per capita income is $1 billion, but it says nothing about the disparity between Steve and myself. In particular, if next year Steve makes $3 billion, our per-capita income is now $1.5 billion. Did your lower class income increase? No, I still made nothing. Per capita income can yell you nothing about individual earning quintiles.

Now, what DOES per-capita income tell you? It tells you about country's standard of living. Even though I make nothing, the presence of Steve means I might have one of this left over computers when he replaces it and throws it out, etc. The standard of living on the island is much higher because of the presence of that wealth.

In the case of the US, the majority of income growth has come from the upper 10%. Middle class incomes are somewhat stagnant(especially relative to productivity), while the upper class has seen huge growth.

I see 2 solutions for you.

1.) Cut Steve's grass, wash his cars, walk his dogs, pilot his boat, cut his hair, cook his food, and any other service Steve needs and is willing to pay the going rate for - which the shortage of labor should increase.

2.) Divorce Steve and take half of his money.

 

[CAC1001]

Per capita income is a useless statistic for this argument. It says nothing about what the middle class takes home. Imagine I live on an island with only one other person, call him Steve. Let's say Steve makes $2 billion a year from off-island investments, and uses his 2 billion to fly in all sorts of food and technology. I, on the other hand, make nothing, and live off Steve's leftovers. In this situation, our per capita income is $1 billion, but it says nothing about the disparity between Steve and myself. In particular, if next year Steve makes $3 billion, our per-capita income is now $1.5 billion. Did your lower class income increase? No, I still made nothing. Per capita income can yell you nothing about individual earning quintiles.

Now, what DOES per-capita income tell you? It tells you about country's standard of living. Even though I make nothing, the presence of Steve means I might have one of this left over computers when he replaces it and throws it out, etc. The standard of living on the island is much higher because of the presence of that wealth.

Yes, if the population consisted of very poor people and very rich people and that was it, with no middle-income earners, then per capita is probably bad to go by. But per capita income is an indicator of the average standard of living of individuals in the country.

Generally, as per capita income increases, the country's standard of living increases, in particular among the middle-income earners considering the standard of living of the average middle-income person today is far higher than it was in the past.

In the case of the US, the majority of income growth has come from the upper 10%. Middle class incomes are somewhat stagnant(especially relative to productivity), while the upper class has seen huge growth.

Remember though that there is no such thing as an "upper-class" or "middle-class" in America, there are just income quintiles, statistical categories. People move into and out of these statistical categories all the time, which makes comparing ratios between them inaccurate.

It is true that the amount and proportion of income earned by those in the top 20% has increased over the years, and thus widened the gap between the bottom quintile and the top quintile, but that is by measuring the statistical categories, not the actual people themselves. The people in the top 20% two decades ago may not be the same people there now, and people in the bottom 20% two decades ago it's the same, many of them are likely in the middle-income and upper quintiles today.

When they say "middle-class incomes are stagnant," all that really means is that the middle quintile, a statistical category, has not shown much gain overall. But the people who were in the middle-quintile two decades ago could be in a higher quintile now, and people who were in a lower quintile could be in a middle quintile now.

 

[ParticleGrl]

Generally, as per capita income increases, the country's standard of living increases, in particular among the middle-income earners considering the standard of living of the average middle-income person today is far higher than it was in the past.

I'm not arguing that per-capita income doesn't relate to standard of living. I'm saying its a useless statistic for arguing whether the incomes for the middle class are stagnant, as all of the gains could be made by the upper class.

America, there are just income quintiles, statistical categories. People move into and out of these statistical categories all the time, which makes comparing ratios between them inaccurate.

Its a good thing people also study short term mobility- http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/04/b1579981.html

Long story short- the upper quintile is experiencing less income security, and hence, is staying in the upper quintile. Meanwhile, the middle quintile are experiencing more income insecurity, and the frequency of large negative shocks is increasing. The good news is that the bottom quintile has a fairly steady rate of upward mobility. All of this leads me to stand by my assertion.

