Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[DennisN]

Hope you can fight back like the Finns did, though without losing your variant of Karelia et al.

Neither I nor the Swedish military (according to Swedish news) sees an immediate Russian threat against Sweden (but things can of course change over the years).

Nevertheless: an aggressive Russia is in my opinion a threat to the security of Europe.
And a threat to the security of Europe is a threat to the world, due to the various interconnections (economical and military (NATO)).

In Sweden the military recently took some defensive actions due to the current situation, and I suspect more of that is to come.

If you ask me, my concerns in the near future apart from Ukraine are the countries Latvia and Lithuania, which both are NATO members, see this map:

There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, and if Russia would try to create a land corridor (my red marking in the map) between Russia and Kaliningrad, Latvia and Lithuania are in the way.

In short: I sincerely hope this conflict does not spread, as it would be very dangerous.

 

[WWGD]

I heard a very interesting input on this in an interview on CNN or MSNBC yesterday which made some sense to me (regretfully I don't have a source for it at the moment, but I think I remembered who said it, so I will try to find a link on the net and post it later*).

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russias action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if Russia was a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

Nevertheless, Putins recent speech about historical grievances in general (with dubious historical accuracy) was worrying to hear.

* Update: I've made an initial search but could not find anything. If I remember correctly the reasoning came from a female author of history books (Ann

Kind of rich. I don't think anyone group really has the moral high ground overall without gross cherry-picking and "cherry-forgetting"

 

[russ_watters]

Multiple media outlets are reporting a full-fledged invasion, including direct attacks on Kyiv and other major cities:
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-23-22/index.html

Cute nugget:

"The Russian Armed Forces are not launching any missile or artillery strikes on the cities of Ukraine. High-precision weapons destroy military infrastructure: military airfields, aviation, air defense facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," the statement read. "The civilian population is not at risk."

 

[256bits]

So they are going to take the whole thing, and change the government to pro Russia.
Which would gives Russia a southern route to the sea, which they surely lack, being hemmed in presently to say the least to access to international waters.

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...e-strikes-confirmed-as-russia-invades-ukraine

How is the confrontation seen in Russia?

Russian state media are portraying Moscow as coming to the rescue of war-torn areas of eastern Ukraine that are tormented by Ukraine’s aggression.

TV presenters are professing the end of suffering for the residents of the breakaway regions.

“You paid with your blood for these eight years of torment and anticipation,” anchor Olga Skabeyeva said during a popular political talk show Tuesday (local time). “Russia will now be defending Donbas.”

Channel One struck a more festive tone, with its correspondent in Donetsk asserting that local residents “say it is the best news over the past years of war.”

“Now they have confidence in the future and that the years-long war will finally come to an end,” she said.

Whether ordinary Russians are buying it is another question.

 

[Rive]

Hard to say what's the aim, but they definitely try to finish it before the West can catch up. I think it's likely that East-Ukraine will be given up and Ukraine will try to keep the west only, with saving as many of their forces as they can, while waiting for the pressure from the West to take effect.

Retrospective: Russian peacekeeping in Belarus, oh my All the events from the last few weeks were about this.

 

[256bits]

WITW...? Only a probing attack? Putin's chess game opening I guess, but he is toying with thousands of lives. I'm frustrated with the lack of a stone wall defense by NATO and the US, to be honest...

Ukraine is not a NATO member, and the sphere of influence for the US in that region is not that great.
Even the EEU response seemed to lack lustre leading up.
Wagging fingers and a lot of frowning talking heads certainly did not have much of an effect,

 

[strangerep]

There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, and if Russia would try to create a land corridor (my red marking in the map) between Russia and Kaliningrad, Latvia and Lithuania are in the way.

Latvia and Lithuania are both in NATO, last time I checked.

So after Russia finishes annexing Ukraine, then (presumably) Moldovia which is also not in NATO, it would have to take on a NATO country or (so-called?) neutral Finland to expand further west.

 

[WWGD]

Latvia and Lithuania are both in NATO, last time I checked.

So after Russia finishes annexing Ukraine, then (presumably) Moldovia which is also not in NATO, it would have to take on a NATO country or (so-called?) neutral Finland to expand further west.

And Finns still have WW2 memories fresh, with a high conscription rate; mandatory service , mostly as a reaction to their war with Russia.

 

[StevieTNZ]

So after Russia finishes annexing Ukraine...

Which is against international law.

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/aotearoa-new-zealand-condemns-advance-russian-military-ukraine

 

[strangerep]

[Russia annexing Ukraine]... Which is against international law.

...which is enforced by... the UN Security Council? Over which both Russia and China have veto power? Such international "law" is a joke.

