Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[phinds]

I certainly don't. I'm simply making a commentary, and expressing an opinion in public, in hopes that Ukraine will get more support than it has.

But you state it as "must" but without giving any enforcement mechanism. There IS NO "must" without a specific enforcement mechanism. "I wish" or "I hope" this will happen is one thing (and I would agree w/ you) but "this must happen" is just silly without an enforcement mechanism and there isn't one.

 

[Office_Shredder]

. They can't let him do that. I talked to someone with defense connections who told me the Pentagon has hords of ammo and weapons packed and ready to ship but the White House is dragging their feet. I get the feeling that the State Dept. just doesn't like the concept of winning a war. How many ways can the Biden Administration snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

As far as I can tell, there is no evidence that Ukraine's current problem is a lack of weapons and ammunition for their infantry, and plenty of video evidence that they are very well equipped. The larger weapon systems are mostly non transferable - you can't give them an Abrams tank because no one there knows how to use once.

The stuff about transferring fighter planes from Poland earlier was unfortunate, but also they probably aren't as effective as the drones they have been receiving since the drones more easily evade anti aircraft measures.

The amount of weaponry the us and other countries are delivering is enormous. It wouldn't surprise me if the us had 6 months of weapon shipments packed up and ready to go, but that doesn't mean you want to, or even are capable of, delivering it in one shot

 

[morrobay]

But you state it as "must" but without giving any enforcement mechanism. There IS NO "must" without a specific enforcement mechanism. "I wish" or "I hope" this will happen is one thing (and I would agree w/ you) but "this must happen" is just silly without an enforcement mechanism and there isn't one.

The .50 cal sniper rifle is effective at one mile away.

 

[phinds]

The .50 cal sniper rifle is effective at one mile away.

? So what?

 

[bob012345]

I was told by someone from Ukraine that since the war in the separatist regions started ~900,000 men have cycled through the Donbas region fighting who now have military training and are in the fight if they have guns.

 

[phinds]

I was told by someone from Ukraine that since the war in the separatist regions started ~900,000 men have cycled through the Donbas region fighting who now have military training and are in the fight if they have guns.

Huh? What does that even mean? Are you saying that 900,000 Ukrainian nationals (on the side of Ukraine) have gone through Russian held territory to get military training? You see how that makes no sense?

 

[BWV]

Huh? What does that even mean? Are you saying that 900,000 Ukrainian nationals (on the side of Ukraine) have gone through Russian held territory to get military training? You see how that makes no sense?

Dont know if its is true, but how is 900K Ukrainians out of a population of ~40M having combat experience during a conflict that has been going on since 2014 unbelievable?

 

[berkeman]

I was told by someone

Huh? What does that even mean?

Oh, c'mon. "Someone" is always a valid source to quote here...

 

[phinds]

Dont know if its is true, but how is 900K Ukrainians out of a population of ~40M having combat experience during a conflict that has been going on since 2014 unbelievable?

I thought you were talking about in the last month, not since 2014

 

[bob012345]

Huh? What does that even mean? Are you saying that 900,000 Ukrainian nationals (on the side of Ukraine) have gone through Russian held territory to get military training? You see how that makes no sense?

I was told by a Ukrainian fellow that over the last several years that many men have been to fight in the Donbas region for Ukraine against the Russian backed separatists. Obviously they were trained by the Ukraine military in their own territory.

 

[phinds]

I was told by a Ukrainian fellow that over the last several years that many men have been to fight in the Donbas region for Ukraine against the Russian backed separatists. Obviously they were trained by the Ukraine military in their own territory.

As I said, I misunderstood your original statement to mean during the last month. This is much more believable although if you are still contending it's 900,000 it still seems a very high number. "Many" is easily believable. So would be "quite a few" and "a lot" and so forth

 

[bob012345]

Oh, c'mon. "Someone" is always a valid source to quote here...

Sorry but I am just relating a personal experience which you can accept or reject. In the group I associate with one man is from Ukraine and has been in constant contact with relatives there every day and another man is from Belarus (but supports Ukraine).

 

[bob012345]

As I said, I misunderstood your original statement to mean during the last month. This is much more believable although if you are still contending it's 900,000 it still seems a very high number. "Many" is easily believable. So would be "quite a few" and "a lot" and so forth

Well, one can find almost anything on Wikipedia ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combatants_of_the_war_in_Donbas#:~:text=At least 50 pro-Ukrainian,and Oleh Lyashko's militia.

I noted this part under Ukrainian combatants;

In 2016, Ukraine was struggling to recruit conscript servicemen, due to significant evasion of conscription, to replace demobilising soldiers including volunteers. This followed negative publicity about nutrition and equipment deficiencies in the conflict zone.[102] By mid-April 2016, 127,363 soldiers and volunteers had received veteran status.[103]

By February 2018, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were larger and better equipped than ever before, numbering 200,000 active-service military personnel and most of the volunteer soldiers of the territorial defence battalions have been integrated into the official Ukrainian army.[104]

So if there were ~125k in 2016 after 2 years of conflict, there could be a lot more now.

