IGCSE Probability Question [ either / or ]

In summary: Note that for your trial 2, you were subtracting out the red area twice instead of the green area, which would give us:P(X)=\frac{9}{10}\left(1-\frac{1}{3}\right)+\frac{2}{3}=\frac{9}{10}\cdot\frac{2}{3}+\frac{2}{3}=\frac{38}{30}\neq\frac{29}{30}.Therefore, the mark scheme methods are correct and make sense in terms of the Venn Diagram representation.
  • #1
shoshuban
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Captain Ahab sails The Laertes along the south coast of Madeira. On any day, the probability of him seeing a dolphin is 9/10 , the probability of him seeing a whale is 2/3 and the probability of him seeing a turtle is 1/5.
Q. Calculate the probability that on any day Captain Ahab will see either a dolphin or a whale.

The answer, according to the mark scheme, is 29/30.

Weirdly, if we add the three probabilities, it shows a value more than 1 ! ( 9/10 + 2/3 + 1/5 = 53/30 ! )

I have tried doing this. Trial 1 :
P( dolphin or whale) = 9/10 + 2/3 = 47/30, which is obviously not correct.

Trial 2:
P [(dolphin and no whale) or (whale and no dolphin)]
= (9/10 x 1/3) + ( 2/3 x 1/10 ) = 11/30 ( which doesn't agree with the mark scheme )

The methods shown in the mark scheme is :
Method 1 -> ( 9/10 x 1/3 ) + 2/3 = 29/30.
Method 2 -> 1-(1/10 x 1/3) = 29/30

Please explain me what's happening here.
1) Why is the total probability more than one in the first place
2) how do the mark scheme methods make sense?
3) What was I doing wrong in my Trial 2?
 
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  • #2
To explain why the 2 probabilities simply added is more than 1, let's look at a Venn Diagram:

View attachment 5014

The probability we want is the sum of the 3 colored areas. If we add the probabilities represented by the two circles, we are adding the green area twice, which represents the probability of seeing both a whale and a dolphin, so we need to subtract it out:

\(\displaystyle P(X)=\frac{9}{10}+\frac{2}{3}-\frac{9}{10}\cdot\frac{2}{3}=\frac{9}{10}\left(1-\frac{2}{3}\right)+\frac{2}{3}=\frac{9}{10}\cdot\frac{1}{3}+\frac{2}{3}=\frac{29}{30}\)

This was the first method used on the marking scheme.

The second method relies on the fact that it is certain either a dolphin or a whale will be spotted OR neither will be spotted, which we may state as:

\(\displaystyle P(X)+\frac{1}{10}\cdot\frac{1}{3}=1\)

Solving for $P(X)$, we then obtain:

\(\displaystyle P(X)=\frac{29}{30}\)
 

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1. What is the difference between independent and dependent events?

Independent events are events where the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the other event. On the other hand, dependent events are events where the outcome of one event does affect the outcome of the other event.

2. How do I determine the probability of an "either/or" event?

To determine the probability of an "either/or" event, you need to add the individual probabilities of each event together. For example, if the probability of event A is 0.6 and the probability of event B is 0.4, the probability of either event A or event B occurring is 0.6 + 0.4 = 1.

3. Can an "either/or" event have a probability of more than 1?

No, the probability of any event cannot exceed 1. This is because the probability of an event represents the likelihood of that event occurring, and it cannot be more than 100%.

4. How do I calculate the probability of an "either/or" event if the events are not equally likely?

If the events are not equally likely, you will need to assign different probabilities to each event and then add them together to get the probability of the "either/or" event occurring. For example, if the probability of event A is 0.7 and the probability of event B is 0.3, the probability of either event A or event B occurring is 0.7 + 0.3 = 1.

5. Can the probability of an "either/or" event be calculated using a tree diagram?

Yes, a tree diagram can be used to calculate the probability of an "either/or" event. The branches of the tree represent the different outcomes of the events, and the probabilities can be calculated by multiplying the probabilities along each branch and then adding them together.

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