This study was pre-great-recession, I imagine the recent recession hit the middle class fairly hard, but we will probably have to wait a few years for definitive studies.

 

[gravenewworld]

The Feb. monthly meeting of the San Antonio Section of the ACS features a speaker who is a past President of ACS. His topic?

Read it and weep...



Gravenewworld, you are invited. I'll buy.

How depressing. I just found an old ex-coworker from my old company who graduated in 2002 with his BS in chemistry, but left my old company within the first few months that I started there to go on to work for the Philadelphia Water Department. Apparently he is now moving on to his MBA and economics. Yet another stat that fits perfectly into the pie chart link you posted.

 

[ParticleGrl]

It almost certainly explains almost all of it: kids tend to achieve what their parents achieve. Ie, if the parents didn't finish school, the kids probably won't either.

My question was along the lines of welfare type safety nets (I thought my anecdote made that clear?). i.e. does universal health care increase the percentage of kids who finish k-12 type education in a given country. I refuse to believe the US population is simply lazier than the population of other countries, so key differences might be the existence of a stronger welfare state. I honestly I have no idea how to test this hypothesis.

 

[mugaliens]

If you have the ability to find gainful employment suitable to you and your family outside the US, and you're happy with it's long-term prospects, I iwsh you the best! There are opportunities here, for sure, but our world is simply expanding.

Perhaps I should have remained abroad.

 

[BilPrestonEsq]

Sorry if this has already been said but in response to the OP:

In order for free market entities(corporations)to compete for business they have to lower prices.
An easy way to lower prices is to outsource jobs to countries that will work for lower wages.
In order for a company to remain competitive in the market they must follow suit.
This leads to more jobs being outsourced to China, India,etc.
Americans can no longer afford Americans!
This also may have something to do with inflation.
A rapid rise in inflation can cause a need for rapid decreases in prices. Since efficiency for example improves over time, outsourcing can be a quick way to decrease overhead spending so that a company can lower their prices on the goods they provide.
Again to remain competitive in pricing other companies must follow suit.
Inflation is measured by CPI or the Consumer Price Index. This number is obtained through comparing the prices of a 'market basket' of goods and giving them a numerical value.
CPI is not an accurate measurement of inflation IMO as prices of goods may fall due to free market competition.
Inflation causes prices to rise as inflation is the result of 'currency dilution'.
The free market makes up for these rises in prices by lowering the price of their goods
through improvements in efficiency, technology etc. and outsourcing jobs to workers willing to work for less.
So IMO employment is not going to improve without the influx of new money(bailouts,'stimulus' money) to keep businesses afloat through consumer spending. And of course the influx of new money also creates an equal rise in inflation which only adds to the initial problem.

 

[symbolipoint]

Sorry if this has already been said but in response to the OP:

In order for free market entities(corporations)to compete for business they have to lower prices.
An easy way to lower prices is to outsource jobs to countries that will work for lower wages.
In order for a company to remain competitive in the market they must follow suit.
This leads to more jobs being outsourced to China, India,etc.
Americans can no longer afford Americans!
This also may have something to do with inflation.
A rapid rise in inflation can cause a need for rapid decreases in prices. Since efficiency for example improves over time, outsourcing can be a quick way to decrease overhead spending so that a company can lower their prices on the goods they provide.
Again to remain competitive in pricing other companies must follow suit.
Inflation is measured by CPI or the Consumer Price Index. This number is obtained through comparing the prices of a 'market basket' of goods and giving them a numerical value.
CPI is not an accurate measurement of inflation IMO as prices of goods may fall due to free market competition.
Inflation causes prices to rise as inflation is the result of 'currency dilution'.
The free market makes up for these rises in prices by lowering the price of their goods
through improvements in efficiency, technology etc. and outsourcing jobs to workers willing to work for less.
So IMO employment is not going to improve without the influx of new money(bailouts,'stimulus' money) to keep businesses afloat through consumer spending. And of course the influx of new money also creates an equal rise in inflation which only adds to the initial problem.

