News Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

[DevilsAvocado]

... Russian naval ships are trying to block a Ukrainian flagship, returning from an African anti-pirate assignment, passing through the Bosphorus (Istanbul Strait) entering the Black Sea, escorted by Turkish naval ships, eight Turkish F16 fighter jets has also been seen on the location ...

Madeleine Albright on CNN: "Russian president is delusional"

The strict rules of this forum forbids me to express my true opinion regarding all this, all I can say that this woman seems to be very intelligent, with a proper analysis of the situation.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcMP1sYiTno
http://www.youtube.com/embed/pcMP1sYiTno

 

[voko]

... Russian naval ships are trying to block a Ukrainian flagship, returning from an African anti-pirate assignment, passing through the Bosphorus (Istanbul Strait) entering the Black Sea, escorted by Turkish naval ships, eight Turkish F16 fighter jets has also been seen on the location ... [/I]

Isn't that the ship that we were given conflicting news about a couple of days ago, like it was defecting to Russia or staying loyal to Ukraine? BTW, I have tried to locate this news, but I get this: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...aines-flagship-hetman-sahaidachny-338366.html, according to which: "A Ukrainian defense ministry statement earlier today said that as of 8 a.m. the nation’s flagship vessel had passed through the Dardanalles Strait in Turkey. It was accompanied by the Turkish pleasure craft Rusen Bey. " What's your source?

 

[StevieTNZ]

A few statements made in our Parliament regarding this situation:

http://www.inthehouse.co.nz/video/31684
and
http://www.inthehouse.co.nz/video/31686

Our Minister of Trade has stopped talks with Russia about a free-trade agreement.

 

[Crazymechanic]

the problem with this thread is that it is overly american.
You all are quite smart people I must say , many of you know more than the average person and still you fail to realize one very simple thing.
Every country has it's interests and spheres of influence also geopolitical, now every big country has the same things they are just bigger. So the world superpowers like Russia , China, US, all have their interests and buffer zones.

Mr.Putin didn't pay me to write this , be assured but you have to realize that Russia will not allow a pro western CIA controlled or overthrown government right next to it's doorstep,

The same thing has happened ever since and honestly the US isn't any better. Half of Latin america is under the influence of US and the governments are not only pro US sometimes they are even directly coordinated from the US intelligence etc.
Russia is doing the same thing and has been doing it ever since with the helf od the all wise KGB , the only thing is that russians like it with a louder bang so to speak of , so instead of covertly doing this they just go in and say , this is part of our interest etc.

I'm not saying that innocent poeple should die but the radicals in Ukraine are not all that friendly and good , later it will turn out just like the CIA who sponsored the mujahedin agaisnt Soviet Union , first they fought the enemy , then they backfired and started to kill americans with their own guns. In the free time they kill each other for any reason that comes to mind.

The Russian backed president stole some money that is for sure but the pro western leaders are just as wealthy if not more , honestly all the US and EU care is a pro western government but no matter who is in charge they steal nevertheless and corruption is not in US intersst anymore , as long as the president sings the " right song" all other things are second hand interests if at all.So the people of Ukraine will not benefit from a western government just as they will not from a pro Russian one , sadly but true.

+ the fact already mentioned by a Mentor here that Crimea was indeed part of Russia as was given to Ukraine actually just as a symbol of goodwill , so quite honestly if you ask me , if after all these years a situation has broken out which is dangerous to both countries , let them have it back , they don't care as much as the west does't , it;s only about how close can we get to Russian borders for the west that interests them.

I would suggest for everyone posting here to have or atleast try to have a more in depth understanding of European history , the history of the USSR, and the sentiment of slavic people.

Quite frankly Putin may be a liar and a cruel leader but let's face it , ukraine is full of extremists , and as much as I have seen from my own experience , the ones that are most active in such situations are the radicals and much less the ordinary people.
Revolutions are not fought by everyday working class people , every revolution and country has pretended they are but their not and everyone who knows something and reads alittle bit understands that.
One must ask who are these poeple , are all of them representing the people of Ukraine and what is there interest , one isn't risking his life for no good reason , even the terrorists have a reason and quite frankly a deep one.

 

[DennisN]

I couldn't find the original video on CNN, but I watched it on TV. Those aren't tanks. Those are self-propelled artillery which is definitely a bigger deal than tanks. It implies an expectation of land battle against land armies at a distance.

Good observation. This crisis is complicated, and could get more complicated. If Ukraine launch a counterattack on Crimea, Russia will have a/another* reason to launch an attack on East Ukraine.

* They may already have a reason, of course. I don't know their plans.

 

[MarneMath]

Crazymechanic, I think most people here understand that Russia has a vested interest in protecting the Russian Sphere of influence. However, the question is more about what overt action are you willing to take in order to protect the buffer zone, and whether protecting a buffer zone, can be considered in the international community as a legit reason to 'invade' a sovereign country. While the American media will make Putin seem as insane and cruel, I'm sure he isn't acting from a completely irrational state like a leader from North Korea would. He's clearly an intelligent and tactically sound person, and has a clear goal of reestablishing dominance of the Russian Sphere. Also, this event isn't surprising, especially since within the last 5 years, he's basically called the Ukraine and Georgia his redline. Clearly, he doesn't want NATO countries on his door step. So, I'm sure everyone here understands this and is aware of this, even if it is going unstated.

The rest of your post is a bit to speculative for me to comment on.

 

[mheslep]

Russia already has a couple NATO member countries on its border. If the Russian Federation were to be successful in annexing all of Ukraine, then it would have four more NATO countries on the border.

 

[MarneMath]

Of course, Lativia, and Estonia if I remember correctly. Still doesn't change the fact that he clearly doesn't want NATO countries next door. I also highly doubt his goal is to annex the Ukraine. It seems as if he would prefer to let Ukraine remain Ukraine but with strong Russian ties.

 

[Czcibor]

the problem with this thread is that it is overly american.
You all are quite smart people I must say , many of you know more than the average person and still you fail to realize one very simple thing.
Every country has it's interests and spheres of influence also geopolitical, now every big country has the same things they are just bigger. So the world superpowers like Russia , China, US, all have their interests and buffer zones.

