Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fluidistic]

Plus the fact, that the mean distance between Putin and even his faithful dog is meanwhile 10 meters and counting.View attachment 298738The other guy lived in a dirt hole at the end of the world, not in a military compound surrounded by 20,000,000 people.

This is just for the show. Putin was very close, handshaking without any facemask the president of Argentina a few days before the invasion, just google Alberto fernandez putin. Granted that president was vaccinated by Sputnik and had gotten covid, it doesn't change the fact that the same treatment was not done with Macron like one or two days later, who was also vaccinated and had gotten Covid as well. Just for the show.

 

[artis]

This is just for the show. Putin was very close, handshaking without any facemask the president of Argentina a few days before the invasion, just google Alberto fernandez putin. Granted that president was vaccinated by Sputnik and had gotten covid, it doesn't change the fact that the same treatment was not done with Macron like one or two days later, who was also vaccinated and had gotten Covid as well. Just for the show.

Exactly, and Putin has probably the best medical care available that money and authority can buy so I too am skeptical of the idea that somehow Putin got so scared of Covid that his hiding in a bunker since early 2020.

What is also for show with him is how he has always been "late" to meetings with leaders he despises, I read on average they have waited on him for hours. Then he shows up with a huge hound to meet Merkel because he knows she is afraid of large dogs. etc the list goes on

I wouldn't be surprised if he showed up to a nuclear disarmament meeting with a original replica of the "Tsar bomb" being dragged along on a rolling frame by his staff

 

[Astronuc]

A side-show to Ukraine, but if Russia controls Ukraine, it would put pressure on EU and global markets.

Fortune (March 21) - Fertilizer prices just hit a record high sparking fears of global starvation and the worst food insecurity level since World War II
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fertilizer-prices-just-hit-record-174439996.html

Farmers worldwide are feeling the sting of sanctions, as the Ukraine War has sent fertilizer prices soaring to new all-time highs, prompting concerns over a global food shortage.

Fertilizer prices last week were nearly 10% higher than the week before according to Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index, the highest price point ever recorded. Prices are now 40% higher than a month ago, before the invasion of Ukraine.

The surge in fertilizer prices reveals how dependent many of the world's farms are on Russian exports. Countries already afflicted by food insecurity now risk further production bottlenecks and food shortages at the worst possible time.

 

[pinball1970]

A side-show to Ukraine, but if Russia controls Ukraine, it would put pressure on EU and global markets.

Fortune (March 21) - Fertilizer prices just hit a record high sparking fears of global starvation and the worst food insecurity level since World War II
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fertilizer-prices-just-hit-record-174439996.html

There is China to consider regarding Economic dependency also.

https://www.reuters.com/business/pressed-choose-sides-ukraine-china-trade-favors-west-2022-03-21/

 

[DennisN]

A geography lesson :

 

[pinball1970]

A keen plane spotter a friend of a friend as spotted extensive manoeuvres of fighter jets in the lake district…
Could be part of the normal yearly timetable or they could have added a few recently.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...flying-training-timetable-14-to-18-march-2022

USA is on DEFCOM level 3 apparently

UK threat level is “substantial” but that is relating to terror is my understanding, our war readiness is via R number, R0 being immediate readiness

Interesting article from November 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...y-for-war-with-russia-says-armed-forces-chief

 

[pinball1970]

Hyde pub Greater Manchester (now)
Image below. We get it, even us northerners.
There was a demo Manchester center too last Saturday. A Ukraine flag on the Queen Victoria statue. Manchester Ukrainian children. Stop the war.
You cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Whoever said that was not aware of Twitter YouTube and Instagram but I think his sentiment would be far stronger had he known.

 

[Rive]

Just a stray thought. Belarus may be closer to a coup than Russia.

 

[bob012345]

Just a stray thought. Belarus may be closer to a coup than Russia.

Perhaps, as its government moves closer to direct involvement in Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...elarus-war-citizens-dont-want-putin-sanctions

 

[bob012345]

Ukraine war may lead to a possible global famine?

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu...cedent-even-close-to-this-since-world-war-ii/

 

[artis]

Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"

 

[artis]

Meanwhile in Russia TV, threats to level most of Europe if need be, with English subtitles

 

[phinds]

Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
View attachment 298773

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"

This reminds me of one of the first jokes told by Yakov Smirnoff, the Russian ** standup comic told when he first immigrated to America.

America is such a great country. You have American Express --- "Don't leave home without it."

In Russia, we have Russian Express
"Don't leave home."

**EDIT: He was actually from Ukraine but this was back before the wall fell and it was part of the Soviet Union

 

[artis]

It seems likely due to sanctions some heavy machinery plants like tank factories have run out of some spares in Russia. Now it might just give them more incentive to make everything "in house" as they did back in the USSR, but at least for now the hit can be felt
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-largest-tank-manufacturer-may-132623968.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-unable-make-new-tanks-sanctions-ukraine-claim-2022-3

 

[bob012345]

Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
View attachment 298773

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"

The Big Vlad: two rancid beef patties, special military operation sauce, some random junk on a bun with a sesame seed (1).

