Independent Probability Question

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on determining the independence of outcomes A and B in a probability context, where P(A) = 0.8 and P(B) = 0.5. The user evaluates the independence of pairs: A and B, A and B^{c}, A^{c} and B, and A^{c} and B^{c}. The calculations reveal that A and B^{c} are not independent, as P(A\cupB^{c}) = 0.9 does not equal P(A) = 0.8. Additionally, A^{c} and B^{c} are also shown to be dependent, with P(A^c \cap B^c) = 0 contradicting the product of their individual probabilities.

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  • Understanding of basic probability concepts, including independent events.
  • Familiarity with the notation of probability, such as P(A), P(B), and P(A ∩ B).
  • Knowledge of set operations in probability, including unions and complements.
  • Ability to perform calculations involving probabilities and their intersections.
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tomtom690
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Homework Statement


Hello, I just want to know if I am going about this the right way.
A and B are outcomes of a random experiment in a sample space \Omega such that \Omega = A\cupB. P(A) = 0.8 and P(B) = 0.5 Study if A and B, A and B^{c}, A^{c} and B, and A^{c} and B^{c} are independent outcomes. Also, evaluate P(A\cupB^{c}) etc.


Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution


For the first three, I have used the same reasoning. I shall give an example of A and B^{c}.
Since \Omega = A\cupB then A\cupB^{c}=A
Now, let x = P(A\cupB^{c})=P(A)+P(B^{c})-P(A\capB^{c})

Now if A and B^{c} are independent, then their intersection is the same as multiplying them together. So P(A\capB^{c}) = 0.8*0.5 = 0.4
This means that P(A\cupB^{c}) = 0.9 \neq P(A) = 0.8, so they are not independent.

However I am having difficulty applying this reasoning (if correct!) to the final one. And then the evaluation part seems too easy, as I have already said in this working out what they are equal to.

Thanks.
 
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P(A^c \cap B^c) = 1 - P(A \cup B) = 0

whereas

P(A^c)P(B^c) = (0.2)(0.5) \neq 0

so A^c and B^c are not independent.
 
Last edited:
As for the other questions, I calculated

P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)

so

1 = 0.8 + 0.5 - P(A \cap B)

which means that

P(A \cap B) = 0.3

Now use

P(A) = P(A \cap B) + P(A \cap B^c)

to establish that

P(A \cap B^c) = 0.5

which disagrees with your calculation.

[Edit] Oh wait, I see what you did. Yes, I think your way is OK, too.

If you use my calculation, you would observe that

P(A)P(B^c) = (0.8)(0.5) = 0.4

which does not equal P(A \cap B^c), so A and B^c are not independent.

You can then calculate

P(A \cup B^c) = P(A) + P(B^c) - P(A \cap B^c) = 0.8
 
Last edited:

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