I think that while trying to fight with US bias, you replaced it with big power bias. What if people of a medium size country does not want to have a corrupted puppet even when big players wants so?

Mr.Putin didn't pay me to write this , be assured but you have to realize that Russia will not allow a pro western CIA controlled or overthrown government right next to it's doorstep

CIA? What about an idea of local people being just angry, and next steps of regime only agreviating the situation, until its collapse? (the protests started as small pro-EU, but after proper beating of demonstrators by Berkut they turned into big anti-Yanukovich)

I'm not saying that innocent poeple should die but the radicals in Ukraine are not all that friendly and good , later it will turn out just like the CIA who sponsored the mujahedin agaisnt Soviet Union , first they fought the enemy , then they backfired and started to kill americans with their own guns. In the free time they kill each other for any reason that comes to mind.

Well, if regime starts shooting, then local people indeed radicalize. Please explain this let's say... very orginal... scenario in which Ukrainians would start killing Americans.

The Russian backed president stole some money that is for sure but the pro western leaders are just as wealthy if not more , honestly all the US and EU care is a pro western government but no matter who is in charge they steal nevertheless and corruption is not in US intersst anymore , as long as the president sings the " right song" all other things are second hand interests if at all.So the people of Ukraine will not benefit from a western government just as they will not from a pro Russian one , sadly but true.

I wouldn't find condition of Western Ukraine much worse than condition of my country after communism collapse.

+ the fact already mentioned by a Mentor here that Crimea was indeed part of Russia as was given to Ukraine actually just as a symbol of goodwill , so quite honestly if you ask me , if after all these years a situation has broken out which is dangerous to both countries , let them have it back , they don't care as much as the west does't , it;s only about how close can we get to Russian borders for the west that interests them.

What about... Alasca? ;)

I would suggest for everyone posting here to have or atleast try to have a more in depth understanding of European history , the history of the USSR, and the sentiment of slavic people.

Same request for you, from a person belonging to one of Slavic nations.

 

[Crazymechanic]

You can request all you want , my father was slavic and I too come from the ex soviet union , trust me I know stuff. :)

I wasn't quite clear on the CIA stuff, I didn't said that CIA starts riots in other countries, but they do use them for their own interests and have done so several times , many of them well documented even in their own archives.
What a perfect opportunity for the White house to expand when the people of Ukraine ask for western influence directly.
Ofcourse we have to keep in mind that Putin and also White House know more about the situation than we do so that makes our discussion kinda incomplete.

About the Berkut special forces shooting civilians , well honestly their actions compared to similar ones from history seemed very very peaceful, they just protected the few important buildings that a state needs to atleast function and that was their job which they have agreed upon by law and their duty so what do you expect them to do ? Let every wild protester jump and crash and hit things burning tires and doing random actions?
If something on such a scale would have happened ijn Russia or back in the USSR , all of the protesters would have been killed or in prison by now.So from such a perspective I would call the government action kinda peaceful.

Also one must remeber that even though the main idea comes from the people those who fight on the streets sometimes go not only against law but against any normal civilized understanding , it's just human psychology , mass effect etc.So in every such overthrown and national instability one must be ready for casualties.

And I never said that Ukrainians would kill americans, i said that about the muslim terrorists , read carefully.

I wouldn't find condition of Western Ukraine much worse than condition of my country after communism collapse.

Well there are differences , from all the ex communist states the Baltic states are far superior , in everyday language I could say their some 15 years ahead of what Ukraine is now. And much of the export from those countries goes to Russia as well as to western countries.

The best possible scnenario for a country near Russia would be to be neutral , that would be both acceptable for Russia and the country itself , the only problem is it's a illusion tha one can remain neutral in Europe between Russia and the EU +the US

Oh and by the way, Crimea cannot be compared to Alaska , as Alaska was given away to americans for money , aka it was bought. Crimea on the other hand was a Russian territory until it was passed over to Ukraine under the soviet rule , it;'s not nice to take away your own gifts after a while but atleast it;'s not like they take something that has never been theirs.

 

[mheslep]

...it;'s not like they take something that has never been theirs.

Alaska was part of Russia for centuries, like Crimea, though that is incidental. The important point is that a character like Putin may want both Crimea and Alaska; the difference being that he only has a shot at Crimea (this week).

 

[Vanadium 50]

Russia already has a couple NATO member countries on its border.

Of course, Lativia, and Estonia if I remember correctly.

More than that: also Lithuania, Poland, Norway, and arguably the United States.

The whole "buffer zone" argument doesn't work any better in the 21st century than the 18th. The problem is when A invades B as a buffer against enemy C, it loses B as a buffer and is now ironically closer to its enemy. However, as history shows, this doesn't keep countries from trying.

 

[lisab]

Alaska was part of Russia for centuries, like Crimea, though that is incidental. The important point is that a character like Putin may want both Crimea and Alaska; the difference being that he only has a shot at Crimea (this week).

Alaska has no ties to Russia. You could go all over that state and you'd never know it was ever a part of Russia. Well, there are a few of those onion-dome Orthodox churches here and there, mostly for tourists. No language ties, no cultural ties. When I lived there in the 80s there were no economic ties, not sure about now.

I bet New York City has more Russian influence than Alaska!

 

[voko]

a character like Putin

What does that mean?

 

[OmCheeto]

Today at work, it is rumored, that a Ukrainian green carder, told a Russian green carder, that; "The Ukraine has enough missiles to level Moscow...".



Where's Rodney King when you need him.

 

[voko]

Alaska has no ties to Russia. You could go all over that state and you'd never know it was ever a part of Russia.

I remember seeing a while go (long ago, so can't remember any details) on a channel like Discovery a documentary showing there were towns or perhaps villages that were still somewhat Russian - Russian as in Russian Empire, not as in Russian Federation. Fake?

 

[Dotini]

There was a revolution in Ukraine in order to turn towards the EU.

