News Is the Ballooning US Debt a Threat to Our Future Economic Situation?

[WhoWee]

As to what would be good for society it depends on what kind of society one wants. I feel it would be good for society to cut the military by 80%. But that is my desire shared by few.

Other than limiting national defense to a "nuclear only" response to ALL situations - how would you accomplish this cut?

 

[PhilKravitz]

I said there are two big items in the federal budget
1) military
2) health

Under health are many items hospitals, life long care of the cronically (sic) mentally ill, doctor visit for medicaid, medicare, prescription drugs. The pharm industry is just one part no they do not get all the health sending money of the federal government just some. But if we used only generic drugs they would get far less money and we society would spend far less money.

With social security off budget because it has its own revenue stream and 2500 billion in the bank (T bills). The only two major spending items are military and health spending.

 

[PhilKravitz]

How does the income of a doctor versus a nurse affect US debt levels?

If we spend less on medical care we will on net have less debt. Less money out => net money is more positive. Less deficit spending less total debt. If we can substitute cheap labor for expensive labor in appropriate situation we save money we are less poor more rich.

 

[WhoWee]

With social security off budget because it has its own revenue stream and 2500 billion in the bank (T bills).

Do you have a link?

 

[PhilKravitz]

Do you have a link?

Yes for the money in the bank see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_Trust_Fund

"It is instructive to note that the $2.5 Trillion Social Security Trust Fund has value, not as a tangible economic asset, but because it is a claim on behalf of beneficiaries on the goods and services produced by the working population. This claim will be enforced by the United States Government although the precise monetary mechanism of enforcement is yet to be determined. In order to repay the Trust Fund, the United States government has three options, which may all be pursued to varying degrees."

So 2.5T of the 13.5(?)T federal debt is ode to social security, people worked, they had their money taken from them and they expect to get it back, seems only fair.

for the tax that is the payroll tax. It was basically keeping even this year with ss payouts until they cut the payroll tax. Now it is short. One might think they are trying to kill social security by cutting is tax revenues.

 

[WhoWee]

Yes for the money in the bank see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_Trust_Fund

"It is instructive to note that the $2.5 Trillion Social Security Trust Fund has value, not as a tangible economic asset, but because it is a claim on behalf of beneficiaries on the goods and services produced by the working population. This claim will be enforced by the United States Government although the precise monetary mechanism of enforcement is yet to be determined. In order to repay the Trust Fund, the United States government has three options, which may all be pursued to varying degrees."

So 2.5T of the 13.5(?)T federal debt is owned to social security, people worked, they had their money taken from them and they expect to get it back, seems only fair.

for the tax that is the payroll tax. It was basically keeping even this year with ss payouts until they cut the payroll tax. Now it is short. One might think they are trying to kill social security by cutting is tax revenues.

Your post specifies the "Trust Fund" is empty. Also, the long term projections are that Social Security and Medicare distributions will increase.
http://www.gao.gov/cghome/townhall092905/img18.html

 

[PhilKravitz]

Your post specifies the "Trust Fund" is empty. Also, the long term projections are that Social Security and Medicare distributions will increase.
http://www.gao.gov/cghome/townhall092905/img18.html

The link says social security owns 2.5T of treasury bills. It is free to sell them on the open market to make ends meet. If you are says the federal government can not make good on its obligations well...

 

[WhoWee]

The link says social security owns 2.5T of treasury bills. It is free to sell them on the open market to make ends meet. If you are says the federal government can not make good on its obligations well...

Don't take my word for it:

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/fundFAQ.html#n7


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/06/AR2011010603244.html
"Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner warned lawmakers Thursday that the national debt could hit the legal limit on borrowing as soon as March 31, and he urged quick action to avoid a government default that would spark "catastrophic economic consequences that would last for decades." "

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

If we can substitute cheap labor for expensive labor in appropriate situation we save money we are less poor more rich.

I easily understand how I can become richer by spending less money. But I can't see how a country can do it. You make it seem that if everyone worked for a dollar an hour we'd all be rich.