Yah, yah, yah, yah.
What is who invensting in? That outsourcing seems like a way to avoid investing in capital and people in the U.S.

 

[CAC1001]

I'm not arguing that per-capita income doesn't relate to standard of living. I'm saying its a useless statistic for arguing whether the incomes for the middle class are stagnant, as all of the gains could be made by the upper class.

The middle income quintile hasn't seen as many gains, but that is totally different than a term such as "the middle class." Upper-quintile also doesn't mean "upper-class." Because the middle quintile hasn't seen many gains doesn't mean that the people in said quintile have not seen gains. Many of these gains made by the "upper-class" can actually be people moving out of the middle quintile and into the upper quintile. But as people move out of a lower quintile and into the middle quintile as well, the statistical category can remain unchanged, while the upper quintile ends up "gaining."

Its a good thing people also study short term mobility- http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/04/b1579981.html

Not saying the study is wrong, but always be wary of the source. The Center for American Progress is a center-left organization funded in part by George Soros. It would be like citing the Cato Institute for a study on whether NAFTA was good or not.

Long story short- the upper quintile is experiencing less income security, and hence, is staying in the upper quintile. Meanwhile, the middle quintile are experiencing more income insecurity,

Wouldn't "less income security" and "more income insecurity" be the same thing...?

and the frequency of large negative shocks is increasing. The good news is that the bottom quintile has a fairly steady rate of upward mobility. All of this leads me to stand by my assertion.

Changes in the quintiles doesn't mean changes in the people within the quintiles though. For example, the bottom quintiles making gains doesn't mean a permanent, fixed group or class of poor people are making gains, as people move into and out of them constantly. It just means that as a category, that quintile is seeing improvement.

 

[CAC1001]

My question was along the lines of welfare type safety nets (I thought my anecdote made that clear?). i.e. does universal health care increase the percentage of kids who finish k-12 type education in a given country. I refuse to believe the US population is simply lazier than the population of other countries, so key differences might be the existence of a stronger welfare state. I honestly I have no idea how to test this hypothesis.

One thing maybe to look at is graduationg rates in the big U.S. cities, in the poor areas. Most of the population resides in the cities I believe, and it wouldn't be surprising if the areas with the worst graduation rates are the inner-city schools.

 

[PhilKravitz]

One thing maybe to look at is graduationg rates in the big U.S. cities, in the poor areas. Most of the population resides in the cities I believe, and it wouldn't be surprising if the areas with the worst graduation rates are the inner-city schools.

Low graduation rate correlate with low income. Both the urban poor and the rural poor have low graduation rates.

I do not know the relative number of urban poor versus rural poor.

Of course correlation is not causation. Could be being poor makes one drop out. Could be being stupid makes one poor and makes one drop out.

 

[George Jones]

It almost certainly explains almost all of it: kids tend to achieve what their parents achieve. Ie, if the parents didn't finish school, the kids probably won't either.

My question was along the lines of welfare type safety nets (I thought my anecdote made that clear?). i.e. does universal health care increase the percentage of kids who finish k-12 type education in a given country. I refuse to believe the US population is simply lazier than the population of other countries, so key differences might be the existence of a stronger welfare state. I honestly I have no idea how to test this hypothesis.

I know a Canadian counterexample, someone whose parents both stop attending school at the the end of grade eight, but who got a Ph.D. The Canadian social safety net was very important in this case.

 

[BilPrestonEsq]

Yah, yah, yah, yah.
What is who invensting in? That outsourcing seems like a way to avoid investing in capital and people in the U.S.

Yah, yah, yah, yah.

What is who investing in?

What?

That outsourcing seems like a way to avoid investing in capital and people in the U.S.

Sure is!