The US says the EU absolutely must support a regime of sanctions against Russia. But maybe the EU says "not so fast", and has different ideas, at least awaiting the outcome of negotiations. Has Obama been sold a bill of goods by his own State Department? How is he to act forcefully and effectively if the EU does not follow suit?

 

[voko]

But maybe the EU says "not so fast", and has different ideas, at least awaiting the outcome of negotiations.

Kerry and Lavrov meet in Paris in a few hours, so that position would not be irrational.

 

[DennisN]

Ukraine Crisis - V. Putin's latest Press Conference [04.03.2014] (full length):
(From yesterday. I just found it, I haven't seen the entire clip yet, I'm watching it right now)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hg_4D_qR18s

 

[Vanadium 50]

But what is there to interest the USA here, except for those who want to carry on fighting the Cold War?

One interest is that the Administration does not look like a bunch of mopes who have been caught by surprise. Related to that, had the Administration kept quiet, one could have argued that these were distant events in faraway places of little relevance, but once the President has said that there will be consequences, there have to be for the US to remain credible overseas.

A second interest is in nuclear nonproliferation. The US and Russia have both agreed to ensure the territorial integrity of the Ukraine, in exchange for giving up their nuclear weapons. Russia has now violated this agreement. I don't think Russia would have sent troops if the Ukraine were still a nuclear power, and I suspect many countries share this view. So being a nuclear power looks a lot more attractive than it did last week. If the US does not fulfill its end of the bargain, it will look even more attractive.

Might we see Japan go nuclear? Saudi Arabia? Kazakhstan? The answer to that question is clearly in the US interest.

 

[lisab]

I remember seeing a while go (long ago, so can't remember any details) on a channel like Discovery a documentary showing there were towns or perhaps villages that were still somewhat Russian - Russian as in Russian Empire, not as in Russian Federation. Fake?

Well Alaska is a big place, so I can't say such places don't exist. But the villages I visited (mostly while fishing off the Aleutian Islands) were American with a strong native cultural influence - specifically, Inuit. The kids were culturally *totally* American.

The villages all had Orthodox churches but I can't say how much those churches were Russian influenced (my guess would be none), or how much the villagers were influenced by them.

I can't imagine people in those villages would choose to be Russian over American, to be honest. Seriously, if Putin thinks he could do something similar in Alaska based on historical "provenance", he'd be profoundly wrong.

 

[voko]

The official translation of yesterday's press conference: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/6763 . It appears unfinished yet. A summary of statements:

Events in Kiev amount to an anti-constitutional coup
Former President Yanukovych has no political future
Russian forces have not taken part in operations in Crimea
Russia is not thinking of annexing Crimea
Threat of sanctions from the West is counter-productive
Russian actions in Ukraine are in accordance with international law
Russia will not recognise the outcome of upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine if the current "terror" continues

(from here)

 

[voko]

I can't imagine people in those villages would choose to be Russian over American, to be honest. Seriously, if Putin thinks he could do something similar in Alaska based on historical "provenance", he'd be profoundly wrong.

I do not think anyone would be seriously considering that. My question was caused purely by my recollection from that documentary that there was still some Russian heritage in Alaska beyond just church houses.

I think the documentary was about this place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolaevsk,_Alaska which is a new settlement.

 

[SteamKing]

Well Alaska is a big place, so I can't say such places don't exist. But the villages I visited (mostly while fishing off the Aleutian Islands) were American with a strong native cultural influence - specifically, Inuit. The kids were culturally *totally* American.

The villages all had Orthodox churches but I can't say how much those churches were Russian influenced (my guess would be none), or how much the villagers were influenced by them.

I can't imagine people in those villages would choose to be Russian over American, to be honest. Seriously, if Putin thinks he could do something similar in Alaska based on historical "provenance", he'd be profoundly wrong.

Doesn't matter if they pray for a restoration of the Romanovs and sing Russian lullabies every night before they go to sleep. Alaska was purchased straight up by the US from Russia in 1867 for $7.2 million. The Aleut tribes which still live in Alaska have a stronger claim to the territory than Putin.

 

[russ_watters]

One interest is that the Administration does not look like a bunch of mopes who have been caught by surprise.

A second interest is in nuclear nonproliferation.

3: Iran, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan...the UN...etc. The US and Russia are still superpowers and the rivalry still has significant impacts on other geopolitical crises. Russia's actions here add further complications in other such cases. We spent weeks discussing and dithering over what to do about Syria, while Russia just took instant action in Crimea (while, laughably, criticizing our actions in Afghanistan and Iraq for being too unilateral ). Putin is outmaneuvering the West at every turn and it just keeps getting worse.

 

[OmCheeto]

Ukraine Crisis - V. Putin's latest Press Conference [04.03.2014] (full length):
(From yesterday. I just found it, I haven't seen the entire clip yet, I'm watching it right now)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hg_4D_qR18s

:thumbs:

ps. Do you know, that this conversation, is about 1 hour, 6 minutes, and 3 seconds, beyond most people's attention span?

 

[DennisN]

I've seen the entire press conference now. It was a very, very talkative Putin, and some of the things he said were:

• He does not recognize the current government in Ukraine, he considers it illegitimate. He calls the Ukrainian revolution a "coup", and talks loosely about it as being backed by/supported by "the West".
  
• He denies there are Russian troops in Ukraine/Crimea, and said that the troops are local self-defense forces.
  
• He said that the Crimean people has the right to decide the future of Crimea.
  
• He said he currently did not see the need to take any military action, but did not exclude it either.
  
• And much, much more... listen to it all if you want to.

 

[DennisN]

:thumbs:
ps. Do you know, that this conversation, is about 1 hour, 6 minutes, and 3 seconds, beyond most people's attention span?

Thanks! Yes, I know . But there might be folks here who have the patience. I had the patience .

 

[OmCheeto]

I've seen the entire press conference now. It was a very, very talkative Putin, and some of the things he said were:

• He does not recognize the current government in Ukraine, he considers it illegitimate. He calls the Ukrainian revolution a "coup", and talks loosely about it as being backed by/supported by "the West".
  