 

[Jarvis323]

So far this is the best coverage I have found. Any better live news sources?

 

[PeroK]

WITW...? Only a probing attack? Putin's chess game opening I guess, but he is toying with thousands of lives.

You mean hundreds of millions of lives. This is war in Europe.

 

[fresh_42]

There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, and if Russia would try to create a land corridor (my red marking in the map) between Russia and Kaliningrad, Latvia and Lithuania are in the way.

Plus: Putin could follow the same narrative, protecting Russian minorities in all three countries.

 

[fresh_42]

Latvia and Lithuania are both in NATO, last time I checked.

So? Again: Putin is following exactly Hitler's textbook from 1938. And he grew up in a world where he developed the same mindset (Cold War, KGB).

The Munich Agreement of October 1938 forced the government of the Czech Republic to cede the Sudetenland to Germany.

Although France and Great Britain were once again able to avoid an impending military confrontation with their appeasement policy, they lost a great deal of respect and trust among the countries of Eastern Europe because of the abandonment of their ally Czechoslovakia.

Who will bet that he won't count on exactly the same mechanism: the west won't risk a world war for the Balticum?

 

[Mike S.]

There is potential for the war to spread if NATO acts in the most reasonable way.

See Wikipedia or any other source: Ukraine received substantial territory in 1939 from Poland. So far, Poland has been unable to reclaim this land, but if Ukraine is about to be overrun by Russian troops, it should make very solid sense for them to cede the land back to Poland to be defended by NATO, in exchange for guarantees that their people (especially the ones allegedly on hit lists, or facing discrimination based on LGBT status) will always have sanctuary there.

Whether the Russians acknowledge that new NATO territory is another question, but you have to draw the line somewhere.

 

[Rive]

Bringing up historical data as basis of any kind of border revision is a very sensitive topic and would not be a good precedent. Once it starts you better think about doubling or tripling the land available in Europe, and that still might not be able to cover the sum of the various 'our biggest' maps.

 

[Borek]

Refugees are already pouring into Poland. There is a huge group of Ukrainians (probably around 1.3 million, Poland has around 38 millions population) working here (kinda like Mexicans in USA, although they are mostly legal). So for them not only Poland is a first country outside that is not under a direct Russian influence, but also a country where they already have friends and contacts.

 

[fresh_42]

Bringing up historical data as basis of any kind of border revision is a very sensitive topic and would not be a good precedent. Once it starts you better think about doubling or tripling the land available in Europe, and that still might not be able to cover the sum of the various 'our biggest' maps.

Yes! Back to the German borders of 1236!

 

[Mike S.]

Bringing up historical data as basis of any kind of border revision is a very sensitive topic and would not be a good precedent. Once it starts you better think about doubling or tripling the land available in Europe, and that still might not be able to cover the sum of the various 'our biggest' maps.

Isn't that what Putin just did in his speech?

 

[Rive]

Isn't that what Putin just did in his speech?

And you have just went with his lead

 

[geordief]

Refugees are already pouring into Poland. There is a huge group of Ukrainians (probable around 1.3 million, Poland has around 38 millions population) working here (kinda like Mexicans in USA, although they are mostly legal). So for them not only Poland is a first country outside that is not under a direct Russian influence, but also a country where they already have friends and contacts.

Will a refugee exodus allow Russia to gerrymander the country to get a result in an "election" they can live with on an interim basis?

 

[fresh_42]

Will a refugee exodus allow Russia to gerrymander the country to get a result in an "election" they can live with on an interim basis?

No, but this is irrelevant. He already called the current leaders Nazis planning a genocide. He will simply announce a governor of his choice. Why should he take the risk of an election? And even if, he is a certified professional to get the desired result.

 

[rsk]

I am just very shocked by what has happened today.

I've been following the news, I've had some sympathy for the Russian position re the separatist regions. and I expected nothing more than a military intervention in those areas.

Is Putin gambling that nato won't intervene and he can take back Ukraine with little fuss?
Is today just a kind of shock and awe to be followed by a 'withdrawal' to the disputed separatist areas with the hope that 'the west' will now settle for that as a compromise?
Or is he genuinely pushing for all out war?

Disgusted at Boris Johnson's speech today when he could barely keep the smirk off his face. It's a time for serious diplomacy.

 

[rsk]

There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, and if Russia would try to create a land corridor (my red marking in the map) between Russia and Kaliningrad, Latvia and Lithuania are in the way.

I have been reading about kaliningrad today, I was looking at maps of Ukraine and eastern europe and noticed it, I had no idea there was a bit of Russia there.

