News Is Offshore Oil Drilling Truly Safe?

[turbo]

Russ, I was employed for a time as a troubleshooter in the pulp and paper industry. I had to take the opinions of dueling experts (supporting the agendas of the people signing their checks) with a big grain of salt. Often there was potentially millions of dollars at stake. Paper company engineers and maintenance managers would make unsupported claims against their suppliers of equipment and consumables, only to be involved in cat-fights with the experts from those entities. Rarely did it take me more than a couple of hours to discern the source of an operational problem that was crippling a paper machine, costing tens of thousands of dollars per hour in lost revenues and excess operating costs. Troubleshooting requires an appreciation of what is and what is not physically possible.

One maintenance manager claimed that a dryer felt was violently shaking a dryer section, based on the "evidence" that the shaking lined up pretty well with the passage of the felt's seam over a guide roll. It took me longer to persuade the superintendent to re-start the dryer section than it took me to find the problem. A loose retaining nut on a huge helical-cut bull-gear. I found it by using my flashlight as a stethoscope. The supplier of that dryer felt could possibly have lost a million dollars a year (easy) in business if upper management believed the maintenance manager and the engineering staff, only to have the true cause covered up by the idiots when they stumbled upon it eventually. Another time, I dropped into a mill with a dear old friend to troubleshoot their largest paper machine, which had not made a shred of salable paper in weeks. My friend knew that my expertise was strongest around the wet end of the machine, so we split the machine in two and looked it over. It took me about 1/2 hour to find the problem (improperly positioned breast roll due to the raising cables not being slacked after raising and securing the breast roll assembly) and it took me and my friend a couple of hours to organize a meeting of the brass, and another hour to convince the engineers that they were wrong. My friend (a trouble-shooter with a higher billable rate than me) finally stood up at the meeting, pointed at the superintendent and said "Either do what he has told you to do (re-align the breast roll assembly and re-shoot the headbox slice) or you won't make another lick of paper. We're leaving."

So when BP confidently claims that the leak is 5000 bbl/day and several prominent professionals claim that the number is way understated, I tend to discount the BP account. Petro engineers have a bottom line to protect. Then when BP claimed to be recovering 5000 bbl/day through their soda-straw while the bulk of the petro appeared to be still blasting out of the header, that discredited BP's claims further.

If you believe BP and want to low-ball the flow rate, have at it. The fact that they would not allow the experts from Woods Hole to send instruments on-site and measure the leak speaks volumes about their credibility.

I have been in the trenches in heavy industry, and physically unreal problems are cited all the time to deflect blame, like the claim that a dryer felt weighing several hundred pounds could violently shake a huge cast-iron and steel dryer section every few seconds. "Wait and see" and credulous acceptance of BP's claims do no good for the gulf residents who make their livings from the sea.

 

[russ_watters]

So when BP confidently claims that the leak is 5000 bbl/day...

...Then when BP claimed to be recovering 5000 bbl/day through their soda-straw while the bulk of the petro appeared to be still blasting out of the header...

Turbo-1, you need to stop making these factually wrong claims, plus deal with the ones you've already made that have been pointed out to you. All of your non-sequitur does not distract from the fact that you are stating unreferenced factual falshoods.

Correct yourself!

 

[turbo]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/05/19/94467/engineer-oil-spill-videos-show.html

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127012041

There's a lot more out there if you are interested,

 

[turbo]

To the OP: No off-shore oil drilling is not safe if the companies that you hand permits to are not competent, and claim that they have disaster- recovery plans that fail to address even modest failures. The US needs to seriously reconsider its stance on off-shore drilling and extraction, and tighten standards. When a company owned by foreign nationals is allowed to write their own inspection reports, dodge regulations, and then foul one of the most productive fisheries in the US, that's a pretty big wake-up call.