• He denies there are Russian troops in Ukraine/Crimea, and said that the troops are local self-defense forces.
  
• He said that the Crimean people has the right to decide the future of Crimea.
  
• He said he currently did not see the need to take any military action, but did not exclude it either.
  
• And much, much more... listen to it all if you want to.

I only had to watch 2 minutes worth.
He is not an idiot.

Now it's time for bed.

 

[jim hardy]

it IS on Russia's doorstep, not ours.

I wonder - what if the tables were turned , say US Virgin Islands were trying to ally with Cuba ?
Should Putin call for sanctions when we intervene ?

 

[nsaspook]

One interest is that the Administration does not look like a bunch of mopes who have been caught by surprise. Related to that, had the Administration kept quiet, one could have argued that these were distant events in faraway places of little relevance, but once the President has said that there will be consequences, there have to be for the US to remain credible overseas.

My 2c on the current US response, The 'Administration' of course in this day and age was not caught by surprise, someone has the 'bad news bears' job. This scenario was in the cards for a long time so they most likely have a rational game plan to play that might be right or wrong depending on your viewpoint. Looking at past US responses you can see that simply playing into Mr. Putins 'chip on the shoulder' view will push him into doing things that seem counter-productive short-term but still might fit into some long term utopian dream of Russia empire and wealth. The Cold War ended up splitting up and bankrupting the country so I don't think that's where he's headed. IMO his plan is for Russia seems for it to be reunited under some historic version of Russia that's an Orthodox/Russian nationalism identity that his power base is manipulating for their own benefit...

“The revolution is not an apple that falls when it is ripe. You have to make it fall.” -Che Guevara

 

[Czcibor]

About the Berkut special forces shooting civilians , well honestly their actions compared to similar ones from history seemed very very peaceful, they just protected the few important buildings that a state needs to atleast function and that was their job which they have agreed upon by law and their duty so what do you expect them to do ? Let every wild protester jump and crash and hit things burning tires and doing random actions?
If something on such a scale would have happened ijn Russia or back in the USSR , all of the protesters would have been killed or in prison by now.So from such a perspective I would call the government action kinda peaceful.

No, I mean here:
-heavy beating of protesters at start. At that point it was not specially against Yanukovych. With no effort he could call a referendum which would both buy him time a lot of time and with proper wording he could have make it win by asking multi-vector policy.
-Operations done by Yanukovych thugs (Titushky) including beating, kidnapping, sabotage, arson and false flag operations
-At the end - ordering snipers shot to kill (even if you treat it as war, shooting to a medic with big red cross would count as war crime)

And I never said that Ukrainians would kill americans, i said that about the muslim terrorists , read carefully.

You used such... original analogy so I wanted you to elaborate that. So maybe that analogy that you used was just out of reality?

Well there are differences , from all the ex communist states the Baltic states are far superior , in everyday language I could say their some 15 years ahead of what Ukraine is now. And much of the export from those countries goes to Russia as well as to western countries.

I compared it to Poland 25 years ago so I don't see here any

The best possible scnenario for a country near Russia would be to be neutral , that would be both acceptable for Russia and the country itself , the only problem is it's a illusion tha one can remain neutral in Europe between Russia and the EU +the US

Best possible? Not many years ago some "wise" people from Western Europe were explaining us, that we have to be doomed forever because we were occupied in some period by Russians and have to remain in their zone of influence.
Now the best scenario? Use the Russian aggression to the... advantage. It could be seen as the best way of uniting Ukrainian nation against Russia and make country pro-West. Use such motive to get an impulse for reforms.

Oh and by the way, Crimea cannot be compared to Alaska , as Alaska was given away to americans for money , aka it was bought. Crimea on the other hand was a Russian territory until it was passed over to Ukraine under the soviet rule , it;'s not nice to take away your own gifts after a while but atleast it;'s not like they take something that has never been theirs.

I'm not sure how do you define "was Russian territory"? I mean ethnically speaking until Stalin mass deportation it was an area populated by Crimean Tatars (Turkish people). So it was rather deporting all local population just a few years before making it a gift. Those Turks that returned are strongly pro-Ukraine.
Actually just after Alaska was bought by Americans, huge amount of natural resources were discovered. By Putin standards calling such transaction a fraud that has to be canceled would be still more truthful, than claiming that Russian majority in Ukraine is being prosecuted.

 

[voko]

I mean ethnically speaking until Stalin mass deportation it was an area populated by Crimean Tatars (Turkish people). So it was rather deporting all local population just a few years before making it a gift.

Ethnically speaking that area was populated by many different ethnic groups, long before there were any Crimean Tatars at all. By the time of the mass deportation Crimean Tatars accounted for about 25% of the Crimean population, so that was by no means "deporting all local population", no matter how tragic the event was.

 

[Crazymechanic]

Czcibor I see where you come from and also your political preferences , even though I must say that a lot of jewish poeple disagree on matters about Russia , not to mention that some important figures , jewish by decent actually made the Soviet Union the way it was and influenced one of the worlds all time craziest revolutions, aka the communist revolution in 1917 in Russia.
I rather guess you probably come from Ukraine or close to that place as that would describe your viewpoint.

Also it is useless to talk about Russia stepping into Alaska , Alaska is long gone from Russia even long before Russia turned from a monarchy empire to a communist by dream , socialist by nature , union.Also Alaska is not exactly at the doorstep of Kremlins politics and it belongs to the US , probably the only country that Russia has ever feared, while thinking how to destroy it at the same time.

