Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[DennisN]

It is one of the constants in any dictatorship so far, that they accused others by what they essentially have been guilty themselves!

I've thought a lot about that during this war on several occasions.

It's almost like we are experiencing psychological projection on a grand scale ("subconscious" or deliberate by the aggressor, or somewhere in between, perhaps, I don't know). Very weird.

 

[artis]

Somebody posted this on twitter, kinda made me think.
You know I think it's the same as with individuals VS large corporations, if you do something wrong as an individual the police and all kinds of agencies almost immediately stop you, but if you do something wrong as a large corporation you are very hard to stop and when it is done finally in many cases you get that "off ramp" that we are talking about for Putin...
So there is safety in "numbers" as they say , especially if you can hide behind them

 

[wrobel]

Soviet TV propaganda had never gone down till the level of contemporary Russian TV.
In USSR they said: American imperialists are bad guys but ordinary american people are good. Contemporary propaganda translates pure hate. I feel ill after 5 minutes watching TV.

 

[DennisN]

So there is safety in "numbers" as they say , especially if you can hide behind them

Well, I think it should not be forgotten that the guy on the right also has a lot more military capabilities (including a substantial nuclear arsenal) at his disposal, compared to what the guy on the left had.

 

[artis]

Well, I think it should not be forgotten that the guy on the right also has a lot more military capabilities (including a substantial nuclear arsenal) at his disposal.

Yes Putins army both personal and Russian official sure does give him almost endless immunity, but I think it is true in the general sense even without nuclear weapons, that it is much harder to bring judgement to a leader of a huge organization or country than it is to do to a smaller group or an individual.

If Bin Laden was say the head of North Korea rather than a radical hiding in a house somewhere in Pakistan he too would be harder to eliminate. Kadafi organized terrorist attacks on foreign soil and it took much longer to rid him, Saudi Arabia is known to have done some dirty stuff and they almost fly under the radar because their an ally of US, so it's not exactly that there is always justice elsewhere not just with respect to Russia-Ukraine.

 

[fresh_42]

Well, I think it should not be forgotten that the guy on the right also has a lot more military capabilities (including a substantial nuclear arsenal) at his disposal, compared to what the guy on the left had.

Plus the fact, that the mean distance between Putin and even his faithful dog is meanwhile 10 meters and counting.

The other guy lived in a dirt hole at the end of the world, not in a military compound surrounded by 20,000,000 people.

 

[artis]

Meanwhile it seems someone slipped some numbers, either accidentally or on purpose.
Russian tabloid for a brief moment had this, this figure of nearly 10k dead sounds like a realistic number given the huge bloodshed that has happened so far on both sides

 

[DennisN]

Yes Putins army both personal and Russian official sure does give him almost endless immunity, but I think it is true in the general sense even without nuclear weapons, that it is much harder to bring judgement to a leader of a huge organization or country than it is to do to a smaller group or an individual.

If Bin Laden was say the head of North Korea instead of a radical hiding in a house somewhere in Pakistan he too would be harder to eliminate.

I agree. Also, I would say that the risk of various political consequences (etc) for eliminating leaders of countries goes up significantly compared to eliminating terrorist leaders/terrorist groups.

For instance the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 (though not a leader, but an heir
to the Austro-Hungarian throne) sparked various tragic events that led to World War I.

 

[Rive]

someone slipped some numbers

Another one, on 'who knows' level:

However, the numbers seems to fit without the paramilitary/mercenary unit losses: around 10000 soldiers, and some more.
It would mean that Ukraine did the count exceptionally well.
Also, together with some 'assumed number of wounded' out of the picture it could imply that the original ~ 190k troops are actually can be on the verge of collapse.

 

[fresh_42]

... the risk of various political consequences (etc) for eliminating leaders ...

Sounds easier than it actually is. Hitler survived two serious assassination attempts by pure luck. And Putin with his paranoia is far more cautious.

 

[Jarvis323]

Ukraine’s ”sin” was seeking stronger relations with the West. Even if it had followed your suggestions, Putin would have found another excuse.

Maybe these are factors which contributed.

What happened in Ukraine that led directly to this war is the following in my current understanding:

(1) A Russia backed politician won the Ukraine presidency through what Ukraine's supreme court ruled to be a fraudulent election.

(2) His competitor was installed as the president after Russia's guy was ousted. He was poisoned, but he survived.

(3) Russia labeled the ousting as a coup, and used propaganda to help them respond by fueling and funding an insurrection, which took hold the eastern more Russian speaking territories.