 

[PhilKravitz]

Don't take my word for it:

http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/fundFAQ.html#n7

from your link

"As stated above, money flowing into the trust funds is invested in U. S. Government securities. Because the government spends this borrowed cash, some people see the current increase in the trust fund assets as an accumulation of securities that the government will be unable to make good on in the future."

Are you saying the federal government is bankrupt and will not make good on is commitments? It has a AAA credit rating.

 

[WhoWee]

from your link

"As stated above, money flowing into the trust funds is invested in U. S. Government securities. Because the government spends this borrowed cash, some people see the current increase in the trust fund assets as an accumulation of securities that the government will be unable to make good on in the future."

Are you saying the federal government is bankrupt and will not make good on is commitments? It has a AAA credit rating.

Again, don't take my word for it:

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/moody-s-sp-warn-us-debt-will-harm-credit#
"Credit rating agencies Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s (S&P) have warned that record levels of federal debt would eventually damage the government’s AAA credit rating, a move that would make further borrowing more difficult.

Moody’s, in its most recent update of borrowing conditions for AAA-rated sovereign debt, said that if the United States does not take action to reform entitlements and control deficit spending, it could lose its coveted AAA rating, which denotes that U.S. debt is the safest type of investment."

 

[PhilKravitz]

I easily understand how I can become richer by spending less money. But I can't see how a country can do it. You make it seem that if everyone worked for a dollar an hour we'd all be rich.

You have a good and interesting point.

 

[Al68]

I easily understand how I can become richer by spending less money. But I can't see how a country can do it.

I think the point was for government, not the country, to spend less.

 

[rhody]

Headlines from Reuter's picked up and re-transcribed this morning:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7096FE20110111"

The U.S. Federal Reserve's journey to the outer limits of monetary policy is raising concerns about how hard it will be to withdraw trillions of dollars in stimulus from the banking system when the time is right.

My question in my original post #34 above has not been addressed:

This could all start by a group of foreign governments deciding to not accept dollars at the prevailing rates, imposing discounted rates. We would have to deal with the fallout, and it will not bode well for the average American, people on fixed incomes, etc... etc...

What events could trigger this ?

Thanks...

Rhody...

 

[PhilKravitz]

What events could trigger this ?

In a sane and well managed world the central bankers (of Japan, China, Russia, France) and world bankers (IMF, World Bank) would get together and design a slow and gradual decline that would make thing less painful for all involved. They in effect would create a new Brenton Woods. In fact the name Bancor is from Brenton Woods. It was proposed by John Keynes. The more things change the more they stay the same! His proposal included a penalty tax on your Bancors if you ran a trade surplus! The funds to be used to help the backward countries that run a trade deficit. Picture that tax China to pay to develop the US LOL LOL LOL. Of course Kenyes never had experience with a nation that had out of control military spending that was bankrupting the nation. I guess that would be tax China to fund the US military what the heck?

 

[Evo]

If we spend less on medical care we will on net have less debt. Less money out => net money is more positive. Less deficit spending less total debt. If we can substitute cheap labor for expensive labor in appropriate situation we save money we are less poor more rich.

Sorry, but again, you're doing nothing but making unsupported random claims. A doctor's income doesn't really matter when it comes to managing costs of overall healthcare. Please stop posting unsupported opinions. Do some research before posting.

 

[PhilKravitz]

making unsupported random claims. A doctor's income doesn't really matter when it comes to managing costs of overall healthcare. Please stop posting unsupported opinions. Do some research before posting.

What does matter in managing the overall cost of healthcare?

 

[WhoWee]

In a sane and well managed world the central bankers (of Japan, China, Russia, France) and world bankers (IMF, World Bank) would get together and design a slow and gradual decline that would make thing less painful for all involved. They in effect would create a new Brenton Woods. In fact the name Bancor is from Brenton Woods. It was proposed by John Keynes. The more things change the more they stay the same! His proposal included a penalty tax on your Bancors if you ran a trade surplus! The funds to be used to help the backward countries that run a trade deficit. Picture that tax China to pay to develop the US LOL LOL LOL. Of course Kenyes never had experience with a nation that had out of control military spending that was bankrupting the nation. I guess that would be tax China to fund the US military what the heck?