@Vanadium , well I really doubt that if Ukraine would still have their old soviet left over atom bombs they would really use them against Russia, also I strongly doubt that Krelim would be afraid of Ukraine just because they would have bombs , the only difference probably would be that instead of just going right in like through an open door , they would use much more KGB (read FSB) intelligence and covert operations to gain the same result.

to what Czcibor said about that he thinks ordinary peple pretty much do these riot on their own , I can't agree.The protests may have started fueled by the anger of poeple but they are soon enough also used by all kinds of interest groups that hope to gain influence. Second of all there are plenty of nationalists and all kinds of extremists in Ukraine , just because it's not Afghanistan does't mean there cannot be radical extremist poeple around, there are and plenty of them , they just speak a different language and don;'t look like your average tv shown terrorist but the mentality is similar.
I live in the Baltics and we have enough of all kinds of extremists lying around.Even though we are considered a peaceful place both back in the USSR and now.
Also the snipers shooting protesters might be the work of the government and it might be the work of sabotage from some radicals , because the last thing Yanukovych needed was a government sniper shooting red cross medics, trust me , think about this for a while , it's not that tis picture is purely one side white the other black , the colors mix inbetween and the gains and policies of both sides are uin question here.


@Russ_Watters sooner or later Russia would have risen to world politics and affairs again after the collapse of the USSR , I think no one actually doubted that.
And quite honeastly I doubt that with another man in Kremlin the policy would be totally different, living near Russia I ahve seen and heard many crazy people that would like to be in Kremlin so maybe Putin is not that bad after all.
There is one thing a russian student told me some time ago when we talked about similar matters, he said Russia is a country that needs a strong leader , otherwise things can quickly escalate intio unknown territory , and with a powerful country (atleas military) and nuclear weapons trust me you rather want someone like Putin who seeks to expand but is not dumb than someone who is simply crazy.

Don't worry folks , Putin is not dumb , his just playing the game , he knows how far he can go at each instant and how far he wants to , it may not be nice from aside and it may be violent at times but in overall it;s a contained situation , the rest of the world has nothing to worry about.

Now a different situation is if countries like Kazakhstan would have " the bomb"

Also thank God Ukraine gave away it's nuclear weapons back in the day , because with a situation as unstable as they have now , such a thing lying around could be pretty troublesome.Even without Russia stepping in.

 

[russ_watters]

it IS on Russia's doorstep, not ours.

I wonder - what if the tables were turned , say US Virgin Islands were trying to ally with Cuba ?
Should Putin call for sanctions when we intervene ?

Align how? Why would we intervene? Again, this sounds like a decades-dead idea of a buffer.

 

[jim hardy]

Align how? Why would we intervene? Again, this sounds like a decades-dead idea of a buffer.

Why would we intervene? Because there's a lot of US citizens there who want to remain so.
Why did Britain steam the fleet to Falklands ?
Also we protect strategic interests, Grenada overlooks the deep water submarine access to Caribbean and we didn't want that Soviet runway for sub-chaser airplanes there.
Check nautical chart #400. http://nauticalcharts.com/caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-chart-details.htm


Am i so out of date?

 

[voko]

Why would we intervene? Because there's a lot of US citizens there who want to remain so.
Why did Britain steam the fleet to Falklands ?

I think there is some confusion. These days much is said about protecting the "Russians" in Crimea (and other parts of Ukraine), but that is not the same as the "citizens of the Russian Federation". It would be more correct to call them "Russian Crimeans" (or "Russian Ukrainians"), in the same way we speak of, for example, "Italian Americans", which means US citizens of Italian ancestry.

So I do not think there is a valid analogy with protecting US citizens or UK subjects in some remote location. There could have been a valid cause when those people became Ukrainian involuntarily twenty years ago; these days, however, it seems too late to play that card.

The "interest" thing is a wholly different matter, though.

 

[Czcibor]

Czcibor I see where you come from and also your political preferences , even though I must say that a lot of jewish poeple disagree on matters about Russia , not to mention that some important figures , jewish by decent actually made the Soviet Union the way it was and influenced one of the worlds all time craziest revolutions, aka the communist revolution in 1917 in Russia.
I rather guess you probably come from Ukraine or close to that place as that would describe your viewpoint.

I actually live in western Poland.
If my motives are somewhat unclear:
-I perceive Russia as the last geopolitical threat to my country, otherwise I could live in Fukuyama's end of history.
-I perceive Ukrainians as similar Slavic nation, with the difference that we were geographically still more lucky - closer to core of western civilization which facilitated culture diffusion, we were only scratched by Mongols and we had shorter Soviet rule. I see the situation in the same way as Americans would see an occupied Canadian province by an enemy the USA would not be able to challenge alone.
-I see concessions to Putin as equivalent of appeasement policy from late '30s - both as ethical and as effective.

Also it is useless to talk about Russia stepping into Alaska , Alaska is long gone from Russia even long before Russia turned from a monarchy empire to a communist by dream , socialist by nature , union.Also Alaska is not exactly at the doorstep of Kremlins politics and it belongs to the US , probably the only country that Russia has ever feared, while thinking how to destroy it at the same time.

The difference here is the firepower (including nuclear arsenal) of US army.

to what Czcibor said about that he thinks ordinary peple pretty much do these riot on their own , I can't agree.The protests may have started fueled by the anger of poeple but they are soon enough also used by all kinds of interest groups that hope to gain influence. Second of all there are plenty of nationalists and all kinds of extremists in Ukraine , just because it's not Afghanistan does't mean there cannot be radical extremist poeple around, there are and plenty of them , they just speak a different language and don;'t look like your average tv shown terrorist but the mentality is similar.
I live in the Baltics and we have enough of all kinds of extremists lying around.Even though we are considered a peaceful place both back in the USSR and now.

The extremism is even more severe in Russia (nationalism mixed with racism) or... if you mentioned Jews... in Israel (Hasid religious extremism). I don't see such accusation as valid point concerning Ukraine, unless it is an argument against democracy in general.

Damn it, if I had such Russian mending and was seeing ineptness of international community, I'd presumably also see nationalism as the last hope. Would you behave differently under such conditions?

Also the snipers shooting protesters might be the work of the government and it might be the work of sabotage from some radicals , because the last thing Yanukovych needed was a government sniper shooting red cross medics, trust me , think about this for a while , it's not that tis picture is purely one side white the other black , the colors mix inbetween and the gains and policies of both sides are uin question here.

You assume that he would follow way of thinking typical among western politicians. Merkel presumably did the same wrong assumption while saying that Putin “lost contact with reality” and is “living in another world.”

