News Is North Korea's Defiance of U.N. Sanctions Pushing Us Closer to War?

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The discussion centers on the escalating tensions with North Korea, particularly in response to new U.N. sanctions. North Korea has vowed to enhance its nuclear weapons program and has issued threats against any nation that interferes with its maritime activities. Participants express skepticism about the effectiveness of current strategies, suggesting that pressuring North Korea may only provoke further defiance rather than lead to constructive dialogue. Some argue for a more aggressive stance, advocating for clear consequences if North Korea continues its nuclear ambitions, while others propose a strategy of ignoring their nuclear tests to avoid escalation. The debate highlights concerns over North Korea's potential to launch a nuclear attack on South Korea or Japan, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach that deters aggression without provoking conflict. The conversation reflects a broader anxiety about the implications of a nuclear-armed North Korea and the challenges of managing its unpredictable leadership.
  • #51
math_04 said:
... Kim Jong Il and his associates have their eyes fixed on a forceful reunification of the Korea and their blind hatred for everything un-North Korean will not go away just because we do nothing about it.

kyleb said:
How do you figure? That would be like Saddam and his associates invading Kuwait without thinking he had the green light from us, only multiple times stupider. Seriously, I'd put the odds of it happening at next to nil, whether we keep whining about his nuclear testing or not...
Would you then favor the removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula? The US has some five brigades there.
 
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  • #52
TheStatutoryApe said:
I don't see it as being counter productive since I don't see any reason to believe that NK would back down on its nuclear weapons program without US involvement.
In my expereance, people tend to get defensive when they are threatened.
TheStatutoryApe said:
I would consider launching test missiles over your neighbours yard one of those types of action.
How many "missiles"? I recall one which went over Japan, but that could have been a technical malfunction for all I know.
mheslep said:
Would you then favor the removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula? The US has some five brigades there.
No, I was taking that troop presence into account when making my estimate of the stupidity of NK attacking.
 
  • #53
Ivan Seeking said:
I think we already tried that plan with Hitler.

In case of Germany, we tried something like the current plan. Just after WWI, Germany was placed under severe sanctions that most historians agree went way to far.
 
  • #54
Count Iblis said:
In case of Germany, we tried something like the current plan. Just after WWI, Germany was placed under severe sanctions that most historians agree went way to far.

I think it was completely different. North Korea have access to diplomatic negotiations and aids from other countries unlike Germany but NK chose to reject them.

But, ignoring NK looks really similar to ignoring Hitler.
 
  • #55
rootX said:
I think it was completely different. North Korea have access to diplomatic negotiations and aids from other countries unlike Germany but NK chose to reject them.

But, ignoring NK looks really similar to ignoring Hitler.

Yes, I agree that the cases are different. But we have to realize that Hitler was ignored after a long period of a hard line approach when it wasn't necessary.

In case of North Korea, we seem to have forgotten that before Kim tested a nuke he attempted to launch a satellite. The US initially failed to get backing for a strong UN resolution condemning that, because China argued that this would be unnecessarily provocative. And only after some time did the US manage to convince China to vote in favor of a UN resolution to condemn the launch.

Kim then decided to test a nuke. So, you have to ask yourself about the rationale of condemning North Korea for that failed satellite launch.
 
  • #56
rootX said:
But, ignoring NK looks really similar to ignoring Hitler.
How so? It's not like we would be offering him his Sudetenland.
 
  • #57
No use comparing Kim Jong Il to Adolf Hitler. Kim Jong Il doesn't have nearly the resources or the relatively weak neighbors Hitler had. He knows well that China won't back him if he tries to attack South Korea or Japan. Unlike the Korean War, North Korea would have to take on the United States on its own this time around. He can squawk all he wants but there is a line and I doubt he'll cross it. Unlike Hitler, he doesn't stand a chance in an all-out war.
 
  • #58
Exactly, and thinking the idea of historical examples though; I am at a loss as to come up with any nation ever making such a colossally stupid decision to launch a war while in a comparable position to that which NK is stuck in. Again, best I can tell, they just want a big enough bomb and a reliable enough delivery system to make sure everyone would consider it a stupid move to attack them, and I am at a loss as to find reason to believe otherwise.
 
  • #59
I don't think North Korea is in any position to undertake a war.

They want to beat their chests, because it gives them international leverage. They are a really destitute nation.

