Ike is heading for the Gulf of Mexico

[lisab]

I'm scared. My family is evacuating, but if a cat 4 hits Galveston I don't think they will have a house to go back to.

geez - look at this thing:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

Wow, that's amazing. Good thing we have satellites...now that we see them coming, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Hurricane_of_1900" won't happen again - the 1900 Galveston Hurricane.

 

[Math Is Hard]

Wow, that's amazing. Good thing we have satellites...now that we see them coming, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Hurricane_of_1900" won't happen again - the 1900 Galveston Hurricane.

yeah, that was incredibly sad.

 

[D H]

I hope it hits Corpus Christi, my mom can't handle having anymore trees fall on her house.

I don't want any trees falling on my house!

I just boarded up the windows (some of them at least; I've got one more day ...).

 

[tribdog]

yeah, that was incredibly sad.

hate to go through it again?

 

[D H]

BTW, this site is awesome: http://www.stormpulse.com.

 

[LowlyPion]

I'm scared. My family is evacuating, but if a cat 4 hits Galveston I don't think they will have a house to go back to.

geez - look at this thing:

Rita was pretty severe, though it did hit to the East.

I'm sure Galveston will be hit hard, but I should hope it will survive.

The coast between Port LaVaca on up is a bit low lying, but not nearly as populated as either north or south of there. So maybe if it has to hit somewhere that won't be so bad as coming on the lower Galveston Island.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Direct hit or not, they are talking about a twenty foot storm surge.

Good luck to MIH and her family, Evo, DH, and anyone else affected by this. Hopefully you or your familes will all stay clear of the worst of this.

 

[Astronuc]

If kept on present track, Ike would pass over Corpus Cristi and Houston and Galveston will get the NE quadrant of the storm. That could be nasty. My sister's family has a house down near Galveston on the backside near the causeway, but they live in Houston near my parents and sister-in-law.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

 

[Math Is Hard]

Just talked to the folks and they are leaving now. Mom said the gas stations have run out of gas, so I'm glad they were prepared.

 

[wolram]

Hope the storm does not damage your folks place MIH, or any ones place, may be every one will be lucky.

 

[Astronuc]

At 4 am cdt...0900 utc...

ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
A general west-northwestward motion over the central and western
gulf of mexico is expected today (th) and friday. On this track the
center will be approaching the northwestern fulf of mexico coast
late friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson
scale...and it could intensify into a category three hurricane over
the next day or two.

Ike is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 115 miles...185 km...from the center...and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 255 miles...410 km.

 

[Andre]

There he goes:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809.html#a_topad

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_radar.html#a_topad

MiH and Evo, crossing fingers for your parents.

 

[Astronuc]

Ike reminds me somewhat of Hurricane Beulah (1967).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beulah

We got a fair amont of flooding from that, but our house was high enough that only the streets flooded.

New construction in Houston relies houses built on slabs just above street level. That's why many homes flood as badly as they do in areas surrounding Houston. In addition, most construction uses less expensive soft woods without the necessary reinforcements for high wind.

 

[LowlyPion]

Ike reminds me somewhat of Hurricane Beulah (1967).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beulah

We got a fair amont of flooding from that, but our house was high enough that only the streets flooded.

New construction in Houston relies houses built on slabs just above street level. That's why many homes flood as badly as they do in areas surrounding Houston. In addition, most construction uses less expensive soft woods without the necessary reinforcements for high wind.

More than wind damage a slow mover could dump enough water to, if not breach Addicks/Barker to the west, at least make it a fairly uncomfortable runoff situation. The storm ditches there are mostly adequate for most storms, but I have some doubts about what their real limits may be for a real quencher that would stall.

 

[Astronuc]

More than wind damage a slow mover could dump enough water to, if not breach Addicks/Barker to the west, at least make it a fairly uncomfortable runoff situation. The storm ditches there are mostly adequate for most storms, but I have some doubts about what their real limits may be for a real quencher that would stall.

There are lots of subdivisions in those flat areas - that have been described as 100-year flood plain. But those areas have flooded significantly - about once every 10 years or less.

