Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[gmax137]

5%

??

 

[anorlunda]

From the Cyberlaw Podcast, Episode 397

https://reason.com/volokh/2022/03/0...escends-across-europe/?comments=true#comments
Much of this episode is devoted to the new digital curtain falling across Europe. With usual host Stewart Baker away from the microphone, Gus Horwitz and Mark-MacCarthy review the tech boycott that has seen companies like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft and Adobe pull their service from Russia. Nick Weaver describes how Russia has cracked down on independent Russian media outlets and blocked access to the websites of foreign media including the BBC and Facebook. Gus reports on an apparent Russian decision to require all servers and domains to transfer Russian zone, thereby disconnecting itself from the global internet.

Mark describes decisions by private companies in the U.S. to exclude Russian media from their systems, including how DirecTV's decision to drop RT America led the Russian 24-hour news channel to shutter its operations. In contrast, the EU officially shut down all RT and Sputnik operations, including their apps and websites. Nick wonders if the enforcement mechanism is up to the task of taking down the websites. Gus, Dave and Mark discuss the mythmaking in social media about the Ukrainian war such as the Ghost of Kyiv, and wonder if fiction might do some good to keep up the morale of the besieged country.

Dave Aitel reminds us that despite the apparent lack of cyberattacks in the war, more might be going on under the surface. He also he gives us details about the https://reason.com/volokh/the%20Conti%20Ransomware%20gang%20was%20facing%20an%20internal%20exploit%20of%20its%20own. that affected the Conti Ransomware gang when they voiced support for Russia. Nick opines that cryptocurrencies do not have the volume to serve as an effective way around the financial sanctions against Russia. Sultan Meghji agrees that the financial sanctions will accelerate the move away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency and is skeptical that a principles-based constraint will do much good to halt that trend.

A comment said:

A balkanization of the internet may be necessary. Letting Russia, China drive the governance isn't a win for freedom. Pity we can' give them Facebook and Twitter.

I have always thought that balkanization of the Internet would be a very bad thing. For example, if Russians have no Internet, no communications to the west, it would be difficult for them to learn what the rest of the world is saying about Ukraine. Nor could we judge how much support Putin has.

 

[fresh_42]

I think Poland should allow Ukrainian pilots to fly the fighter planes out of Poland, and then to Ukraine. Ukraine must be allowed to defend itself, without having its hands and feet bound.

There is a problem. Putin will say that Polish pilots, or even US pilots in case the exchange would actually happen in Ramstein fly those jets. Furthermore, many of these jets (IIRC 22) are from old Eastern Germany's stock. So there are a lot of reasons why this factually means that NATO is participating actively in the war.

Not a good idea.

 

[gmax137]

if Russians have no Internet, no communications to the west, it would be difficult for them to learn what the rest of the world is saying about Ukraine. Nor could we judge how much support Putin has.

What happened to the Voice of America? Do they still broadcast shortwave, or did they move entirely to internet-based? Do the Russian people still have old SW radio sets gathering dust in the attics?

Was VoA effective in the cold war days? I mean, did the target audiences listen and trust the news, or was it seen by them (the people) as Western propaganda?

 

[fresh_42]

??

5% of the total Ukrainian population are currently refugees. Only counted those abroad.

 

[fresh_42]

Was VoA effective in the cold war days? I mean, did the target audiences listen and trust the news, or was it seen by them (the people) as Western propaganda?

Not sure about Voice of America. But Deutsche Welle worked. Probably because many people in the eastern part of Europe understood German. I guess more than English.

I once dropped a line in German in an overcrowded office of a Russian servant to deal with papers about my (and the others) stay in Vladikavkaz ((North-)Ossetia, Caucasus, Russia): "No wonder the Russians drink so much!" and an old lady next to me began to giggle.

 

[gmax137]

I guess more than English.

VoA broadcasted in the local languages. I knew a guy who read the news to Ukraine back in the 1970s (he was born there).

 

[anorlunda]

What happened to the Voice of America?

Good question. Most of the world's short wave radio broadcasts have ceased. They use Internet instead. That would mean that the number of home SW receivers must be reduced too.

I used to listen to SW broadcasts from many countries, but I had to stop around 2013 because most of them ceased. I'm not sure about Voice of America.

Related news: Scott Manley reports on Starlink for Ukraine. He said that Starlink had been waiting for government approval from Ukraine and other European countries. Elon Musk decided to interpret their tweet asking for help as official approval. Manley also reported that the next Starlink launch (today) would be delayed to improve anti-jamming and cyberwar defenses, and to enable mobile use (Ukraine only), in Starlink. It is a civilian system being used in a war zone.

