Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[gleem]

What particularly worries me is that I expect that Russia has a strategy of fomenting discord in the US which of course we are ripe for.

 

[berkeman]

Thread closed briefly for a Mentor discussion...

 

[berkeman]

Thread re-opened; thank you all for your patience.

So far this thread is doing well and avoiding the PF prohibition against political discussions. That prohibition is meant mainly to prevent arguments between different sides of 50-50 issues (conservative-liberal, democrat-republican, etc.), which will generally not be productive here.

But this thread is mainly about the growing potential for a dangerous military conflict in the Ukraine, with many possible outcomes and bad consequences (especially for the people of the Ukraine).

If there are side discussions that occur in this thread that are more political in nature, those may be deleted or moved to a separate thread. Thanks for you cooperation on this point, and here's hoping that there will not be a large unnecessary loss of life in the Ukraine.

 

[Keith_McClary]

One of my personal theories is that the separatists in the contested regions really are the loose cannons they appear to be (constantly trying to stir up a conflict by shooting at their neighbors and themselves)

 

[hutchphd]

Here's the question that keeps recurring in my head:

Are we safer because Ukraine ceded its Nuclear stockpile?

Sadly I think the answer to this may be no. I still find that answer shocking. But how crazy is crazy?

As a moral issue it seems pretty clear that the west has already vacated the moral high ground, perhaps permanently.

 

[phinds]

As a moral issue it seems pretty clear that the west has already vacated the moral high ground, perhaps permanently.

Although I agree /w you I suggest we not follow that line of discussion since it will inevitably lead to arguments since it is inextricably tied to politics.

 

[DennisN]

I worry too, mostly because it is currently not apparent why Putin is doing this so its not clear when he will stop.

I heard a very interesting input on this in an interview on CNN or MSNBC yesterday which made some sense to me (regretfully I don't have a source for it at the moment, but I think I remembered who said it, so I will try to find a link on the net and post it later*).

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russias action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if Russia was a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

Nevertheless, Putins recent speech about historical grievances in general (with dubious historical accuracy) was worrying to hear.

* Update: I've made an initial search but could not find anything. If I remember correctly the reasoning came from a female author of history books (Ann something, I think).

 

[BillTre]

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russias action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if they were a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

I think Fiona Hill, for one, has been saying this.

 

[DennisN]

I think Fiona Hill, for one, has been saying this.

I think I saw an interview with her too, so it may have been she who said it and not the author I was thinking about. I will do a search on youtube for CNN and MSNBC clips...

 

[russ_watters]

I don't think we need to guess what Putin's motivation is, because he's truthful where it matters. Facts don't matter to him, what's important is what he wants. He's told us, and we should believe him: He wants the USSR/Russian Empire back and Ukraine was part of them. That's it. Everything else is tangential or noise.

 

[hutchphd]

Although I agree /w you I suggest we not follow that line of discussion since it will inevitably lead to arguments since it is inextricably tied to politics.

Perhaps...and folks can respond or not on that basis.
I am old enough to have known a few folks who worked on the developmwent of the original fission weapon. I remember talking to my undergrad advisor (Prof John Dewire) about his service Los Alamos and the subsequent moral dilemmas. Also Hans Bethe (my personal hero) had some very prescient attitudes about nuclear weapons (largely his creation) and was very much involved in political activities regarding limiting thermonuclear proliferation. They were political folks, and I wonder what they would say with regard to the Ukraine question. If we are unable to debate it in a rational manner then that alone speaks volumes.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Are we safer because Ukraine ceded its Nuclear stockpile?

Sadly I think the answer to this may be no.

I agree,and the fact the US turned a blind eye to Crimea in 2014 didn't help. Russia was, by that treaty, a guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity.

It would be fair, albeit of questionable wisdom, for the other guarantor to say "the disarmament isn't working out. Here's 100 nuclear-armed Tomahawks. Let us know if you still have troublesome neighbors"

 

[berkeman]

Here's the question that keeps recurring in my head:

Are we safer because Ukraine ceded its Nuclear stockpile?

Sadly I think the answer to this may be no. I still find that answer shocking. But how crazy is crazy?

As a moral issue it seems pretty clear that the west has already vacated the moral high ground, perhaps permanently.

I agree,and the fact the US turned a blind eye to Crimea in 2014 didn't help. Russia was, by that treaty, a guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity.

I have to admit that I've not kept up with the recent history of the region. Can you give some links to reading about these issues? It looks like there is much more to the current situation than what is being presented in the current events news articles...

 

[hutchphd]

Here's a start...seems pretty balanced:

 

[phinds]

It looks like there is much more to the current situation than what is being presented in the current events news articles...

Indeed there is. Interesting geopolitical situation that does NOT make the US look good.

 

[DennisN]

The UK news site The Guardian reports (6 minutes ago):

"
Russian forces will carry out 'special military operation' in Ukraine, says Putin

Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia will carry out a “special military operation” in Ukraine, Reuters reports.

In an address to the Russian people under way now and coinciding with the United nations security council meeting, the Russian president also said:

• clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces are “inevitable” and “only a question of time”.
• Further nato expansion and its use of Ukraine’s territory are unacceptable
• the Russian military operation aims to “protect people”
• circumstances “demand decisive action from Russia”

"

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...rope-sanctions-russian-invasion-border-troops

Furthermore:

Putin says he 'wants to “demilitarise and de-Nazify” Ukraine'

More from Putin’s address:

• The Russian president says he wants to “demilitarise and de-Nazify” Ukraine Putin has also called on Ukrainian soldiers to put down their weapons and go home, according to Reuters, citing the Russian news agency Tass.
• The Russian president adds that “in case of foreign interference, Russia will act immediately”.
• Responsibility for bloodshed will be on the hands of the “Ukrainian regime”
• Russia’s response “will be instant if anyone tries to take it on”
• He tells Ukrainians that “your fathers and grandfathers did not fight so you could help ‘neo-Nazis’”

Also, very sad news: MSNBC has now reported that explosions now have been heard in the Ukraine capital Kyiv.

