Ike is heading for the Gulf of Mexico

[D H]

There are lots of subdivisions in those flat areas - that have been described at 100-year flood plain. But those areas have flooded significantly - about once every 10 years or less.

There's something amiss with the concept of the 100-year flood plain. I've been through two of those 100-year floods. I paddled my canoe around the block in one of them. I might be an old fart, but I'm not 100.

It is *hot* today. I ran out of some essential equipment while boarding up the house -- beer. The grocery store was mobbed, including a lot of people from Galveston. It's supposedly a multi-hour drive from Galveston to Houston right now.

 

[Evo]

There's something amiss with the concept of the 100-year flood plain. I've been through two of those 100-year floods. I paddled my canoe around the block in one of them. I might be an old fart, but I'm not 100.

It is *hot* today. I ran out of some essential equipment while boarding up the house -- beer. The grocery store was mobbed, including a lot of people from Galveston. It's supposedly a multi-hour drive from Galveston to Houston right now.

I used to live in Houston. LOTS of flooding.

 

[Astronuc]

I used to live in Houston. LOTS of flooding.

Tell me about it. My parents' old house used to get water lapping at the front door, especially when some idiot decided to go for a joy ride in his jacked-up SUV.

Back when I was a plumbers helper, I did a lot of recovery and repair work in flooded basements (~ 1976).

 

[tribdog]

Tell me about it. My parents' old house used to get water lapping at the front door, especially when some idiot decided to go for a joy ride in his jacked-up SUV.

Back when I was a plumbers helper, I did a lot of recovery and repair work in flooded basements (~ 1976).

I thought a plumbers helper was a plunger. Say you were an assistant plumber, or a plumber jr.

 

[Astronuc]

I thought a plumbers helper was a plunger. Say you were an assistant plumber, or a plumber jr.

Plumbers assistant. But I ended up rebuilding pumps, motors, compressors, A/C air handlers and duct work, as well as installing supply and drain piping, and steam/condensate pipes. And I replaced and repaired sinks, toilets and showers.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

They are now targeting the Galveston and Houston area. The Galveston shipping channel is considered the bulls eye, which is apparently very bad news.

They have now derated the stort to a Cat 3 again, which helps just a wee bit.

The Governer was saying that a worst case scenario is a Cat 5 hitting the shipping channel. Were there no evacuations, the models predicts 1.5 million dead.

 

[tribdog]

The Governer was saying that a worst case scenario is a Cat 5 hitting the shipping channel. Were there no evacuations, the models predicts 1.5 million dead.

I thought Galveston was in Texas, not Bangladesh. Are we becoming a third world country?

 

[Astronuc]

They are now targeting the Galveston and Houston area. The Galveston shipping channel is considered the bulls eye, which is apparently very bad news.

They have now derated the stort to a Cat 3 again, which helps just a wee bit.

The Governer was saying that a worst case scenario is a Cat 5 hitting the shipping channel. Were there no evacuations, the models predicts 1.5 million dead.

Ike was Cat 1 when it left Cuba and strengthened only slightly. It might get to Cat 3 by the time the eye hits the Texas shore, which now looks like that will be down around Freeport, with Galveston and the ship channel getting the high surge and winds on the NE side of the eye. Galveston will get it pretty hard.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200809.asp#a_topad
At the moment - they have Ike's maximum winds at 145 mph and pressure dropped to 935 mb, NOAA/NHC has the sustained winds still at 100 mph (at 4 pm CDT), which is still Cat 2. The lower pressure means the storm has strengthened a little.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ike was Cat 1 when it left Cuba and strengthened only slightly. It might get to Cat 3 by the time the eye hits the Texas shore, which now looks like that will be down around Freeport, with Galveston and the ship channel getting the high surge and winds on the NE side of the eye. Galveston will get it pretty hard.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200809.asp#a_topad
At the moment - they have Ike's maximum winds at 145 mph and pressure dropped to 935 mb, NOAA/NHC has the sustained winds still at 100 mph (at 4 pm CDT), which is still Cat 2. The lower pressure means the storm has strengthened a little.

Yes, I should have said that the predicted strength when it hits land is currently a Cat 3, which is down from the Cat 4 prediction yesterday.

I had forgotten how warm the water is in the gulf. It looks like the water is about 85 degrees F right now. WOW!

 

[Math Is Hard]

Shoo, shoo! Go away, Ike!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

(CNN) -- Residents living in single-family homes in some parts of coastal Texas face "certain death" if they do not heed orders to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival, the National Weather Service said Thursday night.