I think you'll find this site pro-Keynes (full disclosure - I am not pro-Keynes). Please read the entire works - including his analysis of Liquidationism. Excerpted are a few of his thoughts regarding short term policy.
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/Economists/keynes.html

""Burke ever held, and held rightly, that it can seldom be right… sacrifice a present benefit for a doubtful advantage in the future…. It is not wise to look too far ahead; our powers of prediction are slight, our command over results infinitesimal. It is therefore the happiness of our own contemporaries that is our main concern; we should be very chary of sacrificing large numbers of people for the sake of a contingent end, however advantageous that may appear…. We can never know enough to make the chance worth taking. There is this further consideration that is often in need of emphasis: it is not sufficient that the state of affairs which we seek to promote should be better than the state of affairs which preceded it; it must be sufficiently better to make up for the evils of the transition…"

"In our present confusion of aims is there enough clear-sighted public spirit left to preserve the balanced and complicated organization by which we live? Communism is discredited by events; socialism, in its old-fashioned interpretation, no longer interests the world; capitalism has lost its self-confidence. Unless men are united by a common aim or moved by objective principles, each one’s hand will be against the rest and the unregulated pursuit of individual advantage may soon destroy the whole. There has been no common purpose lately between nations or between classes, except for war…"


Germany's Hyperinflation:

"If I felt confident I could control the budgetary position, I should not doubt my capacity in Germany’s present situation to control the exchange. As soon as the supply of currency is limited, I do not see how it is possible that the balance of trade should be adverse. I believe that the point of view which looks first to the balance of trade, and seeks for an improvement in that first of all, or alternatively to the support of a foreign loan, is deeply erroneous and has not penetrated to the true process of causation…""

 

[PhilKravitz]

I think you'll find this site pro-Keynes (full disclosure - I am not pro-Keynes).

Whowee I am not pro-Kenyes either. But I do like his idea of balanced trade that he brought to Brenton Woods and that was totally ignored.

 

[rhody]

Phil,

I think your meant to say, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system" , versus Brenton Woods... I have been there, the hotel that is and toured where the world financial leaders met, quite impressive, they have the room blocked off sort of as a shrine.

Rhody...

 

[PhilKravitz]

Phil,

I think your meant to say, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system" , versus Brenton Woods... I have been there, the hotel that is and toured where the world financial leaders met, quite impressive, they have the room blocked off sort of as a shrine.

Rhody...

ooopppsss yes you are right Bretton Woods

 

[Evo]

What does matter in managing the overall cost of healthcare?

You brought it up, do some research and then post your findings.

 

[rhody]

Maybe, small localized currencies are in our not too distant future as a way of protecting a regions wealth, think I am crazy, consider this, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BerkShares" in the Berkshires where I grew up (clever name, huh?) have been in circulation since 2006. Some smart, think outside the box ahead of their time folk, I reckon...

BerkShares are a local currency designed and issued for the Berkshire region of Massachusetts. According to the BerkShares website,[6] residents purchase BerkShares at 95 cents (USD) per BerkShare from one of twelve branches of five local participating banks. Businesses then accept BerkShares at full dollar value, differentiating the business as one supporting the BerkShares values' of local economy, ecology, sustainability, and community, and creating a five percent discount incentive for those using the currency. BerkShares can then be used by accepting businesses to purchase goods and services from other participating businesses, make change, pay salaries, or support local non-profits, increasing the local economic multiplier effect and keeping value recirculating in the region. If businesses have an excess of BerkShares, they may also be returned to a participating bank at the equivalent rate of 95 cents per BerkShare (i.e., charging no exchange fee).

Over 70 area non-profits currently accept BerkShares for donations. Participating banks provide BerkShares with 13 brick-and-mortar offices where residents can exchange dollars for BerkShares and receive more information on the project.

Rhody...