 

[zomgwtf]

To the OP: No off-shore oil drilling is not safe if the companies that you hand permits to are not competent, and claim that they have disaster- recovery plans that fail to address even modest failures. The US needs to seriously reconsider its stance on off-shore drilling and extraction, and tighten standards. When a company owned by foreign nationals is allowed to write their own inspection reports, dodge regulations, and then foul one of the most productive fisheries in the US, that's a pretty big wake-up call.

You claim that this gusher is around 100,000 bbl/day and you claim that it's only a modest failure? Give me a break. This is something that has been quite catastrophic. It sucks that it happened, it sucks even more for the guys @ BP that it happened to them but hopefully we take from it and learn then apply that knowledge to future oil drilling.

 

[mheslep]

To the OP: No off-shore oil drilling is not safe if the companies that you hand permits to are not competent, and claim that they have disaster- recovery plans that fail to address even modest failures. The US needs to seriously reconsider its stance on off-shore drilling and extraction, and tighten standards. When a company owned by foreign nationals is allowed to write their own inspection reports, dodge regulations, and then foul one of the most productive fisheries in the US, that's a pretty big wake-up call.

A wake up call to do what? Tighten standards, sure. What else? Import replacement oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran?

 

[magpies]

So like I was wondering if this oil spill will create a pocket of stench that will drift over the land? Cause like I really don't want to be smelling oil for the next few months. :(

 

[mheslep]

So like I was wondering if this oil spill will create a pocket of stench that will drift over the land? Cause like I really don't want to be smelling oil for the next few months. :(

Incense. Problem solved.

 

[Proton Soup]

So like I was wondering if this oil spill will create a pocket of stench that will drift over the land? Cause like I really don't want to be smelling oil for the next few months. :(

i would expect it to create smog (depending on the amount of volatiles released) as we move on into the summer months.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

...Even the EPA's monitoring of air quality on the gulf shoreline, 50 miles from the oil leak, has detected petroleum odors strong enough to cause sickness. The agency's website warns coastal residents: "Some of these chemicals may cause short-lived effects like headache, eye, nose and throat irritation, or nausea."...

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-workers-sick-20100526,0,4604887.story

Some fisherman involved in the cleanup, and other, have reported problems.

Yesterday in Venice, Louisiana, fishermen and local residents called a press conference to talk about the air. People complained of the oily smells when the wind is blowing off the water, and listed symptoms including headaches, nosebleeds, asthma attacks, cough, nausea, and vomiting. Those who had been out on the water said it was even worse out there...

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/gsolomon/sick_fishermen_and_oily_smells.html

 

[Ivan Seeking]

You claim that this gusher is around 100,000 bbl/day and you claim that it's only a modest failure? Give me a break. This is something that has been quite catastrophic. It sucks that it happened, it sucks even more for the guys @ BP that it happened to them but hopefully we take from it and learn then apply that knowledge to future oil drilling.

The decision to go ahead with drilling operations of this nature, while knowing full well that there was no immediate solution to a bop failure, is not a matter of lessons learned for industry. It was a catastrophic and mind-numbingly arrogant failure of responsibility and common sense. The only lesson to be learned here is that industry cannot be trusted. If everyone doesn't get that by now, or at least by the time this is over [well, that won't be for another decade or two, at least], then we deserve what we get. Drill baby drill!

They knowingly bet that a failure was not a possibliity. That is unforgivable! The only thing that would be more unforgivable is if we ever trust industry with this sort of responsiblity again. And that goes for the nuclear industry as well. From now on, when it comes to oil and nuclear, I am a die-hard regulation hawk. Screw the free market. We can't afford to have these kinds of disasters.

Did anyone catch the CEO of Shell going at it with James Carville, on CNN? The CEO actually had the nerve to defend this by in effect saying: Hey, 1:33,000 wells ain't bad! That's what we get from industry. Even today, in the midst of this crisis, he had the gall to suggest or imply that this is somehow statistically acceptable.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

My guess is that most people haven't even begun to grasp the scope of this disaster. At this point I fear the absolute worst.

