News Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[Czcibor]

And why is that a good news, exactly?

That such invasion turns out to be rather costly for Russians?

(Unfortunately they still have quite big reserves)

 

[Czcibor]

The user/bot "John Slister" whose identical posts were just deleted seems to belong to famous Russian Web Brigades, that are paid to spam forums with pro-Russian regime propaganda.

They were already active on Russian opposition sites. Recently the flocked en-masse Polish websites, now it's first time I see them on English web site.

 

[voko]

That such invasion turns out to be rather costly for Russians?

You need to realize that the money spent by the Russian Central Bank did not just disappear. It was sold on Russian exchange markets, and bought by Russian tax residents. And there are draconian rules in Russia that make it difficult (not impossible, though) to siphon foreign currency abroad without using it to pay for imports. So a sizeable chunk of the money will be used to import more stuff into Russia.

Now I do not think that is really bad for Russia because, you know, they have plenty of holes in the ground which produce some flammable fluids that they export gainfully for foreign currency. And the price for those fluids seems to be on the rise again.

 

[Vanadium 50]

It's not. These posts are from a previous PF poster, who was banned for posting hate message directed towards certain ethnic groups. He is now continuing with a parade of sockpuppets.

 

[Czcibor]

You need to realize that the money spent by the Russian Central Bank did not just disappear. It was sold on Russian exchange markets, and bought by Russian tax residents. And there are draconian rules in Russia that make it difficult (not impossible, though) to siphon foreign currency abroad without using it to pay for imports. So a sizeable chunk of the money will be used to import more stuff into Russia.

Somehow (maybe because of all those bank accounts in Switzerland and until quite recently in Cyprus) I have rather limited belief in effectiveness of Russian currency controls. Anyway, when Russia had to intervene on foreign markets then by definition no currency controls were able to operate.

But I have to agree about increase of oil prices. Does it compensate increase of cost of servicing debt?

 

[voko]

Somehow (maybe because of all those bank accounts in Switzerland and until quite recently in Cyprus) I have rather limited belief in effectiveness of Russian currency controls.

This is not really rocket science. A huge chunk of Russian foreign currency income is from selling hydrocarbons. Those are transported primarily via state-controlled pipelines and state-controlled railways, with Putin's closest friends at the helm. So the authorities know pretty well how much stuff is sold, and how much dough that generates. Something, of course, gets stuck between the cogs but largely the system is working well. This is the source and soul of Putin's confidence in his course. There is a reason why the poor Khodorkovsky chap served what many had thought was an infinite term and then was suddenly pardoned.

But I have to agree about increase of oil prices. Does it compensate increase of cost of servicing debt?

Here is a news flash for you: Russia's debt is just 10% her GDP: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/russia

 

[Dotini]

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20140303-700766.html
Wheat and corn prices are rising, as Ukraine is an important supplier of this commodity.

There may be troubles in the economies of various places, but Ukraine's is being dashed upon the rocks. They need to stand up and staff a government, get it validated as a credit partner, then fix their economy and fight a war. This is a mess!

 

[SteamKing]

Poland has called for a NATO Article 4 meeting, to take place tomorrow, March 4.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/03/03/poland-calls-for-nato-article-4-meeting/

Russia is also saying that China is largely 'in agreement' with the Russian actions w.r.t. the Ukraine, whatever that means.

http://news.sky.com/story/1219922/russia-and-china-in-agreement-over-ukraine

 

[Dotini]

Russia is also saying that China is largely 'in agreement' with the Russian actions w.r.t. the Ukraine, whatever that means.

It's very easy to understand exactly why China would be in agreement with Russia. China is asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea which cut sharply across lines claimed by Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BO193A_CSHIP_G_20131201175712.jpg

 

[voko]

It's very easy to understand exactly why China would be in agreement with Russia. China is asserting territorial claims...

Has Russia asserted any territorial claims? Last thing I heard from Putin was "I hereby appeal to the Council of Federation of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation to use the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the social and political situation in that country is normalised". Does not look like a territorial claim to me. He is obviously up to teaching - or being taught - a lesson, but I would be surprised if he really wanted to annex Crimea. The lesson most likely has to do with the the coup in Kiev rather than Crimea. And that's exactly where China would be in full accord with Russia.

 

[D H]

This is not really rocket science.