 

[D H]

There are lots of subdivisions in those flat areas - that have been described at 100-year flood plain. But those areas have flooded significantly - about once every 10 years or less.

There's something amiss with the concept of the 100-year flood plain. I've been through two of those 100-year floods. I paddled my canoe around the block in one of them. I might be an old fart, but I'm not 100.

It is *hot* today. I ran out of some essential equipment while boarding up the house -- beer. The grocery store was mobbed, including a lot of people from Galveston. It's supposedly a multi-hour drive from Galveston to Houston right now.

 

[Evo]

There's something amiss with the concept of the 100-year flood plain. I've been through two of those 100-year floods. I paddled my canoe around the block in one of them. I might be an old fart, but I'm not 100.

It is *hot* today. I ran out of some essential equipment while boarding up the house -- beer. The grocery store was mobbed, including a lot of people from Galveston. It's supposedly a multi-hour drive from Galveston to Houston right now.

I used to live in Houston. LOTS of flooding.

 

[Astronuc]

I used to live in Houston. LOTS of flooding.

Tell me about it. My parents' old house used to get water lapping at the front door, especially when some idiot decided to go for a joy ride in his jacked-up SUV.

Back when I was a plumbers helper, I did a lot of recovery and repair work in flooded basements (~ 1976).

 

[tribdog]

Tell me about it. My parents' old house used to get water lapping at the front door, especially when some idiot decided to go for a joy ride in his jacked-up SUV.

Back when I was a plumbers helper, I did a lot of recovery and repair work in flooded basements (~ 1976).

I thought a plumbers helper was a plunger. Say you were an assistant plumber, or a plumber jr.

 

[Astronuc]

I thought a plumbers helper was a plunger. Say you were an assistant plumber, or a plumber jr.

Plumbers assistant. But I ended up rebuilding pumps, motors, compressors, A/C air handlers and duct work, as well as installing supply and drain piping, and steam/condensate pipes. And I replaced and repaired sinks, toilets and showers.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

They are now targeting the Galveston and Houston area. The Galveston shipping channel is considered the bulls eye, which is apparently very bad news.

They have now derated the stort to a Cat 3 again, which helps just a wee bit.

The Governer was saying that a worst case scenario is a Cat 5 hitting the shipping channel. Were there no evacuations, the models predicts 1.5 million dead.

 

[tribdog]

The Governer was saying that a worst case scenario is a Cat 5 hitting the shipping channel. Were there no evacuations, the models predicts 1.5 million dead.

I thought Galveston was in Texas, not Bangladesh. Are we becoming a third world country?

 

[Astronuc]

They are now targeting the Galveston and Houston area. The Galveston shipping channel is considered the bulls eye, which is apparently very bad news.

They have now derated the stort to a Cat 3 again, which helps just a wee bit.

The Governer was saying that a worst case scenario is a Cat 5 hitting the shipping channel. Were there no evacuations, the models predicts 1.5 million dead.

Ike was Cat 1 when it left Cuba and strengthened only slightly. It might get to Cat 3 by the time the eye hits the Texas shore, which now looks like that will be down around Freeport, with Galveston and the ship channel getting the high surge and winds on the NE side of the eye. Galveston will get it pretty hard.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200809.asp#a_topad
At the moment - they have Ike's maximum winds at 145 mph and pressure dropped to 935 mb, NOAA/NHC has the sustained winds still at 100 mph (at 4 pm CDT), which is still Cat 2. The lower pressure means the storm has strengthened a little.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ike was Cat 1 when it left Cuba and strengthened only slightly. It might get to Cat 3 by the time the eye hits the Texas shore, which now looks like that will be down around Freeport, with Galveston and the ship channel getting the high surge and winds on the NE side of the eye. Galveston will get it pretty hard.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200809.asp#a_topad
At the moment - they have Ike's maximum winds at 145 mph and pressure dropped to 935 mb, NOAA/NHC has the sustained winds still at 100 mph (at 4 pm CDT), which is still Cat 2. The lower pressure means the storm has strengthened a little.