 

[GRB 080319B]

Let's face reality here, many, many of these jobs are never coming back, they are all now in China and India.

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2009/jul/21/will-manufacturing-return-america/"

Definitely not in the manufacturing sector of the US economy. The 90's-era delusion that the US would be able to perpetuate its industrial-era growth as a purely service-based economy fueled by information technology has been dispelled. Emerging markets have taken over the primary and secondary sectors of the US economy in the interim, and the service and information sectors are soon to follow. China has become the manufacturing floor of the world, and will soon be the leading technological innovator due to increased R&D and forced technology transfer. Developed countries will see a drop in their standard of living as the emerging markets grow and the global economy adjusts to a new equilibrium.

 

[mheslep]

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2009/jul/21/will-manufacturing-return-america/"

Definitely not in the manufacturing sector of the US economy. The 90's-era delusion that the US would be able to perpetuate its industrial-era growth as a purely service-based economy fueled by information technology has been dispelled. Emerging markets have taken over the primary and secondary sectors of the US economy in the interim, and the service and information sectors are soon to follow. China has become the manufacturing floor of the world, and will soon be the leading technological innovator due to increased R&D and forced technology transfer. Developed countries will see a drop in their standard of living as the emerging markets grow and the global economy adjusts to a new equilibrium.

Why must that be so?

 

[Proton Soup]

Why must that be so?

not sure. Germany seems to know how to do manufacturing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/business/global/25euecon.html

 

[BilPrestonEsq]

Why must that be so?

I think I explained it in post 174. That unfornutately is the problem. Until Americans are willing to pay higher prices for American goods it is only going to get worse. Too bad American made goods are only going to get more expensive.

 

[WhoWee]

I would think anyone engaged in R&D professionally (in the US) would have some ideas on how to reinvigorate manufacturing in the US? Is all hope lost? Is the "green" economy the only solution?

 

[mheslep]

not sure. Germany seems to know how to do manufacturing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/business/global/25euecon.html

Well keep in mind US mfn output is still the largest.
http://www.bullfax.com/imgs/d2568fadd35557e6a7020da29f148e4f5842729a.jpg

 

[mheslep]

I think I explained it in post 174.

I didn't see any consideration there of regulations, business taxes, cost of energy, union work rules, etc that we see, for instance, as commonly cited reasons by businesses for leaving California or Michigan.

 

[CAC1001]

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2009/jul/21/will-manufacturing-return-america/"

Definitely not in the manufacturing sector of the US economy. The 90's-era delusion that the US would be able to perpetuate its industrial-era growth as a purely service-based economy fueled by information technology has been dispelled. Emerging markets have taken over the primary and secondary sectors of the US economy in the interim, and the service and information sectors are soon to follow. China has become the manufacturing floor of the world, and will soon be the leading technological innovator due to increased R&D and forced technology transfer. Developed countries will see a drop in their standard of living as the emerging markets grow and the global economy adjusts to a new equilibrium.

America manufactures more than any other country in the world right now. We are not a "purely service-based" economy and China is not the "manufacturing floor of the world." Even if/when China overtakes the U.S. in manufacturing, the U.S. STILL will remain one of the major global manufacturing powers.

As for services, manufacturing is not a panacea. China's economy primarily consists of manufacturing things for foreign companies (foreign to them) and construction. They have virtually no service sector.

And what do you base it on that China will anytime soon become the leading technological innovator? American research universities are the fienst in the world. The Chinese can't even design and build a jet engine on their own. Their military aircraft have to rely on Russian jet engines right now.

 

[CAC1001]

I would think anyone engaged in R&D professionally (in the US) would have some ideas on how to reinvigorate manufacturing in the US? Is all hope lost? Is the "green" economy the only solution?

American manufacturing is very vigorous. It runs into some occassional hard times, but overall, it continues to grow and become more productive year after year. I don't know where that whole "America doesn't make anything more" myth ever got started from.

