News Is Offshore Oil Drilling Truly Safe?

[turbo]

Yes, certainly that method also has flaw. The bottom line here is that the size of the leak currently has a number of estimates that cover more than an order of magnitude. What does that mean? It means we really don't have a very good idea of what the real flow rate is.

An order of magnitude? The real flow rate may well be well over an order of magnitude, and likely is.

BP's "method" has the advantage (to them) of minimizing the estimated magnitude of the spill, based on the size of the visible slicks created by the light fractions of the crude. Engineers and scholars have applied real-world tools, and have pretty convincingly debunked BP's claims. I know which evaluations I would value and which I would dismiss.

When you have to evaluate a spill or leak in a remote location, you have to get back to engineering basics. We don't have the luxury of a laminar-flow trench and a V-notch weir a mile under the sea, so we need to settle for measured exit-velocity and known pipe diameter. I trust the engineering approach, not a "guess" by the responsible party, anxious to down-play public reaction to the failure.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

A statement from the CEO of BP caught my attention today.

The Gulf of Mexico is a very big ocean. The amount of volume of oil and dispersant we are putting into it is tiny in relation to the total water volume," he said...

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/05/14/bp-exec-gulf-mexico-relatively-tiny-compared-big-ocean/

That isn't the correct argument. We have to consider the area involving the plume, and also that most the action is near the surface of the ocean. That is where most of the biology exists. And that is where the oil goes in the short term. One doesn't divide by the volume of the entire column of water to the ocean floor when considering the potential effects on biological systems. One might think he would know better. Perhaps not.

I believe that 0-300 feet, was the range loosely cited by one biologist as the major biosphere. I know that some plants like microalgae [base of the food chain sort of stuff] are only active at first millimeter or so of depth.

 

[IcedEcliptic]

Honestly, you're just blathering here. None of that has any relevance to what I said. My "good business" comment was only about their downplaying the damage and if you missed that, you need to step back, take a deep breath, and regain your composure.

Insulting me does not strengthen your position, and it is a disservice to your position on the site. If I said that you were blathering, would I not get an infraction? Oh keeper of the truth russ, act as though you are staff.

Downplaying damage when that damage can be confirmed is foolish in the long run. You are spouting nonsense, when there is now a great deal of information from Ivan, Ms. Evo and Astronuc, and I am still waiting for you to engage in the facts. MMS, BP, TO, and Haliburton are playing enough games with words, you do not need to shill for them. If this conversation offends you, leave it, but do not say that I am blathering; breaking rules you are supposed to uphold.

You say we do not have an idea what the flow rate is, and why is that? Why do we only have 30 seconds of video for researches to estimate a flow of nearly 70,000 barrels per day, when releasing more could help confirm or deny this? What of the dead battery in the BOP, and the statements being given by the BP CEO to British papers speaking of how small this leak is? You would happily speculate about physical theories, but this can only be analyzed in a few years? BS russ.

 

[mheslep]

The problem with BP's "method" is that it measures only the extent of the slick formed by the light fraction of the crude, from a well that is a mile underwater. What about the stuff that is dispersed by ocean currents and hasn't yet risen to the surface? In this case, estimating spill-rate by looking at the rate of movement of the discharged oil is about as accurate as we can hope for, and the results of that method dwarfs BP's assertions about the spill rate.

I think the objection is the other way around. BP is estimating, as I understand them, on what they believe is coming out at the source. The academic is estimating based on what they can see on the surface. (And what can one see from low Earth orbit?). How does one tell how much is reaching the surface?

 

[IcedEcliptic]

A statement from the CEO of BP caught my attention today.


http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/05/14/bp-exec-gulf-mexico-relatively-tiny-compared-big-ocean/

That isn't the correct argument. We have to consider the area involving the plume, and also that most the action is near the surface of the ocean. That is where most of the biology exists. And that is where the oil goes in the short term. One doesn't divide by the volume of the entire column of water to the ocean floor when considering the potential effects on biological systems. One might think he would know better. Perhaps not.

I believe that 0-300 feet, was the range loosely cited by one biologist as the major biosphere. I know that some plants like microalgae [base of the food chain sort of stuff] are only active at first millimeter or so of depth.