 

[phinds]

Well, one can find almost anything on Wikipedia ...

Does that include anything stating 900,000 ... ?

 

[bob012345]

Does that include anything stating 900,000 ... ?

I can't find that exact number but am getting closer. This reference claims hundreds of thousands;

 

[Astronuc]

I like to read your posts. In my mind when I read your "Putin must" comments, I substitute words to the effect, "The Russian Federation should develop free and fair elections that represent all the people".

A common goal democratic countries strive to achieve despite opposition and setbacks.

That's what I have in mind.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

I was told by a Ukrainian fellow that over the last several years that many men have been to fight in the Donbas region for Ukraine against the Russian backed separatists. Obviously they were trained by the Ukraine military in their own territory.

I personally knew that you were referring to the period from 2014 and on. It wouldn't surprise me if the number were that high, because it would make sense to send all newly recruited active and reservist military to a conflict nearby as part of basic training, if only briefly, and it appears as if there are a couple of bases nearby. Russia also used Donbas as a training ground, just as it used Syria.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

May I ask: Switzerland is not a member of NATO and it does not care that NATO is around. Why Putin does?

Even Hitler wouldn't dare try Switzerland, even though he wanted it. The Swiss aren't worried about anyone. They have plenty of old bunkers, secret air bases hidden in the Alps, and will make it impossible for anyone to invade by land if they begin to try- by blowing up all the entrances into the country. It would be the hardest country on Earth to take.

Putin is paranoid and doesn't live in reality.

 

[artis]

I agree about the weapons thing, Ukraine would benefit from more of them. Holding current positions is already hard but starting to push back will need even more firepower.

you can't give them an Abrams tank because no one there knows how to use once.

Well I think you would be amazed at how fast they learn, people tend to do that when everything is on the line for them. I think the reason they aren't getting all these nice things and did not get the Mig's on top is because NATO is trying to play the plausible deniability game. Pretty much the same tactics Russia used for 2014 invasion. They supply weapons that are hard to trace and easy to deny.

The drone thing is easier because Ukraine is buying those.
Hmm but then I wonder, what if Ukraine simply decides to buy other weapon systems? In theory they can do that and it doesn't count as NATO support.

 

[Fervent Freyja]

I think that when Putin strikes Ukraine with a low-yield tactical nuke then NATO will finally give them the air support that they've requested. Russia has lost in conventional warfare and they will attempt to "escalate to de-escalate".

NATO is struggling because many members are still stuck on appeasing Putin. Old habits die hard. There is plenty of evidence to backup reasoning for sending in more air support; such as, attacking with hypersonic missiles, thermobaric bombs in civilian areas, possibly phosphorus bombs, and the new agreement that Belarus will host Russia's nuclear weapons. How much worse can it get? The Budapest Memorandum requires the US to deliver "appropriate assistance" to Ukraine in the event that Russia invades, so as Putin escalates then the level of assistance from the US should as well. The US can cite that they are assisting by delivering air support equipment independently from NATO because they are honoring the agreement while Russia did not. Putin should not argue with that. There is no acceptable reason for why the US is not circumventing the issue of air support. Fighter jets and drones can always be paired with "volunteers" that are ex-military experts in operating whatever they send.

You don't need plausible deniability for Putin to act retarded. He blames the West for everything anyway. He does what he wants regardless of it being reasonable or not.

 

[Oldman too]

A few casual observations.

"Russia also used Donbas as a training ground" That checks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_separatist_forces_in_Donbas
It is widely believed that the separatists are supported by the Russian Armed Forces. Ukraine, the United States, and some analysts consider 1st and 2nd Army Corps to be Russian formations under the command of the 8th Combined Arms Army, which was formed in 2017 in Novocherkassk, Rostov oblast.
Does a double take upon reading the beginning of that last link... "Russian separatist forces in Donbas are militias and armed volunteer groups" Where do I remember that game plan from.

"whenPutin strikes Ukraine with a low-yield tactical nuke" I just don't want to go there right now.

"They supply weapons that are hard to trace and easy to deny." This would be an exception to that rule.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system
"According to the JIT, the Buk that was used originated from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the Russian Federation and had been transported from Russia on the day of the crash,"

"There is no acceptable reason for why the US is not circumventing the issue of air support." I wasn't even aware of the Budapest Memorandum, That changes my view, why isn't this in the mainstream news?
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/

"Fighter jets and drones can always be paired with "volunteers" that are ex-military experts in operating whatever they send." See first link provided, it's a very old game plan.

"You don't need plausible deniability for Putin to act retarded. He blames the West for everything anyway. He does what he wants regardless of it being reasonable or not." Agreed, although a political party in the U.S. has in the past thirty years, re-engineered that into "plausible lie-ability.