For instance, use Google Earth to actually look about over there. The thing that I find striking is not what's there. But what is not there ... Cars. Not parked, not on the roads, mostly not about anywhere. And along their coastal defenses. Boats. I'd venture to say that half the patrol boats are feathered and beached on land cradles. And their launch sites, are pitiful, compared to the Kennedy launch facilities and the Johnson Space Center in Houston.

Now maybe the satellite pictures were taken on a Sunday and everyone was sleeping in ... but I found it an eyeopening view of a country with apparently few resources. There are some organized placemarks of North Korea that can lead you to a number of highlights.
 
  • #60
LowlyPion said:
I don't think North Korea is in any position to undertake a war.

They want to beat their chests, because it gives them international leverage. They are a really destitute nation.

For instance, use Google Earth to actually look about over there. The thing that I find striking is not what's there. But what is not there ... Cars. Not parked, not on the roads, mostly not about anywhere. And along their coastal defenses. Boats. I'd venture to say that half the patrol boats are feathered and beached on land cradles. And their launch sites, are pitiful, compared to the Kennedy launch facilities and the Johnson Space Center in Houston.

Now maybe the satellite pictures were taken on a Sunday and everyone was sleeping in ... but I found it an eyeopening view of a country with apparently few resources. There are some organized placemarks of North Korea that can lead you to a number of highlights.

There's a big difference between conventional war and nuclear war. These days, you don't need to storm the beaches of a country in order to kill millions of people. NK is developing nukes once again and now has the means to deliver them even though the majority of the country is (barely) living off of foreign aid. NK's leadership would have to be insane to attack another country given their position. But guess what? They are insane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/iiLS-AlfO30&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/iiLS-AlfO30&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
 
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  • #61
CRGreathouse said:
In Firefox (and possibly in your browser of choice), pressing [Esc] makes animations on the page stop.

Not in Chrome...:frown:

But that's all right:wink:, I think I got used to it.
 
  • #62
Topher925 said:
NK's leadership would have to be insane to attack another country given their position. But guess what? They are insane.
This reminds me of the claims of Saddam's supposed WMD aspirations. How have you reached your conclusion? I didn't find your MadTV clip convincing.
Equate said:
But that's all right:wink:, I think I got used to it.
Good to hear. :smile:
 
  • #63
kyleb said:
Rather, at least it wouldn't be egging them on.

Would you ignore a vicious and clearly agitated grizzly bear standing outside your fragile mobile home?
 
  • #64
I don't think NK has the means to deliver nukes at all. They can barely explode a nuclear device with weeks of preparation. That's not the same as having a miniaturized device that you can put on a missile which will survive the launch and will be able to re-enter the atmosphere and survive that too and then explode at the right place.

They have much more work to do on their nukes and their missiles are not up to the job either. Their attempt to launch a satellite failed. Also their missiles work on liquid fuel which means that they need to be fueld days in advance. So, even if they could deliver a nuke in the future, it still won't pose a military threat, unless they manage to make solid fuel missiles.
 
  • #65
Count Iblis said:
I don't think NK has the means to deliver nukes at all. They can barely explode a nuclear device with weeks of preparation. That's not the same as having a miniaturized device that you can put on a missile which will survive the launch and will be able to re-enter the atmosphere and survive that too and then explode at the right place.

They have much more work to do on their nukes and their missiles are not up to the job either. Their attempt to launch a satellite failed. Also their missiles work on liquid fuel which means that they need to be fueld days in advance. So, even if they could deliver a nuke in the future, it still won't pose a military threat, unless they manage to make solid fuel missiles.

So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.
 
  • #66
drankin said:
So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.

As I understand, they are assuming that region will be stablize and NK wouldn't go for technologies (or is not capable) if we don't interfere. I tend not to agree with that assumption.
 
  • #67
Even if North Korea had the means to deliver a nuclear payload to Japan or South Korea (or even the US), to do so would be suicide. If Kim Jong Il was stupid enough to seriously contemplate the idea, his subordinates would be more likely to depose him than comply. He's taunting us. It's a media circus and North Korea is the center of attention. We can be stern and pile on the sanctions, but any military action against North Korea has close to a 100% chance of leading to the death of tens or even hundreds of thousands of civilians in South Korea and Japan (keep in mind that Seoul is within artillery range of NK).

As extravagant as North Korea's actions may seem, there is a certain line that I don't think they'll cross. They're more rational than they let on.
 