It is either his ignorance, or PR. Past spills can tell us the probable effects of this one. It is lucky that winds are not driving this inland, but the first hurricane or tropical depression will. In addition, while it seems data is short, there is a great deal if concern among marine biologists as to the effect of the oil and dispersants on fry, larvae, and small bivalves. The timing is such that this is hitting krill and other life in their earliest stages.

 

[IcedEcliptic]

I think the objection is the other way around. BP is estimating, as I understand them, on what they believe is coming out at the source. The academic is estimating based on what they can see on the surface. (And what can one see from low Earth orbit?). How does one tell how much is reaching the surface?

Other way around, BP is using surface calc, the other estimate is from 30 seconds of video of the flow. Remember that over 139,000 gallons of dispersant were deployed early, making surface estimates difficult. Meanwhile the MMS has issued 5 more licenses since this, and the congress of the US is too bought to act quickly and use subpoena power. They are too busy covering their rears, and acting outraged in a meaningless fashion.

 

[IcedEcliptic]

Who measured it and made that claim? That's not misinformation, that's suppressing information. There is a difference. Lol, c'mon - you're not serious, are you? You really think the video has some value? It doesn't. The only thing it does is cause people to go blind, as we can clearly see here.
<snip>

How do you know this? Please cite.

 

[Astronuc]

How many barrels of oil per day was the well producing at the time of the accident? Wouldn't that be a good rule of thumb for what the spill rate would be?

That would perhaps provide an upper limit. I would expect that BP would have a production rate planned for the well, and perhaps MMS would have an estimate for the purposes of royalty calculations.

The well was being developed and apparently was to be capped, with production being set up by a workover rig.

I believe the plan now is to put a 6-inch (15 cm) line inside the 21 inch casing and start pumping oil to a tanker. Assuming that stops the leak out of the well head, then one would have a reasonably good estimate on the leak rate.

 

[mheslep]

Other way around, BP is using surface calc, the other estimate is from 30 seconds of video of the flow. .

Yes I see now that the Wereley estimate (mech eng. professor) is made from video flow. I did not see where BP is using a surface calculation. BP came out with the 5k bbl /day estimate early, well before any dispersants could have been used.

 

[russ_watters]

An order of magnitude? The real flow rate may well be well over an order of magnitude, and likely is.

Huh? I mean the difference between the current estimates covers more than an order of magnitude - a factor of 10. Ie, 5000-100,000 is a little more than one order of magnitude.

BP's "method"...

AFAIK, that isn't BP's method, it is the government's method. In any case, certainly BP would choose the one most favorable to them to favor.

Engineers and scholars have applied real-world tools, and have pretty convincingly debunked BP's claims. I know which evaluations I would value and which I would dismiss.

When you have to evaluate a spill or leak in a remote location, you have to get back to engineering basics. We don't have the luxury of a laminar-flow trench and a V-notch weir a mile under the sea, so we need to settle for measured exit-velocity and known pipe diameter. I trust the engineering approach, not a "guess" by the responsible party, anxious to down-play public reaction to the failure.

...except that they don't actually know the exit pipe diameter, nor do they know the fraction of what is coming out that is gas and what is liquid!

 

[mheslep]

...except that they don't actually know the exit pipe diameter, nor do they know the fraction of what is coming out that is gas and what is liquid!

Or even what fraction of the liquid is oil, or seawater mixed in from earlier entry points.

 

[russ_watters]

Insulting me does not strengthen your position, and it is a disservice to your position on the site. If I said that you were blathering, would I not get an infraction? Oh keeper of the truth russ, act as though you are staff.

No, you wouldn't get an infraction. "Blather" is a word that means a foolish or thoughtless argument. Which is what you did there. You made an argument that didn't come anywhere close to addressing what I said. Clearly, it was thoughtless.

Downplaying damage when that damage can be confirmed is foolish in the long run.

Damage can't be confirmed, and regardless, I disagree. This is a fast developing situation, which lends itself well to overreaction and emotional responses at the start... which is what happened. From a business standpoint, downplaying the damage until the emotion wears off is the "correct" response.

