Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[PeroK]

China is sitting in Bejing smiling!

I'm not so sure. China is dependent on the Europe and the US. In many ways, the last thing they want is people in the West to get a conscience and start questioning who we do business with. Democracies are fickle and if we saw China as Russia's ally and every second thing we look at is "made in China" then you never know.

Also, Putin made a fairly obvious threat of nuclear war today ("something the world has never seen") if anyone interferes with his plans. China's strategy is ecomomic dominance, not a nuclear stand-off with the West.

 

[StevieTNZ]

The sanctions aren't doing anything to stop this continuing... what Ukraine needs to do is attack Moscow. So far 40 people have lost their lives and if I was President of Ukraine I would be launching missiles into Russia to teach them a lesson.

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...r-sanctions-as-russia-moves-in-across-ukraine

 

[PeroK]

PS I should say I'm not particularly optimistic, but the BBC News Correspondent in Moscow said what I'm hoping: that Putin has been in power for so long that he thinks he's invincible. He simply arrests anyone who protests again him. But, by precipitating a war he may have made for him a fatal mistake.

 

[DennisN]

This discussion has already started now in Sweden and Finland.

The leader of one of the parties in Sweden has voiced the opinion:
"Lööf: Sweden should join Nato now" (SVT) (my title translation, the article is in Swedish only)

Our current Swedish prime minister is however careful with her words and says that "not being in an alliance has served us well" and "in this moment it is not wise to do anything" (she means with regards to a membership in Nato). (source: Expressen, a Swedish newspaper, in Swedish only)

Update:

I heard earlier today one of the most famous journalists/commentators on Swedish national TV say that the current opinion of the Swedish people about NATO membership is ca:

• 1/3 wants Sweden to join NATO
• 1/3 wants Sweden to stay out of NATO
• 1/3 is undecided

Furthermore, on the paper we are not NATO members but we have had very close defensive cooperations with NATO and the US since a long time now. It is no secret that Sweden is heavily leaning towards the West at heart.

And I am certain that the current development regarding Russia and Ukraine will only strengthen this.

 

[fresh_42]

Update:

I heard earlier today one of the most famous journalists/commentators on Swedish national TV say that the current opinion of the Swedish people about NATO membership is ca:

• 1/3 wants Sweden to join NATO
• 1/3 wants Sweden to stay out of NATO
• 1/3 is undecided

Furthermore, on the paper we are not NATO members but we have had very close defensive cooperations with NATO and the US since a long time now. It is no secret that Sweden is heavily leaning towards the West at heart.

And I am certain that the current development regarding Russia and Ukraine will only strengthen this.

I'm not afraid of Sweden but of the Baltic countries. You cannot reason with a person who suffers F60.0.

And Berlin. I mean, as of 2020 there are 26,330 Russians in Berlin.

 

[DennisN]

I'm not afraid of Sweden but of the Baltic countries.

Same here. I just wanted to share the info so people here know what the position of Sweden is.

 

[Jarvis323]

I've read China is staunchly against violation of state sovereignty in principle. So Russia's fueling of the separatists in East Ukraine, declaration of their independence, and now invasion, are all behaviors they condemn implicitly, in principle at least. But they have strategic interests depending on a good relationship with Russia. So apparently they are in an awkward position geopolitically. Note, they view Taiwan as part of China already.

In terms of Russia's invasion emboldening them to possibly invade Taiwan. I'm not sure it should have that effect, because it is unlikely for Russia to have a net benefit from this. The economic effects, diplomatic effects, deaths, etc. will more likely be a sobering example of how nobody will benefit from that kind of aggression. At least that's my guess, but I may be totally wrong.

 

[phinds]

Biden just gave an address to the nation in which he threw out a bunch of kumbsya stuff about how the allies are united on sanctions and then in an answer in the Q&A he specifically said the the allies are NOT united because the most lethal sanction of all, expulsion of Russian banks from Swift, was NOT being done because the Europeans are not on board with it.

We're still being wimps and Putin's got to be loving it.

 

[fresh_42]

We're still being wimps and Putin's got to be loving it.

It is easy to demand from the Europeans against Russia what the US isn't willing to do against China. Things are more complicated than black and white. And, of course, do Europeans have tight relationships with Russia.

 

[fresh_42]

Wow, who saw this coming?

Russian riot police tell protesters to disperse in Moscow​

1,300 < arrests and counting.