It's all quite logical if we assume that the person in power is not a western politician but a corrupted dictator that uses firepower and intimidation as his standard technique of holding the power. And Yanukovych might still think that the only error was not hiring enough snipers.

Also thank God Ukraine gave away it's nuclear weapons back in the day , because with a situation as unstable as they have now , such a thing lying around could be pretty troublesome.Even without Russia stepping in.

From geopolitical perspective I see nuclear deadlock as preferable equilibrium to contemporary situation.

 

[Crazymechanic]

So Czcibor , and what if the snipers were not government forces? have you ever thought about that one , or is CNN propoganda so strong that one just cannot resist it's magical and soft fingers?

I'm not saying that Russians don't use propoganda , they do and quite often , I'm just saying that critical thinking is a pretty rare phenomenon to western people.Not talking baout you specifically here.

I don't have the ranks or clearances to get to all the information , but I can tell you that if indeed the snipers were not from Yanukovych, then there are only two other sources from where they might have came from.
First option is russian FSB special taskforce , undercover yada yada yada, or and I should probably say OR they are from withing the protesters movement. I do believe the average protester knows nothing about them but trust me there are forces using this movement for their own good and they are at work.

Here is why I doubt the snipers being from Yanukovych or the russians, the situation got out of hand , Russia and the FSB is smart they know that these days people film videos live , upload them on youtube and that the west is watching , why would they make the situation so much worse by killing poeple from and here is also the important part " BOTH SIDES" with snipers?
Think about it ? You would say to cause a reason for russian forces to interact , but then again other crackpots go around and say that the US needed to blow up the WTC and cause 9/11 to have a reason for war in Afghanistan while they actualy had a million reasons before if they wanted to.
These two arguments are flawed because they are without a logic.

Do you really think Putin needed to kill innocent medical personel and unarmed protesters from a few snipers to have a reason for invading Crimea , I doubt so , the plan for invasion was probably long before the guys at maidan started to throw rocks at berkut government forces backing Yanukovych.
When the snipers shot , Yanukovych was already out of power and running for his life towards Russia , do you think that the best idea he and his advisers could have come up with is , " HEY, they hate us so much they want to kill us , let's make it worse , let's kill some innocent nurses trying to cure some unarmed protesters" ?
I think there are third parties involved here heavily , and honestly I doubt this all is going to something good as a result.

And if you really think Russia is the only evil in the world then all I can do is feel sorry for a lack of knowledge.

Oh and another thing , please , I don't want to insuklt anyone but I must say one thing.
Whenever you give freedom to extremists and idiots all you get as a result is anarchy and chaos.
This is a generalization , I'm not saying that all people of Ukraine are under these two categories , but I;m saying that people who are in these categories are trying to use this situation and it's not healthy.

P.S. there is a saying mostly attributed back in the day to the French revolution which goes like " revolutions devour their own children " One should also think about this.

 

[Naty1]

Lots of interesting perspectives.

While barechested Vlad was moving troops around during his showcase winter olympics, as usual the passive West ignored it as long as they could. The US administration was apparently lost in imagined visions akin to Kerry's whining about '21st century G8 behavior', the EU lost with their heads in the sands of suffocating tax and spend and expensive green energy programs, all the while Vlad correctly calculating '19th century invade and grab' would again work just fine in the face of the feckless West. How could anyone be surprised?

I can think of a few precedents...in no particular order,

Hitler invaded the Sudetendland to 'rescue' native Germans, then the rest of Czechoslovakia;
North Korea invaded the South to 'unify' that territory;
China wants Japanese Islands "always part of Russia';
Saddam invaded to Kuwait becuase 'it was always part of Iraq' ,
That mean 'ol Assad just won't let go of his country
Russia wants to take over its former territory of Ukraine...oh Gee, what a surprise...
And Russia took over parts of Georgia during one of the Bush administrations,

So Russia had been massing troops during Putin's signature Olympics not so far away in Sochi...Did THAT miss the genius Obama's 'super intellect' and his " intelligence" agencies? The Secretary of State Hillary's keenly honed diplomatic corps missed this too...How could that be?...Oh, wait, I forgot, they even missed Benghazi just over a year ago... Nobody in the media knew about the troop movements?? Somebody in the EU must have noticed.

Crimea and likely the entire Ukraine are ESSENTIAL to Russian influence, economic power and energy supply to the EU. 16,000 Russian troops in should be no surprise to anyone with any practical sense. Russia is a second rate country with somewhat better armed forces: But the EU and US GDP are each on the order of $17T...while Russia is just over $2T...You mean we are worred what Russia might do to us economically?? Just how much of an advantage does the west require??

The poor clueless Kerry and Obama, and perhaps the EU as well, just don't seem to understand that the strong set the rules...and winners write history...and those rules usually conform with territorial acquisition, economic strength and power plays. "THE CHICKENS HAVE COME HOME TO ROOST" ...Russia hasn't touched a NATO country in what over 60 years?? Isn't it obvious why? In contrast The US 'reset' with Russia is an utter disaster...and that is also obvious why.

Kerry's whining that a 'G8' country shouldn't be playing by 19th century rules [invading other countries] is yet another clear indication of the fantasy land of US liberal foreign policy speak: Why doesn't the world behave according to their preconceived dogma? People just never do what they are 'supposed' to do!

I keep hearing the EU won't do much because they are dependent on Russia energy...oil, gas...But Russia would collapse without EU funds to sustain them...Would Russia, could Russia shoot themselves in the foot...Vlad is no dummy.

KGB trained Vlad will do just fine in all this. Anyway, good luck and long life to Ukranians. They will need it.

PS: I have heard 20% of the population of Eastern Ukraine are Tatars??...you remember, those were among the millions Stalin removed from parts of the Ukraine to forced labor camps in one of his purges...they also constitute part of the population of Crimea...I'm guessing they'd like to be further away from Russia dominance than they are right now...

 

[Naty1]

...and what if the snipers were not government forces?

What a great opportunity for radicals of any sort to create instability and chaos. Put on somebody's else uniforms...Apparently that whole region has considerable radical activity.