No, it's not. The black and white world of rocket science is easy compared to the messy shades of gray world of politics.

 

[OmCheeto]

I discussed this mess today with my Russian friends. One said that I should not repeat anything she said, as, even though she has relatives in the Ukraine, she has no idea what is going on. This would apparently indicate that her relatives don't know what's going on.

Her husband, laid no restrictions, and had many opinions.

Interesting opinions.

Has anyone heard of Ostap Bandera?

My friend claimed this was a person's name, that was later adopted by a group after his death. But I googled it after he mentioned it, and told him later that I could find no one by that name.
He told me to ignore the first name, as perhaps he was incorrect.

Anyways, like many people, I have mixed ancestry. Many of my ancestors were from the Ukraine. All, but my great-grandparents, perished in the Holodomor.

Sorry. I think I've gone off topic. Ok to delete.

 

[Yanick]

Has anyone heard of Ostap Bandera?

My friend claimed this was a person's name, that was later adopted by a group after his death. But I googled it after he mentioned it, and told him later that I could find no one by that name.
He told me to ignore the first name, as perhaps he was incorrect.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera

May be relevant, as I am pretty ignorant of the history of the area; Mostly a voluntary decision as my family came to the USA in 1989 as part of the Jewish migration out of the USSR and I have developed quite a bit of hate for anything having to do with the USSR, Russia and Belarus. The latter is where my family if from.

From everything I knew about the Ukraine (not much) prior to the latest events, I believed that Ukraine, mostly as a whole, was very pro-Ukraine independence and anti-Russia's little buddy. This whole situation is pretty confusing and I feel very bad for the people who just want to live their lives' in a decent and fair society. I'd bet this is actually the majority (conjecture).

 

[russ_watters]

Has Russia asserted any territorial claims? Last thing I heard from Putin was "I hereby appeal to the Council of Federation of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation to use the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the social and political situation in that country is normalised". Does not look like a territorial claim to me. He is obviously up to teaching - or being taught - a lesson, but I would be surprised if he really wanted to annex Crimea. The lesson most likely has to do with the the coup in Kiev rather than Crimea. And that's exactly where China would be in full accord with Russia.

Are you saying you believe him? Do you believe the situation in Crimea required intervention? The unrest wasn't primarily in Crimea and Crimea isn't the seat of the Ukrainian government -- seems an odd place to send troops then if that is the justification, isn't it? Do you believe the action was in accordance with international law? Shouldn't he have consulted with or otherwise notified the UN?

It appears to me that annexation is exactly what we have here.

 

[OmCheeto]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera

May be relevant, as I am pretty ignorant of the history of the area; Mostly a voluntary decision as my family came to the USA in 1989 as part of the Jewish migration out of the USSR and I have developed quite a bit of hate for anything having to do with the USSR, Russia and Belarus. The latter is where my family if from.

From everything I knew about the Ukraine (not much) prior to the latest events, I believed that Ukraine, mostly as a whole, was very pro-Ukraine independence and anti-Russia's little buddy. This whole situation is pretty confusing and I feel very bad for the people who just want to live their lives' in a decent and fair society. I'd bet this is actually the majority (conjecture).

Well said.

And you can edit out the "(conjecture)". I will not hold it against you.

 

[gravenewworld]

The EU and US economies together are more than triple the size of the Chinese and Russian economies combined. China and Russia can try to flex their muscle, but in reality their importance is often overestimated, where their views of importance are often distorted by visions of past empires that existed 1000 years ago. Imagine if Italy thought it was still the Roman Empire.

Russia's economy has already gotten spooked which is going to kill off any of the remaining anemic growth that Russia had.


If this twosome wants to grow in our world economically, they'd better be friendly to and with the rest of us. These sorts of unexpecteds are unsettling to the financial world, and that means investors will tend to shy from the region and involved currencies. There are very few ruble and yuan and very few ruble or yuan based investments in the world outside these involved countries. If this current scenario develops beyond a relatively simple local thrash about of power and sovereignty, I cannot imagine this helping their economic cause.


Believe it or not, the US still is a super power and when we freeze assets and suspend trade talks, it still makes economic impact.