The meal deal: The Big Vlad, flies and diluted Vodka.

 

[artis]

The Big Vlad: two rancid beef patties, special military operation sauce, some random junk on a bun with a sesame seed

And to stay true to current Russian military logistics , the whole meal doesn't arrive in time, is missing some ingredients and if you dare to complain to the kitchen then you get 15 years in toilet.

Kremlin's opposition gets a separate menu, main item "Gulag" and it's free - "on the house"
Make Catherine the Great again...

 

[fresh_42]

Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
View attachment 298773

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"

I always asked myself what the prename of McDonald was. Now, we know. Although, Vania is quite uncommon in Scottland.

 

[berkeman]

Oh my goodness, I just got an e-mail from the St. Jude Hospital organization (who I support annually) about their efforts in this terrible situation. Here is a link to the web version; I will likely send them an extra donation...

https://view.campaigns.stjude.org/?...fe7714b9c1745a67414b28f3a76802d56e3e6491cc540

 

[fresh_42]

Oh my goodness, I just got an e-mail from the St. Jude Hospital organization (who I support annually) about their efforts in this terrible situation. Here is a link to the web version; I will likely send them an extra donation...

https://view.campaigns.stjude.org/?...fe7714b9c1745a67414b28f3a76802d56e3e6491cc540

View attachment 298778

I just (10 minutes ago) read in the news ticker of a news channel that Russians bomb particularly hospitals and doctors' offices. Barbaric. I hope Putin will end up in The Hague.

And it is not only the severely ill children. I have also seen a couple here who organized a shelter for some disabled Ukrainians. It's always the weakest who suffer first and most.

 

[bob012345]

I just (10 minutes ago) read in the news ticker of a news channel that Russians bomb particularly hospitals and doctors' offices. Barbaric. I hope Putin will end up in The Hague.

How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?

 

[fresh_42]

How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?

With nowadays weapons? 100% intentionally.

 

[berkeman]

How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?

Through my EMS training, I have some anti-terrorist training and yes, schools and hospitals are specifically targeted by terrorists. Possibly Putin's training in the KGB is part of his planning and approval of targets...

 

[bob012345]

One question that I wonder about is this, the Ukrainian forces surely have some capability to lob a conventional weapon into Russia but they don't. My though is they restrain because they do not want to give any justification to Putin for his actions and because they are fighting a defensive war on the moral high ground.

 

[fresh_42]

One question that I wonder about is this, the Ukrainian forces surely have some capability to lob a conventional weapon into Russia but they don't. My though is they restrain because they do not want to give any justification to Putin for his actions and because they are fighting a defensive war on the moral high ground.

I'm not so sure. All missiles that has been leftover from USSR went probably to Russia together with the nuclear weapons. And they likely haven't thought about an attack from their former brothers, and certainly not from the west.

 

[bob012345]

According to this document, the U.S. made security agreements with Ukraine. Does the United States have the legal justification to intervene in Ukraine based on this even though Russia has trashed the treaty?

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Ukraine-Nuclear-Weapons

 

[Astronuc]

Kremlin lashes out at Poland for siding with Ukraine​

https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-lashes-out-at-poland-for-siding-with-ukraine-134545060.html

Poland’s surprisingly spirited defense of Ukraine would prove “expensive and pointless,” Medvedev predicted, ominously adding that he was confident that Warsaw would “make the right choice” and embrace Russia again.

Medvedev binged on the Koolaid.

 

[BillTre]

According to this document, the U.S. made security agreements with Ukraine. Does the United States have the legal justification to intervene in Ukraine based on this even though Russia has trashed the treaty?

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Ukraine-Nuclear-Weapons

A.) All that document says is:

The countries promised to respect the sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine.

It says nothing about intervening on Ukraine's behalf in a dispute with someone else.
This is often being misunderstood. It would be good to read it before posting it as a poor rationalization for something.

B.) the US has all the legal justification do whatever it wants with respect to intervening in Ukraine.
Treaty permission is not required.

 

[phinds]

B.) the US has all the legal justification do whatever it wants with respect to intervening in Ukraine.
Treaty permission is not required.

Legality is irrelvant. What is RELEVANT is whether or not it will start WWIII and the consensus seems to be that it would.

 

[bob012345]

A.) All that document says is:

It says nothing about intervening on Ukraine's behalf in a dispute with someone else.
This is often being misunderstood. It would be good to read it before posting it as a poor rationalization for something.

B.) the US has all the legal justification do whatever it wants with respect to intervening in Ukraine.
Treaty permission is not required.

This is what stood out to me when I read the document;

To solidify security commitments to Ukraine, the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on December 5, 1994. A political agreement in accordance with the principles of the Helsinki Accords, the memorandum included security assurances against the threat or use of force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence.

Are you saying this only means that from the U.S. perspective the U.S. promises not to threaten or use force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence?

BTW, I was not rationalizing going to war, I was asking a question.

 

[BillTre]

Are you saying this only means that from the U.S. perspective the U.S. promises not to threaten or use force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence?

Yes. the same goes for the Russians, which obviously is not worth much.