News Is North Korea's Defiance of U.N. Sanctions Pushing Us Closer to War?

[Equate]

In Firefox (and possibly in your browser of choice), pressing [Esc] makes animations on the page stop.

Not in Chrome...

But that's all right, I think I got used to it.

 

[kyleb]

NK's leadership would have to be insane to attack another country given their position. But guess what? They are insane.

This reminds me of the claims of Saddam's supposed WMD aspirations. How have you reached your conclusion? I didn't find your MadTV clip convincing.

But that's all right, I think I got used to it.

Good to hear.

 

[Moridin]

Rather, at least it wouldn't be egging them on.

Would you ignore a vicious and clearly agitated grizzly bear standing outside your fragile mobile home?

 

[Count Iblis]

I don't think NK has the means to deliver nukes at all. They can barely explode a nuclear device with weeks of preparation. That's not the same as having a miniaturized device that you can put on a missile which will survive the launch and will be able to re-enter the atmosphere and survive that too and then explode at the right place.

They have much more work to do on their nukes and their missiles are not up to the job either. Their attempt to launch a satellite failed. Also their missiles work on liquid fuel which means that they need to be fueld days in advance. So, even if they could deliver a nuke in the future, it still won't pose a military threat, unless they manage to make solid fuel missiles.

 

[drankin]

I don't think NK has the means to deliver nukes at all. They can barely explode a nuclear device with weeks of preparation. That's not the same as having a miniaturized device that you can put on a missile which will survive the launch and will be able to re-enter the atmosphere and survive that too and then explode at the right place.

They have much more work to do on their nukes and their missiles are not up to the job either. Their attempt to launch a satellite failed. Also their missiles work on liquid fuel which means that they need to be fueld days in advance. So, even if they could deliver a nuke in the future, it still won't pose a military threat, unless they manage to make solid fuel missiles.

So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.

 

[rootX]

So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.

As I understand, they are assuming that region will be stablize and NK wouldn't go for technologies (or is not capable) if we don't interfere. I tend not to agree with that assumption.

 

[Tibarn]

Even if North Korea had the means to deliver a nuclear payload to Japan or South Korea (or even the US), to do so would be suicide. If Kim Jong Il was stupid enough to seriously contemplate the idea, his subordinates would be more likely to depose him than comply. He's taunting us. It's a media circus and North Korea is the center of attention. We can be stern and pile on the sanctions, but any military action against North Korea has close to a 100% chance of leading to the death of tens or even hundreds of thousands of civilians in South Korea and Japan (keep in mind that Seoul is within artillery range of NK).

As extravagant as North Korea's actions may seem, there is a certain line that I don't think they'll cross. They're more rational than they let on.

 

[drankin]

Even if North Korea had the means to deliver a nuclear payload to Japan or South Korea (or even the US), to do so would be suicide. If Kim Jong Il was stupid enough to seriously contemplate the idea, his subordinates would be more likely to depose him than comply. He's taunting us. It's a media circus and North Korea is the center of attention. We can be stern and pile on the sanctions, but any military action against North Korea has close to a 100% chance of leading to the death of tens or even hundreds of thousands of civilians in South Korea and Japan (keep in mind that Seoul is within artillery range of NK).

As extravagant as North Korea's actions may seem, there is a certain line that I don't think they'll cross. They're more rational than they let on.

You're assumptions may be correct but that is all they are... assumptions. Dangerous assumptions. A lot of lives could be resting on... assumptions.

 

[math_04]

I feel like punching Kim Jong Il in the face and telling him to stop acting like a kid who needs attention. Too bad he has a million strong army and a couple of nukes to throw around. But then again, I keep thinking if this guy is serious about starting a nuclear war, we are in for a very cold winter in the East. I would also like to believe they are rational and are just attention seekers but we have to consider the other side as well. For the first time in history, we have an aggressive, totalitarian dictatorship that threatens neighbouring countries with nuclear weapons which is scary.

 

[Tibarn]

You're assumptions may be correct but that is all they are... assumptions. Dangerous assumptions. A lot of lives could be resting on... assumptions.

That's the usual problem with making decisions with incomplete knowledge. On the one hand, South Korea and Japan are in for an unpleasant surprise if Kim Jong Il decides to launch a nuclear strike after stockpiling nuclear weapons. On the other hand, attacking North Korea would prompt a retaliatory strike against South Korea and Japan, not to mention the possibility of angering China. The worst case scenario for either situation is the death of at least hundreds of thousands of civilians.

For the first time in history, we have an aggressive, totalitarian dictatorship that threatens neighbouring countries with nuclear weapons which is scary.