  • #68
Tibarn said:
Even if North Korea had the means to deliver a nuclear payload to Japan or South Korea (or even the US), to do so would be suicide. If Kim Jong Il was stupid enough to seriously contemplate the idea, his subordinates would be more likely to depose him than comply. He's taunting us. It's a media circus and North Korea is the center of attention. We can be stern and pile on the sanctions, but any military action against North Korea has close to a 100% chance of leading to the death of tens or even hundreds of thousands of civilians in South Korea and Japan (keep in mind that Seoul is within artillery range of NK).

As extravagant as North Korea's actions may seem, there is a certain line that I don't think they'll cross. They're more rational than they let on.

You're assumptions may be correct but that is all they are... assumptions. Dangerous assumptions. A lot of lives could be resting on... assumptions.
 
  • #69
I feel like punching Kim Jong Il in the face and telling him to stop acting like a kid who needs attention. Too bad he has a million strong army and a couple of nukes to throw around. But then again, I keep thinking if this guy is serious about starting a nuclear war, we are in for a very cold winter in the East. I would also like to believe they are rational and are just attention seekers but we have to consider the other side as well. For the first time in history, we have an aggressive, totalitarian dictatorship that threatens neighbouring countries with nuclear weapons which is scary.
 
  • #70
You're assumptions may be correct but that is all they are... assumptions. Dangerous assumptions. A lot of lives could be resting on... assumptions.
That's the usual problem with making decisions with incomplete knowledge. On the one hand, South Korea and Japan are in for an unpleasant surprise if Kim Jong Il decides to launch a nuclear strike after stockpiling nuclear weapons. On the other hand, attacking North Korea would prompt a retaliatory strike against South Korea and Japan, not to mention the possibility of angering China. The worst case scenario for either situation is the death of at least hundreds of thousands of civilians.

For the first time in history, we have an aggressive, totalitarian dictatorship that threatens neighbouring countries with nuclear weapons which is scary.
Still not quite as scary as the Cold War, with that little misunderstanding over putting nuclear missiles in Cuba.
 
  • #71
Moridin said:
Would you ignore a vicious and clearly agitated grizzly bear standing outside your fragile mobile home?
Certainly not, but NK is no bear, and rather is in a very fragile spot itself.
rootX said:
As I understand, they are assuming that region will be stablize and NK wouldn't go for technologies (or is not capable) if we don't interfere.
Again, I figure they simply want a big enough bomb and a reliable enough delivery system to feel safe from attack, and will achieve that regardless of how much pressure we put on them to do otherwise. And again, I do think we should do our best from keeping nuclear weapons technology and materials out of their hands, I'd just prefer we stopped antagonising them over what they manage to accomplish in spite of our efforts.
 
  • #72
At least we now have missile defenses to protect ourselves from any attacks.

The United States has positioned more missile defenses around Hawaii as a precaution against a possible North Korean launch across the Pacific, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday. "We do have some concerns if they were to launch a missile to the west in the direction of Hawaii," Gates said.
 
  • #73
drankin said:
So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.


So, just out of curiosity, what do you suggest be done about NK?

Don't talk to them? (the Bush strategy)
More sanctions?
Another pre-emptive strike?
Or maybe nuke them before they nuke us?
 
  • #74
Topher925 said:
At least we now have missile defenses to protect ourselves from any attacks.

The United States has positioned more missile defenses around Hawaii as a precaution against a possible North Korean launch across the Pacific, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday. "We do have some concerns if they were to launch a missile to the west in the direction of Hawaii," Gates said.

Wow, that's some fantastic missile they've got if they can fire it to the west and hit Hawaii! :rolleyes:
 
  • #75
drankin said:
So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.

We won't intervene. And there is no problem about Kim getting a little more powerful toys that are not useful weapons anyway.

Thing is that the Swine flu epidemic will likely kill more Americans than Kim could kill if we were to give him a working ICBM with a 20 kiloton nuke for his birthday.
 
  • #76
Count Iblis said:
We won't intervene. And there is no problem about Kim getting a little more powerful toys that are not useful weapons anyway.

Thing is that the Swine flu epidemic will likely kill more Americans than Kim could kill if we were to give him a working ICBM with a 20 kiloton nuke for his birthday.

Actually, I'm less worried about Americans than I am about S Korea or Japan. We haven't had a hostile nuclear detonation since WWII. The world would like to keep it that way.
 
