Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[artis]

a) and b) were pending, and c) happened as a preventative measure of a) and b).

I think you got it. not to say that measure c was a good one from a humanistic perspective but it definitely was a good option from a military strategy point.
Actually Trump was correct when he recently made those remarks that from a strategy point this is the right time and the right place to grab. But again a country is not a single issue deal, strategy is one thing, real people and their wishes is another, often they don't go together.

I will say it again there were other avenues this is simply failed politics from all sides

PS. I bet Tibet would love to tell China what they really think of them, maybe NATO should let Tibet join? I am all for the people of Tibet and their different view as opposed to China's military atheism but sometimes you just can't have all those nice things because we live in a complicated and cruel world, instead of the best you chose the least evil.

But please let me say it once more, this is a intellectual (hopefully) discussion, don't mistake my arguments for my personal view, maybe then @PeroK you won't have to be sad about what I say.
I am not a dictator!

 

[phinds]

It was not implausible that there was a threat to Russia and Russia was not a threat.

SERIOUSLY ? I cannot imagine how you came to either side of that conclusion since it simply flies in the face of reality.

 

[PeroK]

a) and b) were pending, and c) happened as a preventative measure of a) and b).

Why did Ukraine want to join NATO? To protect itself from a Russian invasion? Why did Russia invade Ukraine? To stop it joining NATO!

The darkest, blackest Catch-22.

 

[fresh_42]

I "get" every idea, I live in a country where we voted for NATO, I did too.

I voted for a party with 'leave NATO' on its agenda. I simply didn't and don't want to be dragged into a war just because some morons voted a moron into office. We had one megalomaniac. That's enough.

 

[artis]

I voted for a party with 'leave NATO' on its agenda. I simply didn't and don't want to be dragged into a war just because some morons voted a moron into office. We had one megalomaniac. That's enough.

Well truth be told once your in NATO while in Europe (wherever that is) it's a wise thing to stay in NATO.
NATO is like the summit of Everest , not everybody gets there, not everybody should (arguably), but those who happen to be there should simply enjoy the view...

 

[fresh_42]

Well truth be told once your in NATO while in Europe (wherever that is) it's a wise thing to stay in NATO.
NATO is like the summit of Everest , not everybody gets there, not everybody should (arguably), but those who happen to be there should simply enjoy the view...

Until an unpredictable idiot comes to power. We had one. Thanks, but no thanks. Not again. I am more afraid of untrustworthy politicians in power than I am of any attack. Modern wars will (and ancient wars have been) fought on the economic frontline (cp. China), or quite new, on the internet.

 

[PeroK]

I voted for a party with 'leave NATO' on its agenda. I simply didn't and don't want to be dragged into a war just because some morons voted a moron into office. We had one megalomaniac. That's enough.

I can't understand your views on this. You started off complaining about appeasement, comparing NATO and the EU now to Munich 1938. Now, you tell us that you don't want any part in anyone else's war. You don't want to be part of a strategic alliance? That you have no stomach for a fight?

 

[artis]

Why did Ukraine want to join NATO? To protect itself from a Russian invasion? Why did Russia invade Ukraine? To stop it joining NATO!

The darkest, blackest Catch-22.

I see some parallels between Ukraine and China and the coronavirus. China (given it's tough security and police state) had the option to keep Covid inside, then only Chinese people would have suffered, but it seems given their extreme measures they did quite well, but instead they let it out and now it is what it is.

Global politics is just like that, you can chose either someone somewhere suffers or everybody suffers. US and Cuba before Castro was no different, many Latin American countries suffered because US had their interests there and so kept loyal puppet governments , essentially the same thing Russia had in Ukraine until 2014.
Am I the only one who sees the hypocrisy here? Yeah sure one could argue US had it much less and not as brutal but still.

This is not a to be or not to be issue, this is a how far do you go , issue.
Yes Ukraine could have just kept on being Ukraine now we risk running all of Europe into war, which is the better option here ?
Now if there is anyone here who would be ready to die for the sake of ideology and perfectionism I respect that, and I respect every Ukrainian soldier who puts himself in front of bullets for what he believes.
I'm just not that big of a believer and not that brave or having that strong of an ideology, but I'm honest.

This is exactly why we have good diplomats , good spies, and good politicians to avoid having to resort to fundamentalism and existential last minute issues and red buttons.

 

[Astronuc]

Germany, France, the EU? They have never been a threat to the USSR since the new world order post-WWII. The only "threat" is the US.

Certainly Germany, France, EU, US have not been military threats. None of those entities had militaristic intentions against Russia since the collapse of the USSR.