 

[jim hardy]

Dennis Kucinich suggests a military motive
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dennis-j-kucinich/ukraine-nato_b_4435637.html

..But while the draft of the EU "Association Agreement" is being sold as an economic boon for Ukrainian citizens, in reality it appears to be NATO's Trojan Horse: a massive expansion of NATO's military position in the region. What's more, the Agreement occurs under the cover of nebulous economic promises for a beset population hungering for better wages.

In a country where the average monthly minimum wage stands at about $150 USD, it's not hard to understand why Ukrainians are in the streets. They do not want to be in Russia's orbit, nor do they want to be pawns of NATO.

But is the plight of Ukrainians being exploited to usher in a new military agreement under the guise of economic reform?

For NATO, the goal is expansion. The prize is access to a country that shares a 1,426-mile border with Russia. The geopolitical map would be dramatically reshaped by the Agreement, with Ukraine serving as the new front for Western missile defense at the doorstep of Russia. Should the U.S. nuclear deal with Iran fall apart, Ukraine could be employed in larger regional disputes, too.

As an EU deal appears imminent, few people are asking questions about NATO's role in the deal, which was meant to facilitate jobs and trade. Economic conditions in Ukraine are dire: $15 billion in IMF loans suspended, danger of default and a zero growth forecast.

While NATO is not specifically mentioned in the draft of the "Association Agreement," the proposal, which was posted online (and translated to English here) by the Ukrainian cabinet in August, pledges convergence of foreign and security policy.

Read: NATO expansion.

For instance, in the draft of the Agreement, foreign and security policy mandates:

"The Parties shall explore the potential of military and technological cooperation. Ukraine and the European Defence Agency (EDA) will establish close contacts to discuss military capability improvement, including technological issues."

The draft of the Agreement's preamble links Ukraine to "ever closer convergence of positions on bilateral, regional and international issues of mutual interest" including the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) of the European Union and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) -- which underscores the military nature of the agreement.

Kucinich and OReilly had a go-round over the matter, reported here:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ru...rations-Dennis-Kuchinich/2014/03/04/id/556082

"So, it's the USA's fault that Putin rolled in? We made them do it?" O'Reilly asked.

"Bill O'Reilly, if you don't believe in cause and effect, I don't know what I can do for you," Kucinich responded.

Kucinich said the United States has been involved covertly and behind the scenes with the CIA and two government foreign aid groups, the National Endowment for Democracy and the United States Agency for International Development, to "stir up trouble in Ukraine."

He didn't specify what the groups had done, but said the democracy endowment had sponsored 65 programs. He said the United States should stay out of Ukraine's affairs and let its people decide their future without outside interference.

If that's right, there's a strong parallel to Cuba ~1962.
Just we didn't nip Castro in the bud.

So much propaganda about these days, who's to be believed? I always try to corroborate...
Huffington Post and Ron Paul institute seem to me strange bedfellows, see also Ukraine-gate
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/02/daniel-mcadams/she-lies/

We really need another Will Rogers.

 

[Borek]

So Czcibor , and what if the snipers were not government forces? have you ever thought about that one , or is CNN propoganda so strong that one just cannot resist it's magical and soft fingers?

I removed link to youtube video from your post.

About two or three hours ago forum was spammed with posts to this video by a newcomer - it was his first post, and the video had about 400 views at the time. Would that come from one of the regulars and was is not posted so freshly on youtube, I would treat it seriously, but the way it was posted - fresh video and post from newcomer, plus the fact this video has now, several hours later, over 200k views - makes me think post at PF was part of the concerted effort of spreading it. That's the best way of spreading propaganda, I doubt that was accidental, and it makes me doubt it is real.

 

[Naty1]

So much propaganda about these days, who's to be believed? I always try to corroborate...

good approach.

 

[Crazymechanic]

I unbderstand your concern Borek , but if you are worrying about porpoganda then you better shut down this thread as it is full with it from people who have heard it everywhere from the CNN and BBC tilll RT and other russian or pro Moscow channels.

Who will tell you the truth ? the US government ? really?
No they won't they will tell you the part of it that suits their interests , leaving the rest behind , Russia does the same opposite , so as I said anyone who think Russia is the only evil is either deaf or ignorant.

By the way great post Jim Hardy ,

the truth is as always , grea powers play their game and the ordinary folks sit and watch , the only problem is that at the end its the oridnary folks who have to pay for the weapons and casualties and its them who have to build everything from scratch.
Not so long ago NSA did loose their secret game in covert internet and phone tapping , if they can listen to their own citizens under doubtful permissions then i think they surely can work their way in a foreign country to gain control and spread their sphere of influence and I'm afraid this is just that.Not to mention this has happened many times before in latin america and is even documented in the CIA archives.Too bad the memory of the public is short and with most of them watching Miley Cyrus twerk I think they can do whatever they want in the background.
Lenin once said that the ordinary public is quite fine with just cinema and circus... think about it.
So from all of this do you really think Russia is so wrong in invading Crimea?
Do you really think Putin doesn't know about NATO plans and all of this " let's take over Ukraine" thing?
Putin knows darn well and Obama knows that Putin knows so what actions can he take?
Also I feel nothing but sorry for their stupidty that they think the west is now going to magically help the Ukraine situation and everyone will be rich sudenly, the west has a lot of economical problems on their own , their spending trillions in war operations in the middle east , and now one more country that needs aid ? How far can this go ?

The west is blaming Putin for bringing troops into a sovereign country while in the meantime they themselves are trying to invade that country only covertly with the use of intelligence and cooperation with local gansters and rebels.

In the end the greed of the local government is to blame , because with a pro russian government that wouldn't steal its own money or be corrupt things would have gone just fine.The main point is the everyday normal guy isn't so much concerned with what the president meets more , either Putin or Obama , the everyday citizen in concerned with his money with the income of his family with his ability to produce children and to live a normal life and if these things are granted then the government can be pro whatever they like , the majority will not overthrow them.

It's easy to bring in a revolution through the back door when the majority is poor and has a problem with their government.