  • #77
Seems to me if the US has the ability to shoot it down, or interrupt their telemetry ... since they have no recovery capability ... an interesting strategy would be to unofficially interfere with the test firings, so the tests would not yield data on why it didn't work. If their missiles just disappear on radar mid-Pacific, how can they develop any confidence that they could deliver a ham sandwich, much less a weapon?
 
  • #78
LowlyPion said:
an interesting strategy would be to unofficially interfere with the test firings

I am not sure if it is not against international treaties.
 
  • #79
Well, now what should we do. Basically North Korea have thrown down the gauntlet at the US. Search our ships and face the consequences. This is the problem with trying to be nice with a rogue, aggressive irrational state that possesses nuclear weapons. The US should certainly search such vessels that may carry nuclear weapons to other countries i.e nuclear proliferation or incoming ships that may carry missile parts.

North Korea says to hit back at US if attacked

SEOUL (AFP) — North Korea has described itself as a "proud nuclear power" and threatened to hit back if attacked, as the United States tracked one of its ships on suspicion it is carrying a banned weapons cargo.

Rodong Sinmun, newspaper of the ruling communist party, accused Washington of building up its regional firepower and denounced "reckless remarks" that US warships would stop and search its cargo vessels.

It is "nonsense" to claim that the North threatens the United States, the paper said, but reiterated recent vows not to surrender nuclear weapons.

"As long as the DPRK (North Korea) has become a proud nuclear power, the US should take a correct look at who it is dealing with," Rodong said.

"It is a great mistake for the US to think it will not be hurt if it ignores this and ignites the fuse of war on the Korean peninsula."

Regional tensions are at their highest for years after the North launched a long-range rocket on April 5 and conducted its second nuclear test on May 25, attracting tougher UN sanctions.

US and South Korean officials say there are signs it plans another ballistic missile launch. A Japanese media report said a rocket could be fired in the direction of Hawaii on or around US Independence Day on July 4.

The North staged missile launches in 2006 while the United States was marking the holiday.

"This administration -- and our military -- is fully prepared for any contingencies," US President Barack Obama told CBS News when asked about the possibility.

The interview was to be aired Monday but excerpts were released in advance.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said last week the military has strengthened anti-missile defences around Hawaii.

Defence officials say a US destroyer is tracking a North Korean ship previously linked to trafficking in missile-related cargoes -- the first such action since a new UN resolution authorised ship inspections by member states.

South Korea's YTN television news channel, citing an intelligence source, said the United States suspects that the 2,000-tonne Kang Nam 1 is carrying missiles or related parts and is heading for Myanmar via Singapore.

US officials have not said if or when they might ask to search the vessel under Resolution 1874, which does not authorise the use of force.

North Korea has reacted defiantly to the latest sanctions, vowing to build more nuclear bombs. Some US intelligence officials have been quoted as saying it may conduct a third atomic test.

While the US has said it wants the sanctions to bite, China's full cooperation in them is seen as essential. It is Pyongyang's sole major ally and leading trade partner.

Obama in the interview said there was a strong international consensus against Pyongyang.

The resolution called for tighter cargo inspections, a stricter arms embargo and new targeted financial curbs to freeze revenue for the North's nuclear and missile sectors.

"That sends a signal... of a unity in the international community that we haven't seen in quite some time," Obama told CBS.

"And one of the things that we have been very clear about is that North Korea has a path towards rejoining the international community. And we hope they take that path. What we're not going to do is to reward belligerence and provocation in the way that's been done in the past."

Obama last week called Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions a "grave threat" and vowed to defend South Korea after talks in Washington with South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak.

The North in turn accused Obama and Lee of "trying to ignite a nuclear war." "The US-touted provision of 'extended deterrence, including a nuclear umbrella' (for South Korea) is nothing but 'a nuclear war plan,'" the state-run weekly Tongil Sinbo said in a weekend commentary

All those individuals who advocated negotiations and taking a passive stance, what do you say know to a possible North Korean missile test at Hawaii.
 
  • #80
math_04 said:
All those individuals who advocated negotiations and taking a passive stance, what do you say know to a possible North Korean missile test at Hawaii.

Where's that quote taken from?

Anyway, it seems speculative, at best, that North Korea will actually try and launch a missile towards Hawaii.
 
  • #81
Where's that quote taken from?

What do you mean? That is what I think, having debated a bit on this thread, some people have advocated to let North Korea continue their aggressive stance and not make the situation any worse. I think negotiations have failed and well, something needs to be done.