Still not quite as scary as the Cold War, with that little misunderstanding over putting nuclear missiles in Cuba.

 

[kyleb]

Would you ignore a vicious and clearly agitated grizzly bear standing outside your fragile mobile home?

Certainly not, but NK is no bear, and rather is in a very fragile spot itself.

As I understand, they are assuming that region will be stablize and NK wouldn't go for technologies (or is not capable) if we don't interfere.

Again, I figure they simply want a big enough bomb and a reliable enough delivery system to feel safe from attack, and will achieve that regardless of how much pressure we put on them to do otherwise. And again, I do think we should do our best from keeping nuclear weapons technology and materials out of their hands, I'd just prefer we stopped antagonising them over what they manage to accomplish in spite of our efforts.

 

[Topher925]

At least we now have missile defenses to protect ourselves from any attacks.

The United States has positioned more missile defenses around Hawaii as a precaution against a possible North Korean launch across the Pacific, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday. "We do have some concerns if they were to launch a missile to the west in the direction of Hawaii," Gates said.

 

[BoomBoom]

So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.

So, just out of curiosity, what do you suggest be done about NK?

Don't talk to them? (the Bush strategy)
More sanctions?
Another pre-emptive strike?
Or maybe nuke them before they nuke us?

 

[cristo]

At least we now have missile defenses to protect ourselves from any attacks.

The United States has positioned more missile defenses around Hawaii as a precaution against a possible North Korean launch across the Pacific, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday. "We do have some concerns if they were to launch a missile to the west in the direction of Hawaii," Gates said.

Wow, that's some fantastic missile they've got if they can fire it to the west and hit Hawaii!

 

[Count Iblis]

So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.

We won't intervene. And there is no problem about Kim getting a little more powerful toys that are not useful weapons anyway.

Thing is that the Swine flu epidemic will likely kill more Americans than Kim could kill if we were to give him a working ICBM with a 20 kiloton nuke for his birthday.

 

[drankin]

We won't intervene. And there is no problem about Kim getting a little more powerful toys that are not useful weapons anyway.

Thing is that the Swine flu epidemic will likely kill more Americans than Kim could kill if we were to give him a working ICBM with a 20 kiloton nuke for his birthday.

Actually, I'm less worried about Americans than I am about S Korea or Japan. We haven't had a hostile nuclear detonation since WWII. The world would like to keep it that way.

 

[LowlyPion]

Seems to me if the US has the ability to shoot it down, or interrupt their telemetry ... since they have no recovery capability ... an interesting strategy would be to unofficially interfere with the test firings, so the tests would not yield data on why it didn't work. If their missiles just disappear on radar mid-Pacific, how can they develop any confidence that they could deliver a ham sandwich, much less a weapon?

 

[Borek]

an interesting strategy would be to unofficially interfere with the test firings

I am not sure if it is not against international treaties.

 

[math_04]

Well, now what should we do. Basically North Korea have thrown down the gauntlet at the US. Search our ships and face the consequences. This is the problem with trying to be nice with a rogue, aggressive irrational state that possesses nuclear weapons. The US should certainly search such vessels that may carry nuclear weapons to other countries i.e nuclear proliferation or incoming ships that may carry missile parts.

North Korea says to hit back at US if attacked

SEOUL (AFP) — North Korea has described itself as a "proud nuclear power" and threatened to hit back if attacked, as the United States tracked one of its ships on suspicion it is carrying a banned weapons cargo.

Rodong Sinmun, newspaper of the ruling communist party, accused Washington of building up its regional firepower and denounced "reckless remarks" that US warships would stop and search its cargo vessels.

It is "nonsense" to claim that the North threatens the United States, the paper said, but reiterated recent vows not to surrender nuclear weapons.

"As long as the DPRK (North Korea) has become a proud nuclear power, the US should take a correct look at who it is dealing with," Rodong said.

"It is a great mistake for the US to think it will not be hurt if it ignores this and ignites the fuse of war on the Korean peninsula."

Regional tensions are at their highest for years after the North launched a long-range rocket on April 5 and conducted its second nuclear test on May 25, attracting tougher UN sanctions.

US and South Korean officials say there are signs it plans another ballistic missile launch. A Japanese media report said a rocket could be fired in the direction of Hawaii on or around US Independence Day on July 4.

The North staged missile launches in 2006 while the United States was marking the holiday.

"This administration -- and our military -- is fully prepared for any contingencies," US President Barack Obama told CBS News when asked about the possibility.