The unusually strong wording came in a weather advisory regarding storm surge along the shoreline of Galveston Bay, which could see maximum water levels of 15 to 22 feet, the agency said.

"All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide," the advisory said. "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes will face certain death. [continued]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/11/hurricane.ike.texas/index.html

 

[hypatia]

Its just gigantic, I hope people heed the warnings.

 

[Astronuc]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200809.asp#a_topad
At the moment - they have Ike's maximum winds at 145 mph and pressure dropped to 935 mb, NOAA/NHC has the sustained winds still at 100 mph (at 4 pm CDT), which is still Cat 2. The lower pressure means the storm has strengthened a little.

Correction on the Wunderground page - the max winds of 145 mph was on Sept 4 at which point Ike was Cat 4 and so far that is the strongest.

400 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008 - Reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph...
165 Km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours...

Ike is expect to reach Cat 3 strength as the reaches the Texas coast. The upper portions of Galveston Bay may have tidal storm surge of greater than 20 feet - possibly up to 30 feet. Areas like Baytown, Pasedena, Deer Park, Clear Lake would have major flooding - even without the heavy rain.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

It took a full half-minute for this headline to sink in. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482"
Well, it's not their fault. They were paraphrasing a bulletin from the National Weather Service:

Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes may face certain death.

Lucky for me I just converted my house to a duplex.

 

[turbo]

Except for those in low-lying areas, Houston officials are not calling for evacuation. Let's hope Ike is well-behaved.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike;_ylt=Ajsr5NzOqODqXhbOKFKI5nms0NUE

 

[tribdog]

Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes may face certain death

wow. what was the next line: This is an absolute certainty maybe.

 

[Evo]

Except for those in low-lying areas, Houston officials are not calling for evacuation. Let's hope Ike is well-behaved.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike;_ylt=Ajsr5NzOqODqXhbOKFKI5nms0NUE

After the fiasco with trying to evacuate Houston after the last hurricane threat. 110 people killed by the evacuation, 9 people killed by the storm.

 

[LowlyPion]

This turn up the coast toward Houston is really a much worse scenario than yesterday when it was looking more like north of Port Lavaca. At least most are moving out of Galveston. Though I see now the Coast Guard is having to help with the evacuation of the Bolivar Peninsula as roads are getting cut off. So little protection around there.

Winds at 105 now hopefully won't get much worse.

Godspeed for those on the move.

 

[Evo]

My mother and youngest sister live in Houston. Living in a pine forest, her biggest threat is from falling trees. It doesn't flood where she lives. She has a steel framed brick house.

 

[Astronuc]

Forecaster warns of 'certain death' as Ike looms
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_on_re_us/ike

The storm is so big, it could inflict a punishing blow even in those areas that do not get a direct hit. Forecasters warned because of Ike's size and the shallow Texas coastal waters, it could produce a surge, or wall of water, 20 feet high. It could also dump 10 inches or more of rain.

If the storm stays on its projected path, it could head up the Houston ship channel and through Galveston Bay, which Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff called a nightmare scenario.

The oil and gas industry was closely watching the storm because it was headed straight for the nation's biggest complex of refineries and petrochemical plants. The upper Texas coast accounts for one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity.

Galveston Bay is expected to get something like a 20 ft storm surge, and that is without the waves. Galveston might look like it did after Carla (1961).
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_surge.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Carla

My sister and husband have basically written off their house near Galveston since the foundation is only about 5 feet above the water, and a 20 ft surge would put the water up to the middle of the second story - but that doesn't account for waves.

 

[LowlyPion]

At least the eye wall is not well defined, at least from the pictures I can see.

The wind profile projections put it a whisker below category 3 tonight.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151304.shtml?table#contents

At his point, since it's taken a turn to the north from Corpus, since yesterday, we might hope that it continues a little more to the east. The wind coming off the land on Galveston and out of the ship channel may help diminish the surge.

 

[hypatia]

Gas prices have jumped 75 cents in the past 4 hours here.

 

[Astronuc]

The eye is aimed more or less at Galveston. If the eye turns north and head in just north of Bolivar, then the prevailing wind would be off the land (SW quadrant). If the eye continues on track the winds will off the Gulf water, and that will push the surge through Galveston Bay. Right now the project during the next two days has the center of the eye passing just south of Galveston.

 

[Astronuc]

Gas prices have jumped 75 cents in the past 4 hours here.

If 20% of the countries refining is taken out, one can expect a spike in gasoline prices. Gas up tonight - and wait.