 

[Keith_McClary]

Our Alberta Premier's first thought was that the world should boycott Russian oil and gas. He didn't explicitly say "... buy ours instead".

 

[phinds]

No, but this is irrelevant. He already called the current leaders Nazis planning a genocide. He will simply announce a governor of his choice. Why should he take the risk of an election? And even if, he is a certified professional to get the desired result.

 

[LCSphysicist]

We are living history right now.

 

[berkeman]

An off-topic tangent has been deleted.

Please keep it professional folks...

 

[russ_watters]

So?

There is deterrence value in NATO, if we fulfill our treaty obligations. Right now Putin is taking over a non-NATO country, with assurances from us that we won't intervene. And really, we can't now because we would be attacking Russia if we did. If he attacks a NATO country with US/German/etc troops in it, he's directly starting a war against us. That's a much bigger deal, and we successfully avoided war with the USSR for 40 years (and defeated it) this way.

Of course, we could have chosen to protect Ukraine in the same way but chose not to.

Why should he take the risk of an election?

Elections/votes don't carry risks for Putin.

 

[russ_watters]

Is Putin gambling that nato won't intervene and he can take back Ukraine with little fuss?

I don't see the gamble. We've told him we won't intervene.

 

[DennisN]

As a sidenote I personally suspect that the recent development will increase the support for a future NATO membership among the Swedish and Finnish population.

This discussion has already started now in Sweden and Finland.

The leader of one of the parties in Sweden has voiced the opinion:
"Lööf: Sweden should join Nato now" (SVT) (my title translation, the article is in Swedish only)

Our current Swedish prime minister is however careful with her words and says that "not being in an alliance has served us well" and "in this moment it is not wise to do anything" (she means with regards to a membership in Nato). (source: Expressen, a Swedish newspaper, in Swedish only)

 

[DennisN]

Plus: Putin could follow the same narrative, protecting Russian minorities in all three countries.

Yes, I agree completely.

 

[PeroK]

I don't see the gamble. We've told him we won't intervene.

It's still a gamble as Russia has things at stake that it could lose. Europe is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas. We have a massive incentive now (even if we did not before) to try to become independent of Russia for our energy. And, for example, many of Putin's wealthy supporters have large property portfolios in London. He is gambling that the EU will not do anything to hurt its own economic interests and that if we retaliate in any way (through sanctions etc.) that his supporters and, more widely, the Russian people will blame Europe and the US and not him. That is a gamble.

 

[berkeman]

Wow, who saw this coming?

Russian riot police tell protesters to disperse in Moscow​

From CNN's Anna Chernova and Nic Robertson

Russian riot police are urging protesters to leave Pushkinskaya Square in Moscow, saying over loudspeakers that the “[protest] action is unauthorized.”
CNN’s Nic Robertson and team on the ground have witnessed people being detained by police. Some are carrying signs with messages, including multiple signs saying “no to war.”
Russian authorities on Thursday warned citizens that participating in anti-war protests could lead to prosecution and criminal charges.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-24-22-intl/index.html

 

[gleem]

Continuing on @PeroK post. There was an CNN article stating that the West will have to hurt themselves in helping the Ukranians by at least accepting higher energy costs. We will have to put our money where our mouths are. The West has more to loose than Russia. The West"s GDP is well over $40T vs Russians $1.7T. However the West has grown accustom to the comforts of good economies. The question is how long will we tolerate the forthcoming sacrifices.

Pehaps one of the results of this conflict that could be the biggest factor is the number Russian casulties. Putin is expecting a swift take-over but if it drags on too long the casulties will rise. The Russian people might accept the sanctions for some time but not too many casulties; they still remember Afghanistan.

 

[fresh_42]

There is deterrence value in NATO, if we fulfill our treaty obligations. Right now Putin is taking over a non-NATO country, with assurances from us that we won't intervene.

Theoretically. But what if the balance sheet says Balticum or WWIII?

Please read my links at the beginning of the thread. I hope it isn't completely comparable, however, I wouldn't rule it out.

 

[russ_watters]

It's still a gamble as Russia has things at stake that it could lose. Europe is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas. We have a massive incentive now (even if we did not before) to try to become independent of Russia for our energy.

True/fair enough. To some extent Putin must have known there would be sanctions, so there would have been a pre-calculated cost - but an uncertain one.

But I think what I was responding to was about the military gamble/lack thereof.

 

[fresh_42]

China is sitting in Bejing smiling! They are Putin's emergency exit on whatever sanctions from the West might be, and they are watching it, thinking: If he can do this with Ukraine, why we couldn't do it with Taiwan?

I really, really hate dictatorships, of any color.