 

[artis]

"They supply weapons that are hard to trace and easy to deny." This would be an exception to that rule.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system
"According to the JIT, the Buk that was used originated from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the Russian Federation and had been transported from Russia on the day of the crash,"

Yes and from what I recall reading in the Russian sites back when it happened is that many in Moscow were rather angry about their supported guys blatant mistake. There was some fury going on. Sure enough Moscow did not admit guilt publicly but it definitely wasn't in their intentions back then to escalate this needlessly that I am sure of. I think what happened is they supplied weapons including the Buk to the separatists but not all of them are/were well trained Russian army members. Some were some were not and they just "locked in" the wrong target. I don't want to make this sound apologetic, it was a war crime but the reality is it was a war crime made by a stupid mistake because people who did not have enough experience operating a complex weapons system aimed at the wrong target.

This is unlike the historical KAL 007 incident back in 1983 where the Boeing was shot down intentionally.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

I wasn't even aware of the Budapest Memorandum, That changes my view, why isn't this in the mainstream news?

I think everybody realizes that it has lost all meaning. Why? Well because EU and US did pretty much nothing back in 2014 when this started.
Anyway you do know what it would mean if they upheld that memorandum part , they would have to have a direct war with Russia either way. It just seems to me nobody wants that, not even now.

 

[Rive]

I recall reading in the Russian sites back when it happened is that many in Moscow were rather angry about their supported guys blatant mistake.

Erm. A weapon system of that complexity is not something a random 'supported guy' can use.
I think it's highly probable that the actual user was present somewhere in the registry of the Russian army.

 

[artis]

Erm. A weapon system of that complexity is not something a random 'supported guy' can use.
I think it's highly probable that the actual user was present somewhere in the registry of the Russian army.

Well I'm afraid we won't know the actual answers to details like that, all we know is the Buk system came from Russian territory and that Russian government and military organized the operations in 2014. How much was then given to local militiamen is up to speculation. There were some rather "interesting" characters that played a role in the 2014 operations. One of them is this guy,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

 

[Borg]

When I saw the 900K Ukrainian soldiers number earlier, I did previously see a number like that but not in that context. It was listed as the total number of Ukrainian reserves on this Wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

 

[Office_Shredder]

Well I think you would be amazed at how fast they learn, people tend to do that when everything is on the line for them. I think the reason they aren't getting all these nice things and did not get the Mig's on top is because NATO is trying to play the plausible deniability game. Pretty much the same tactics Russia used for 2014 invasion. They supply weapons that are hard to trace and easy to deny.

But nobody is denying or hiding the weapons they are giving Ukraine, so what's your point? The mig thing I weakly suspect got blown up because they did want to deny giving Ukraine those planes.

The drone thing is easier because Ukraine is buying those.

The US is also giving Ukraine free drones.

 

[Isopod]

Well I think you would be amazed at how fast they learn, people tend to do that when everything is on the line for them. I think the reason they aren't getting all these nice things and did not get the Mig's on top is because NATO is trying to play the plausible deniability game. Pretty much the same tactics Russia used for 2014 invasion. They supply weapons that are hard to trace and easy to deny.

But nobody is denying or hiding the weapons they are giving Ukraine, so what's your point? The mig thing I weakly suspect got blown up because they did want to deny giving Ukraine those planes.
The US is also giving Ukraine free drones.
[/QUOTE]

The UK also gave Ukraine 3, 615 free anti-tank weapons earlier this month: https://metro.co.uk/2022/03/09/uk-p...apons-as-soldiers-in-kyiv-get-ready-16246348/

Video of Ukrainian soldier thanking the queen for her gift:



Footage of Russians being forced to flee tank after it is ambushed from multiple directions:

 

[bob012345]

When I saw the 900K Ukrainian soldiers number earlier, I did previously see a number like that but not in that context. It was listed as the total number of Ukrainian reserves on this Wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

Thanks, that's probably what he meant. Reservists are already trained. Not to mention president Zelensky's general mobilization of all males between 18 and 60 is a lot more potential fighters.

 

[Astronuc]

Ex-separatist leader calls Russian attack on Ukraine a mistake​

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-separatist-leader-calls-russian-135308442.html

LONDON (Reuters) - One of the architects of the Moscow-backed separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine eight years ago said Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a mistake, in comments that show the Kremlin cannot count on support from all pro-Russian opponents of Kyiv.

Alexei Alexandrov was one of the leaders of a movement in 2014 to reject Kyiv's rule and create an autonomous pro-Moscow territory in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, triggering a war against Ukrainian government forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russia attacked Ukraine last month in part to protect the separatist territory from Kyiv, though Western states say that is a pretext for an unprovoked land grab.

In an interview with Reuters last Friday, Alexandrov said: "All this could have been resolved earlier, mainly through diplomatic means and perhaps an insignificant use of force. But that was not done, and that is a mistake on all sides."

He said that because Moscow failed to negotiate a settlement with Kyiv guaranteeing autonomy for the Donbas and rights for its residents, by the start of this year armed conflict became unavoidable.

 

[artis]

Ex-separatist leader calls Russian attack on Ukraine a mistake​

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-separatist-leader-calls-russian-135308442.html

Well he may think so but I think Putin had other plans in mind than just negotiating peace and autonomy for a small part of Ukraine. Either he is lying or he fails to understand the grandness of Moscow's plans.