(4) In the rest of Ukraine, anti-Russian sentiment was reinforced in response through media and policies.

(5) Zelensky was elected in what many Ukrainians consider to be their first ever truly democratically elected president. His platform was neither anti-Russian, nor pro-Russian, just anti-corruption.

(6) Russia's interest in Ukraine is largely to have control industries in Ukraine.

Putin became fed up with trying so many other tactics to gain control. So he just decided to invade.

 

[phinds]

Putin is definitely channeling Hitler and Goebbels.

And Orwell.

 

[phinds]

(6) Russia's interest in Ukraine is largely to have control industries in Ukraine.

I think that's wrong. That might be a distant third reason but the two main reasons are (1) to have a buffer between Russia proper and NATO and (2) to capture all of the gas and oil reserves that belong to Ukraine (they are massive).

 

[fresh_42]

And Orwell.

Not really. There have been many despots better than Putin. Animal Farm described communism, and 1984 a surveillance society. Both have been practiced by actual communistic regimes better than Putin is able to control private communications nowadays. E.g. WhatsApp is still online.

 

[Astronuc]

I think that's wrong. That might be a distant third reason but the two main reasons are (1) to have a buffer between Russia proper and NATO and (2) to capture all of the gas and oil reserves that belong to Ukraine (they are massive).

Well, the oil/gas industry is one of many, but clearly, capture of ALL Ukrainian industry and resources, is a huge incentive, and control of trade and transportation, and huge agricultural. A second, and perhaps equally important goal is to prevent Ukraine from becoming part of EU/NATO, after which the goal of controlling Ukraine is no go. A third goal is to prevent Ukraine from being a successful and thriving democracy and open society, something that is anathema to Putin and his corrupt cohorts. Imagine how many young Russians would leave Russia for Ukraine, if Ukraine was a free and open society.

And Putin is simply a paranoid, delusional narcissistic psychopath, with plenty of enablers.

 

[phinds]

Not really. There have been many despots better than Putin.

I was referring to his calling things the opposite of what they are and accusing his enemies of doing what he does.

 

[fresh_42]

I was referring to his calling things the opposite of what they are and accusing his enemies of doing what he does.

Sounds familiar?

 

[Bystander]

I was referring to his calling things the opposite of what they are and accusing his enemies of doing what he does.

Sounds familiar?

A politician?

 

[fresh_42]

A politician?

I know several examples. One was Hitler but I hesitate to call him a politician. Or Ulbricht: "Nobody has the intention to build a wall!" Putin is just an extreme example.

 

[fresh_42]

Or Ulbricht [GDR]: "Nobody has the intention to build a wall!" [A week before he actually built the wall in Berlin.]

Just heard on tv:

French authorities have seized the yacht (€ 530,000,000) of the owner of Rosneft as it was preparing to leave the harbor.

A German yacht spotter observed that Putin's yacht had left its German dockyard although work wasn't finished two weeks prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Honni soit qui mal y pense.

 

[StevieTNZ]

'It's coming' - US warns of Russian cyberattacks amid Ukraine war​

US President Joe Biden on Monday urged US companies to make sure their digital doors are locked tight because of “evolving intelligence” that Russia is considering launching cyberattacks against critical infrastructure targets as the war in Ukraine continues.

Addressing corporate CEOs at their quarterly meeting, Biden told the business leaders they have a “patriotic obligation” to harden their systems against such attacks. He said federal assistance is available, should they want it, but that the decision is theirs alone.

Biden said the administration has issued “new warnings that, based on evolving intelligence, Russia may be planning a cyberattack against us. ... The magnitude of Russia's cyber capacity is fairly consequential, and it's coming."

The president said the federal government is “doing its part” to prepare for an attack and warned the private-sector CEOs that it also is in the national interest that they do the same.

“I would respectfully suggest it’s a patriotic obligation for you to invest as much as you can” in technology to counter cyberattacks, Biden told members of the Business Roundtable. “We’re prepared to help you, as I said, with any tools and expertise we possess, if you’re ready to do that. But it’s your decision as to the steps you’ll take and your responsibility to take them, not ours.”

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/30054...arns-of-russian-cyberattacks-amid-ukraine-war

 

[StevieTNZ]

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reveals 'compromise' he might accept to end invasion​

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has revealed a "compromise" that could end the war with Russia, which has now been dragging on for almost a month.