 

[Dotini]

Recall the Nuland-Pyatt call which said "F**k the EU" with respect to Ukraine policy? It seems we still have not sufficiently cracked the whip on our EU allies, as Germany declines to oust Russia from the G8. Germany relies on copious quantities of Russian natural gas from Ukrainian pipelines.

http://www.dw.de/putin-agrees-to-ukraine-fact-finding-mission-after-talk-with-merkel/a-17468591
Germany against Russian exit from G8

Meanwhile on Sunday, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier urged G8 members to rethink stripping Russia of its membership.

"The format of the G8 is actually the only one in which we in the West can speak directly with Russia," Steinmeier told German public broadcaster ARD. "Should we really give up this unique format?"

 

[voko]

Are you saying you believe him?

Believing him is one thing. Assuming he will do unnecessarily stupid things is quite another.

The unrest wasn't primarily in Crimea and Crimea isn't the seat of the Ukrainian government -- seems an odd place to send troops then if that is the justification, isn't it?

It does not seem that way to me. The troops were already there, and the locals were pretty much in support. Plus the peninsular convenience coupled with established bases and, importantly, guaranteed support at home. And yes, the anti-coup unrest was, if not primarily, then in a major way, in Crimea.

Imagine now him sending troops directly to Kiev instead.

To be fair, though, that can still happen, given the verbiage of his request for the use of force.

Do you believe the action was in accordance with international law? Shouldn't he have consulted with or otherwise notified the UN?

I do not think I wanted to or did make any implications regarding this.

 

[voko]

Putin just held a major press conference dedicated to Ukraine. He seems to have made a few interesting statements. Let's hope a transcript will be published shortly.

 

[russ_watters]

Believing him is one thing. Assuming he will do unnecessarily stupid things is quite another.

You are being evasive. It sounds like you are saying you don't believe his reasons or believe he wants to annex Crimea but won't because it would be stupid.

It does not seem that way to me. The troops were already there...

Except for the troops that weren't there.

...and the locals were pretty much in support.

The Russian majority is only 60/40 -- as if that were a justification for an invasion, Pennsylvania's German population is probably higher than that. And as far as I'm aware, no one took any polls/votes.

Plus the peninsular convenience coupled with established bases and, importantly, guaranteed support at home.

Yes!

And yes, the anti-coup unrest was, if not primarily, then in a major way, in Crimea.

Ahem, again, you are being evasive. The revolution/coup happened in Kiev, not Crimea. There were some minor demonstrations in Crimea afterwards, but little or no violence.

Still, Putin is now suggesting he wants to reinstall the previous regime in Ukraine. I see him attempting to keep the rest of Ukraine as a puppet state while annexing Crimea.

Imagine now him sending troops directly to Kiev instead.

To be fair, though, that can still happen, given the verbiage of his request for the use of force.

Seems to be one of his goals, yes.

I do not think I wanted to or did make any implications regarding this.

I didn't say you did. I'm asking.

 

[voko]

You are being evasive. It sounds like you are saying you don't believe his reasons or believe he wants to annex Crimea but won't because it would be stupid.

I do not see any rational reason for him to want to annex Crimea. I cannot say if he really wants to, I cannot read his mind. I believe annexing Crimea would be a very stupid idea both for Putin and for Russia in general.

Except for the troops that weren't there.

Putin seems to have denied sending any troops to Crimea or elsewhere (but I may have misinterpreted that - let's wait for the transcript).

The Russian majority is only 60/40 -- as if that were a justification for an invasion, Pennsylvania's German population is probably higher than that. And as far as I'm aware, no one took any polls/votes.

I am not sure why you are talking about justifications in the first place. I did say that in my opinion his act has a clear focus on Kiev, not on Crimea. Crimea is just a fantastic opportunity.

Ahem, again, you are being evasive. The revolution/coup happened in Kiev, not Crimea. There were some minor demonstrations in Crimea afterwards, but little or no violence.

You are misinterpreting what I am saying. Probably because you have "annexation" firmly established in your perception. I hope the previous paragraph clarifies my opinion.

Still, Putin is now suggesting he wants to reinstall the previous regime in Ukraine. I see him attempting to keep the rest of Ukraine as a puppet state while annexing Crimea.

