Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[strangerep]

[Russia annexing Ukraine]... Which is against international law.

...which is enforced by... the UN Security Council? Over which both Russia and China have veto power? Such international "law" is a joke.

 

[Jarvis323]

So far this is the best coverage I have found. Any better live news sources?

 

[PeroK]

WITW...? Only a probing attack? Putin's chess game opening I guess, but he is toying with thousands of lives.

You mean hundreds of millions of lives. This is war in Europe.

 

[fresh_42]

There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, and if Russia would try to create a land corridor (my red marking in the map) between Russia and Kaliningrad, Latvia and Lithuania are in the way.

Plus: Putin could follow the same narrative, protecting Russian minorities in all three countries.

 

[fresh_42]

Latvia and Lithuania are both in NATO, last time I checked.

So? Again: Putin is following exactly Hitler's textbook from 1938. And he grew up in a world where he developed the same mindset (Cold War, KGB).

The Munich Agreement of October 1938 forced the government of the Czech Republic to cede the Sudetenland to Germany.

Although France and Great Britain were once again able to avoid an impending military confrontation with their appeasement policy, they lost a great deal of respect and trust among the countries of Eastern Europe because of the abandonment of their ally Czechoslovakia.

Who will bet that he won't count on exactly the same mechanism: the west won't risk a world war for the Balticum?

 

[Mike S.]

There is potential for the war to spread if NATO acts in the most reasonable way.

See Wikipedia or any other source: Ukraine received substantial territory in 1939 from Poland. So far, Poland has been unable to reclaim this land, but if Ukraine is about to be overrun by Russian troops, it should make very solid sense for them to cede the land back to Poland to be defended by NATO, in exchange for guarantees that their people (especially the ones allegedly on hit lists, or facing discrimination based on LGBT status) will always have sanctuary there.

Whether the Russians acknowledge that new NATO territory is another question, but you have to draw the line somewhere.

 

[Rive]

Bringing up historical data as basis of any kind of border revision is a very sensitive topic and would not be a good precedent. Once it starts you better think about doubling or tripling the land available in Europe, and that still might not be able to cover the sum of the various 'our biggest' maps.

 

[Borek]

Refugees are already pouring into Poland. There is a huge group of Ukrainians (probably around 1.3 million, Poland has around 38 millions population) working here (kinda like Mexicans in USA, although they are mostly legal). So for them not only Poland is a first country outside that is not under a direct Russian influence, but also a country where they already have friends and contacts.

 

[fresh_42]

Bringing up historical data as basis of any kind of border revision is a very sensitive topic and would not be a good precedent. Once it starts you better think about doubling or tripling the land available in Europe, and that still might not be able to cover the sum of the various 'our biggest' maps.

Yes! Back to the German borders of 1236!

 

[Mike S.]

Bringing up historical data as basis of any kind of border revision is a very sensitive topic and would not be a good precedent. Once it starts you better think about doubling or tripling the land available in Europe, and that still might not be able to cover the sum of the various 'our biggest' maps.

Isn't that what Putin just did in his speech?

 

[Rive]

Isn't that what Putin just did in his speech?

And you have just went with his lead

 

[geordief]

Refugees are already pouring into Poland. There is a huge group of Ukrainians (probable around 1.3 million, Poland has around 38 millions population) working here (kinda like Mexicans in USA, although they are mostly legal). So for them not only Poland is a first country outside that is not under a direct Russian influence, but also a country where they already have friends and contacts.

Will a refugee exodus allow Russia to gerrymander the country to get a result in an "election" they can live with on an interim basis?

 

[fresh_42]

Will a refugee exodus allow Russia to gerrymander the country to get a result in an "election" they can live with on an interim basis?

No, but this is irrelevant. He already called the current leaders Nazis planning a genocide. He will simply announce a governor of his choice. Why should he take the risk of an election? And even if, he is a certified professional to get the desired result.

 

[rsk]

I am just very shocked by what has happened today.

I've been following the news, I've had some sympathy for the Russian position re the separatist regions. and I expected nothing more than a military intervention in those areas.

Is Putin gambling that nato won't intervene and he can take back Ukraine with little fuss?
Is today just a kind of shock and awe to be followed by a 'withdrawal' to the disputed separatist areas with the hope that 'the west' will now settle for that as a compromise?
Or is he genuinely pushing for all out war?

Disgusted at Boris Johnson's speech today when he could barely keep the smirk off his face. It's a time for serious diplomacy.

 

[rsk]

There is a Russian enclave called Kaliningrad, and if Russia would try to create a land corridor (my red marking in the map) between Russia and Kaliningrad, Latvia and Lithuania are in the way.

I have been reading about kaliningrad today, I was looking at maps of Ukraine and eastern europe and noticed it, I had no idea there was a bit of Russia there.