 

[turbo]

This graphic is a bit disturbing. Potential storm surge of 27-30' north of Galveston Bay... not good if it comes true. Really not good if waves are heavy on top of the surge.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_surge.html#a_topad

 

[Astronuc]

More than half of the community of Surfside Beach was inundated by 8 a.m. Friday, and rescuers drove a dump truck through the streets in a final bid to get people out before the storm hits, the Houston Chronicle reported.

and the storm is still 165 miles from Galveston

People stranded in cars on Bolivar Peninsula
37,000 people may need to be rescued

Well they've had days to evacuate.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/12/ike.rescues/index.html

NHC/NOAA - 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008 - The center of Hurricane Ike was located near latitude 27.4 north...longitude 93.1 west or about 165 miles...270 km...southeast of Galveston Texas traveling at 12 mph - so it will be there in 15 hrs.

 

[LowlyPion]

If 20% of the countries refining is taken out, one can expect a spike in gasoline prices. Gas up tonight - and wait.

My guess is, and I must qualify that by saying I feel like I have missed most every turn Ike has made, that the refineries won't fare as badly as they did with Rita - which granted was pretty bad. But I would expect that their procedures were hardened and should put in a better result this time around.

 

[Evo]

Well they've had days to evacuate.

Having lived in Houston for 27 years and knowing how erratic hurricanes can be, long timers don't evacuate until it's pretty certain that the storm is actually going to hit.

I still remember Hurricane Carla quite well. I think we were without power for 5 days, but we stayed at home. I also remember the last hurricane before I left the Houston area. First the wind and rain blow sideways in one direction, then the eye passes over and you go outside, everything will be an odd glowing green, you assess the damage, then the storms hits blowing from the opposite direction. My husband at that time had recently moved from Vermont and he was terrified.

 

[turbo]

Having lived in Houston for 27 years and knowing how erratic hurricanes can be, long timers don't evacuate until it's pretty certain that the storm is actually going to hit.

Despite all the roads in and out of Houston, though, the population has far out-stripped the capacity of the highways to handle a last-minute evacuation. People would be stranded in traffic jams, running out of gas miles from nowhere with limited access to food, water, etc, and trying to ride out the storm in their vehicles. Not pretty.

 

[Evo]

Despite all the roads in and out of Houston, though, the population has far out-stripped the capacity of the highways to handle a last-minute evacuation. People would be stranded in traffic jams, running out of gas miles from nowhere with limited access to food, water, etc, and trying to ride out the storm in their vehicles. Not pretty.

Actually all of the highways heading north from Houston are not through rural sparse areas. Traffic jams yes, but never far from an exit with gas, shelter and food. Water won't be a problem.

Most Houstonians don't need to evacuate, so if they do as they are told and let the people from the islands and coastal areas evacuate, it will help. I haven't checked the local Houston news to see what the traffic is like heading north.

I'm going to try to reach my mom & youngest sister tonight and see if they are staying home or if they went to Austin to stay with my other sister.

Good live links. Two idiots are standing on the beach in Galveston watching the waves.

http://www.myfoxhoustonlive.com/

 

[D H]

Well see in about 30 hours whether I am one of those idiots. For those of you who know the area, I live about 1/2 mile west of the Gulf Freeway and 1/4 mile south of Clear Creek. We decided earlier that this morning was the decision point. We decided to stay. We are under moderate threat from a cat 4 storm surge, but little threat from a cat 3 or less. Even though them storm will come in as a cat 2 or so, the surge will be disproportionately larger than the wind strengths would suggest. It was a borderline decision. We can still leave, but I don't think we will.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

What is your elevation?

You're in Galveston?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It looks to me like you are facing an 18 to 21 foot storm surge, [plus wave height]?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_surge.html#a_topad

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Uh, based on what I am seeing on Google Earth, you are at about 26 feet, maybe less?

I would get the heck out of there!

As I understand this, the size of the surge depends not only on the wind speed, but also the size of the storm, and this one is a monster! It covers the entire Gulf.

The eye is expected to come right up the shipping channel.

 

[D H]

I looked into the possibility of surge as a threat. This storm may the equivalent of a cat 4 storm, but we are under moderate but not significant threat from a cat 4 surge. We are under minimal threat from a cat 3 or less. We are under a voluntary, not mandatory, evacuation. The key surge threat is to the northern and eastern parts of Galveston Bay. Baytown is in big trouble. Bayous that come directly off of the bay are also in trouble. Clear Lake is facing a significant threat. Clear Creek, to a much lesser extent. We are about 8 meandering miles upstream from the lake, 4 miles as the crow flies. We haven't had visits from officials asking us to write our social security numbers on chests to make our dead bodies easier to identify. We haven't had any visits from officials, period. They have been focusing on the real threat areas -- which we apparently are not.

