billschnieder said:
And as I explained, I do not engage in these discussions for religious purposes, so I'm surprised why you would expect me to bet on.
A nonreligious person can have intuitions and opinions about the
likelihood of various possibilities, like the likelihood that improved gravitational wave detectors will in the near future show that general relativity's predictions about gravitational waves are false. If someone doesn't think this is very likely, I would think it a bit absurd for them to gloat about the lack of experimental confirmation of gravitational waves in an advocate with someone taking the mainstream view that general relativity is likely to be accurate at classical scales.
billschnieder said:
I and others, have raised questions about the premises used to supporting that claim. Rather than explain why the premises are true, you expect me rather to bet that the claim is not true.
As you no doubt remember I gave extended arguments and detailed questions intended to show why your claims that Bell's theorem is theoretically flawed or untestable don't make sense, but you failed to respond to most of my questions and arguments and then abruptly shut down the discussion, in multiple cases (As with my posts
here and
here where I pointed out that your argument about the failure of the 'principle of common cause' ignored the specific types of conditions where it failed as outlined in the Stanford Encyclopedia article you were using as a reference, and I asked you to directly address my argument about past light cones in a local realist universe without relying on nonapplicable statements from the encyclopedia article. Your response
here was to ignore all the specific quotes I gave you about the nature of the required conditions and declare that you'd decided we'd have to 'agree to disagree' on the matter rather than discuss it further...if you ever change your mind and decide to actually address the light cone argument in a thoughtful way, you might start by saying whether you disagree with anything in post #63
here).
Of course the point that Bell inequalities might not actually be violated with loophole-free tests is totally separate from the idea that the proof itself is flawed or that perfect tests are impossible in the first place unless we know the values of all hidden variables and can control for them (the arguments you were making earlier). Unlike with those earlier arguments I don't actually disagree with your basic point that they
might not be violated with loophole free tests so there's no need for me to try to argue with you about that, I was just using the idea of betting to point to the absurdity of your gloating attitude about the lack of loophole-free tests. I think this gloating rather typifies your "lawyerly" approach to the subject, where you are trying to cast doubt on Bell using rhetorical strategies rather than examine the issues in a detailed and thoughtful manner.
billschnieder said:
The fact that QM and experiments agree is a big hint that the odd-man out (Bell inequalities) does not model the same thing as QM does, which is what is realized in real experiments.
Uh, the
whole point of the Bell inequalities is to prove that the assumed conditions they are modeling (local realism) are incompatible with QM! Do you really not understand this after all this time, or is this just another example of "it sounds good rhetorically, who cares if it's really a plausible argument?"
billschnieder said:
So I'm not sure why you think by repeatedly mentioning the fact that numerous experiments have agreed with QM, it somehow advances your argument. It doesn't.
My "argument" is that Bell has a valid proof that local realism and QM are incompatible, and thus that experimental verification of QM predictions about Bell inequality violations also constitute experimental falsification of local realism. Do you really not understand the
very basic logic of deriving certain predictions from theoretical assumptions, showing the predictions don't match reality, and therefore considering that this is experimental evidence that the theory doesn't describe the real world? This is just how
any theory of physics would be falsified experimentally!
billschnieder said:
Also the phrase "experimental loopholes" is a misnomer because it gives the false impression that there is something "wrong" with the experiments, such that "better" experiments have to be performed. This is a backward look at it. Every so-called "loophole" is actually a hidden assumption made by Bell in deriving his inequalities.
The loopholes are just based on actual experiments not meeting the
observable experimental conditions Bell was assuming would hold in the theoretical experiments that the inequalities are supposed to apply to, like the idea that there should be a spacelike separation between measurements (if an actual experiment doesn't conform to this, it falls prey to the locality loophole). None of them are based on whether the theoretical assumptions about the laws of physics used in the derivation (like the assumption that the universe follows local realist laws) are true or false.
To put it another way, Bell proved that (specified observable experimental conditions, like spacelike separation between measurements) + (theoretical assumptions about laws of physics, like local realism) = (Bell inequalities). So, if a real experiment matches
all the observable experimental conditions but does not give results which satisfy the Bell inequalities, that's a good experimental falsification of the theoretical assumptions about the laws of physics that Bell made. On the other hand, if an experiment doesn't match all those observable conditions, then even if it violates Bell inequalities there may still be some remaining possibility that the theoretical assumptions actually do apply in our universe (so our universe might still obey local realist laws)
billschnieder said:
When I mentioned "assumption" previously, you seemed to express surprise, despite the fact that I have already pointed out to you several times hidden assumptions within Bell's treatment that make it incompatible with Aspect-type experiments.