 

[Keith_McClary]

Our Alberta Premier's first thought was that the world should boycott Russian oil and gas. He didn't explicitly say "... buy ours instead".

 

[phinds]

No, but this is irrelevant. He already called the current leaders Nazis planning a genocide. He will simply announce a governor of his choice. Why should he take the risk of an election? And even if, he is a certified professional to get the desired result.

 

[LCSphysicist]

We are living history right now.

 

[berkeman]

An off-topic tangent has been deleted.

Please keep it professional folks...

 

[russ_watters]

So?

There is deterrence value in NATO, if we fulfill our treaty obligations. Right now Putin is taking over a non-NATO country, with assurances from us that we won't intervene. And really, we can't now because we would be attacking Russia if we did. If he attacks a NATO country with US/German/etc troops in it, he's directly starting a war against us. That's a much bigger deal, and we successfully avoided war with the USSR for 40 years (and defeated it) this way.

Of course, we could have chosen to protect Ukraine in the same way but chose not to.

Why should he take the risk of an election?

Elections/votes don't carry risks for Putin.

 

[russ_watters]

Is Putin gambling that nato won't intervene and he can take back Ukraine with little fuss?

I don't see the gamble. We've told him we won't intervene.

 

[DennisN]

As a sidenote I personally suspect that the recent development will increase the support for a future NATO membership among the Swedish and Finnish population.

This discussion has already started now in Sweden and Finland.

The leader of one of the parties in Sweden has voiced the opinion:
"Lööf: Sweden should join Nato now" (SVT) (my title translation, the article is in Swedish only)

Our current Swedish prime minister is however careful with her words and says that "not being in an alliance has served us well" and "in this moment it is not wise to do anything" (she means with regards to a membership in Nato). (source: Expressen, a Swedish newspaper, in Swedish only)

 

[DennisN]

Plus: Putin could follow the same narrative, protecting Russian minorities in all three countries.

Yes, I agree completely.

 

[PeroK]

I don't see the gamble. We've told him we won't intervene.

It's still a gamble as Russia has things at stake that it could lose. Europe is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas. We have a massive incentive now (even if we did not before) to try to become independent of Russia for our energy. And, for example, many of Putin's wealthy supporters have large property portfolios in London. He is gambling that the EU will not do anything to hurt its own economic interests and that if we retaliate in any way (through sanctions etc.) that his supporters and, more widely, the Russian people will blame Europe and the US and not him. That is a gamble.

 

[berkeman]

Wow, who saw this coming?

Russian riot police tell protesters to disperse in Moscow​

From CNN's Anna Chernova and Nic Robertson

Russian riot police are urging protesters to leave Pushkinskaya Square in Moscow, saying over loudspeakers that the “[protest] action is unauthorized.”
CNN’s Nic Robertson and team on the ground have witnessed people being detained by police. Some are carrying signs with messages, including multiple signs saying “no to war.”
Russian authorities on Thursday warned citizens that participating in anti-war protests could lead to prosecution and criminal charges.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-24-22-intl/index.html

 

[gleem]

Continuing on @PeroK post. There was an CNN article stating that the West will have to hurt themselves in helping the Ukranians by at least accepting higher energy costs. We will have to put our money where our mouths are. The West has more to loose than Russia. The West"s GDP is well over $40T vs Russians $1.7T. However the West has grown accustom to the comforts of good economies. The question is how long will we tolerate the forthcoming sacrifices.

Pehaps one of the results of this conflict that could be the biggest factor is the number Russian casulties. Putin is expecting a swift take-over but if it drags on too long the casulties will rise. The Russian people might accept the sanctions for some time but not too many casulties; they still remember Afghanistan.

 

[fresh_42]

There is deterrence value in NATO, if we fulfill our treaty obligations. Right now Putin is taking over a non-NATO country, with assurances from us that we won't intervene.

Theoretically. But what if the balance sheet says Balticum or WWIII?

Please read my links at the beginning of the thread. I hope it isn't completely comparable, however, I wouldn't rule it out.

 

[russ_watters]

It's still a gamble as Russia has things at stake that it could lose. Europe is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas. We have a massive incentive now (even if we did not before) to try to become independent of Russia for our energy.

True/fair enough. To some extent Putin must have known there would be sanctions, so there would have been a pre-calculated cost - but an uncertain one.

But I think what I was responding to was about the military gamble/lack thereof.

 

[fresh_42]

China is sitting in Bejing smiling! They are Putin's emergency exit on whatever sanctions from the West might be, and they are watching it, thinking: If he can do this with Ukraine, why we couldn't do it with Taiwan?

I really, really hate dictatorships, of any color.

 

[fresh_42]

At the beginning of February 2022, Deutsche Welle [German worldwide radio station] was banned from broadcasting in Russia by the Russian Foreign Ministry; in addition, journalists' accreditations were revoked.

And why is CNN live behind German news translated on TV?