 

[fresh_42]

At the beginning of February 2022, Deutsche Welle [German worldwide radio station] was banned from broadcasting in Russia by the Russian Foreign Ministry; in addition, journalists' accreditations were revoked.

And why is CNN live behind German news translated on TV?

 

[PeroK]

China is sitting in Bejing smiling!

I'm not so sure. China is dependent on the Europe and the US. In many ways, the last thing they want is people in the West to get a conscience and start questioning who we do business with. Democracies are fickle and if we saw China as Russia's ally and every second thing we look at is "made in China" then you never know.

Also, Putin made a fairly obvious threat of nuclear war today ("something the world has never seen") if anyone interferes with his plans. China's strategy is ecomomic dominance, not a nuclear stand-off with the West.

 

[StevieTNZ]

The sanctions aren't doing anything to stop this continuing... what Ukraine needs to do is attack Moscow. So far 40 people have lost their lives and if I was President of Ukraine I would be launching missiles into Russia to teach them a lesson.

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...r-sanctions-as-russia-moves-in-across-ukraine

 

[PeroK]

PS I should say I'm not particularly optimistic, but the BBC News Correspondent in Moscow said what I'm hoping: that Putin has been in power for so long that he thinks he's invincible. He simply arrests anyone who protests again him. But, by precipitating a war he may have made for him a fatal mistake.

 

[DennisN]

This discussion has already started now in Sweden and Finland.

The leader of one of the parties in Sweden has voiced the opinion:
"Lööf: Sweden should join Nato now" (SVT) (my title translation, the article is in Swedish only)

Our current Swedish prime minister is however careful with her words and says that "not being in an alliance has served us well" and "in this moment it is not wise to do anything" (she means with regards to a membership in Nato). (source: Expressen, a Swedish newspaper, in Swedish only)

Update:

I heard earlier today one of the most famous journalists/commentators on Swedish national TV say that the current opinion of the Swedish people about NATO membership is ca:

• 1/3 wants Sweden to join NATO
• 1/3 wants Sweden to stay out of NATO
• 1/3 is undecided

Furthermore, on the paper we are not NATO members but we have had very close defensive cooperations with NATO and the US since a long time now. It is no secret that Sweden is heavily leaning towards the West at heart.

And I am certain that the current development regarding Russia and Ukraine will only strengthen this.

 

[fresh_42]

Update:

I heard earlier today one of the most famous journalists/commentators on Swedish national TV say that the current opinion of the Swedish people about NATO membership is ca:

• 1/3 wants Sweden to join NATO
• 1/3 wants Sweden to stay out of NATO
• 1/3 is undecided

Furthermore, on the paper we are not NATO members but we have had very close defensive cooperations with NATO and the US since a long time now. It is no secret that Sweden is heavily leaning towards the West at heart.

And I am certain that the current development regarding Russia and Ukraine will only strengthen this.

I'm not afraid of Sweden but of the Baltic countries. You cannot reason with a person who suffers F60.0.

And Berlin. I mean, as of 2020 there are 26,330 Russians in Berlin.

 

[DennisN]

I'm not afraid of Sweden but of the Baltic countries.

Same here. I just wanted to share the info so people here know what the position of Sweden is.

 

[Jarvis323]

I've read China is staunchly against violation of state sovereignty in principle. So Russia's fueling of the separatists in East Ukraine, declaration of their independence, and now invasion, are all behaviors they condemn implicitly, in principle at least. But they have strategic interests depending on a good relationship with Russia. So apparently they are in an awkward position geopolitically. Note, they view Taiwan as part of China already.

In terms of Russia's invasion emboldening them to possibly invade Taiwan. I'm not sure it should have that effect, because it is unlikely for Russia to have a net benefit from this. The economic effects, diplomatic effects, deaths, etc. will more likely be a sobering example of how nobody will benefit from that kind of aggression. At least that's my guess, but I may be totally wrong.

 

[phinds]

Biden just gave an address to the nation in which he threw out a bunch of kumbsya stuff about how the allies are united on sanctions and then in an answer in the Q&A he specifically said the the allies are NOT united because the most lethal sanction of all, expulsion of Russian banks from Swift, was NOT being done because the Europeans are not on board with it.

We're still being wimps and Putin's got to be loving it.

 

[fresh_42]

We're still being wimps and Putin's got to be loving it.

It is easy to demand from the Europeans against Russia what the US isn't willing to do against China. Things are more complicated than black and white. And, of course, do Europeans have tight relationships with Russia.

 

[fresh_42]

Wow, who saw this coming?

Russian riot police tell protesters to disperse in Moscow​

1,300 < arrests and counting.

Edit: 1,700+ now (1 a.m. in Moscow)