Intelligence failures - Systemic?

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In summary, Ken MacLeod's blog post discusses the difference between conspiracies and hierarchies, specifically in regards to intelligence failures within the CIA, Pentagon, and White House. He mentions that governments with pre-existing worldviews can often overlook important information and rely too heavily on certain evidence. Additionally, he brings up the idea that hierarchies and bureaucracies can hinder the collection and interpretation of information. He also references a PhD thesis on the rise of the Chinese Communist Party and how it relied heavily on Japanese intelligence reports, overlooking the role of Chinese society and other factors. The post also mentions the irony of the US government's attempts to gather vast amounts of data for intelligence purposes, as it may actually weaken the quality of the intelligence.
  • #1
selfAdjoint
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Good post by Ken MacLeod on conspiracies vs hierarchies, and he links to a long Gabriel Kolko review on intelligence failure in hieracrchies,especially CIA vs. Pentagon and CIA vs. White House.

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I would just add that when a government is pre-disposed to a certain worldview, and certain plans exist before solid data exists, they can give too much weight to some evidence, and not enough to others. This is especially problematic for a president who is admittedly not interested in information per se. Bush adds an extra filter or two to the aloready filtered info that is due to the way our intelligence agencies are set up.
 
  • #3
Thanks for the post SelfAdjoint.

There are many examples of how hierarchies and bureacracies frustrate the collection of information and its collation into 'pure' knowledge. And Zero's observation that the worldview of the leaders plays a significant part in distortions and frustration.

Some time ago, I read of a PhD thesis on the rise to power of the Chinese Communist Party which relied heavily on Japanese intelligence reports. The thesis apparently concluded that Mao's success was largely due to a failure of the Japanese, in the 1930s, to supply sufficient men and materiel, and to failings of the intelligence services themselves.

One doesn't know whether to laugh or cry about this; that Mao, the CCP, and the Chinese people themselves played a decisive role seems to have been ignored; the underlying reasons for their success surely have more to do with Chinese society etc than Japanese intelligence!

While the US Administration's (Ashcroft's?) attempts to hoover up vast amounts of data about individuals is surely abhorrent (if the reports I've read are accurate), the irony is that the vast amount of data may actually weaken the quality of the intelligence.
 
  • #4
You are aware, of course, that any intellegence agency
has counter-intellegence agencies working against it,
and that what it secretely discoveres can easily be
gone or change before it is given a wider exposure.
Aspecialy in the 21st century. :wink:

Peace and long life.
 

1. What is considered an "intelligence failure"?

An intelligence failure is a situation in which an intelligence agency or organization fails to accurately assess or predict a significant event or threat. This can be due to a variety of factors, such as faulty data, biased analysis, or inadequate communication.

2. How common are intelligence failures?

Intelligence failures are not uncommon and have occurred throughout history. Some notable examples include the failure to predict the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 and the failure to anticipate the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001.

3. What are some potential causes of systemic intelligence failures?

Systemic intelligence failures can be caused by a combination of factors, including inadequate resources, bureaucratic obstacles, lack of coordination between agencies, and cognitive biases among analysts.

4. How can intelligence failures be prevented?

Preventing intelligence failures is a complex and ongoing process. It involves improving communication and collaboration within and between intelligence agencies, investing in technology and resources, conducting thorough analysis and evaluation, and being aware of and avoiding cognitive biases.

5. What are the consequences of intelligence failures?

The consequences of intelligence failures can range from minor setbacks to catastrophic events. In addition to the immediate impact of the failure itself, there can be long-term consequences such as loss of trust in intelligence agencies and potential changes in policies and procedures.

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