He just said very clearly that there was no political future for Yanukovich and that he is interested just as everybody else is that the new election be held transparently and that he is ready to work with any legitimate government. He views Ukraine's Acting President as illegitimate, the Parliament as partly legitimate so it is not entirely impossible for Russia to have some state-level dialogue with the current regime. This of course can all be smoke and mirrors, but such are his statements.

I didn't say you did. I'm asking.

Given Putin's denial of having sent any troops anywhere to begin with, I must say I am confused. I need to read that transcript to understand his position better.

What evidence, anyway, do we have that (1) more Russian troops were sent to Crimea; (2) Russian troops intervened in any way?

 

[russ_watters]

*blink* What evidence? Have you read or watched ANY news on this issue?

 

[Borek]

I can't remember now if I have heard about Russians sending additional troops to Crimea - they have quite a force there since collapse of Soviet Union, in the naval base in Sevastopol. I recall hearing about troops being relocated to the Ukrainian borders near Kharkiv and Donetsk.

For sure their forces were moving around Crimea outside of the base.

 

[voko]

Yeah, SOME. Here is a recent bit: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/04/stop-or-we-ll-shoot-standoff-at-ukraine-s-belbek-base/

"... attempted to speak with the pro-Russian troops guarding the base."

"Ukraine has accused the Kremlin of seizing key border posts and deploying 16,000 Russian troops in the region since last Friday."

"Russia has so far denied their troops are on the ground saying local forces are securing the area."

What do you make of that?

 

[Czcibor]

Yeah, SOME. Here is a recent bit: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/04/stop-or-we-ll-shoot-standoff-at-ukraine-s-belbek-base/

"... attempted to speak with the pro-Russian troops guarding the base."

"Ukraine has accused the Kremlin of seizing key border posts and deploying 16,000 Russian troops in the region since last Friday."

"Russia has so far denied their troops are on the ground saying local forces are securing the area."

What do you make of that?

That Putin as usual lying, this time about troops that he has sent there? Including those that he asked first to take off Russian uniforms?

By occasion one of Polish newspapers made a list of 9 best (out of reality) quotations from Putin speech, sorry, in Polish, so only for Borek:
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomo...ali_w_Kijowie_byli_szkoleni.html#BoxSlotI3img

Inlcuding the best: "People, who were shoting, had been trained in Poland".

 

[voko]

Looking at some of their gear, the uniformed gunmen without insignia do appear to be of the Russian military. I was not checking that thoroughly when the original news came, assuming there was reason to lie about that, but after Putin's statement I felt some more scrutiny was necessary.

So, according to him, they then must be from the original Black Sea Fleet contingent in Crimea, implementing extended security measures for Russian military assets there. I think this still does not quite square with some reports, but may be plausible enough for a détente.

 

[voko]

That Putin as usual lying, this time about troops that he has sent there?

That still remains to be demonstrated. There were Russian troops before the whole thing started.

 

[Dotini]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26429659
Today appears to be a day of calm and hope. Russian forces wargaming along the border have returned to barracks. Negotiations have broken out. Remarkably, Gazprom continues gas deliveries for which Ukraine is unable to pay, and further extends credit.

 

[OmCheeto]

Yeah, SOME. Here is a recent bit: http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/04/stop-or-we-ll-shoot-standoff-at-ukraine-s-belbek-base/

"... attempted to speak with the pro-Russian troops guarding the base."

"Ukraine has accused the Kremlin of seizing key border posts and deploying 16,000 Russian troops in the region since last Friday."

"Russia has so far denied their troops are on the ground saying local forces are securing the area."

What do you make of that?

It would seem that some Ukrainians like the fact that the Russians have come to visit.

Simferopol, Ukraine - In the Crimean capital, an uneasy calm pervades much of the city, where Russian troops are positioned along some of the main streets and local residents attempt to carry on with their daily lives.

Support for the Russian "invasion" appears widespread in the city, with Russian flags on display throughout the capital. There are also small but daily rallies held in a show of support for the Russian presence and as a declaration for disdain for the protesters in Kiev and for Ukraine's new government.

Beneath one of the images:

Members of a "self defence force" guard masked gunmen, who are widely understood to be Russian soldiers.

(ref)

 

[MarneMath]

I couldn't find the original video on CNN, but I watched it on TV. Those aren't tanks. Those are self-propelled artillery which is definitely a bigger deal than tanks. It implies an expectation of land battle against land armies at a distance.