 

[Al68]

Maybe, small localized currencies are in our not too distant future as a way of protecting a regions wealth, think I am crazy, consider this, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BerkShares" in the Berkshires where I grew up (clever name, huh?) have been in circulation since 2006. Some smart, think outside the box ahead of their time folk, I reckon...


Rhody...

Sure, but "Berkshares" are not a different currency, they are just bank notes redeemable for U.S. dollars. Legally, they are nothing more than a bearer note for 95 cents that some retailers are giving a 5 cent discount for using.

 

[rhody]

Sure, but "Berkshares" are not a different currency, they are just bank notes redeemable for U.S. dollars. Legally, they are nothing more than a bearer note for 95 cents that some retailers are giving a 5 cent discount for using.

Al68,

This is true for the moment at least, but if the US currency is devalued say 30% and people are used to dealing in Berkshares for .95 cents on the dollar, it is not too far of a stretch to suggest that they could at least regionally set their own exchange rate in the region based on Berkshares alone for participating members. It is all contingent on that magic ingredient, "trust", in return for goods and services, simple as that. I would dare to suggest that Berkshares could be used just like other valuable assets, gold, etc... in times of crisis. Of course control over the number of shares printed is important for the regional currency to hold it's value, just like it is with the run-away dollar. Print too many Berkshares and we are in the same ballgame all over again.

Rhody...

 

[Al68]

Al68,

This is true for the moment at least, but if the US currency is devalued say 30% and people are used to dealing in Berkshares for .95 cents on the dollar, it is not too far of a stretch to suggest that they could at least regionally set their own exchange rate in the region based on Berkshares alone for participating members. It is all contingent on that magic ingredient, "trust", in return for goods and services, simple as that. I would dare to suggest that Berkshares could be used just like other valuable assets, gold, etc... in times of crisis. Of course control over the number of shares printed is important for the regional currency to hold it's value, just like it is with the run-away dollar. Print too many Berkshares and we are in the same ballgame all over again.

Rhody...

They are not like gold, silver, etc. that have intrinsic value. Their only value is from their backing by those issuing banks, ie backed only by U.S. dollars.

They will always be worth 0.95 U.S. dollars, unless they either become worthless because those banks go bankrupt, or they gain numismatic value due to rarity, which is a different matter altogether, and seemingly unlikely.

 

[Jasongreat]

Sorry, but again, you're doing nothing but making unsupported random claims. A doctor's income doesn't really matter when it comes to managing costs of overall healthcare. Please stop posting unsupported opinions. Do some research before posting.

Are saying that if a procedure costs 1,000 dollars or if it costs 10,000 dollars, it has no impact on healthcare costs? Doctors incomes have to have an impact on costs, don't they?

 

[rhody]

They are not like gold, silver, etc. that have intrinsic value. Their only value is from their backing by those issuing banks, ie backed only by U.S. dollars.

They will always be worth 0.95 U.S. dollars, unless they either become worthless because those banks go bankrupt, or they gain numismatic value due to rarity, which is a different matter altogether, and seemingly unlikely.

Al68,

Thanks, I was unfamiliar with the term, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numismatics" , I don't think it will come to that, but interesting to note it was used in ancient cultures without a monetary system.

Lacking a structured monetary system, people in the past lived in a barter society and used locally found items of inherent or implied value. A few people today still use bartering in absence of a monetary system. Early money used by people is referred to as "Odd and Curious", but the use of other goods in barter exchange is excluded, even where used as a circulating currency (e.g., cigarettes in prison). The Kyrgyz people used horses as the principal currency unit and gave small change in lambskins.

Rhody...

 

[Al68]

Thanks, I was unfamiliar with the term, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numismatics" , I don't think it will come to that, but interesting to note it was used in ancient cultures without a monetary system.

I would note also that a fiat monetary system, as we know it today, was never used in the U.S., and rarely elsewhere, until relatively recently. Coining money just meant pressing gold, silver, etc. into a flat circle stamped to guarantee its composition. It was real money. And paper notes were IOU's for real money, ie gold/silver. Real money can't be devalued by its issuer after it's issued.

