B Is this curve quadratic or exponential?

[morrobay]

TL;DR

Covid cases in Thailand June 1 to July 24

Does this curve look quadratic or exponential

 

[morrobay]

I got this from orange bar graph with dy/dt =ky. But with so many unknowns in cases reporting maybe a quadratic curve would be more accurate ?

 

[fresh_42]

It looks exponential. And as soon as nature is involved, it is exponential anyway. The lockdowns have been so hard because they should break down exponential behavior. I think there are websites on which you can calculate SIR models. Have a look at
https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...th-and-other-curiosities.970262/#post-6164027

 

[jedishrfu]

Yeah, we know infectious disease follows an exponential curve always. However, data may not accurately reflect the curve, or may come in delayed, or vaccine efforts may blunt the effect and may make it look quadratic.

I think paper discusses these issues better and shows where sometimes a quadratic model comes out of the data:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8027562/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8027562/