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Ike is heading for the Gulf of Mexico

  1. Sep 5, 2008 #1

    Ivan Seeking

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  2. jcsd
  3. Sep 5, 2008 #2

    Math Is Hard

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    My Dad (near the Texas coast) took the boards down that he nailed up the house with for Gustav. The way it's going, he might as well have left the boards up through November.
     
  4. Sep 5, 2008 #3

    turbo

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    Holy crap! If that projected track is anywhere near accurate, there is some trouble brewing. A well-formed hurricane moving from the cooler Atlantic into the warm Gulf can turn into a monster. Let's hope this doesn't come true.
     
  5. Sep 5, 2008 #4

    Ivan Seeking

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    One European model goes way out on a limb and has it hitting Mobile, Alabama, but apparently most models show it entering the gulf.

    Yes, this looks pretty dangerous. Note how it jumps up to a Cat 4.
     
  6. Sep 5, 2008 #5

    LowlyPion

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    Right now Cuba and the Keys look to be in for a rough go of it by Monday afternoon.

    Current jet streams look like Ike will begin to be steered northward more by then suggesting Florida panhandle landfall. But then I thought Gustav would end up east of New Orleans. So...

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx

    Whatever the situation let's hope it gives up some of its energy by then.
     
  7. Sep 5, 2008 #6

    Evo

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    It's no longer a Cat 4 , it's been downgraded to a Cat 3 and projections (which this far off means little) is that it's headed for S Florida.
     
  8. Sep 5, 2008 #7

    Ivan Seeking

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    Do you mean that it is projected to not make Cat 4? Right now the map shows it as a Cat 3. .
     
  9. Sep 5, 2008 #8

    Evo

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    Right now it is Cat 3, there is no telling what it will end up as.
     
  10. Sep 5, 2008 #9

    Astronuc

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    As Ike moves toward and over Cuba is will probably lose some energy, but it could pick up again when it moves into the Gulf.

    Gustav was supposed to strengthen as it moved across the Gulf, but it didn't strengthen as much as NHC thought it would.

    Ike was a Cat 4 then lost some energy to become a Cat 3. If it hugs Floridas western coast, it may not strengthen too much it at all in the Gulf.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204613.shtml?5day#contents (on Sept 05, 2008 - the information with this link will be updated several times each day)

    As of today, it looks like it would hit somewhere between Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2008
  11. Sep 5, 2008 #10

    russ_watters

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    The "discussion" section of that nhc link is where they have all the good junk on the predictions. The intensity forecasts are touger even than the track, so we'll have to wait and see, but the projections are for it to enter the gulf as a major hurricane after a slight weakening over the next day:

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
    12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
    24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
    36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
    48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
    72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
    96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
    120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

    Cat 5 is > 136 kt (155 mph), Cat 4 is 115-135 kt (131 - 154 mph).
     
  12. Sep 5, 2008 #11

    Moonbear

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    The projections I've seen on the TV news show it dropping down to a Cat 2 before landfall. But, these things are never perfect, so who knows until it actually gets there.
     
  13. Sep 5, 2008 #12

    turbo

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    thanks, Russ. We'll have to see where it ends up.

    PS. don't do more than putts and chip shots for a week or so. Good luck!!
     
  14. Sep 5, 2008 #13

    russ_watters

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    Well with Hanna here for the weekend, there won't be any temptation until next week, but I'm itching to get back to it. I suspect I'll try to hit the driving range next weekend.
     
  15. Sep 5, 2008 #14

    turbo

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    Swing easy, upper body only, and sweep through. Gentle constant application of force = club-head speed. It's true.
     
  16. Sep 5, 2008 #15

    LowlyPion

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    I found this table on IKE projections for wind there:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204613.shtml?table?large#contents

    The probabilities add a different feel to the numbers, because as you say I think this calculation just must be more inexact from their models.
     
  17. Sep 5, 2008 #16

    Astronuc

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    So from the table posted by Russ, the predictions indicate Ike could hit Cat 4 before the hits land - assuming it stays on the projected track.
     
  18. Sep 5, 2008 #17

    russ_watters

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    Well, if it stays on the current track, landfall is well outside of the prediction's time range. Presumably, though, the warm waters of the gulf would do little to sap its strength.
     
  19. Sep 5, 2008 #18

    Evo

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    On the news they said landfall looks like it may be the southern tip of Florida, but hurricanes are known to move around erratically even after a landfall. It could hit Florida, then either head into the Atlantic or back into the Gulf.
     
  20. Sep 6, 2008 #19

    Astronuc

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    Right now the five day projection has Ike passing along the northern coast of Cuba.

    Here is the history of Cat 3+ hurricanes passing withing 200 miles of Ike's present position.
    http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_climo.gif
    In the past, they usually turn north, some heading up the Atlantic Coast

    Comparison of models with Ike's track (Sep 4)
    http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at200809_verify.gif
    Animations of models from Sep 1-4
    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_verify.html#a_topad


    For comparison, here is Katria's and Rita's histories
    Katrina - http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200511.asp
    http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2005_charts_zoom/at200511.gif

    Rita - http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200517.asp
    http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2005_charts_zoom/at200517.gif
     
  21. Sep 6, 2008 #20

    LowlyPion

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