Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Klystron]

This is somewhat similar as with USA and Cuba, only Ukraine is much closer to Russia than Cuba is to US but we cannot say US did not try to overthrow the communists in Cuba, just unsuccessfully

Not sure what you meant by that, but the overthrow of Baptista was not of Soviet origins.

Correct. Depending on political persuasion, 1950's era American press regarded the Cuban revolutionaries as heroes after overthrowing brutal dictator Fulgencia Bautista. While being feted in the US following victory, Ernesto 'Che' Guevara and the Castro brothers surprised many erstwhile supporters by expressing essentially communist/Marxist ideas concerning governance and economics.

In particular they regarded the Church as protectors and enablers of fascist dictators such as Generalissimo Franco in Spain and strongmen throughout Latin America, keeping poor workers enslaved by ignorance and superstition. Religion and politics remain verboten topics on PF but I wished to clarify this issue following numerous references to Cuba in this thread.

Following Vatican II reforms circa1962, many believers embraced the revolutionary fervor to improve inherent societal inequalities while remaining vague concerning atheism, poverty and the need to separate church and state. This ability to simultaneously hold divergent views; e.g., 'Christian Marxists', remains a hallmark of religion not required by science.

 

[WWGD]

May be, but we're not singing Imagine here. Russia wants a buffer zone, and the question is, do we need to be pushing to put NATO troops in every single country in the region? Or would an agreement for their independence and peace be sufficient? Especially since we could always sign them up anyway if Russia doesn't keep to the agreement, and not even feel guilty about it. The worst that could happen is that Russia could invade the "buffer" countries while they're defenseless -- and that differs from the current situation how exactly?

I don't see any pushing. It is these countries themselves who asked to become part of Nato/EU. Why did they ask? Anyone force them/pressure them?

 

[fresh_42]

I don't see any pushing. It is these countries themselves who asked to become part of Nato/EU. Why did they ask? Anyone force them/pressure them?

Yep. Russia.

 

[WWGD]

Yep. Russia.

Ok, but we keep looping over this. Can we settle it for good?

 

[morrobay]

All these arguments about about Russia needing some kind of buffer region to protect itself from invasion from other countries is BS subterfuge to rationalize their (Putin's actually) expansionist dreams.

Says someone with a Western analytical viewpoint. While I agree here. This is about Putin's view. Whether or not he imagines that being surrounded by armed NATO countries is a kinetic threat, for sure it is a problem for someone who has never gotten over the dismantling of the USSR.

 

[WWGD]

Says someone with a Western analytical viewpoint. While I agree here. This is about Putin's view. Whether or not he imagines that being surrounded by armed NATO countries is a kinetic threat, for sure it is a problem for someone who has never gotten over the dismantling of the USSR.View attachment 297650

Good deal. We were talking anout the band " 'The Eagles' a while back, and I gaffed in claiming their only hit was ' Hotel California '. You just reminded me of another Eagles song, devoted to Putin : " Get Over It".
Edit: Enough of " Trying to Understand Him". He chose to become a world leader, has the power to destroy the world. Have him grow up , go to therapy or drop out and let an adult become president.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Current news: Germany sends Ukraine 500 stinger.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik...nger-raketen-und-weitere-waffen-17836825.html

We were definitely only talking about nuclear weapons when I said there were only bombs lol.

 

[DennisN]

What was the source of the crisis, to recall? In 2013, the negotiations were for EU association treaty. EU was pressuring Ukraine for a lot of concessions in Ukraine domestic politics as a price for EU associations. While Russia pressured Ukraine to pick Russia over Ukraine. In November 2013, Yanukovych picked the Russian terms... and Euromaidan followed. In three months, Yanukovych was overthrown by domestic violent uprising, inside his term... Russia perceives the action of EU in 2013...2014 as inciting internal subversion. And acts threatened.

I don't know if somebody else has mentioned this in this thread before, but one of Russias ambitions has been to establish a Eurasian counterpart to EU:

Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU):

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is an economic union of post-Soviet states located in Eastern Europe, Western Asia and Central Asia. The Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union was signed on 29 May 2014 by the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and came into force on 1 January 2015. Treaties aiming for Armenia's and Kyrgyzstan's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union were signed on 9 October and 23 December 2014, respectively. Armenia's accession treaty came into force on 2 January 2015. Kyrgyzstan's accession treaty came into effect on 6 August 2015. Kyrgyzstan participated in the EAEU from the day of its establishment as an acceding state.