God I hope this top kill works. It should start in a few more hours. The bad news: The methods to stop this were executed in the order of least to greatest risk. If the top kill fails, it could make things worse. Today they were carefully reviewing calculations to ensure that they don't damage the bop. They have to apply as much pressure as they can without causing the bop to rupture. That may be why BP wanted to kill the live camera feed when they do the top kill.

At Obama's "request", the camera feed will be kept on.

 

[pallidin]

You know, what's so hard about plugging this leak?
I'll tell you right now: It's hard for BP to let go of a "money" well.

They would rather spend months trying to figure out how to re-capture the flow than to stop the environmental disaster.

What a shame.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Oh yes, the CEO of Shell did have one interesting suggestion. He cited another spill in the ME where a fleet of oil tankers were used to suck up the oil and water at the source. The tankers have huge pumps and a million gallon capacity. They were able to capture about 75% of the oil that way.

According to Carville, any tankers that could be used are sitting offshore and unavailable; stocked full of oil, waiting for the price of fuel to rise. But right now he's a ragin Cajun, so he might have been blowing off steam. I did note that the CEO of Shell didn't object to this claim.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

You know, what's so hard about plugging this leak?
I'll tell you right now: It's hard for BP to let go of a "money" well.

They would rather spend months trying to figure out how to re-capture the flow than to stop the environmental disaster.

What a shame.

Oh, I have no doubt that they are doing everything possible now. The entire industry is involved and offering any help possible. They know that this will affect all oil companies.

Philippe Cousteau himself stated that he has seen engineers at BP weeping openly. But no amount of tears will fix this now.

 

[russ_watters]

The only lesson to be learned here is that industry cannot be trusted.

That's a pretty empty lesson to be learned. The whole point of a system of laws and indeed government itself is that people cannot be trusted to do the right thing and must have it enforced by government. I can't imagine that anyone would have said prior to this accident that they would trust BP to do the right thing even without laws to properly regulate it.

 

[rcgldr]

I scanned through this thread, but didn't see any references to the 60 minutes episode where they interviewed an employee that was on the rig, and talked 60 minutes through what went wrong. One of the control panels on the BOP had gone out. One of the key components of the BOP, a large rubber seal, was damaged by operator error, confirmed when chunks of rubber showed up in the return "mud". A BP manager overrode the rig managers decision about finshing up the well, deciding to use sea water instead of the denser "mud" on the final (uppermost) section of the well sealing process, in order to speed up the later process where the well would be put into operation.

When the blowout did occur, the methane gas caused the diesel generators to overrev and resulted in electrical failures that worsened the situation. An explosion might have been inevitable, but without the generators going wild, they might have been able to get all the workers off the rig before the explosion. No explanation was given for why whatever regulating devices on the generators were not able to throttle them back to avoid overevving.

In general it was a case of management rushing the work inspite of the risks.

 

[WhoWee]

The decision to go ahead with drilling operations of this nature, while knowing full well that there was no immediate solution to a bop failure, is not a matter of lessons learned for industry. It was a catastrophic and mind-numbingly arrogant failure of responsibility and common sense. The only lesson to be learned here is that industry cannot be trusted. If everyone doesn't get that by now, or at least by the time this is over [well, that won't be for another decade or two, at least], then we deserve what we get. Drill baby drill!

They knowingly bet that a failure was not a possibliity. That is unforgivable! The only thing that would be more unforgivable is if we ever trust industry with this sort of responsiblity again. And that goes for the nuclear industry as well. From now on, when it comes to oil and nuclear, I am a die-hard regulation hawk. Screw the free market. We can't afford to have these kinds of disasters.

Did anyone catch the CEO of Shell going at it with James Carville, on CNN? The CEO actually had the nerve to defend this by in effect saying: Hey, 1:33,000 wells ain't bad! That's what we get from industry. Even today, in the midst of this crisis, he had the gall to suggest or imply that this is somehow statistically acceptable.

Good job Ivan...never let a good crisis go to waste. I think you've made a great case (statistically) for shutting down the space program (actually aviation in general), the nuclear industry, probably mining, construction of large structures, logging, and etc. Please keep adding to the list - it's your big opportunity.