 

[berkeman]

Yeah, crap. Here we go.

Thoughts with the people in the Ukraine, and neighboring countries. Watching it now...

 

[WWGD]

I am worried too. I've been following the situation closely the last couple of days. Actually I've been concerned ever since Russia took Crimea. But now it has escalated.

As a sidenote I personally suspect that the recent development will increase the support for a future NATO membership among the Swedish and Finnish population. I don't know if/when Sweden will join NATO though. We have a very long history of not being in any military alliance.

Hope you can fight back like the Finns did, though without losing your variant of Karelia et al.

 

[berkeman]

WITW...? Only a probing attack? Putin's chess game opening I guess, but he is toying with thousands of lives. I'm frustrated with the lack of a stone wall defense by NATO and the US, to be honest...

 

[StevieTNZ]

Putin is a revolting person and a paper bag job.

Sorry to my nurse who said the following to me:
"Before you say or write anything ask yourself three questions:
1. Is it true?
2. Is it necessary?
3. Is it kind?"

 

[DennisN]

Hope you can fight back like the Finns did, though without losing your variant of Karelia et al.

Neither I nor the Swedish military (according to Swedish news) sees an immediate Russian threat against Sweden (but things can of course change over the years).

Nevertheless: an aggressive Russia is in my opinion a threat to the security of Europe.
And a threat to the security of Europe is a threat to the world, due to the various interconnections (economical and military (NATO)).

In Sweden the military recently took some defensive actions due to the current situation, and I suspect more of that is to come.

If you ask me, my concerns in the near future apart from Ukraine are the countries Latvia and Lithuania, which both are NATO members, see this map:

There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, and if Russia would try to create a land corridor (my red marking in the map) between Russia and Kaliningrad, Latvia and Lithuania are in the way.

In short: I sincerely hope this conflict does not spread, as it would be very dangerous.

 

[WWGD]

I heard a very interesting input on this in an interview on CNN or MSNBC yesterday which made some sense to me (regretfully I don't have a source for it at the moment, but I think I remembered who said it, so I will try to find a link on the net and post it later*).

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russias action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if Russia was a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

Nevertheless, Putins recent speech about historical grievances in general (with dubious historical accuracy) was worrying to hear.

* Update: I've made an initial search but could not find anything. If I remember correctly the reasoning came from a female author of history books (Ann

Kind of rich. I don't think anyone group really has the moral high ground overall without gross cherry-picking and "cherry-forgetting"

 

[russ_watters]

Multiple media outlets are reporting a full-fledged invasion, including direct attacks on Kyiv and other major cities:
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-23-22/index.html

Cute nugget:

"The Russian Armed Forces are not launching any missile or artillery strikes on the cities of Ukraine. High-precision weapons destroy military infrastructure: military airfields, aviation, air defense facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," the statement read. "The civilian population is not at risk."

 

[256bits]

So they are going to take the whole thing, and change the government to pro Russia.
Which would gives Russia a southern route to the sea, which they surely lack, being hemmed in presently to say the least to access to international waters.

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...e-strikes-confirmed-as-russia-invades-ukraine

How is the confrontation seen in Russia?

Russian state media are portraying Moscow as coming to the rescue of war-torn areas of eastern Ukraine that are tormented by Ukraine’s aggression.

TV presenters are professing the end of suffering for the residents of the breakaway regions.

“You paid with your blood for these eight years of torment and anticipation,” anchor Olga Skabeyeva said during a popular political talk show Tuesday (local time). “Russia will now be defending Donbas.”

Channel One struck a more festive tone, with its correspondent in Donetsk asserting that local residents “say it is the best news over the past years of war.”

“Now they have confidence in the future and that the years-long war will finally come to an end,” she said.

Whether ordinary Russians are buying it is another question.

 

[Rive]

Hard to say what's the aim, but they definitely try to finish it before the West can catch up. I think it's likely that East-Ukraine will be given up and Ukraine will try to keep the west only, with saving as many of their forces as they can, while waiting for the pressure from the West to take effect.

Retrospective: Russian peacekeeping in Belarus, oh my All the events from the last few weeks were about this.

 

[256bits]

WITW...? Only a probing attack? Putin's chess game opening I guess, but he is toying with thousands of lives. I'm frustrated with the lack of a stone wall defense by NATO and the US, to be honest...

Ukraine is not a NATO member, and the sphere of influence for the US in that region is not that great.
Even the EEU response seemed to lack lustre leading up.
Wagging fingers and a lot of frowning talking heads certainly did not have much of an effect,

 

[strangerep]

There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, and if Russia would try to create a land corridor (my red marking in the map) between Russia and Kaliningrad, Latvia and Lithuania are in the way.

Latvia and Lithuania are both in NATO, last time I checked.

So after Russia finishes annexing Ukraine, then (presumably) Moldovia which is also not in NATO, it would have to take on a NATO country or (so-called?) neutral Finland to expand further west.

 

[WWGD]

Latvia and Lithuania are both in NATO, last time I checked.

So after Russia finishes annexing Ukraine, then (presumably) Moldovia which is also not in NATO, it would have to take on a NATO country or (so-called?) neutral Finland to expand further west.

And Finns still have WW2 memories fresh, with a high conscription rate; mandatory service , mostly as a reaction to their war with Russia.

 

[StevieTNZ]

So after Russia finishes annexing Ukraine...

Which is against international law.

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/aotearoa-new-zealand-condemns-advance-russian-military-ukraine