Wouldn't it be nice to be able to write a check to buy something, with magical ink that later reduces the amount of the check? That's essentially what government does, effectively taxing everyone in addition to all the other means of taxation.

Also interesting is that coining real money is still done today, by both government and private companies, but they now must be called silver or gold "rounds" instead of "coins" because they are real money instead of fiat money.

 

[mheslep]

I'm not only worried about what our debt levels mean to our long-term economic growth and http://www.neverfailgroup.com" , but how they affect our national security. When a sworn enemy owns a significant portion of your debt, it can seriously undermine your ability to defend yourself.

The only "sworn enemy" the United States has now is the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Some others might be counted as openly antagonistic relationships, like N. Korea, Iran, Hamas. One doesn't trade ~$360 billion per year with sworn enemies.

 

[rhody]

Here is a new wrinkle from a young man ahead of his time, thinking outside the box, Mr. Zuckerberg... of Facebook: who sees the impending devaluation of our currency, and his response to it:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/28/facebook-pay-our-way-or-get-out/

As Facebook starts to host all sorts of commerce -- and is now mandating the use of its currency -- perhaps it's time to stop thinking of it as a company and start thinking of it as a country.

and

Imagine, for a moment, that you're the central banker of a country with nearly 600 million residents. Your economy is growing quickly, and the bigger it gets, the more foreign investors are knocking at your door, trying to hawk their wares and build within your borders. Nobody knows how much your economy is actually worth -- some place the GDP at $50 billion, making it the 73rd largest economy in the world, though everyone agrees that your country will be a global force for years to come.

But there's one sector of your economy that won't fall in line. By the end of the year, it'll be worth over a billion dollars and it has proved to be sustainable even during an economic downturn. But a lot of the companies that make up the industry don't want to use the national currency. They'd rather use their own currencies and avoid a hefty 30% tax on all transactions.

But, as a wise central banker, you know that for a country to grow its economy, it needs a singular currency so the proletariat doesn't get confused. You've been able to convince the largest companies to use the national currency, but rogue stragglers remain. What do you do?

Tell them they can either use the currency or get the hell out.

and

Facebook, already a technological and cultural hegemon, is becoming an economic one as well. A key feature of Facebook's decree is that developers can still use their own currencies; they'll just have to peg the local currency to Facebook Credits.

An interesting twist ? No ?

Rhody...

 

[WhoWee]

Here is a new wrinkle from a young man ahead of his time, thinking outside the box, Mr. Zuckerberg... of Facebook: who sees the impending devaluation of our currency, and his response to it:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/28/facebook-pay-our-way-or-get-out/
and
and
An interesting twist ? No ?
Rhody...

It is. I like this fellow and recently responded to him on a facebook post regarding IPO strategy. Given the wide distribution of member/friends I think he'd be wise to accept EVERY currency at this point - as one increases - another decreases.

 

[mugaliens]

Here is a new wrinkle from a young man ahead of his time, thinking outside the box, Mr. Zuckerberg...

Oh, heck no! Under his plan all the funds flowing out of our hands would have even less accountability than the hundreds of millions that flowed "through" the Clinton foundation into Haiti.

But didn't.

Are you out of your mind?

 

[WhoWee]

Oh, heck no! Under his plan all the funds flowing out of our hands would have even less accountability than the hundreds of millions that flowed "through" the Clinton foundation into Haiti.

But didn't.

Are you out of your mind?

Quite possibly - but the young man has a unique problem set. LOL

 

[mugaliens]

Quite possibly - but the young man has a unique problem set. LOL

Since we all pay taxes, isn't it all our problem? One day, the account will most certainly come due, and it won't matter who has paid what up until that time. At that time, we will all wind up paying dearly.

 

[WhoWee]

Since we all pay taxes, isn't it all our problem? One day, the account will most certainly come due, and it won't matter who has paid what up until that time. At that time, we will all wind up paying dearly.

With interest - I was merely commenting on the facebook scenario.