SpaceX also warned Ukrainian Starlink users to keep the antennas away from people because the Russians could detect them and target them for rocket attacks. Mobile use, enables mounting them on moving vehicles.

Here's the Scott manly report. Start at 10:12.

 

[fresh_42]

VoA broadcasted in the local languages. I knew a guy who read the news to Ukraine back in the 1970s (he was born there).

Now that you say it. I'm actually not sure in which language Deutsche Welle broadcast abroad. Anyway, Putin has forbidden them in Russia two weeks ago.

 

[Keith_McClary]

Cardiff Philharmonic replaces the programme of its upcoming all-Tchaikovsky concert

 

[fresh_42]

Cardiff Philharmonic replaces the programme of its upcoming all-Tchaikovsky concert

This is nonsense. Tchaikovsky is barely to blame for this war. If even Barenboim could play Wagner in Tel Aviv, which was far more provocating, then there is nothing wrong with Tchaikovsky in Wales. And since Tchaikovsky was gay, this would be twice a good reason to play him!

They postponed a Netrebko concert here into next year. This makes sense. She refused to condemn Putin's war!

 

[Vanadium 50]

if Russians have no Internet, no communications to the west, it would be difficult for them to learn what the rest of the world is saying about Ukraine.

Not everyone considers this a bug. To some, it is a feature.

 

[hutchphd]

This is nonsense. Tchaikovsky is barely to blame for this war.

But I haven't heard him condemn it!
This makes perfect sense to me. It may not be rational. But it is not nonsense.

.

 

[artis]

Was VoA effective in the cold war days? I mean, did the target audiences listen and trust the news, or was it seen by them (the people) as Western propaganda?

My grandfather and father used to say that when the weather conditions were right you could tune into western stations , radio free Europe and such, probably VoA too not sure will have to ask again as last time we discussed this was long ago.

But truth be told it wasn't just foreign radio , in the latter days of the USSR , from 60's onwards, many people knew at least something about life in west. You know sailors covertly brought with them some "goods" from the west, like jeans and chewing gums which were all somewhat taboo items here.
Some people were also allowed to go to the west such as artists and certain specialists so they also saw with their own eyes what they later came back to tell.
You know just like in biblical times, word of mouth testimony...
But we were not as secluded as North Korea, it would be almost impossible to completely "lock up" a territory as huge as the USSR was.
As always geography played a role just as now, the closer one lived to the west in the USSR the more "west like" the people were, I said this before that east Germany was different than Poland and Poland was even different than the Baltics etc.
It's the same now, People in Moscow and StPetersburg have their eyes open wider than those who live further in. Also age plays a large difference, the younger generation has been abroad a lot and uses internet.

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...-ukraine-a-possible-sign-of-hydraulic-warfare

Satellite images show flooding north of Kyiv in a possible sign of 'hydraulic warfare'

In the early days of Russia's invasion, Ukrainian soldiers and civilians scrambled to assemble their defences, seeking to make moving through the country as difficult as possible for Moscow's forces.
They blew up bridges, used buses as makeshift roadblocks and welded homemade "Czech hedgehogs" to repel Russian tanks. And, according to a new set of satellite images, they also may have used one of the world's oldest methods of fortification: water.

Photographs from Planet Labs PBC, an American firm, and other researchers appear to show a large expanse of flooded land north of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. In a pair of before and after images, taken on February 22nd and 28th, the swath of territory becomes significantly more sodden.

The Washington Post was not able to confirm that the flooding was intentional, but Planet Labs said it consulted analysts who believe it was deliberate. If so, it would be the latest example of a centuries-old practice.

"When you're defending, you're trying to use what you have," said Marta Kepe, a senior defence analyst at the Rand Corp. "Throughout history, we have multiple examples where countries or military actors have built fortification lines - walls, trenches, fortresses and bunkers. But often we forget that rivers, marshes and water-based defence lines can also be used."

If it is intentional, Kepe added, "that may be what Ukrainians are trying to do - use water to prevent Russian forces from getting close to Kyiv."

Deliberate flooding during combat - either to erect a barrier or destroy an area - is known as "hydraulic warfare," and it has often been used to supplement a defensive strategy, Kepe said.

"Ukraine is mounting a defensive operation in its own territory," she said. "Considering that, I would assume that they would be able to use their superior knowledge of the terrain to their advantage. Hydraulic operations would require such in-depth knowledge of the terrain."

 

[wrobel]

 

[Hall]

View attachment 298204

I really didn't get that. Can you please explain?

 

[pinball1970]

I really didn't get that. Can you please explain?

