Last stat question nearly done

[ivan_x3000]

Homework Statement

Of all archers at one particular competition
50% are local (1/2)
40% come from another state (2/5)
10% are international (1/10)

At the end of the competition some of the archers choose to go on a specially organised bus tour

Of the locals 35% go on the tour (35/100)
of those from another state 45% go on the tour (45/100)
of those from overseas 75% go on tour (75/100)

At the end of the tour, an unlabelled bag is found on the bus.
What is the probability the bag belong to a local

Homework Equations

Have to choose between bernoulli, binomial, poisson, geometric, hyper geometric and negative binomial methods

The Attempt at a Solution

P of a local is going to the tour is (1/2)(35/100)= 7/40
P of not being a local is (1-7/40)= 33/40

Assuming: probability is constant for all, independent,

is the the probability (7/40)(33/40)= 231/1600 by bernoulli method

 

[ivan_x3000]

Actually nah new idea... use a tree diagram and it's a 0.5*0.35

 

[Ray Vickson]

Homework Statement

Of all archers at one particular competition
50% are local (1/2)
40% come from another state (2/5)
10% are international (1/10)

At the end of the competition some of the archers choose to go on a specially organised bus tour

Of the locals 35% go on the tour (35/100)
of those from another state 45% go on the tour (45/100)
of those from overseas 75% go on tour (75/100)

At the end of the tour, an unlabelled bag is found on the bus.
What is the probability the bag belong to a local

Homework Equations

Have to choose between bernoulli, binomial, poisson, geometric, hyper geometric and negative binomial methods

The Attempt at a Solution

P of a local is going to the tour is (1/2)(35/100)= 7/40
P of not being a local is (1-7/40)= 33/40

Assuming: probability is constant for all, independent,

is the the probability (7/40)(33/40)= 231/1600 by bernoulli method

Who says you have to choose between bernoulli, binomial, poisson, geometric, hyper geometric and negative binomial? None of these have anything at all to do with the given problem. Anyway, those named things are not "methods"; they are distributions.

 

[ivan_x3000]

Who says you have to choose between bernoulli, binomial, poisson, geometric, hyper geometric and negative binomial? None of these have anything at all to do with the given problem. Anyway, those named things are not "methods"; they are distributions.

So... what did you did think of my answer haha 0.5*0.35