After the collapse of USSR, there was the Commonwealth of Independent States, and Russia probably thought it still had some control. Then the other republics pulled away.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States

Back in the 1990s, I worked on some projects with Eastern European utilities as they turned west and away from Russia. Russia was the dominant supplier in Eastern Europe, and slowly EU and US companies began chipping away at their business. The Russians were certainly not pleased. They didn't like having to compete in the global market.

In the late 1990s, I attended a conference in Eastern Europe, and a substantial portion of the audience were Russian scientists, engineers and some managers. I had good conversations with the Russian scientists and engineers, but the tone was very muted in the presence of the managers, who were ex-military and had no experience in nuclear technology, just connections in the government/military.

In the 2000s, the US and EU were supporting various Russian programs, and in some cases bringing scientists out of Russia. I'm sure the Russian government didn't appreciate that.

More recently, the US government has been helping the Ukrainian government and nuclear industry become more independent from Russia. For example,

01 September 2021 - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/US-Ukrainian-energy-partnership-foresees-five-new

22 November 2021 - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Westinghouse-signs-initial-contract-for-Ukrainian

05 January 2022 - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Ukraine-pushes-for-domestic-uranium-supply

13 January 2022 - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kotin-elaborates-Ukraine-s-AP1000-plans

I suppose now, Energoatom becomes Russian, assuming Putin takes complete control of Ukraine, or at least most of it.

Ukraine plans to invest as much as $1.3 billion in the development of its aviation sector between 2021 and 2030.
https://simpleflying.com/airbus-ukraine-new-airline/

Plans indefinitely suspended.

These are just a couple of examples.

 

[fresh_42]

I can't understand your views on this. You started off complaining about appeasement, comparing NATO and the EU now to Munich 1938. Now, you tell us that you don't want any part in anyone else's war. You don't want to be part of a strategic alliance? That you have no stomach for a fight?

I am with Pope Francis on this: War is the failure of politics. I had a different opinion until I saw how easy it is to get the commander in chief of the world's largest strike forces, and how little you must be qualified for that position. We have had our monster. No need for repetition. Build some nukes if necessary, but do not rely on you know whom. It is not completely excluded that there have been similar considerations by the Russians, but this is pure speculation I have to admit.

 

[artis]

Certainly Germany, France, EU, US have not been military threats. None of those entities had militaristic intentions against Russia since the collapse of the USSR.

After the collapse of USSR, there was the Commonwealth of Independent States, and Russia probably thought it still had some control. Then the other republics pulled away.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States

Back in the 1990s, I worked on some projects with Eastern European utilities as they turned west and away from Russia. Russia was the dominant supplier in Eastern Europe, and slowly EU and US companies began chipping away at their business. The Russians were certainly not pleased. They didn't like having to compete in the global market.

In the late 1990s, I attended a conference in Eastern Europe, and a substantial portion of the audience were Russian scientists, engineers and some managers. I had good conversations with the Russian scientists and engineers, but the tone was very muted in the presence of the managers, who were ex-military and had no experience in nuclear technology, just connections in the government/military.

In the 2000s, the US and EU were supporting various Russian programs, and in some cases bringing scientists out of Russia. I'm sure the Russian government didn't appreciate that.

More recently, the US government has been helping the Ukrainian government and nuclear industry become more independent from Russia. For example,

01 September 2021 - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/US-Ukrainian-energy-partnership-foresees-five-new

22 November 2021 - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Westinghouse-signs-initial-contract-for-Ukrainian

05 January 2022 - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Ukraine-pushes-for-domestic-uranium-supply

13 January 2022 - https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kotin-elaborates-Ukraine-s-AP1000-plans

I suppose now, Energoatom becomes Russian, assuming Putin takes complete control of Ukraine, or at least most of it.

Ukraine plans to invest as much as $1.3 billion in the development of its aviation sector between 2021 and 2030.
https://simpleflying.com/airbus-ukraine-new-airline/

Plans indefinitely suspended.

These are just a couple of examples.

Well it's sad, Ukraine could have went where France did , and have it's entire electricity supply almost nuclear.
Would have been a great story for the country that had the world's worst peace time nuclear accident.

All in all I don't think it was the manufacturing and energy sector that "broke the camels back", it was the politics the "knock knock, knocking on NATO's door"

 

[snorkack]

I see some parallels between Ukraine and China and the coronavirus. China (given it's tough security and police state) had the option to keep Covid inside, then only Chinese people would have suffered, but it seems given their extreme measures they did quite well, but instead they let it out and now it is what it is.

They did not have that option. They lost some time in Wuhan because they were surprised at just how bad it was, but once they realized, they did a reasonable and successful job clamping down the rest of China.
The rest of the world had a warning, but most of them did not have the means to respond like rest of China had. South Korea did a decent job in March 2020, but they were worn out, too.