 

[Vanadium 50]

There will be manufacturing in America for a long time to come.

What there will not be is a guarantee that with a high school diploma, everyone is guaranteed a well-paying manufacturing position doing exactly the same thing for the rest of their lives.

 

[nismaratwork]

American manufacturing is very vigorous. It runs into some occassional hard times, but overall, it continues to grow and become more productive year after year. I don't know where that whole "America doesn't make anything more" myth ever got started from.

Trade Groups, Unions, Politicians...

Iacoca
UAW
I find it hard to think of a politician who's been around who DOESN'T sell this line.

So, basically it's fed to people on every level, and during times of economic turmoil, and every time an Asian country starts to manufacture (Japan, Taiwan, China, Indonesia...) in a competitive fashion (fair or unfair)... the US calls "doomsday".

Really, there's more to back up these kinds of fears than most political props, such as "the threat of tyranny", or anything else Glenn Beck has ever said or thought.

So... why the surprise?

 

[AlephZero]

Low graduation rate correlate with low income. Both the urban poor and the rural poor have low graduation rates.

I do not know the relative number of urban poor versus rural poor.

Of course correlation is not causation. Could be being poor makes one drop out. Could be being stupid makes one poor and makes one drop out.

The UK experience is not quite that simple. One problem is that the urban poor tend to live in "poor neighbourhoods" which have schools with no "culture" of academic achievement. Not surprisingly, good teachers do not often apply for jobs at these schools by choice, so the cycle continues.

The rural poor are more likely to find themselves in a school with a wide cultural mix, and there are many schools in provincial towns in the UK with histories going back 300 or 400 years to some local benfactor, and strong academic traditions, despite the best attempts by national government to impose an "education strategy" that reduces them all to the same level of mediocrity.

The outcomes for poor kids also depends very much on the cultural background of the kids. Without intending to stereotype anybody, newly arrived middle eastern and asian immigrant families are often obsessive about the value of education even if the parents are functionally illiterate in English. (The better-off asians are usually even more obsessive about education than the poor.) At the other end of the spectrum, afro-carribeans (especially the boys) just want to have fun and make lots of money (not necessarily legally).

One of my friends has given up a "nice" teaching job in a mainly middle class village school and moved to an inner city school where the majority of the kids are asian, because there is more job satisfaction teaching kids who actually want to learn something - even if many of them start off knowing nothing except a handful of words of English.

 

[nismaratwork]

The UK experience is not quite that simple. One problem is that the urban poor tend to live in "poor neighbourhoods" which have schools with no "culture" of academic achievement. Not surprisingly, good teachers do not often apply for jobs at these schools by choice, so the cycle continues.

The rural poor are more likely to find themselves in a school with a wide cultural mix, and there are many schools in provincial towns in the UK with histories going back 300 or 400 years to some local benfactor, and strong academic traditions, despite the best attempts by national government to impose an "education strategy" that reduces them all to the same level of mediocrity.

The outcomes for poor kids also depends very much on the cultural background of the kids. Without intending to stereotype anybody, newly arrived middle eastern and asian immigrant families are often obsessive about the value of education even if the parents are functionally illiterate in English. (The better-off asians are usually even more obsessive about education than the poor.) At the other end of the spectrum, afro-carribeans (especially the boys) just want to have fun and make lots of money (not necessarily legally).

One of my friends has given up a "nice" teaching job in a mainly middle class village school and moved to an inner city school where the majority of the kids are asian, because there is more job satisfaction teaching kids who actually want to learn something - even if many of them start off knowing nothing except a handful of words of English.

That sounds like the descriptions of going through the USA public (freely available) school system, but I guess I'm not the guy to ask that.

 

[Zarqon]

American manufacturing is very vigorous. It runs into some occassional hard times, but overall, it continues to grow and become more productive year after year. I don't know where that whole "America doesn't make anything more" myth ever got started from.