The interview was to be aired Monday but excerpts were released in advance.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said last week the military has strengthened anti-missile defences around Hawaii.

Defence officials say a US destroyer is tracking a North Korean ship previously linked to trafficking in missile-related cargoes -- the first such action since a new UN resolution authorised ship inspections by member states.

South Korea's YTN television news channel, citing an intelligence source, said the United States suspects that the 2,000-tonne Kang Nam 1 is carrying missiles or related parts and is heading for Myanmar via Singapore.

US officials have not said if or when they might ask to search the vessel under Resolution 1874, which does not authorise the use of force.

North Korea has reacted defiantly to the latest sanctions, vowing to build more nuclear bombs. Some US intelligence officials have been quoted as saying it may conduct a third atomic test.

While the US has said it wants the sanctions to bite, China's full cooperation in them is seen as essential. It is Pyongyang's sole major ally and leading trade partner.

Obama in the interview said there was a strong international consensus against Pyongyang.

The resolution called for tighter cargo inspections, a stricter arms embargo and new targeted financial curbs to freeze revenue for the North's nuclear and missile sectors.

"That sends a signal... of a unity in the international community that we haven't seen in quite some time," Obama told CBS.

"And one of the things that we have been very clear about is that North Korea has a path towards rejoining the international community. And we hope they take that path. What we're not going to do is to reward belligerence and provocation in the way that's been done in the past."

Obama last week called Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions a "grave threat" and vowed to defend South Korea after talks in Washington with South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak.

The North in turn accused Obama and Lee of "trying to ignite a nuclear war." "The US-touted provision of 'extended deterrence, including a nuclear umbrella' (for South Korea) is nothing but 'a nuclear war plan,'" the state-run weekly Tongil Sinbo said in a weekend commentary

All those individuals who advocated negotiations and taking a passive stance, what do you say know to a possible North Korean missile test at Hawaii.

 

[cristo]

All those individuals who advocated negotiations and taking a passive stance, what do you say know to a possible North Korean missile test at Hawaii.

Where's that quote taken from?

Anyway, it seems speculative, at best, that North Korea will actually try and launch a missile towards Hawaii.

 

[math_04]

Where's that quote taken from?

What do you mean? That is what I think, having debated a bit on this thread, some people have advocated to let North Korea continue their aggressive stance and not make the situation any worse. I think negotiations have failed and well, something needs to be done.

Anyway, it seems speculative, at best, that North Korea will actually try and launch a missile towards Hawaii.

Speculation or not, this is a very serious situation. If they launch a missile towards Hawaii, are we going to do nothing about it? How long are we going to manufacture excuses in order to not anger North Korea

Right now, the world is powerless, we cannot enforce sanctions, we cannot stop North Korea sharing nuclear technology with other states, we cannot do anything. They are the ones calling the shots

 

[cristo]

What do you mean?

In the post above you put a big chunk of text in quote marks but don't give a source. Where is it from?

 

[Borek]

Judging from the first line - it is from AFP (Agence France-Presse). More precisely from their Seoul bureau.

 

[math_04]

oh yea. yup, it is from AFP .

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jMQvVnV-aXq8wzjUx0lljozps-aQ

 

[mheslep]

...Right now, the world is powerless, we cannot enforce sanctions, we cannot stop North Korea sharing nuclear technology with other states, we cannot do anything. ...

None of those clauses are correct.

 

[math_04]

None of those clauses are correct.

Prove me wrong.

 

[Count Iblis]

Prove me wrong.

You are right. North Korean ships cannot be boarded if North Korea doesn't want that. The only way to board a North Korean ship seems to be by not allowing a North Korean ship to refuel if it refuses inspection. Once in the harbor of some country, that country always has a legal right to board ships.

Of course, North Korea can use supply ships which it will allow to be inspected. These ships can carry the supplies and fuel for the ships that carry the WMD components.

 

[Topher925]

This just in, NK is threatening to "wipe the United States off of the map" with one of their missiles. This just keeps getting better and better.

North Korea threatened Wednesday to wipe the United States off the map as Washington and its allies watched for signs the regime will launch a series of missiles in the coming days.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090624/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

 

[Vanadium 50]

A few weeks back they declared war on the US...or rather, re-affirmed that they were still at war with the US since the Korean War. Counting on the goodwill of the US not to attack when a nuclear power has declared war on them seems to me to be a very dangerous gamble.

 

[Astronuc]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_koreas_nuclear

North Korea threatened Wednesday to wipe the United States off the map as Washington and its allies watched for signs the regime will launch a series of missiles in the coming days.

Delusions of grandeur.