Strangely enough, I haven't heard this mentioned at all in the news lately.

Quote from Wikipedia - Eurasian Economic Community (2000–2014) :

A Treaty on a Single Economic Space by Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine was signed in 2003 and ratified in 2004, but the process was stalled after the Orange revolution [in Ukraine].

(my boldings)

 

[geordief]

I am wondering how long the Ukranians can keep using the internet?

Can the Russo- Soviets not take down that infrastructure quite easily? ( not hoping to give them advice on how to do it )

 

[Oldman too]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-swift/index.html

 

[Fervent Freyja]

I am wondering how long the Ukranians can keep using the internet?

Can the Russo- Soviets not take down that infrastructure quite easily? ( not hoping to give them advice on how to do it )

Elon Musk has just activated Starlink Service for all of Ukraine and is activating more terminals.

 

[geordief]

Elon Musk has just activated Starlink Service for all of Ukraine and is activating more terminals.

So that is secure ?
It seems to me a big deal if so.

 

[Oldman too]

So that is secure ?
It seems to me a big deal if so.

All I could find is this somewhat relevant "blog", not sure of accuracy but it is an interesting conversation.
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archi...space-agency-launches-hackable-satellite.html

"Secure"... that's a loaded title these days.

 

[geordief]

All I could find is this somewhat relevant "blog", not sure of accuracy but it is an interesting conversation.
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archi...space-agency-launches-hackable-satellite.html

"Secure"... that's a loaded title these days.

Yes ,I didn't mean "was it hackable".

I was just asking if it could be blocked.Would the users be secure in the ability to keep using the service or could this invading force cut it off at source somehow?

 

[Oldman too]

Yes ,I didn't mean "was it hackable".

I was just asking if it could be blocked.Would the users be secure in the ability to keep using the service or could this invading force cut it off at source somehow?

First you must realize, I'm no authority on this, but basically parroting the bot, "I found this on the web". Seriously though, I believe with a little (or a lot, as in Solar Winds) work, any code written can be "hacked".

The piece mentioned https://www.esa.int/Applications/Te...pplications/Reprogrammable_satellite_launched does say,
"The satellite can detect and characterize any rogue emissions, enabling it to respond dynamically to accidental interference or intentional jamming"
This is a good sign.

Important point, in the interest of "Relevance to thread".
The article from ESA isn't talking about Starlink birds but another system.

 

[artis]

Well , Ukrainians would need to have the radio satellite dish in order to use Elon's starlink so not sure how this benefits them.
If Elon dropped them weapons , fuel and ammunition from the sky now that would be a different topic.

But in all honesty internet and cell phones are and have already changed this war , first of all the amount of information getting out of Ukraine is huge. Ukrainians have more phones and computers and cameras than Iraqi's or Afghans combined + they have a rather OK internet infrastructure so a lot of information is escaping, many of them livestream from Facebook while bombs are dropping in the background, that is something new in the history of the world.

Also their guerilla type army men use this to tag Russian troop locations much like one would tag a police car with a radar gun on a highway in Waze.

PS. Personally I think using Facebook to communicate with other soldiers about enemy troops and safe hideouts is the only meaningful use of Facebook...
Finally Zuckeberg's media invention has some positive aspect to it,

 

[morrobay]

Chechens - Bad News https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSeTurNpu/.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

So that is secure ?
It seems to me a big deal if so.

We will see. Numerous companies are offering free VPN in addition to the free Starlink Service.

International hackers are winning out right now and committed to helping Ukraine. Russian TV channels are being replaced by real news flashes and disruptions. I suspect that photos of prisoners of war will be placed on there soon as well. Radio channels are being logged and disrupting lines of communication with the Ukrainian National Anthem. Of course, all Russian government websites are constantly being shot down. It seems very disorganized so far, with some groups hacking cameras near the borders of Russia and it’s a free for all.

They will have the essentials to get through this. Generators and solar energy options can be delivered.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

PS. Personally I think using Facebook to communicate with other soldiers about enemy troops and safe hideouts is the only meaningful use of Facebook...
Finally Zuckeberg's media invention has some positive aspect to it,

Facebook has issued a warning that all EU users may lose access to their services soon, on account of threats from Russia today. Apple may be releasing more measures in the coming days. Google is scrambling to see how they can help.