And I've pointed out that some of the "hidden assumptions" you claimed were needed, like controlling for all the hidden variables, were not necessary. In
this post you even seemed to be starting to get the point when you asked:
Is it your claim that Bell's "population" is defined in terms of "an infinite set of repetitions of the exact observable experimental conditions you were using"? If that is what you mean here then I fail to see the need to make any fair sampling assumption at all.
To which I responded in
post #126 on that thread:
In the part in bold I think I made clear that Bell's proof would only apply to the exact observable experimental conditions you were using if it was true that those conditions met the "basic criteria" I mentioned above. I allowed for the possibility that 100% detector efficiency might be one of the conditions needed--DrChinese's subsequent posts seem to say that the original Bell inequalities do require this assumption, although perhaps you can derive other inequalities if the efficiency lies within some known bounds, and he seemed to say that local realist theories which tried to make use of this loophole would need some other physically implausible features. As I said above in my response to #110 though, I would rather keep the issue of the detector efficiency loophole separate from your other critiques of Bell's reasoning, which would seem to apply even if we had an experiment that closed all these known loopholes (and apparently there was one experiment with perfect detector efficiency but it was vulnerable to a separate known loophole).
But of course that didn't go anywhere because you didn't respond to this, and ended up arguing that frequentist definitions of probability were so inherently horrible that you refused to adopt them even for the sake of argument, even if they were the type of probability likely being assumed by Bell in his proof.
billschnieder said:
If anyone or more of any assumptions in Bell's treatment are not met in the experiments, Bell's inequalities will not apply. The locality assumption is explicit in Bell's treatment, so Bell's proponents think violation of the inequalities definitely means violation of the locality principle. But there are other hidden assumptions such as:
1) Every photon pair will be detected (due to choice of only +/- as possible outcomes)
This is an observable experimental condition (at least it's observable whether every detection at one detector is part of a coincidence with a detection at the other, and it shouldn't be possible to come up with a local hidden variables model where the hidden variables influence the chance of nondetection in such a way that if one photon isn't detected the other's guaranteed not to be either despite the random choice of detector settings, and have this lead to a Bell inequality violation).
billschnieder said:
2) P(lambda) is equivalent for each of the terms of the inequality
This is the no-conspiracy assumption, and given that lambda can represent local facts at a time
before the experimenters make a choice of which detector setting to use (with the choice made using any random or pseudorandom method they like), it's not hard to see why a theory that violated this would have some very implausible features.
billschnieder said:
3) Datasets of pairs are extracted from a dataset of triples
As I said in my previous post:
The Bell-type inequalities are based on the theoretical assumption that on each trial there is a λ which either predetermines a definition outcome for each of the three detector settings (like the 'hidden fruits' that are assumed to be behind each box on my scratch lotto analogy), or at least predetermines a probability for each of the three which is not influenced by what happens to the other particle at the other detector (i.e. P(A|aλ) is not different from P(A|Bbaλ)). If this theoretical assumption were valid, and the probability of different values of λ on each trial did not depend on the detector settings a and b on that trial, then this would be a perfectly valid situation where these inequalities would be predicted to hold.
So, this just reduces to the assumption of local realism plus the no-conspiracy assumption, it's not an independent assumption.
billschnieder said:
As I argued in
this post, I think you're incorrect that this is necessary for Bell's proof:
In a local realist theory there is an objective truth about which variables are associated with a given point in spacetime (and the values of those variables). This would include any variables associated with the region of spacetime occupied by the moon, and any associated with the region of spacetime occupied by a human. The variables associated with some humans might correspond to a state that we could label "observing the moon", and the variables associated with other humans might correspond to a state we could label "not observing the moon", but the variables themselves are all assumed to have an objective state that does not depend on whether anyone knows about them.
A "contextual" hidden variables theory is one where knowledge of H is not sufficient to predetermine what results the particle will give for any possible measurement of a quantum-mechanical variable like position or momentum, the conditions at the moment of measurement (like the exact state of the measuring device at the time of measurement) can also influence the outcome--see p. 39
here on google books, for example. This doesn't mean that all fundamental variables (hidden or not) associated with individual points in spacetime don't have definite values at all times, it just means that knowing all variables associated with points in the past light cone of the measurement at some time t does not uniquely determine the values of variables in the region of spacetime where the measurement is made (which tell you the outcome of the measurement).
