Is Conditional Probability Influenced by Consecutivity

Click For Summary
SUMMARY

This discussion clarifies that the probability of rolling a specific sequence of numbers, such as "8888" or "0248," is not influenced by the consecutivity of the outcomes. The same principle applies to coin flips; the probability of obtaining "HHHH" is equivalent to that of getting "HTHH." The concept of independence in probability is emphasized, confirming that past outcomes do not affect future probabilities, aligning with the principles outlined in the Gambler's Fallacy.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic probability concepts
  • Familiarity with the Gambler's Fallacy
  • Knowledge of independent events in probability theory
  • Basic understanding of sequences and outcomes in random experiments
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the concept of independent events in probability theory
  • Explore the Gambler's Fallacy and its implications in gambling
  • Study conditional probability and its applications
  • Examine examples of sequences in random experiments, such as dice rolls and coin flips
USEFUL FOR

Students of mathematics, statisticians, and anyone interested in understanding the principles of probability and its applications in real-world scenarios.

kashmir0109
Messages
2
Reaction score
0
What I mean by this is,
Say I roll a die, given the specific condition that I get four eights consecutively such as
"8888",
the same probability as if I give the specific condition that I get another specific non-consecutive number such as?
"0248"

OR

Say I flip a quarter. Would the probability that I get HHHH in a row, the same as if I specify beforehand to get, say, HTHH?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
I don't quite get your question. Are you asking whether the probability that you'll roll a particular sequence is dependent on what you've rolled previously? If so, the answer is no; see here,[/PLAIN] but also see the caveat here, which may be more relevant to your question.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
kashmir0109 said:
What I mean by this is,
Say I roll a die, given the specific condition that I get four eights consecutively such as
"8888",
the same probability as if I give the specific condition that I get another specific non-consecutive number such as?
"0248"

OR

Say I flip a quarter. Would the probability that I get HHHH in a row, the same as if I specify beforehand to get, say, HTHH?

The answer to the second question is yes. I suspect it also true for the first, but yuou need to describe this peculiar die - are all numbers equally probable?
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • · Replies 10 ·
Replies
10
Views
3K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
3K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
Replies
12
Views
4K
  • · Replies 17 ·
Replies
17
Views
4K
Replies
6
Views
1K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 11 ·
Replies
11
Views
4K