Thanks for the concern, and I'll let you know how things went -- as soon as we get power and internet, that is. I expect to lose power within the next couple of hours and do not expect get it back for several days.

 

[wolram]

I looked into the possibility of surge as a threat. This storm may the equivalent of a cat 4 storm, but we are under moderate but not significant threat from a cat 4 surge. We are under minimal threat from a cat 3 or less. We are under a voluntary, not mandatory, evacuation. The key surge threat is to the northern and eastern parts of Galveston Bay. Baytown is in big trouble. Bayous that come directly off of the bay are also in trouble. Clear Lake is facing a significant threat. Clear Creek, to a much lesser extent. We are about 8 meandering miles upstream from the lake, 4 miles as the crow flies. We haven't had visits from officials asking us to write our social security numbers on chests to make our dead bodies easier to identify. We haven't had any visits from officials, period. They have been focusing on the real threat areas -- which we apparently are not.

Thanks for the concern, and I'll let you know how things went -- as soon as we get power and internet, that is. I expect to lose power within the next couple of hours and do not expect get it back for several days.

You are brave, i hope every thing goes well for you, i really will be thinking of you guys.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Okay, as long as you have done your homework, I won't send the PF Sister rescue team. Good luck! Please let us know how you are doing ASAP.

 

[Astronuc]

West of I-45 (around Friendswood to Alvin) might get a foot of water or so (they could get 10-12 inches of rain alone - with no where for it to go). The bayous will back up and overflow.

East of I-45 is going to be pretty bad. Seabrook and Kemah were flooding well before the major storm surge. Most of Galveston will probably be underwater - and that's without the waves crashing into those structure with 100+ mph winds blowing. I think people don't realize the 1 cubic meter of water has a mass of 1 metric ton, so some of those waves will be like a large truck driving into those houses and structures.

My parents, sister's family and others are riding it out in central Houston. My parents old home, near Braes Bayou flooded about 18 inches last big storm. They'd already sold it by then.

My brother had a home in Pearland, and that nearly got flooded, and some neighborhoods nearby did.

 

[hypatia]

I get a bit antsy when a thunderstorm lasts a hour. I would go crazy just from the noise of the wind and rain{to the degree of this storm}, long before daylight.

 

[Evo]

I get a bit antsy when a thunderstorm lasts a hour. I would go crazy just from the noise of the wind and rain{to the degree of this storm}, long before daylight.

The Evo Child is terrified of storms, thank goodness we don't live on the Gulf anymore. She was terrified of coming to get me at work in the storm tonight, we kept getting tornadoes, so I had her wait until the last warning lifted. She was a trouper, I know she was frightened by some of the cells that she had to drive through. It was the only thing that saved her from me slugging her with my purse though.

DH, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you.

 

[Astronuc]

As of 8pm CDT, Ike was just shy of Cat 3 with maximum sustained winds of 110 MPH, but higher gusts. I think Houston will get a lot of damage, and smaller communities on the coast and bay will likely be heavily damage if not destroyed.

Next update in 45 min.

 

[Evo]

I have such fond memories of Galveston, Bolivar, Kemah and the Texas City dyke (best place to go crabbing).

 

[hypatia]

I have never been there, but recall..

 

[OmCheeto]

And what of all those relatives of mine on the poop deck...

I think I might be totally orphaned soon.

But what a way to go.

 

[Evo]

IKE is monstrous, 600 miles across, it fills the entire gulf from the satellite photo I just saw. I hope my mother's trees hold up. They say the eye will pass directly over Houston. Surrounded by 30 foot tall pine trees, I'm worried some will crash into the house like during the last hurricane. My mom is tough, but she's in her 80's.

 

[Math Is Hard]

I'm wondering when my family will be able to return to Clear Lake.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN reports that winds are 1 mph below Cat 3.

Some of the weather people were saying that for every thirty stories that you go up in a high rise, you have to increase the Cat number by 1. And in fact it has been reported that Cat 4 winds have already been measured in at least one tall building.

In the last few hours, a well defined eye has formed, just in time for landfall.

 

[Math Is Hard]

It's weird because the image they are showing on the news looks like Ike has some big holes in it. They're talking about places where it's not raining at all because they are under one of these dry spots in the bands. I hope that means it's becoming disorganized and weakening.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

A formed eye means that it is strengthening, but luckily there isn't much time before it hits land.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Geez! It looks like the East side of the eye will be centered on the channel. Not good.

The center of the eye should go right over DH.