 

[fresh_42]

They did not have that option. They lost some time in Wuhan because they were surprised at just how bad it was, but once they realized, they did a reasonable and successful job clamping down the rest of China.
The rest of the world had a warning, but most of them did not have the means to respond like rest of China had. South Korea did a decent job in March 2020, but they were worn out, too.

Patient zero in Germany was a Chinese woman weeks after Wuhan.

 

[artis]

I think I myself will refrain from further strategy discussions from various sides, it seems as much as we wish we cannot keep ourselves from becoming emotional, and I also don't want other members to form a wrong impression about me or my personal views.

I will continue on commenting live events if that is welcome, and giving some "inside" knowledge as I get lots of info from people I know or share connections with that are inside Ukraine now.

All in all this is the end of the 3rd day of war so far, it is hard to speculate as of now for the reasons of why this has been so but from what I can gather it seems that Ukrainians are showing A level resistance and have exceeded all expectations, they themselves are in shock of how they have managed to pull it off so far, given their extremely poor military technology and the fact that they are both outnumbered and outgunned.

This is either good or bad depending on how Putin will react, good if it prolongs the conflict and eventually gives Ukraine some leverage to negotiate with Russia on their own without NATO, bad if Putin becomes berzerk and throws all his military at them.

Belarus and it;s autocratic leader Alexander Lukashenko said that if Kremlin will ask he is ready to deploy his own military to help Russians, currently they are in Ukraine on their own, while Kadyrov Chechen "specnaz" elite fighters are roaming the country doing the "targeted killings"

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022...y-says-forces-deployed-ukraine-to-back-russia

 

[artis]

Let me throw in some interesting history bit.
Poland is now accepting Ukrainian refugees which is good, but about 100 years ago Poland itself fought a war with Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Ukrainian_War

According to a noted interwar Polish publicist, the Polish–Ukrainian War was the principal cause for the failure to establish a Ukrainian state in Kyiv in late 1918 and early 1919. During that critical time the Galician forces, large, well-disciplined and immune to Communist subversion, could have tilted the balance of power in favor of a Ukrainian state. Instead, it focused all of its resources on defending its Galician homeland. When the western Ukrainian forces transferred rast in the summer of 1919 after they had been overwhelmed by the Poles, the Russian forces had grown significantly, and the impact of the Galicians was no longer decisive

To translate this into common language. So basically the Poles fought the Ukrainians thereby weakening them, the weakened Ukrainian nationalists did not establish a sovereign state while in the meantime republics like the Baltic states did just that , therefore Ukraine was left as part of the Russian empire successor aka the USSR.
Because of this Ukraine is an easier target for Russia now as it can claim legally that Ukraine never existed before the USSR collapsed, which in a paper and law sense is true.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lviv

A beautiful border city of Ukraine close to the Polish border. Once was in the hands of Polish forces back in the war period. Now it's the "go to" refugee city for those that seek to flee Ukraine.

Ukrainian capital Kyiv is also beautiful , it has a lot of world heritage worth buildings which I hope will survive this rampage.

 

[fresh_42]

Ukraine was left as part of the Russian empire successor aka the USSR.

If you go back a little further, then Russia becomes a product of Ukrainians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus'

It is a bit like Serbia, Kosovo, and the Amselfeld (Kosovo Field), only much bigger.

 

[BillTre]

If you go back a littler further, then Russia becomes a product of Ukrainians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus'

Shows the limitations of these kinds of arguments.

 

[fresh_42]

Shows the limitations of these kinds of arguments.

Yes, but this heritage is what makes Russians think that Ukraine is part of their empire. It dates back to 882 AC, the origin of all of them in Kyiv. One has to know this, regardless of how far back it was.

 

[artis]

If you go back a little further, then Russia becomes a product of Ukrainians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus'

It is a bit like Serbia, Kosovo, and the Amselfeld (Kosovo Field), only much bigger.

And truth be told for Europe if one takes a large enough time period this argument fails everywhere, because some part in Europe has been enslaved and invaded by some other part of Europe or Scandinavia at some point in history, in fact sometimes many times over.
If I wanted to write down a list of all the wars and who fought who in Europe this thread would become similar to a server log file, nobody would read it, so please take my arguments with some background knowledge,

European history is the "quantum mechanics" of histories. We here exist in a wave function, peace is a probability that fluctuates with time, Russians have decided to put Ukraine in a box now and perform the Schrodinger cat experiment essentially.
Right now Ukraine is in a superposition of states but definitely not in a "super position"...