You are spouting nonsense, when there is now a great deal of information from Ivan, Ms. Evo and Astronuc, and I am still waiting for you to engage in the facts.

What facts? Leak rate estimates are not facts!

You say we do not have an idea what the flow rate is, and why is that? Why do we only have 30 seconds of video for researches to estimate a flow of nearly 70,000 barrels per day, when releasing more could help confirm or deny this?

Clearly, because it is to BP's benefit to not release inflammatory information and to cling to a government estimate that is favorable to them.

What of the dead battery in the BOP, and the statements being given by the BP CEO to British papers speaking of how small this leak is?

We know the BoP failed. We know it had problems prior to failing. We know people made bad decisions. Perhaps realizing that in the past few days was a revelation to you, but it wasn't a revelation to me. Big engineering failures all have the same hallmarks. That said, none of this provides a specific conclusion about what happened. It is still just bits and pieces of information...and either way, what does it really matter at this point what the particulars of the failure were? Either way, BP is liable and they are going to be made to pay for it.

You would happily speculate about physical theories, but this can only be analyzed in a few years? BS russ.

I've said/done no such thing. You're reading into my posts things that I am not saying.

 

[IcedEcliptic]

Huh? I mean the difference between the current estimates covers more than an order of magnitude - a factor of 10. Ie, 5000-100,000 is a little more than one order of magnitude. AFAIK, that isn't BP's method, it is the government's method. In any case, certainly BP would choose the one most favorable to them to favor. ...except that they don't actually know the exit pipe diameter, nor do they know the fraction of what is coming out that is gas and what is liquid!

Wrong, the diameter is known, it is 21" in diameter.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/obama-blasts-oil-companies-over-spill-20100515-v4vg.html

Maybe it's time for a little reading and a break for you.

 

[russ_watters]

Wrong, the diameter is known, it is 21" in diameter.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/obama-blasts-oil-companies-over-spill-20100515-v4vg.html

Maybe it's time for a little reading and a break for you.

No:

Salvin also says these analyses should not assume that the oil is spewing from the 21-inch pipe, called a riser, shown in the video.

"The drill pipe, from which the oil is rising, is actually a 9-inch pipe that rests within the riser," Slavin said.

.....

 

[IcedEcliptic]

No:

.....

Slavin, the BP spoke?! Are you a shill, or just getting kicks from confrontation? Let me finish that quote for you rusty.

"We've said all along that there's no way to estimate the flow coming out of the pipe accurately," said Bill Salvin, a BP spokesman.

Instead, BP prefers to rely on measurements of oil on the sea surface made by the Coast Guard and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Those are also contentious. Salvin also says these analyses should not assume that the oil is spewing from the 21-inch pipe, called a riser, shown in the video.

"The drill pipe, from which the oil is rising, is actually a 9-inch pipe that rests within the riser," Slavin said.


But Wereley says that fact doesn't skew his calculation. And though scientists say they hope BP will eventually release more video and information so they can refine their estimates, what they have now is good enough.


"It's possible to get a pretty decent number by looking at the video," Wereley said.

This new, much larger number suggests that capturing — and cleaning up — this oil may be a much bigger challenge than anyone has let on.

So do we trust the man who is the PR flak, or the people including Wereley who are not beholden to BP?

 

[mheslep]

President Obama in the last couple of days:

"I will not tolerate more finger pointing or irresponsibility,"

"We will trust but we will verify,"

Is he talking about nukes in Iran? Saudi funding of jihadist madrasahs? Venezuelan funding of guerillas in Columbia? Nope, that would be overly antagonistic. But for Americans and American companies nothing is too antagonistic.

 

[Evo]

Slavin, the BP spoke?! Are you a shill, or just getting kicks from confrontation? Let me finish that quote for you rusty.



So do we trust the man who is the PR flak, or the people including Wereley who are not beholden to BP?

In this case, I would say that BP would know what is in the riser.