If we assume that the particles
always give the same results (or opposite results) when the same detector settings are used, then we can derive from other assumptions already mentioned that this implies the results for each possible setting must be predetermined (making it a contextual theory), I can explain if you like. But Bell derived inequalities which don't depend on this assumption of predetermined results for each setting, see p. 12 of http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/142461/files/198009299.pdfpapers where he writes:
It was only in the context of perfect correlation (or anticorrelation) that determinism could be inferred for the relation of observation results to pre-existing particle properties (for any indeterminism would have spoiled the correlation). Despite my insistence that the determinism was inferred rather than assumed, you might still suspect somehow that it is a preoccupation with determinism that creates the problem. Note well then that the following argument makes no mention whatever of determinism.
billschnieder said:
5) ...
And the others I have not mentioned or are yet to be discovered. So whenever you hear about "detection efficiency loophole", the issue really is a failure of hidden assumption (1). And the other example I just gave a few posts back about cyclicity and indexing, involves the failure of (2) and (3).
As I point out above, there aren't really that many independent theoretical assumptions, and any theoretical assumptions beyond local realism would require some very weird conditions (like parallel universes, or 'conspiracies' in past conditions that predetermine what choice the experimenter will make on each trial and tailor the earlier hidden variables to those future choices) in order to be violated.
billschnieder said:
I make an effort to explain my point of view, you are free to completely demolish it with legitimate arguments. I will continue to point out the flaws I see in your responses (as long as a relevant response can be descerned from them)
Ah, so as long as you deem it not "relevant" you are free not to address my central arguments, like not explaining what flaws you saw in my reading of the specific quotes from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy article on the principle of common cause (since your entire refutation to my past light cone argument ended up revolving around quotes from that article), or not even considering whether the probabilistic statements Bell makes might make sense when interpreted in frequentist terms with the correct understanding of the "population" of experiments (with the 'population' being one defined solely in terms of observable experimental conditions with no attempt to 'control for' the value of hidden variables, so that by the law of large numbers any real experiment matching those conditions should converge on the ideal probabilities in a large number of trials if the basic theoretical assumptions like local realism were valid). Both of these were central to my counterarguments to two of your main anti-Bell arguments, the first being that Bell's equation (2) was not legitimately derivable from the assumption of local realism, the second being that it would be impossible in principle to test whether Bell's theoretical assumptions held in the real world without knowing the value of all hidden variables in each experiment and controlling for them. But since you decided these counterarguments weren't "relevant" you simply didn't give them any substantive response.
billschnieder said:
But if you can not provide a legimate argument and you think the goal of discussion as one of winning/losing, you may be inclined to interprete my conviction about my point of view to be "triumphant/mocking". But that is just your perspective and you are entitled to it, even if it is false.
I'll leave it to others to decide whether quotes like the following have a tone of "triumphant" dismissal or whether they simply express an attitude of caution about whether there is a
slight possibility the universe obeys local realist laws that exploit both detection loopholes simultaneously:
Now that this blatant error is clear, let us look at real experiments to see which approach is more reasonable, by looking at what proportion of photons leaving the source is actually detected.
For all Bell-test experiments performed to date, only 5-30% of the photons emitted by the detector have been detected, with only one exception. And this exception, which I'm sure DrC and JesseM will remind us of, had other more serious problems. Let us make sure we are clear what this means.
It means of almost all those experiments usually thrown around as proof of non-locality, P(case4) has been at most 30% and even as low as 30% in some cases. The question then is, where did the whopping 70% go?
Therefore it is clear first of all by common sense, then by probability theory, and finally confirmed by numerous experiments that non-detection IS an issue and should have been included in the derivation of the inequalities!
(from post #930--part in bold sounds a bit 'mocking' to me, and note that the claim of 'only one exception' was posted
after my post #152 on the 'Understanding Bell's Logic' thread where I told you that other experiments closing the detection loophole had been done)
Therefore correlations observed in real experiments in which non-detection matters can not be compared to idealized theoretical proofs in which non-detection was not considered since those idealized theoretical proofs made assumptions that will never be fulfilled in any real experiments.
(from post #932--a blanket dismissal of the relevance of all 'real experiments', no nuance whatsoever)
What has this got to do with anything. If there was a convincing experiment which fulfilled all the assumptions in Bell's derivation, I would change my mind. I am after the truth, I don't religiously follow one side just because I have invested my whole life to it.
(from #936--sounds rather mocking again, or was there no implication here that others like myself or DrChinese are religiously following one side because we've invested our lives in it?)
JesseM said:
Don't know about that precise inequality, but as I mentioned in an earlier post:
DId I hear ONE with a but attached?
(from post #151 on 'Understanding Bell's Logic'--again, sounds completely dismissive, no actual interest in what the experiment might tell us about the likelihood of a loophole-exploiting hidden variables theory)