By the way, are you ever going to tell us how long it will take for the algae to replenish?

 

[WhoWee]

Oh yes, the CEO of Shell did have one interesting suggestion. He cited another spill in the ME where a fleet of oil tankers were used to suck up the oil and water at the source. The tankers have huge pumps and a million gallon capacity. They were able to capture about 75% of the oil that way.

According to Carville, any tankers that could be used are sitting offshore and unavailable; stocked full of oil, waiting for the price of fuel to rise. But right now he's a ragin Cajun, so he might have been blowing off steam. I did note that the CEO of Shell didn't object to this claim.

Maybe Obama should encourage them to flood the market with cheap oil...that might become his most effective stimulus to date?

 

[jackmell]

It's an acceptable risk in my opinion and most of business and government know and accept this although they won't say in public. Let me give a more harsh (fiction) scenario to exemplify this acceptance:

It's really a cover-up: it's not the well that's leaking but rather one of the undersea pipes transporting off-shore oil to the U.S was punctured by the collapsing rig. Both BP and the government know this and can easily just shut off a valve upstream of the leak but that would disrupt the flow of oil from other rigs to the U.S. They don't do this and rather accept the consequences of poisoning the Gulf at the expense of maintaining the oil flow.

That would happen in my opinion because oil is that important to the U.S. economy.

 

[mheslep]

Our government was not put in place to insure people 'do the right thing'. Societal institutions and norms have that job. The government is in place to secure a minimum of basic rights 'among men', with a great deal of restrictions on the government, knowing that government always and everywhere tends to gather more power to itself, consisting only of the same people, i.e. corruptible and fallible, that make up the rest of the nation. In this case the Interior Department is a good example of those foibles.

 

[magpies]

I saw something I can't find it now about how some of the crew on ships working the cleanup efforts are getting sick :( Man this blows :(

 

[Mech_Engineer]

It appears that the "top-kill" has worked in stopping the well, at least according to the Coast Guard:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-spill-top-kill-20100528,0,5782115.story

Engineers have stopped the flow of oil and gas into the Gulf of Mexico from a gushing BP well, the federal government's top oil-spill commander, U.S. Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, said Thursday morning.

The "top kill" effort, launched Wednesday afternoon by industry and government engineers, had pumped enough drilling fluid to block oil and gas spewing from the well, Allen said. The pressure from the well was very low, he said, but persisting.

Once engineers had reduced the well pressure to zero, they were to begin pumping cement into the hole to entomb the well. To help in that effort, he said, engineers also were pumping some debris into the blowout preventer at the top of the well.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It appears that the "top-kill" has worked in stopping the well, at least according to the Coast Guard:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-spill-top-kill-20100528,0,5782115.story

Now BP admits that they stopped pumping mud at midnight, last night. Apparently the pumping was stopped twice and resumed only a short time ago. In an interview with BP CEO a little bit ago, mention was made of bridging material, which alludes to the next logical step, a "junk shot". Not encouraging. They say it will take another 24 to 48 hours before we know if the top kill worked.


Unrelated

Louisiana Congressman Charlie Melancon broke down during a House Energy subcommittee meeting Thursday morning talking about the BP Oil spill and the coastal damage the spill has caused. (May 27) (The Associated Press)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2010/05/27/VI2010052704905.html
Note that there is a cool video of a missile launch from a B-52, after the video of the Congressman.

 

[edward]

It appears that a BP official cut some corners.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/stories/DN-oilspill_27tex.ART.State.Edition2.9bf5a9e.html

NEW ORLEANS – Company executives and top drill hands on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig argued for hours before a BP official decided to remove heavy drilling fluid from the well and replace it with lighter-weight seawater that was unable to prevent gas from surging to the surface and exploding, according to testimony at a Coast Guard hearing Wednesday.