Speaking to his nation's public broadcaster Suspilne today, Zelenskyy suggested Ukraine could live with not seeking Nato membership.

"Nato should either say now that they are accepting us, or openly say they are not accepting us because they are afraid of Russia. Which is true," he argued.

"And then we need to calm down and say OK, there are Nato member countries that can provide us security guarantees without membership in Nato.

"That is where the compromise exists. That's where the end of the war is."

-- https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ru...t-to-end-invasion/N5BVET3SP5D6TGR2TGYDRRZIK4/

 

[DennisN]

Wow, I just saw a stunning clip from a short interview from 2019 with the Ukrainian Oleksiy Arestovych, apparently before Zelenskyy became elected president of Ukraine.
(I saw it referenced in another video I was looking at).

Mindboggingly accurate prediction. Is/was he just incredibly talented or did he use some ancient magic spell of foresight, one wonders... :)

Oleksiy Arestovych and his prediction of Russian aggression (2019)


(the original, longer interview is here, but without subtitles)

 

[Klystron]

Just heard on tv:
...
Honni soit qui mal y pense.

Google xlate yields: Shame on anyone who thinks wrong.

Psychology Today says this is meant to humiliate an absolute narcissist. Presumably, sociopaths do not feel shame. Normal people should be proud of our human fallibility.

 

[Filip Larsen]

Seems like the Ukrainians are able to put the Starlink's they got to good use:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/18/elon-musks-starlink-helping-ukraine-win-drone-war/

Must be working too since the Russians "in charge" are whining like a rapist raving about bystanders that keep trying to interfere with his rape while at the same time calling for his rapist buddies to come over to help hold down the victim.

 

[PeroK]

I was referring to his calling things the opposite of what they are and accusing his enemies of doing what he does.

1984 was about a global order involving three competing totalitarian powers who were in perpetual war against each other. To reach that scenario would need Russia to overrun all of Europe, the US to be taken over by a right-wing coup, say, and China to make up the third. That said, we have potentially more than three with the Islamic world on the one hand, and India transforming into a Hindu dictatorship.

Whether perpertual war is needed or not, that would be the end of personal liberty and all of humanity would live under a dictatorship of one sort or another.

And government of the people, for the people, by the people will have perished from the Earth.

 

[artis]

Wow, I just saw a stunning clip from a short interview from 2019 with the Ukrainian Oleksiy Arestovych, apparently before Zelenskyy became elected president of Ukraine.
(I saw it referenced in another video I was looking at).

Mindboggingly accurate prediction. Is/was he just incredibly talented or did he use some ancient magic spell of foresight, one wonders... :)

Oleksiy Arestovych and his prediction of Russian aggression (2019)


(the original, longer interview is here, but without subtitles)

I hate to break it to you, but even seeing the full video some weeks ago when all of this started and videos like that were suddenly jumping up through the algorithms in youtube, it wasn't that big of a surprise here.
The west I believe refused to believe mostly that anything like this would happen till the last moment , here on the other hands most of our local experts and civilians alike (those that follow Russia more closely) knew this was imminent.
The simple reason is this, there was no way Kremlin would have allowed the "fall" of Ukraine into EU or NATO.
Zelensky pre war was basically doing just that , constantly going to places and asking when they will take them into NATO etc.
Then when the Russians started their army "training" near the border people started packing their 72h bags, why? Because the previous military drills "zapad"happened in late summer, this time they started moving in troops around Xmas, packed them up right through New year and then finally moved in in February, probably would have sooner but it seems Xi Jinping kindly asked to not destroy his TV time during the Olympics.

See here for example
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/31/politics/biden-volodymyr-zelensky-call-ukraine/index.html

I think Putin was rather open about his plans before invasion,

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrai...elensky-biden-told-him-to-prepare-for-impact/

senior Ukrainian official as saying that Zelensky received dire warnings from Biden that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is now “virtually certain” once the ground freezes and that Kyiv needs to “prepare for impact.”

 

[artis]

 

[DennisN]

I read this comment on a youtube video:

"
– How do you build a small army?
– Start with a large one and invade Ukraine.
"

 

[artis]

Well speaking in stock exchange terminology it seems to me that Russia thought Ukraine to be on it's "way out" and decided to "short sell" it, most of the world also didn't think much of Ukraine's stock.
Then Ukrainians took matters in their own hands and "short squeezed" their stock causing a cascade of everyone else updating Ukraine's value in their eyes.

Now Ukraine might turn into Kremlin's "GameStop"...