 

[fresh_42]

If I wanted to write down a list of all the wars and who fought who in Europe this thread would become similar to a server log file, nobody would read it, so please take my arguments with some background knowledge

Sure, but the Kievan Rus are not about an occupation or a war. It is nothing less than the foundation of what we now call Russia. And it began in Kyiv. This is why they call each other brothers and why Russia considers Ukraine as a part of it all. It is more than a historic date. It is their foundation.

 

[artis]

Sure, but the Kievan Rus are not about an occupation or a war. It is nothing less than the foundation of what we now call Russia. And it began in Kyiv. This is why they call each other brothers and why Russia considers Ukraine as a part of it all. It is more than a historic date. It is their foundation.

True , and as all of the Ukrainian arguments this too can be used both in favor of current Kremlin policy as well as against it, given it seems the "big brother" will do anything to stop the "little one",

That is why I said I will try to refrain from commenting policy issues and strategy, it's just a mess , and heck I thought Covid , it's origins were such before,
As the Russian saying goes "the farther into the forest the more trees"

 

[artis]

A Ukrainian citizen asks whether the Russian infantry men need a "ride" back to Moscow after their tank ran out of fuel for whatever reason.
When people that are so ethnically and genetically close wage war it becomes absurd because here you can see a civilian from a passenger car talking to an enemy armored division as if they are next door neighbors and drank together last friday, these same guys are expected to, in theory, kill one another the moment their tank gets fuel.

 

[PeroK]

Yes, but this heritage is what makes Russians think that Ukraine is part of their empire.

It looks like the Ukranians are making the Russians fight for everything they want to take. Maybe they don't want to be part of the Russian empire. It may end badly for Ukraine, but it's hardly the war of liberation that Putin and his apologists portray.

 

[artis]

It looks like the Ukranians are making the Russians fight for everything they want to take. Maybe they don't want to be part of the Russian empire. It may end badly for Ukraine, but it's hardly the war of liberation that Putin and his apologists portray.

I don't know how "deep" you are in terms of Ukrainian details but in any case it is well known that Ukrainians are divided and only the eastern parts as well as some percentage elsewhere wants to go to Russian side, the rest of Ukraine (I would speculate 50+%) want freedom from Russia.
Not sure whether there haven been polls lately on this issue but I can tell you from a "field" perspective that if there was a referendum Ukraine would vote at least 60% in favor of freedom and no Russian political authority (cultural yes) but not political or military.

It would be a "brexit" but with stronger percentage for those in favor,

 

[Jodo]

At the risk of being overly technical, I believe the us has no nuclear missiles in Europe already.

I believe US has approx 200 missiles there. Germany definitely has some

 

[fresh_42]

I believe US has approx 200 missiles there. Germany definitely has some

I'm not sure about the nuclear situation in Germany either. But anyway, this would be a question of hours. The US still runs military bases in Germany. E.g. the biggest US hospital outside the mainland US is in Germany and the corresponding base is a central node for the distribution of soldiers and material these days. They wouldn't even have to schedule a particular flight.

 

[Jodo]

A Ukrainian citizen asks whether the Russian infantry men need a "ride" back to Moscow after their tank ran out of fuel for whatever reason.
When people that are so ethnically and genetically close wage war it becomes absurd because here you can see a civilian from a passenger car talking to an enemy armored division as if they are next door neighbors and drank together last friday, these same guys are expected to, in theory, kill one another the moment their tank gets fuel.

A Ukrainian citizen asks whether the Russian infantry men need a "ride" back to Moscow after their tank ran out of fuel for whatever reason.
When people that are so ethnically and genetically close wage war it becomes absurd because here you can see a civilian from a passenger car talking to an enemy armored division as if they are next door neighbors and drank together last friday, these same guys are expected to, in theory, kill one another the moment their tank gets fuel.

The Russian soldiers sounded quite sincere when they replied " to Kyiv? F**k no!
I am wondering if the whole column ran out of fuel?
You are a sitting duck in a tank with no fuel...

 

[Office_Shredder]

I believe US has approx 200 missiles there. Germany definitely has some

Source? I think they have bombs, but bombs are not missiles. In particular, you can shoot down planes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing

After the Soviet Union collapsed, the nuclear weapon types shared within NATO were reduced to tactical nuclear bombs deployed by Dual-Capable Aircraft (DCA).[3]

I mean, I guess some countries have the technical capability of shooting down a missile but I bet they would rather go for a plane.

 

[fresh_42]

Source? I think they have bombs, but bombs are not missiles. In particular, you can shoot down planes.

Current news: Germany sends Ukraine 500 stinger.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik...nger-raketen-und-weitere-waffen-17836825.html

 

[Jarvis323]

This picture says a lot.