Ike is heading for the Gulf of Mexico

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Ike is currently a Category 3 hurricane, having been downgraded from Category 4, and is projected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, raising concerns about its potential to strengthen. The storm's path may lead it toward southern Florida or the Gulf Coast, with models suggesting a possible landfall between Mobile, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida. There are worries about the storm's intensity as it moves over warm waters, which could allow it to regain strength. The discussion highlights the unpredictability of hurricane paths and intensities, emphasizing the need for ongoing monitoring. Overall, the situation remains fluid, and residents in the projected impact areas are urged to prepare for potential severe weather.
  • #31
If you want to understand why Katrina and Rita became so strong so fast, read about the Guld eddys.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=351&tstamp=200605
 
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  • #32
CNN is now reporting that Ike will hit between Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas, as a Cat 4!
 
  • #33
I hope it hits Corpus Christi, my mom can't handle having anymore trees fall on her house.
 
  • #34
Figure a little up from Matagorda toward Galveston?

That can be pretty devastating in there.

Hope it's not at high tide.
 
  • #35
  • #36
Math Is Hard said:
I'm scared. My family is evacuating, but if a cat 4 hits Galveston I don't think they will have a house to go back to.

geez - look at this thing:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

Wow, that's amazing. Good thing we have satellites...now that we see them coming, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Hurricane_of_1900" won't happen again - the 1900 Galveston Hurricane.
 
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  • #37
lisab said:
Wow, that's amazing. Good thing we have satellites...now that we see them coming, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Hurricane_of_1900" won't happen again - the 1900 Galveston Hurricane.

yeah, that was incredibly sad.
 
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  • #38
Evo said:
I hope it hits Corpus Christi, my mom can't handle having anymore trees fall on her house.
I don't want any trees falling on my house!

I just boarded up the windows (some of them at least; I've got one more day ...).
 
  • #39
Math Is Hard said:
yeah, that was incredibly sad.

hate to go through it again?
 
  • #41
Math Is Hard said:
I'm scared. My family is evacuating, but if a cat 4 hits Galveston I don't think they will have a house to go back to.

geez - look at this thing:

Rita was pretty severe, though it did hit to the East.

I'm sure Galveston will be hit hard, but I should hope it will survive.

The coast between Port LaVaca on up is a bit low lying, but not nearly as populated as either north or south of there. So maybe if it has to hit somewhere that won't be so bad as coming on the lower Galveston Island.
 
  • #42
Direct hit or not, they are talking about a twenty foot storm surge.

Good luck to MIH and her family, Evo, DH, and anyone else affected by this. Hopefully you or your familes will all stay clear of the worst of this.
 
  • #43
If kept on present track, Ike would pass over Corpus Cristi and Houston and Galveston will get the NE quadrant of the storm. That could be nasty. My sister's family has a house down near Galveston on the backside near the causeway, but they live in Houston near my parents and sister-in-law.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html
 
  • #44
Just talked to the folks and they are leaving now. Mom said the gas stations have run out of gas, so I'm glad they were prepared.
 
  • #45
Hope the storm does not damage your folks place MIH, or any ones place, may be every one will be lucky.
 
  • #46
At 4 am cdt...0900 utc...

ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
A general west-northwestward motion over the central and western
gulf of mexico is expected today (th) and friday. On this track the
center will be approaching the northwestern fulf of mexico coast
late friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson
scale...and it could intensify into a category three hurricane over
the next day or two.

Ike is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 115 miles...185 km...from the center...and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 255 miles...410 km.
 
  • #48
Ike reminds me somewhat of Hurricane Beulah (1967).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beulah

We got a fair amont of flooding from that, but our house was high enough that only the streets flooded.

New construction in Houston relies houses built on slabs just above street level. That's why many homes flood as badly as they do in areas surrounding Houston. In addition, most construction uses less expensive soft woods without the necessary reinforcements for high wind.
 
  • #49
Astronuc said:
Ike reminds me somewhat of Hurricane Beulah (1967).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beulah

We got a fair amont of flooding from that, but our house was high enough that only the streets flooded.

New construction in Houston relies houses built on slabs just above street level. That's why many homes flood as badly as they do in areas surrounding Houston. In addition, most construction uses less expensive soft woods without the necessary reinforcements for high wind.

More than wind damage a slow mover could dump enough water to, if not breach Addicks/Barker to the west, at least make it a fairly uncomfortable runoff situation. The storm ditches there are mostly adequate for most storms, but I have some doubts about what their real limits may be for a real quencher that would stall.
 
  • #50
LowlyPion said:
More than wind damage a slow mover could dump enough water to, if not breach Addicks/Barker to the west, at least make it a fairly uncomfortable runoff situation. The storm ditches there are mostly adequate for most storms, but I have some doubts about what their real limits may be for a real quencher that would stall.