 

[IcedEcliptic]

Oh yes, do not forget that in 2 posts you go from "we don't know the diameter" to "it is 9 inches". You sir, are the one who is blathering and blithering, and picking and choosing your "facts". Massive intellectual dishonesty, for which you should be called to account by your peers and betters.

Yes, these are estimates, and the ones that are most trustworthy are far more than 5000 barrels, but you refute and actual scientist with a PR employee of a liable party. Start citing a lot, spare us your "guardianship" of speculation. I read into your posts, because what you do not say, and the standards you demand are not rational in this context.

 

[mheslep]

Slavin, the BP spoke?! Are you a shill, or just getting kicks from confrontation? Let me finish that quote for you rusty.



So do we trust the man who is the PR flak, or the people including Wereley who are not beholden to BP?

Why not stay on point. What is the diameter of the pipe where the leaks emit, and what is your source? The link you sited above only uses a BP source, and its not clear for what section.

 

[IcedEcliptic]

In this case, I would say that BP would know what is in the riser.

I would say they have proven to be lying bastards who have a strong motivation to extend this in the hopes that the public may move to other stories. They are already in a legal defense mode, but the scientists on the outside are not.

 

[IcedEcliptic]

Why not stay on point. What is the diameter of the pipe where the leaks emit, and what is your source? The link you sited above only uses a BP source, and its not clear for what section.

Professor Steven Wereley at Purdue University is the other source. We then consider if we trust BP

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/12/news/companies/bp_house_hearing/index.htm

 

[WhoWee]

Slavin, the BP spoke?! Are you a shill, or just getting kicks from confrontation? Let me finish that quote for you rusty.

There is no reason to be rude.

 

[IcedEcliptic]

There is no reason to be rude.

He said I was blathering earlier, so I am no longer respectful of him. Being insulted is a fine reason to return that favor.

 

[WhoWee]

He said I was blathering earlier, so I am no longer respectful of him. Being insulted is a fine reason to return that favor.

That is an interesting perspective. Here is another, have you noticed that Russ is attempting to deal with you in a fair way...addressing each of your points and explaining his own comments?

 

[jreelawg]

Sources for anyone of those claims?

I expect people who are discussing the issue have a general knowledge of what they are discussing.

 

[mheslep]

Professor Steven Wereley at Purdue University is the other source. We then consider if we trust BP

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/12/news/companies/bp_house_hearing/index.htm

What is the point posting that CNN link? There's no mention pipe diameter or Wereley. There is reference once again to the 5000 bbl / day rate.

 

[IcedEcliptic]

That is an interesting perspective. Here is another, have you noticed that Russ is attempting to deal with you in a fair way...addressing each of your points and explaining his own comments?

Clearly this is not a perspective I share, although you are welcome to it. When I am being fair, I try not to insult people to get their attention. I do not constantly remind all and sundry that this information is of estimates, and then cite questionable sources. I see a sharp contrast between the offerings of other mentors in this thread, and russ. As for the rest, once a man has shown you disrespect and dismissal, shall he not expect the same in return? I quote an impartial expert, he quotes a BP shill out of context. If that, and "blathering" is fair and addressing points, I must be missing it in all of his terse "copy pasta".

 

[IcedEcliptic]

What is the point posting that CNN link? There's no mention pipe diameter or Wereley. There is reference once again to the 5000 bbl / day rate.

It was a reference to whether or not BP is to be trusted in this.

 

[mheslep]

It was a reference to whether or not BP is to be trusted in this.

In other words another distraction from any coherent discussion.

 

[WhoWee]

Clearly this is not a perspective I share, although you are welcome to it. When I am being fair, I try not to insult people to get their attention. I do not constantly remind all and sundry that this information is of estimates, and then cite questionable sources. I see a sharp contrast between the offerings of other mentors in this thread, and russ. As for the rest, once a man has shown you disrespect and dismissal, shall he not expect the same in return? I quote an impartial expert, he quotes a BP shill out of context. If that, and "blathering" is fair and addressing points, I must be missing it in all of his terse "copy pasta".

Robust debate is my favorite flavor.

However, at the end of the day, we all strive to respect the PF and each other (regardless of our opinions). That's what makes this the BEST site on the web.

Let's keep it friendly.