Videos of captured Russian soldiers are being uploaded on most social media platforms. This is the most grotesque that I’ve encountered thus far- this one should have not been uploaded in this manner. There are also many fakes being planted. A hotline is being setup so that families can identify and arrange a pick up of the bodies of near 3000 Russian soldiers that have been killed. The compassion that Ukrainians are showing their enemy is astounding and humbling.

 

[artis]

Let me give some numbers here for food of thought (the accuracy of the current numbers is still debatable but taken into context of all else should be a indication)

So let's compare the current war in simple terms to the Soviet- Afghan war from 1979-1989.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Afghan_War

Arguably Afghanistan was a harder target (given subsequent military powers have failed there with much larger investment both in terms of money, weapons, and count of soldiers)
Soviets lost about 15 000 soldiers there while the Mujahideen lost about 56 000, sure enough there were other losses and the war in length was about 10 years total but let's not focus on the nuances for now.

So keep in mind the 15 000 figure of loss from the Soviet side and the 56 000 from Afghan,

If we are to believe the numbers coming out of Ukraine now after only 4 days of war (4 days !)
then
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/russia-ukraine-invasion-casualties-death-toll

Ukrainian officials said earlier that more than 3,500 Russian soldiers have been killed.

I hear similar numbers locally coming from Ukraine.
It also seems the advancement to capture Kyiv and other major cities has not yet resulted in the capturing of those cities , this makes me think, that either

1) The Russian army since the end of the USSR has forgotten from which end of the rifle the bullet comes out...
2) Ukrainians are overestimating by orders of magnitude (lying) to keep their spirits up
3) Russians so far have sent their youngest and weakest soldiers to purely use them as "meat" to weaken the Ukrainian forces (there is some evidence for that, most of the captured soldiers in the videos are very young, 18-20 years) It wouldn't be the first time Russia uses such a tactic in war.
4) Ukrainians for some reason are better equipped, and readier than Afghans were (in theory and in statistics this should be the case) but then it is hard to explain why US had such a hard time in Afghanistan and Iraq, because I would find it hard to believe that US would lose to Ukraine in a war, but it seems Ukraine is tougher than Iraq and Afghanistan , anyway things don't make much sense the way I see them now.
5) Some form and mix of the above

Ultimately we will have to see but I have a hard time believing this is all Putin has given he has prepared for years and calculated his options. If anything failure for him is his own backyard is not an option that we all know and he does best.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

Chechens - Bad News https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSeTurNpu/.

They’ll be quaking in their Prada boots.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

3) Russians so far have sent their youngest and weakest soldiers to purely use them as "meat" to weaken the Ukrainian forces (there is some evidence for that, most of the captured soldiers in the videos are very young, 18-20 years) It wouldn't be the first time Russia uses such a tactic in war.

This. The initial plan seemed to try and clear the way for a takeover in Kyiv. They experienced more resistance than expected, but that won’t make a difference.

 

[artis]

Some recent development in video
Before I post the US based sources, here is a Russian youtuber talking about what is said inside Russia unofficially as to why there is such resistance being encountered, english subtitles are available , you can watch,
My short summary of what is said
1) Soldiers given old equipment and young inexperienced soldiers are sent
2) Soldiers having very little incentive and motivation to fight fellow Ukrainians
3)Ukrainians showing fierce resistance
4) There is a curfew In Ukrainian cities and Kyiv at night in order for the fighters to be able to better identify enemy soldiers and insurrectionists dressed in camouflage

 

[artis]

All in all the internet is full of fake news, this morning there were news circulated that the worlds largest natural gas company "Gazprom" financial director committed suicide, but as it turned out, a much lower ranking man committed suicide for unknown reasons.
Thereby I keep the info I'm reading and getting to myself largely because I cannot verify the authenticity for most of it. Conflicting anecdotal accounts from all sides.

