Is Climate Change Causing Unusually Warm Winters?

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    2015
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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the phenomenon of unusually warm winters, particularly in the context of climate change and its potential causes, including the influence of El Niño. Participants explore various factors contributing to current weather patterns, with a focus on both local and global implications.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the current warm winter in the northern Midwest may be linked to climate change, questioning if this will become a new norm.
  • Others point out that it is a strong El Niño year, which is known to disrupt weather patterns globally.
  • A participant references historical weather patterns in Europe, suggesting that warm winters have been occurring for several years, contrasting with past winters that had significant snowfall.
  • One participant discusses the measurement of global warming, indicating that while this winter's temperatures are not a direct measurement of global warming, they could be influenced by it through mechanisms like more frequent or stronger El Niños.
  • Another participant explains that El Niño results in warmer ocean water, which can prevent arctic air from moving south, contributing to warmer temperatures in certain regions.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a mix of views, with some attributing the warm winter to climate change while others emphasize the role of El Niño. The discussion does not reach a consensus on the primary cause of the current weather patterns.

Contextual Notes

There are limitations in the discussion regarding the assumptions made about the relationship between climate change and specific weather events, as well as the complexity of ocean-atmosphere interactions that influence local climates.

Isaac0427
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It's December 23rd, and 55 degrees in the northern Midwest. Does anyone know why? If this is because of climate change, will this become the norm? Thanks.
 
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It's a strong El Nino year

  • El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe.

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
 
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Europe has long had warm winters starting say several years ago. Back in 1944 during the Ardennes offensive there was like a foot of snow. You can see for yourself the weather of Berlin, Stockholm, Warsaw, Helsinski. Not a single snow flake in Europe.

https://www.google.ca/search?site=&....11.0...0...1c.1.64.hp..5.15.1879.YH7DMdnOdUM

https://www.google.ca/search?q=stoc....9.0...0...1c.1.64.serp..1.9.1040.iTn8Hp9c5PE

https://www.google.ca/search?q=wars....7.0...0...1c.1.64.serp..3.10.930.BaM0AtiO_3Q

https://www.google.ca/search?biw=13...0.0..0.0...0...1c..64.serp..0.0.0.Uu-H9obJD2M
 
Global warming is measured in hundredths of a degree Centigrade per year. So this winter is not a direct measurement of global warming. That being said, global warming can trigger other temperature changes that are locally much greater. Triggering more frequent or stronger El Ninos can be one example. Another possibility is that it may trigger a changed direction of the ocean current that now warms Great Britain. If that current goes somewhere else, Great Britain will be much colder. Keep in mind that even a small increase in the global temperature represents a huge amount of energy and can cause large weather changes.
 
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El Ninos basically is : "warmer ocean water" it has had a thermal effect by keeping the arctic air from reaching as far south as it usually does, some call it Indian summer for some reason. The arctic air is finally reaching the south where I'm at, it was 18 degrees f this morning in NC. On Christmas it was 73 degrees f lol.
 

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