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Last stat question nearly done

  1. Apr 10, 2014 #1
    1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data
    Of all archers at one particular competition
    50% are local (1/2)
    40% come from another state (2/5)
    10% are international (1/10)

    At the end of the competition some of the archers choose to go on a specially organised bus tour

    Of the locals 35% go on the tour (35/100)
    of those from another state 45% go on the tour (45/100)
    of those from overseas 75% go on tour (75/100)

    At the end of the tour, an unlabelled bag is found on the bus.
    What is the probability the bag belong to a local



    2. Relevant equations
    Have to choose between bernoulli, binomial, poisson, geometric, hyper geometric and negative binomial methods


    3. The attempt at a solution

    P of a local is going to the tour is (1/2)(35/100)= 7/40
    P of not being a local is (1-7/40)= 33/40

    Assuming: probability is constant for all, independent,

    is the the probability (7/40)(33/40)= 231/1600 by bernoulli method
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Apr 10, 2014 #2
    Actually nah new idea... use a tree diagram and it's a 0.5*0.35
     
  4. Apr 10, 2014 #3

    Ray Vickson

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    Homework Helper

    Who says you have to choose between bernoulli, binomial, poisson, geometric, hyper geometric and negative binomial? None of these have anything at all to do with the given problem. Anyway, those named things are not "methods"; they are distributions.
     
  5. Apr 14, 2014 #4

    So... what did you did think of my answer haha 0.5*0.35
     
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