Its a pro Russian symbol, Z

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/letter-z-russia-symbol-pro-war/

 

[neilparker62]

I think we need a 'reset' on this conflict and we need it urgently if I'm not stating the obvious. We need to stop the carnage of Ukrainians (and Russians for that matter) and then we need to rethink how on Earth such a disaster could ever arise.

After that we need to reboot ISS. We need to reboot the iconic day on which McDonald's opened in Moscow. We need to reboot the global internet and stop talking a lot of nonsense about firewalls which perpetuate archaic ideologies. We need to reboot joint endeavours on nuclear fusion and on space exploration. In short we need to reboot global sanity.

Just my ha'penny's worth!

 

[artis]

and then we need to rethink how on Earth such a disaster could ever arise.

Deep down , abstracting away from the current situation, it's simple I think, but hard to accomplish in reality. Given we all are born as babies, small little harmless things it is then our nature combined with too much power for too long, + resentment and anger. I think we cannot fundamentally change human nature (many have tried with force with no luck) but we can put systems in place that don't allow people to get too much power for too long.
The west did this hundreds of years ago , Russia has never done it, the result is before our eyes.

 

[phinds]

I think we need... we need... We need ... we need ... we need ... We need ...
We need ... We need ... we need ...

Needing things is pointless if there is no way to get them. You're like Captain Hindsight who swoops in after a disaster and points out "well, what we SHOULD have done was ... "

 

[neilparker62]

Needing things is pointless if there is no way to get them.

Fair comment but at least put an alternate vision on the table. It's like buying a ticket for the lottery - you have a miniscule probability of winning but at least better than if you did not buy a ticket at all.

 

[gmax137]

we need ... we need...

Needing things is pointless if there is no way to get them. You're like Captain Hindsight who swoops in after a disaster and points out "well, what we SHOULD have done was ... "

Unless the first quote ends with "So, starting today I am going to do xxx" then yes it is pointless. Many people say "we need to do x" but what they mean is "somebody else needs to do x" If everyone actually did something we might make some progress.

not picking on you in particular, @neilparker62

 

[neilparker62]

""That's some question. Here? Nazis? Fascists? These people? Guys what are you talking about? These are not fascists or Nazis? Look at them. These are Ukrainians. It's simple."

Volodymyr Dehtyarov: Soviet army veteran

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60685723

So "Guys" - what are you talking about actually ?

 

[Hall]

Its a pro Russian symbol, Z

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/letter-z-russia-symbol-pro-war/

Does it mean that wrobel has lately come to condemn the war?

 

[phinds]

Does it mean that wrobel has lately come to condemn the war?

? When did he ever NOT condemn the war? @wrobel am I missing something here?

 

[DennisN]

An article on BBC today about war crimes and legal matters regarding prosecution etc.

What is a war crime, and could Putin be prosecuted over Ukraine? (BBC News, 10th March 2022)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60690688

 

[DennisN]

Here are two recent, interesting interviews with Andrei Kozyrev (Russian Foreign Minister from 1991 to 1996), which I post in addition to my previous interview posts (#653 and #734):

Putin Is Acting ‘Out Of Desperation’ Says Ex-Russian Foreign Minister (MSNBC, March 9 2022)


Kremlin Vet: They’ll Overthrow Putin Before Giving Him ‘Bad News’ About Russian Setbacks In Ukraine (MSNBC, March 10, 2022)

 

[Vanadium 50]

I think we need a 'reset' on this conflict and we need it urgently if I'm not stating the obvious.

Russia's likely response is "what you mean 'we', kemosabe?"

 

[StevieTNZ]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...e-hold-highlevel-talks-after-hospital-bombing
Russia denies bombing children's hospital

The Russian Defense Ministry denied has responsibility for striking a maternity hospital in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol and claimed that the explosions that hit the building were staged to smear Russia.

Ukrainian officials said the Russian air strike on the hospital killed three people, including a child, and wounded 17 others. The attack has caused global outrage.

Russia's Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov denied that the Russian military struck the hospital. He claimed that the two explosions that ravaged the building were caused by explosive devices planted nearby in what he described as a "staged provocation to incite anti-Russian agitation in the West."

From the same link:
Zelenskyy: Invasion will backfire

Ukraine's president is telling Russian leaders that their country’s invasion of Ukraine will backfire, by landing them in court and making their people hate them.

“You will definitely be prosecuted for complicity in war crimes,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video released Thursday (local time).

The West has slapped harsh financial and economic sanctions on Russia because of the invasion, and the Ukrainian leader said the consequences will be felt by all Russians.

“And then, it will definitely happen, you will be hated by Russian citizens — everyone you have been deceiving constantly, daily, for many years in a row, when they feel the consequences of your lies in their wallets, in their shrinking possibilities, in the stolen future of Russian children.”