But the overall general trend seems to be clear and that is
1) Ukraine is resisting much harder than anyone anticipated (both west and east)
2) Kremlin went for a quick strike but instead of a 1st round "knockout" this will surely be a full 12 round fight
3) Propaganda from both sides , I suspect Ukrainians are overestimating Russian death toll while Kremlin is calling all Ukrainians "fascists" and insurrectionists.
4) Russian state TV seems to have changed the narrative from a Queen "we will rock you" and Abba "The winner takes it all" to a more toned down version of Queen "who wants to live forever" and "the show must go on"A video has surfaced of a Ukrainian team detaining a Russian tank operator and taking him back to Russia by car. Again no one can confirm the authenticity of this, but knowing Ukrainians personally I am certain they are capable of such action and therefore I present this video to you to keep up the spirits, They even make him say "Glory to Ukraine" and "Glory to heroes"
The latter slogan is a popular Russian slogan used once by the Red army

 

[artis]

Ukrainian soldiers attack and seize a Russian military patrol of 4 vehicles in Kharkiv


And here is a joke apparently made by pro Ukrainian "internet fighters", seems like Ukraine is learning from Russia, I hear Ukrainian bloggers and activists waging "internet war" against Kremlin rhetoric, lately my Facebook feed is full of various memes and photos from battlefield with subtitles added to give glory to Ukrainian soldiers

 

[artis]

This morning 27th February around 10:00 ECT, Ukrainian president Zelensky refused an invitation from Kremlin and Belarus to attend a meeting on Belarusian soil to negotiate. It is unclear as of now what exactly the involved parties want to "negotiate" given Russian bombs are falling on Ukraine in the meantime but such an invitation seems to have happened.
Zelensky said he won't attend Belarus especially because they gave their land and support for invasionMy own personal take on this is such that it is possible Kremlin is facing criticism both at home as well as internationally and they might be seeking a potential "deal" to save their skin from too much blowback and are probably seeking Ukraine to officially declare the separatist regions as well as Crimea as Russian land while Russia would supposedly stop the war and pull back their troops to concede Ukrainian freedom which they currently attack.

Or they want to lure him out of Kyiv and simply murder him , one or the other





https://www.france24.com/en/video/2...th-ukraine-in-belarus-armen-georgian-comments

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...ts-belarus-as-location-for-talks-with-russia/

 

[DennisN]

Or they want to lure him out of Kyiv and simply murder him

That was my first thought when I read about the Russia suggestion for a peace talk in Belarus.

 

[artis]

Let me give some fighting insights, videos as of recently from the ground.
Russians are deploying TOS-1 systems ,a thermobaric missile launcher mounted on a T72 battle tank
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1

Meanwhile in this link you can see Ukrainian forces fighting fierce street battles and seizing some Russian weaponry and vehicles
https://www.santa.lv/raksts/aktuali/harkova-okupanti-pamet-armijas-tehniku-un-metas-begt-48009/

Ukraine seems to get some shipments of help from European allies and NATO, I suppose these shipments are unofficial as NATO would probably wish to stay neutral so far


Ukrainian soldiers killed a bunch of Russian troops near Kyiv, video shows them seizing weapons and even army boots from a dead Russian soldier, can't blame em it's cold here still and the dead soldier won't need them anyway
Arguably Russia might also be interested in Ukrainian fossil fuel reserves and proximity to Europe
Here is a article about how Ukraine once sought to use their own resources
https://www.reuters.com/article/shell-chevron-ukraine-idUSL5E8GBAE020120511

Ukraine has Europe’s third-largest shale gas reserves at 42 trillion cubic feet (1.2 trillion cubic metres), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, behind France and Norway.

Some unconfirmed reports from within Russia that some "professional army" soldiers , the ones that get paid , have refused to go to fight in Ukraine.
But I cannot verify this information just that it comes from multiple Russian sources.

 

[artis]

Seems like the western help to Uukraine even as small as it was and much of it late is still doing it's job in the hands of well organized and most importantly very fanatic fighters.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-troops-prepare-threat-Russian-invasion.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...tary-equipment-ukraine-government-2022-02-18/

The US made Javelins seem to already come in handy for the Ukrainians
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...itary-equipment-munitions-ukraine-2022-01-25/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-from-turkey-than-disclosed-and-angers-russia

 

[Fervent Freyja]

That was my first thought when I read about the Russia suggestion for a peace talk in Belarus.

The rationale that we are witnessing across the board is disturbing. The UN Security Council actually allowed a charged party to vote in their own trial, which halted further action. That’s fine and dandy, because this allowance can be used again if another permanent party is brought into question in the future. Tit for tat.

Lukashenko is evidently a liar. On the 17th he was filmed scolding an American reporter for questioning the “military exercises” going on. He told him that we’ve wasted a billion dollars for nothing… Told him that he wasn’t in Canada or Mexico and essentially told him to mind his own business. Now, he will lose a billion plus on account of his greed and cowardice. There’s a woman trying to run a coup on him at the moment.