MHB IGCSE Probability Question [ either / or ]

  • Thread starter Thread starter shoshuban
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Igcse Probability
shoshuban
Messages
3
Reaction score
0
Captain Ahab sails The Laertes along the south coast of Madeira. On any day, the probability of him seeing a dolphin is 9/10 , the probability of him seeing a whale is 2/3 and the probability of him seeing a turtle is 1/5.
Q. Calculate the probability that on any day Captain Ahab will see either a dolphin or a whale.

The answer, according to the mark scheme, is 29/30.

Weirdly, if we add the three probabilities, it shows a value more than 1 ! ( 9/10 + 2/3 + 1/5 = 53/30 ! )

I have tried doing this. Trial 1 :
P( dolphin or whale) = 9/10 + 2/3 = 47/30, which is obviously not correct.

Trial 2:
P [(dolphin and no whale) or (whale and no dolphin)]
= (9/10 x 1/3) + ( 2/3 x 1/10 ) = 11/30 ( which doesn't agree with the mark scheme )

The methods shown in the mark scheme is :
Method 1 -> ( 9/10 x 1/3 ) + 2/3 = 29/30.
Method 2 -> 1-(1/10 x 1/3) = 29/30

Please explain me what's happening here.
1) Why is the total probability more than one in the first place
2) how do the mark scheme methods make sense?
3) What was I doing wrong in my Trial 2?
 
Mathematics news on Phys.org
To explain why the 2 probabilities simply added is more than 1, let's look at a Venn Diagram:

View attachment 5014

The probability we want is the sum of the 3 colored areas. If we add the probabilities represented by the two circles, we are adding the green area twice, which represents the probability of seeing both a whale and a dolphin, so we need to subtract it out:

$$P(X)=\frac{9}{10}+\frac{2}{3}-\frac{9}{10}\cdot\frac{2}{3}=\frac{9}{10}\left(1-\frac{2}{3}\right)+\frac{2}{3}=\frac{9}{10}\cdot\frac{1}{3}+\frac{2}{3}=\frac{29}{30}$$

This was the first method used on the marking scheme.

The second method relies on the fact that it is certain either a dolphin or a whale will be spotted OR neither will be spotted, which we may state as:

$$P(X)+\frac{1}{10}\cdot\frac{1}{3}=1$$

Solving for $P(X)$, we then obtain:

$$P(X)=\frac{29}{30}$$
 

Attachments

  • dolphinwhale.png
    dolphinwhale.png
    1,005 bytes · Views: 109
Insights auto threads is broken atm, so I'm manually creating these for new Insight articles. In Dirac’s Principles of Quantum Mechanics published in 1930 he introduced a “convenient notation” he referred to as a “delta function” which he treated as a continuum analog to the discrete Kronecker delta. The Kronecker delta is simply the indexed components of the identity operator in matrix algebra Source: https://www.physicsforums.com/insights/what-exactly-is-diracs-delta-function/ by...
Fermat's Last Theorem has long been one of the most famous mathematical problems, and is now one of the most famous theorems. It simply states that the equation $$ a^n+b^n=c^n $$ has no solutions with positive integers if ##n>2.## It was named after Pierre de Fermat (1607-1665). The problem itself stems from the book Arithmetica by Diophantus of Alexandria. It gained popularity because Fermat noted in his copy "Cubum autem in duos cubos, aut quadratoquadratum in duos quadratoquadratos, et...
Thread 'Imaginary Pythagorus'
I posted this in the Lame Math thread, but it's got me thinking. Is there any validity to this? Or is it really just a mathematical trick? Naively, I see that i2 + plus 12 does equal zero2. But does this have a meaning? I know one can treat the imaginary number line as just another axis like the reals, but does that mean this does represent a triangle in the complex plane with a hypotenuse of length zero? Ibix offered a rendering of the diagram using what I assume is matrix* notation...
Back
Top