There are lots of subdivisions in those flat areas - that have been described as 100-year flood plain. But those areas have flooded significantly - about once every 10 years or less. :rolleyes:
 
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  • #51
Astronuc said:
There are lots of subdivisions in those flat areas - that have been described at 100-year flood plain. But those areas have flooded significantly - about once every 10 years or less. :rolleyes:
There's something amiss with the concept of the 100-year flood plain. I've been through two of those 100-year floods. I paddled my canoe around the block in one of them. I might be an old fart, but I'm not 100.

It is *hot* today. I ran out of some essential equipment while boarding up the house -- beer. The grocery store was mobbed, including a lot of people from Galveston. It's supposedly a multi-hour drive from Galveston to Houston right now.
 
  • #52
D H said:
There's something amiss with the concept of the 100-year flood plain. I've been through two of those 100-year floods. I paddled my canoe around the block in one of them. I might be an old fart, but I'm not 100.

It is *hot* today. I ran out of some essential equipment while boarding up the house -- beer. The grocery store was mobbed, including a lot of people from Galveston. It's supposedly a multi-hour drive from Galveston to Houston right now.
I used to live in Houston. LOTS of flooding.
 
  • #53
Evo said:
I used to live in Houston. LOTS of flooding.
Tell me about it. My parents' old house used to get water lapping at the front door, especially when some idiot decided to go for a joy ride in his jacked-up SUV.

Back when I was a plumbers helper, I did a lot of recovery and repair work in flooded basements (~ 1976).
 
  • #54
Astronuc said:
Tell me about it. My parents' old house used to get water lapping at the front door, especially when some idiot decided to go for a joy ride in his jacked-up SUV.

Back when I was a plumbers helper, I did a lot of recovery and repair work in flooded basements (~ 1976).

I thought a plumbers helper was a plunger. Say you were an assistant plumber, or a plumber jr.
 
  • #55
tribdog said:
I thought a plumbers helper was a plunger. Say you were an assistant plumber, or a plumber jr.
Plumbers assistant. But I ended up rebuilding pumps, motors, compressors, A/C air handlers and duct work, as well as installing supply and drain piping, and steam/condensate pipes. And I replaced and repaired sinks, toilets and showers.
 
  • #56
They are now targeting the Galveston and Houston area. The Galveston shipping channel is considered the bulls eye, which is apparently very bad news.

They have now derated the stort to a Cat 3 again, which helps just a wee bit.

The Governer was saying that a worst case scenario is a Cat 5 hitting the shipping channel. Were there no evacuations, the models predicts 1.5 million dead.
 
  • #57
Ivan Seeking said:
The Governer was saying that a worst case scenario is a Cat 5 hitting the shipping channel. Were there no evacuations, the models predicts 1.5 million dead.

I thought Galveston was in Texas, not Bangladesh. Are we becoming a third world country?
 
  • #58
Ivan Seeking said:
They are now targeting the Galveston and Houston area. The Galveston shipping channel is considered the bulls eye, which is apparently very bad news.

They have now derated the stort to a Cat 3 again, which helps just a wee bit.

The Governer was saying that a worst case scenario is a Cat 5 hitting the shipping channel. Were there no evacuations, the models predicts 1.5 million dead.
Ike was Cat 1 when it left Cuba and strengthened only slightly. It might get to Cat 3 by the time the eye hits the Texas shore, which now looks like that will be down around Freeport, with Galveston and the ship channel getting the high surge and winds on the NE side of the eye. Galveston will get it pretty hard.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200809.asp#a_topad
At the moment - they have Ike's maximum winds at 145 mph and pressure dropped to 935 mb, NOAA/NHC has the sustained winds still at 100 mph (at 4 pm CDT), which is still Cat 2. The lower pressure means the storm has strengthened a little.
 
  • #59
Astronuc said:
Ike was Cat 1 when it left Cuba and strengthened only slightly. It might get to Cat 3 by the time the eye hits the Texas shore, which now looks like that will be down around Freeport, with Galveston and the ship channel getting the high surge and winds on the NE side of the eye. Galveston will get it pretty hard.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200809.asp#a_topad
At the moment - they have Ike's maximum winds at 145 mph and pressure dropped to 935 mb, NOAA/NHC has the sustained winds still at 100 mph (at 4 pm CDT), which is still Cat 2. The lower pressure means the storm has strengthened a little.


Yes, I should have said that the predicted strength when it hits land is currently a Cat 3, which is down from the Cat 4 prediction yesterday.

I had forgotten how warm the water is in the gulf. It looks like the water is about 85 degrees F right now. WOW!
 
  • #60
Shoo, shoo! Go away, Ike!
 

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