MHB Likelihood of things happening on with regularity depending on initial probability

AI Thread Summary
The discussion focuses on calculating the probability of events occurring a specific number of times based on given probabilities. The original poster seeks guidance on determining the likelihood of an event with a 43.5% chance happening 12 to 14 times over 15 trials, and 17 to 19 times over 20 trials, as well as similar calculations for a 38% probability. A response indicates that this scenario can be addressed using the binomial distribution, which is suitable for experiments with two possible outcomes. The poster is encouraged to clarify their familiarity with this concept and the purpose of their inquiry. Understanding these calculations can enhance future probability assessments.
ReamsOfVerse
Messages
1
Reaction score
0
Hello All,

Firstly, what a wonderful place for people to help one and other. I am glad that I have stumbled across : )

I have posted this query in advanced because to me there it is advanced but if it is basic to others then please excuse me.

I can easily work out the probability of something happening every time at general probability or odds but I fall down when working out the probability of it happening a lesser number of times.

If there is a 43.5% of something happening on a single occasion.

If it is run on 15 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 12,13 and 14 times.
If it is run on 20 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 17,18 and 19 times.

If there is a 38% of something happening on a single occasion.

If it is run on 15 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 12,13 and 14 times.
If it is run on 20 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 17,18 and 19 times.

Any help, particularly in how I go about calculating so that I know for future reference would be a massive help.
 
Mathematics news on Phys.org
ReamsOfVerse said:
Hello All,

Firstly, what a wonderful place for people to help one and other. I am glad that I have stumbled across : )

I have posted this query in advanced because to me there it is advanced but if it is basic to others then please excuse me.

I can easily work out the probability of something happening every time at general probability or odds but I fall down when working out the probability of it happening a lesser number of times.

If there is a 43.5% of something happening on a single occasion.

If it is run on 15 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 12,13 and 14 times.
If it is run on 20 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 17,18 and 19 times.

If there is a 38% of something happening on a single occasion.

If it is run on 15 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 12,13 and 14 times.
If it is run on 20 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 17,18 and 19 times.

Any help, particularly in how I go about calculating so that I know for future reference would be a massive help.

Hi ReamsOfVerse,

Welcome to MHB! :)

This sounds like a problem using the binomial distribution. This is when an event can either occur or not occur with some fixed probability, and we want to run this experiment multiple times.

Have you worked with this before? Is this question for a course or just your own interest?
 

Thread 'Non-orthogonal bases'

Suppose ,instead of the usual x,y coordinate system with an I basis vector along the x -axis and a corresponding j basis vector along the y-axis we instead have a different pair of basis vectors ,call them e and f along their respective axes. I have seen that this is an important subject in maths My question is what physical applications does such a model apply to? I am asking here because I have devoted quite a lot of time in the past to understanding convectors and the dual...
View full post »

Thread 'What Exactly is Dirac’s Delta Function? - Insight'

Insights auto threads is broken atm, so I'm manually creating these for new Insight articles. In Dirac’s Principles of Quantum Mechanics published in 1930 he introduced a “convenient notation” he referred to as a “delta function” which he treated as a continuum analog to the discrete Kronecker delta. The Kronecker delta is simply the indexed components of the identity operator in matrix algebra Source: https://www.physicsforums.com/insights/what-exactly-is-diracs-delta-function/ by...
View full post »

Similar threads

MHB Calculating probability that 3 events occur 1 after other
Replies
1
Views
2K
MHB Percentage problem - which is probably really simple
Replies
2
Views
2K
MHB Question: How do I calculate conditional probability in this scenario?
Replies
5
Views
3K
MHB What Is the Probability of Receiving Identical Pairs from Random Crates?
Replies
1
Views
2K
I Calculating Statistical Likelihood Knowing Standard Deviations
Replies
17
Views
3K
I What Does The Probability Density Function Tell You?
Replies
8
Views
3K
B The Probability of an Event
Replies
11
Views
2K
MHB Help with Probability, Roulette, and Population Statistics
Replies
3
Views
2K
What is the Probability of an Earthquake Occurring During Positive Tidal Stress?
Replies
8
Views
2K
I Proper understanding of p-value
Replies
5
Views
2K

Hot Threads

Recent Insights

Back
Top