Well, it's of course clear that not all manufacturing is leaving the US, but rather that the trend of manufacturing jobs moving outside of the US may be the difference between 5% unemployment and 10-15%.

Also, remember that even though productivity may go up as you say, it doesn't necessarily mean that the number of jobs available will go up. A part of the increase is always because of technological advances in manufacturing methods (the development of which requires fewer people than the job they replace) as well as increased automatization. In general, I consider better methods and automatization a positive thing, even though it leads to fewer jobs. Thus, I think an important part of organizing our future society is coming up with a model that works just fine even with a substantial mount of people not working ("unemployed").

 

[nismaratwork]

Well, it's of course clear that not all manufacturing is leaving the US, but rather that the trend of manufacturing jobs moving outside of the US may be the difference between 5% unemployment and 10-15%.

Also, remember that even though productivity may go up as you say, it doesn't necessarily mean that the number of jobs available will go up. A part of the increase is always because of technological advances in manufacturing methods (the development of which requires fewer people than the job they replace) as well as increased automatization. In general, I consider better methods and automatization a positive thing, even though it leads to fewer jobs. Thus, I think an important part of organizing our future society is coming up with a model that works just fine even with a substantial mount of people not working ("unemployed").

Oooh! Oooh! I have it!

People should stop breeding so damned much, and maybe there would be some balance between jobs and job-seekers.

 

[CAC1001]

Well, it's of course clear that not all manufacturing is leaving the US, but rather that the trend of manufacturing jobs moving outside of the US may be the difference between 5% unemployment and 10-15%.

Also, remember that even though productivity may go up as you say, it doesn't necessarily mean that the number of jobs available will go up. A part of the increase is always because of technological advances in manufacturing methods (the development of which requires fewer people than the job they replace) as well as increased automatization. In general, I consider better methods and automatization a positive thing, even though it leads to fewer jobs. Thus, I think an important part of organizing our future society is coming up with a model that works just fine even with a substantial mount of people not working ("unemployed").

Yes, manufacturing jobs go down as productivity in manufacturing increases. Same happened with agriculture. We grow more food today than ever before, but use far fewer people. That doesn't mean that overall job creation in the economy goes down. Automation and further productivity in manufacturing frees up people to do other work that they wouldn't be available to do if they were tied up in manufacturing.

 

[nismaratwork]

Yes, manufacturing jobs go down as productivity in manufacturing increases. Same happened with agriculture. We grow more food today than ever before, but use far fewer people. That doesn't mean that overall job creation in the economy goes down. Automation and further productivity in manufacturing frees up people to do other work that they wouldn't be available to do if they were tied up in manufacturing.

Not to mention that automation requires service... you're shifting a lot of the same skills from manufacture to maintenance. Otherwise... yeah... the alternative is to return to a far more primitive way of life.

 

[Averagesupernova]

Same happened with agriculture. We grow more food today than ever before, but use far fewer people.

Ummm, not really. If the American farmers just up and quit do you really think just that small percent of the American population would end up out of work? Farmers rely on external inputs more and more every year. The days of living off the land, so to speak, are long gone. There are a lot of the people that used to live and work on farms who have moved to cities are working in industries that are providing a significant amount of support to those who are doing the actual growing of our food.

 

[CAC1001]

Ummm, not really. If the American farmers just up and quit do you really think just that small percent of the American population would end up out of work? Farmers rely on external inputs more and more every year. The days of living off the land, so to speak, are long gone. There are a lot of the people that used to live and work on farms who have moved to cities are working in industries that are providing a significant amount of support to those who are doing the actual growing of our food.

My point was we do not need the vast majority of the population employed in agriculture anymore.

 

[Averagesupernova]

Whatever you 'meant' was not really what you said. You claim we grow a lot more food, which is true, with far fewer people, which isn't completely true. See my previous post. 'Nuff said, I feel it is impossible for me to make this any clearer.