Edit: 1,700+ now (1 a.m. in Moscow)

 

[phinds]

It is easy to demand from the Europeans against Russia what the US isn't willing to do against China. Things are more complicated than black and white. And, of course, do Europeans have tight relationships with Russia.

True. I should have added that were I a European I might well be against expelling Russia from SWIFT even though I would realize intellectually that it is perhaps the only thing that would really get Putin's attention. Self-interest is a powerful motivator and I DO understand why the European don't want the SWIFT expulsion.

I DO, however, stand by my statement that Putin's got to be loving the fact that the allies are NOT united on sanctions.

 

[Astronuc]

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russias action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if Russia was a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

I've heard this mentioned several times, including this morning. One expert apologized during an interview about being wrong about Putin and about a comment made recently in which the expert had mentioned that the Biden administration was being a bit hysterical. It's one of those rare moments where an expert admits to being wrong.

I think Fiona Hill, for one, has been saying this.

Hill certainly knows about Russia and Putin.

Ukraine is a dysfunctional, somewhat democracy. At least the population had more say than they would under Russian control. And now the concern is that Putin's forces will eliminate dissent. The rhetoric from Putin is harsh. Someone has commented on his short stature, that like Napoleon, he suffers from 'short-man' syndrome (i.e., insecurity) among other dysfunctions. And the expert who apologized earlier mentioned that Putin probably felt backed into a corner based on comments from the US, UK and EU/NATO, so he felt the need to act by invading Ukraine. If they had forces in Belarus, Crimea and certainly along the eastern border, that was a sure sign that Putin has been building up to invade Ukraine before the US could respond.

I recall something about the US declaring Ukraine as a ally. Well, clearly, that didn't mean a whole lot in the present crisis.

 

[PeroK]

Ukraine is a dysfunctional, somewhat democracy.

A bit like the USA, then?

 

[phinds]

I recall something about the US declaring Ukraine as a ally. Well, clearly, that didn't mean a whole lot in the present crisis.

It meant exactly as much as it meant when Russian annexed Crimea. Pretty much nothing.

 

[Jarvis323]

KYIV, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been captured by Russian forces, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said on Thursday.

"It is impossible to say the Chernobyl nuclear power plant is safe after a totally pointless attack by the Russians," he said.

"This is one of the most serious threats in Europe today," Podolyak said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...russian-forces-ukrainian-official-2022-02-24/

 

[fresh_42]

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russias action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if Russia was a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

I've heard this mentioned several times, including this morning. One expert apologized during an interview about being wrong about Putin and about a comment made recently in which the expert had mentioned that the Biden administration was being a bit hysterical. It's one of those rare moments where an expert admits to being wrong.

It is pretty clear that it is not about Ukraine being in NATO. If he wished to avoid a common border with NATO he shouldn't have invaded Ukraine, since now he borders NATO on many frontlines.

Again, Putin is a child of the Cold War and a KGB officer at heart. It's plain old imperialism. I mean, he named the end of the Soviet Union a catastrophe!

 

[DennisN]

I haven't said this before, but I think it is appropriate to say that this day, 24th February 2022, is a turning point in history, and we are now waking up and facing a different world emerging (with respect to security etc).

This could have far more far reaching consequences than the terrorist attacks on the US on September 11 2001.

Regretfully that is currently my feeling, and my two cents.

Furthermore, it is VERY unfortunate that this happens right after/during a worldwide pandemic.
Very unfortunate.

To be frank, I have two strong feelings today: sadness and anger.

 

[BillTre]

When Ukraine got rid of its nukes (1994), it got "security assurances" from Russia, The US, the UK, and in different forms from France and China.

The assurances were all kind of passive: we will respect their territory, etc.
There is not an assurance that anyone would go and protect them.
A pledge to take problems to the UN is in there, but it is empty.
Russia can stop anything with its UN powers of veto.

Putin is directly defying these agreements (with his "anti-passive respect" for their borders).
Other countries, by this agreement, don't really have (are not obligated) to do anything.

Putin is to Never be Trusted.

Hill certainly knows about Russia and Putin.

So does Garry Kasparov (whom I consider a real hero of democracy) who also has a lot to say about Putin.
https://www.kasparov.com/putin-cont...individual-in-history-msnbc-february-24-2022/

 

[DennisN]

Again, Putin is a child of the Cold War and a KGB officer at heart. It's plain old imperialism. I mean, he named the end of the Soviet Union a catastrophe!

Once again I agree with you.

(Putin has been on my radar for a very long time, and I have been worried about his intentions for a long time.)