Anyway, it seems speculative, at best, that North Korea will actually try and launch a missile towards Hawaii.

Speculation or not, this is a very serious situation. If they launch a missile towards Hawaii, are we going to do nothing about it? How long are we going to manufacture excuses in order to not anger North Korea:confused:

Right now, the world is powerless, we cannot enforce sanctions, we cannot stop North Korea sharing nuclear technology with other states, we cannot do anything. They are the ones calling the shots
 
  • #82
math_04 said:
What do you mean?

In the post above you put a big chunk of text in quote marks but don't give a source. Where is it from?
 
  • #83
Judging from the first line - it is from AFP (Agence France-Presse). More precisely from their Seoul bureau.
 
  • #84
oh yea. yup, it is from AFP .

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jMQvVnV-aXq8wzjUx0lljozps-aQ
 
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  • #85
math_04 said:
...Right now, the world is powerless, we cannot enforce sanctions, we cannot stop North Korea sharing nuclear technology with other states, we cannot do anything. ...
None of those clauses are correct.
 
  • #86
None of those clauses are correct.

Prove me wrong.
 
  • #87
math_04 said:
Prove me wrong.

You are right. North Korean ships cannot be boarded if North Korea doesn't want that. The only way to board a North Korean ship seems to be by not allowing a North Korean ship to refuel if it refuses inspection. Once in the harbor of some country, that country always has a legal right to board ships.

Of course, North Korea can use supply ships which it will allow to be inspected. These ships can carry the supplies and fuel for the ships that carry the WMD components.
 
  • #88
This just in, NK is threatening to "wipe the United States off of the map" with one of their missiles. This just keeps getting better and better. :rolleyes:

North Korea threatened Wednesday to wipe the United States off the map as Washington and its allies watched for signs the regime will launch a series of missiles in the coming days.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090624/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear
 
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  • #89
A few weeks back they declared war on the US...or rather, re-affirmed that they were still at war with the US since the Korean War. Counting on the goodwill of the US not to attack when a nuclear power has declared war on them seems to me to be a very dangerous gamble.
 
  • #90
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_koreas_nuclear
North Korea threatened Wednesday to wipe the United States off the map as Washington and its allies watched for signs the regime will launch a series of missiles in the coming days.
Delusions of grandeur. :rolleyes:
 
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  • #91
Astronuc said:
Delusions of grandeur. :rolleyes:

But still dangerous.

Consider this scenario - the DPRK again re-affirms that they are at war with the US. That day, they test-fire a missile into the Pacific, and due to a navigational failure, it heads towards Hawaii. At the same time, a Styx missile intended to be a warning against a US Navy frigate observing the launch from international waters (but inside the DPRK's self-proclaimed "exclusion zone") accidentally hits it, sinking it.

What do you think the US response would be?
 
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  • #92
math_04 said:
Prove me wrong.
I can, but that is not how it works around here. You don't get to claim your unsupported statements stand until someone else does the work to show otherwise. You have made broad sweeping assertions, some of it directly counter to common knowledge. Please provide some evidence.

Edit: let's not go off track in response either to some other rant. I'm talking specifically about these claims:
math_o4 said:
Right now,..
the world is powerless, ..
we cannot enforce sanctions, ..
we cannot stop North Korea sharing nuclear technology with other states, ..
we cannot do anything
A couple of them are logically unsupportable for any fact base.

Count Iblis said:
You are right. North Korean ships cannot be boarded if North Korea doesn't want that. ...
Unless you intended to qualify this to legalities only, this is nonsense.
 
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  • #93
I can, but that is not how it works around here. You don't get to claim your unsupported statements stand until someone else does the work to show otherwise. You have made broad sweeping assertions, some of it directly counter to common knowledge. Please provide some evidence.

The information has been provided in previous posts or maybe you should try reading the news, it is a good source of information. :wink:

Please enlighten me about what you think wrong about my assertions.
 
  • #94
How can someone debate with another when the other keeps shaking his head, sighing in despair and not offering any counter arguments.
 
  • #95
math_04 said:
The information has been provided in previous posts
No, the only source provided was the Telegraph and AFP pieces on the latest ramblings from NK. They do not support your 4 assertions.

or maybe you should try reading the news, it is a good source of information. :wink:

Please enlighten me about what you think wrong about my assertions.
And that's trolling.
 
  • #96
Closed pending moderation.
 

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