Edit:

At the Coast Guard hearing Wednesday, Doug Brown , chief rig mechanic aboard the platform, testified that the BP official, whom he identified only as the "company man," overruled the drillers, declaring, "This is how it's going to be." Brown said the top Transocean official on the rig grumbled, "Well, I guess that's what we have those pinchers for," which Brown took to be a reference to devices on the blowout preventer, the five-story piece of equipment designed to slam a well shut in an emergency.

In a handwritten statement to the Coast Guard, Transocean rig worker Truitt Crawford said: "I overheard upper management talking saying that BP was taking shortcuts by displacing the well with saltwater instead of mud without sealing the well with cement plugs, this is why it blew out."

BP declined to comment on his statement.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It appears that a BP official cut some corners.

James Carville is even more out of his mind than normal; and that's saying something. His wife, Mary Matalin, is all but in tears most of the time. They live in Louisianna. Carville was all but personally threatening the CEO of BP, a little bit ago; suggesting that they have a prison just perfect for him, or something close to that.

Anyway, I don't know how seriously Carville can be taken right now as he is highly emotional, but he says lawyers in La. believe they have solid grounds for criminal prosecution.

 

[turbo]

Carville and Matalin are less marketable in these times. He's ramping it up to increase their exposure and get them some face-time on TV. Do you think that a millionaire is in an incoherent rage (we'll be killed!) because hundreds of thousands of Gulf residents are going to lose their livings for an undetermined amount of time? Nope.

Carville knows what sells, and he's selling it right now.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Carville and Matalin are less marketable in these times. He's ramping it up to increase their exposure and get them some face-time on TV. Do you think that a millionaire is in an incoherent rage (we'll be killed!) because hundreds of thousands of Gulf residents are going to lose their livings for an undetermined amount of time? Nope.

Carville knows what sells, and he's selling it right now.

I don't think so. He is naturaly hot-headed, so that is normal. But anyone can tell, imo, that they are both personally devestated. This is their home. Why wouldn't they be affected? He has nothing to gain by hyping this less helping to spotlight the problem. Naturally, he is well positioned to get a lot of air time. They both are. And given that they represent opposite sides of the fence, by appearing together, they send a strong political message.

Anyway, I've been watching Carville for twenty years. I believe he is sincere. Hell, he's been bashing Obama for days now. What more evidence do you need that this isn't politically motivated? That is completely out of character for Carville. If he is anything, he is the definition of a loyal Democrat.

 

[turbo]

I don't think so. He is naturaly hot-headed, so that is normal. But anyone can tell, imo, that they are both personally devestated. This is their home. Why wouldn't they be affected? He has nothing to gain by hyping this less helping to spotlight the problem. Naturally, he is well positioned to get a lot of air time. They both are. And given that they represent opposite sides of the fence, by appearing together, they send a strong political message.

Anyway, I've been watching Carville for twenty years. I believe he is sincere. Hell, he's been bashing Obama for days now. What more evidence do you need that this isn't politically motivated? That is completely out of character for Carville. If he is anything, he is the definition of a loyal Democrat.

I believe that Carville and Matalin will do anything to pump their prospects to headline on weekend news shows. That's what they do.

Carville has high-placed sources all through Obama's administration, and the fiction of acting like a liberal/progressive outsider who is "not in the loop" just doesn't hold any water. He can bash Obama all he wants, but it is silly to think that this well-connected commentator is not acting in his own self-interest.

 

[WhoWee]

I don't think so. He is naturaly hot-headed, so that is normal. But anyone can tell, imo, that they are both personally devestated. This is their home. Why wouldn't they be affected? He has nothing to gain by hyping this less helping to spotlight the problem. Naturally, he is well positioned to get a lot of air time. They both are. And given that they represent opposite sides of the fence, by appearing together, they send a strong political message.

Anyway, I've been watching Carville for twenty years. I believe he is sincere. Hell, he's been bashing Obama for days now. What more evidence do you need that this isn't politically motivated? That is completely out of character for Carville. If he is anything, he is the definition of a loyal Democrat.

Obama has taken responsibility for this event. Carville might prove more productive if he supported him?