 

[PeroK]

It meant exactly as much as it meant when Russian annexed Crimea. Pretty much nothing.

I'm not particularly optimistic, but I wouldn't dismiss the West's resolve just yet. The really major decisions on banking and energy cannot be made immediately. At the very least we would need to plan for an embargo on Russian oil and gas. But, if what emerges from the Ukraine is particularly bloody and brutal, then I wouldn't rule that out. Democracies are fickle.

If enough people are appalled by what Russia has done, then they may force our government to act. For example, a member of parliament today recited the names of 35 Russian "oligarchs" who (according to Navalny) are cronies of Putin and are based in the UK. One of them owns a major football club. I can see that club coming under pressure.

If you're cynical, you may say that ultimately Premier League football is more important than Ukraine and peace in Europe. I don't know. It could go either way. We may be sitting here a year from now and only a few protesters across Europe are still trying to get something done about Russia. Or, it could snowball.

Finally, don't forget that the UK is under almost constant cyber attack from Russia, so it's not entirely a case of being oblivious to their actions. Both the UK and USA are aware of just how active Russia is and has been in trying to undermine our democracies by attacks on IT systems. I don't think it's impossible that this is the point at which the collective decision is that we cannot sit around until Putin successfully brings down a western country's banking system. And, if we don't stand up to him now, then he'll become more emboldened.

 

[fresh_42]

I don't think it's impossible that this is the point at which the collective decision is that we cannot sit around until Putin successfully brings down a western country's banking system,

What he already did with the Estonian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_cyberattacks_on_Estonia

 

[PeroK]

What he already did with the Estonian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_cyberattacks_on_Estonia

Well okay, but there must be a point eventually when the West will take decisive action. To use your favourite example, there was no compulsion on the UK to declare war on Germany in 1939 over Poland. We could have ignored the invasion of Poland. But, we didn't. That was the point at which we finally acted.

There must be a point at which, if nothing else, we feel sufficiently threatened.

 

[fresh_42]

To use your favourite example, there was no compulsion on the UK to declare war on Germany in 1939 over Poland. We could have ignored the invasion of Poland. But, we didn't.

After parts of Czechia (an ally of France) fell to Germany and the European powers (UK, FR, I) still tried appeasement politics. Poland was a year after Munich 1938! So think again before you congratulate yourself early.

 

[PeroK]

After parts of Czechia (an ally of France) fell to Germany and the European powers (UK, FR, I) still tried appeasement politics. Poland was a year after Munich 1938! So think again before you congratulate yourself early.

I stated a simple historical fact, which you seem unable to accept because it doesn't tie in with your Weltanschauung. The UK declared war on Germany in 1939. You have to accept that as a historical fact!

 

[fresh_42]

I stated a simple historical fact, which you seem unable to accept because it doesn't tie in with your Weltanschauung. The UK declared war on Germany in 1939. You have to accept that as a historical fact!

Sure, but not before other countries have been sacrified. Same as now.

Edit: The first link in this thread.

 

[Jarvis323]

Ukraine is now urging citizens to take up arms and fight. That is hard for me to wrap my mind around, unless maybe they have lots of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons they need operators for and the civillians are able to operate them.

I hope it will not be people with guns making a last stand, because I would think that would be a pointless massacre. At what point to surrender is a difficult question.

 

[russ_watters]

I'm not particularly optimistic, but I wouldn't dismiss the West's resolve just yet. The really major decisions on banking and energy cannot be made immediately.

Well, we could have started working on them 4 months or 10 years ago.

If there is going to be a major and permanent shift in energy policy though, that will take years.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Ukraine is now urging citizens to take up arms and fight. That is hard for me to wrap my mind around, unless maybe they have lots of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons they need operators for and the civillians are able to operate them.

Why aren't other countries bombing the sh** out of Russia? Ukraine can't do this by themselves. Sitting in a room and imposing sanctions isn't doing much to deter.

 

[fresh_42]

Why aren't other countries bombing the sh** out of Russia? Ukraine can't do this by themselves. Sitting in a room and imposing sanctions isn't doing much to deter.

Biden nailed it weeks ago: If Russians and Americans are shooting at each other, we will have WW III. And bombing Russia isn't a good idea if you don't want to be nuked.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Biden nailed it weeks ago: If Russians and Americans are shooting at each other, we will have WW III. And bombing Russia isn't a good idea if you don't want to be nuked.

World War Three, in my opinion, started yesterday. And it shouldn't just be the USA attacking Russia.