Yes, I should have said that the predicted strength when it hits land is currently a Cat 3, which is down from the Cat 4 prediction yesterday.

I had forgotten how warm the water is in the gulf. It looks like the water is about 85 degrees F right now. WOW!

 

[Math Is Hard]

Shoo, shoo! Go away, Ike!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

(CNN) -- Residents living in single-family homes in some parts of coastal Texas face "certain death" if they do not heed orders to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival, the National Weather Service said Thursday night.

The unusually strong wording came in a weather advisory regarding storm surge along the shoreline of Galveston Bay, which could see maximum water levels of 15 to 22 feet, the agency said.

"All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide," the advisory said. "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes will face certain death. [continued]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/11/hurricane.ike.texas/index.html

 

[hypatia]

Its just gigantic, I hope people heed the warnings.

 

[Astronuc]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200809.asp#a_topad
At the moment - they have Ike's maximum winds at 145 mph and pressure dropped to 935 mb, NOAA/NHC has the sustained winds still at 100 mph (at 4 pm CDT), which is still Cat 2. The lower pressure means the storm has strengthened a little.

Correction on the Wunderground page - the max winds of 145 mph was on Sept 4 at which point Ike was Cat 4 and so far that is the strongest.

400 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008 - Reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph...
165 Km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours...

Ike is expect to reach Cat 3 strength as the reaches the Texas coast. The upper portions of Galveston Bay may have tidal storm surge of greater than 20 feet - possibly up to 30 feet. Areas like Baytown, Pasedena, Deer Park, Clear Lake would have major flooding - even without the heavy rain.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

It took a full half-minute for this headline to sink in. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482"
Well, it's not their fault. They were paraphrasing a bulletin from the National Weather Service:

Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes may face certain death.

Lucky for me I just converted my house to a duplex.

 

[turbo]

Except for those in low-lying areas, Houston officials are not calling for evacuation. Let's hope Ike is well-behaved.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike;_ylt=Ajsr5NzOqODqXhbOKFKI5nms0NUE

 

[tribdog]

Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes may face certain death

wow. what was the next line: This is an absolute certainty maybe.

 

[Evo]

Except for those in low-lying areas, Houston officials are not calling for evacuation. Let's hope Ike is well-behaved.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike;_ylt=Ajsr5NzOqODqXhbOKFKI5nms0NUE

After the fiasco with trying to evacuate Houston after the last hurricane threat. 110 people killed by the evacuation, 9 people killed by the storm.

 

[LowlyPion]

This turn up the coast toward Houston is really a much worse scenario than yesterday when it was looking more like north of Port Lavaca. At least most are moving out of Galveston. Though I see now the Coast Guard is having to help with the evacuation of the Bolivar Peninsula as roads are getting cut off. So little protection around there.

Winds at 105 now hopefully won't get much worse.

Godspeed for those on the move.

 

[Evo]

My mother and youngest sister live in Houston. Living in a pine forest, her biggest threat is from falling trees. It doesn't flood where she lives. She has a steel framed brick house.

 

[Astronuc]

Forecaster warns of 'certain death' as Ike looms
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike

The storm is so big, it could inflict a punishing blow even in those areas that do not get a direct hit. Forecasters warned because of Ike's size and the shallow Texas coastal waters, it could produce a surge, or wall of water, 20 feet high. It could also dump 10 inches or more of rain.

If the storm stays on its projected path, it could head up the Houston ship channel and through Galveston Bay, which Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff called a nightmare scenario.

The oil and gas industry was closely watching the storm because it was headed straight for the nation's biggest complex of refineries and petrochemical plants. The upper Texas coast accounts for one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity.

Galveston Bay is expected to get something like a 20 ft storm surge, and that is without the waves. Galveston might look like it did after Carla (1961).
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_surge.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Carla

My sister and husband have basically written off their house near Galveston since the foundation is only about 5 feet above the water, and a 20 ft surge would put the water up to the middle of the second story - but that doesn't account for waves.