 

[Czcibor]

So Czcibor , and what if the snipers were not government forces? have you ever thought about that one , or is CNN propoganda so strong that one just cannot resist it's magical and soft fingers?

If it pass so perfectly Russian regime approach to human life? Presented in case of Kursk where prestige of empire was too worthy for begging Norwegians to send a rescue boat imediately? Or in Bieslan where incinerating rounds were used?

Beating that naked Cossack in snow by Berkut actually proves, that they haven't fully grasped the mechanism in which youtube works.

I'm not saying that Russians don't use propoganda , they do and quite often , I'm just saying that critical thinking is a pretty rare phenomenon to western people.Not talking baout you specifically here.

But you know critical thinking would imply some valuation of different sources, based on ex. their prior record. Which means - western mainstream media - more or less credible. Putin's media - of course is possible that by pure chance some information may be accidentally true. You at least make an impression as if you treated such chasm as small.

But I have a question for you. What would you do if you were Putin?
a) invade Crimean Peninsula (most of Ukraine vivid enough to keep anti-Russian stance for long, bad relation with the West, economic sanctions possible)
b) congratulate new gov while doubting its legitimacy, raise gas price and patiently wait while watching how Ukrainians are implementing painful reforms imposed by IMF, which would cause today politician to loose support and how they struggle with each other. New pro-Russia regime after next election quite probable, thanks to Russian TV and general dissatisfaction. (no political fallout)

If we follow your logics and analyse consequences of "a" and "b" scenario then maybe you should also question, whether this whole invasion on Crimean was not a western false flag operation? As Putin said such uniforms are easy to buy...

Do you really think Putin needed to kill innocent medical personel and unarmed protesters from a few snipers to have a reason for invading Crimea , I doubt so , the plan for invasion was probably long before the guys at maidan started to throw rocks at berkut government forces backing Yanukovych.

No, I just said he sent snipers against crowd and did not care. And wanted to keep power on every price. (doing nothing was a guaranteed failure, so taking risks had some logic)

And if you really think Russia is the only evil in the world then all I can do is feel sorry for a lack of knowledge.

Where did I say so? I just look at external threats for Poland. (Middle East or China are too far away)

 

[DevilsAvocado]

So much propaganda about these days, who's to be believed? I always try to corroborate...

Earlier you asked if RT is a credible source (which seems to have 'disappeared').

RT is funded by the federal budget of Russia, and normally it's only lies & propaganda 24/7, with lies being the major part the last days (which makes even Bill O'Reilly look like a choirboy).

Lately they've even shown nuclear explosions in the 'commercials'!

The exception to the rule is Abby Martin (yet another intelligent woman) hosting Breaking the Set, who has the cojones to criticize Putin on his own news channel:

"Just because I work here, for RT, doesn't mean I don't have editorial independence and I can't stress enough how strongly I am against any military intervention in sovereign nations' affairs. What Russia did is wrong."​

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZolXrjGIBJs
http://www.youtube.com/embed/ZolXrjGIBJs

Kudos! :thumbs:


P.S: 1,417,437 views in two days.

 

[Czcibor]

I unbderstand your concern Borek , but if you are worrying about porpoganda then you better shut down this thread as it is full with it from people who have heard it everywhere from the CNN and BBC tilll RT and other russian or pro Moscow channels.

Or Polish news services... which are a bit less merciful for Putin than BBC...

The main pro-Russia group in Polish media are the Web Brigades.

 

[Crazymechanic]

Czcibor , your holding on to your viewpoint while criticizing me but you don't actually follow my logic here as I can tell.

About the snipers , with all the things the Yanukovych could have used against the protesters , and after all this time of protesting and understanding that he is literally out of office and will probably be out of it for the rest of his life , then he just decides that , oh well let's shoot some unarmed nurse in a big red cross shirt on her back , yeah that will be a great policy witjh all the western media filimig it live.
Do you even realize how absurdly this sounds?

Even more , if we believe Yanukovych has strong ties with Kremlin that means Putin is controlling his moves , do you think Putin would be interested to make the situation far worse than it already is?

Putin knows that NATO and CIA uses the situation in Ukraine to gain regional control and move in with a pro west government , Putin tries top stop this from happening but at the same time he needs to do that without destroyng all of his credibility and policy , now with secret snipers killing innocent civilians and then that being broadcasted live , trust me that's the last thing he would like to do in tis situation.
I'm not saying he wouldn't like to do it but he knows he cannot afford it from a public image point of view.

that leaves only one possibilitty , the snipers were working within the maidan movement , as I said the oridnary maidan portester probably knows next to nothing about this , but that doesn't mean someome out there isn't trying to use the situation , it;'s a classical example of fueling a fire and then blaming the other side for doing it so that the side in which you fight would have more reasons to continue to fight , only this time it was used to damage the credibility of RUssian forces and show Russia in a more negative light than it really is in order to make Krelim retreat so that the agenda could push forward the plans they have for Ukraine because with russian troops in the way it gets kinda complicated.

About why Putin chose to use direct force instead of waiting for Ukraine to default their budget with all the radicals and money greedy bastards they have , I don;'t know , probably he knows much more than we do and the situation called for such action.
Trust me I know some poeple , some relatives that have worked in the KGB , their not fools , Putin is not a fool he knows what his doing , and if he choose to use force obviosly there was a reason for that , it;'s not exactly like he would play some personal games while his own power is in question.

The invasion of Crimea is not a western false flag operation that I can tell you for sure.
the west doesn't have to bring their people in , they can use politics and intelligence to steer the situation and that is exactly what they are doing.
the only places where they need direct physical troops are places like Iraq and Afghanistan because there politics ahev very little power and most of the things are still fought by weapons and direct combat so you just have to addapt to the rules of the game to try to win.

the thing is the US is actually destroyng their own country and budget while trying to fight the whole world. and after all most opf all this middle east stuff is going nowhere , as soon as the US troops will be out of there things will get back to " normal " with time.
you can't change people mindset with weapons , only education and a deeper and wider undersatding of world can do that.