Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[artis]

I want to put out an example, a proven one, on how modern easy access software, AI tools and computers can manipulate footage and create lies. Arguably this is a simplistic attempt but I'm sure there have been more sophisticated fabrications out there. I will try to be short.
Yesterday I saw in a local news coverage a somewhat low resolution video and the claim was that it shows how Ukrainian fighters have shot down 4 Russian attack helicopters like "one by one" , it didn't sound right. I mean glory to Ukraine..., but that much luck, really?
Then it seems the source came from Ukraine's ministry of defense itself (no wonder the news were so chill about retelling the story) Later the ministry deleted the tweet but as with most info nowadays many already had saved the tweet , so here is the tweet.
Here a Ukrainian news agency still has the wrong info displayed
https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/817429.html

Near Kherson this morning, air defense crews of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine masterfully eliminated four K-52 helicopters of the Russian Armed Forces

Here is the video originally used by Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in their twitter story
And here is the same video , uploaded days before any of this happened , clearly stating that this is a video game "ARMA-3", the footage is pure CGI.
Seems like now Ukraine claims just 1 shot helicopter and it's not mentioned where it happened
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/03/24/operational-information-on-06-00-24-03-2022-regarding-the-russian-invasion/
This is the same thing as with the numbers. Ukraine claimed about 10k killed Russian soldiers already by the end of first week of war, then from more trustworthy sources we now know that only now after 4 weeks of fighting about 10k soldiers have died , maybe more, NATO current upper number is 14k.
I have also noticed that the same attacked and destroyed column has been shown more than one time but each time the claim is it's a different one in a different place.

I mean I understand the need to "keep up the spirits" but I don't agree that lying is the way to do it, especially when truth and justice is already on your side.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Counting casualties is not an easy task. If three people each shoot a tank, and then they each report killing the three Russians inside of it, you've over counted by a factor of 3. If someone shoots a tank, but it was empty, you over counted by a factor of infinity. The Ukrainian number was a bit high at first probably, but nothing out of the ordinary when doing these kinds of things. The current Ukrainian number is 16k, which is not that far from the NATO guess. And there's no specific reason to think the NATO guess is 100% accurate, they're just doing the best with the info they have.

 

[vela]

Here's a hopeful take from Eliot Cohen in The Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven. The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance. Such a total would represent at least 15 percent of the entire invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefingunsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day.​

 

[Klystron]

When I first left home for war, my war veteran father and uncles warned me about misinformation, intentional and simply due to lack of authentic data. Misunderstandings abound.

Consider this comment "Russian forces in Ukraine have no NCO's". Incorrect.

https://military-history.fandom.com...tion?msclkid=4d34c24bac6b11ec9380b6983677aee5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_ranks_and_insignia_of_the_Russian_Federation

Perhaps, the 2010 insignia changes where senior NCOs changed from flashy shoulder boards to small dark stripes, confused commenters into thinking everyone not an officer was a private.

March 11, 2010, by virtue of Law No.2010-293 of the President of Russia, a new set of rank insignia debuted. Privates, Airmen and Seamen sport plain shoulder epaulettes and the chevrons removed for the ranks of senior NCOs and are now replaced by plain bars (small horizontal from Corporal/Senior Airman/Leading Seaman to Sergeant/Staff Sergeant/Petty Officer increasing by seniority, large horizontal for Staff Sergeants, Flight Sergeants and Chief Petty Officers, and vertical bars for Starshinas and Ship CPO's), mirroring Imperial Russian Army and 1970s Soviet Army insignia.

I often simulated a Soviet senior technical Starshina during NATO war games, with considerable authority in the field. Senior NCO's move around regularly during mobile exercises, giving the impression of unsupervised privates. Also, the new insignia may go unnoticed, as intended.

 

[bob012345]

When I first left home for war, my war veteran father and uncles warned me about misinformation, intentional and simply due to lack of authentic data. Misunderstandings abound.

Consider this comment "Russian forces in Ukraine have no NCO's". Incorrect.

https://military-history.fandom.com...tion?msclkid=4d34c24bac6b11ec9380b6983677aee5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_ranks_and_insignia_of_the_Russian_Federation

Perhaps, the 2010 insignia changes where senior NCOs changed from flashy shoulder boards to small dark stripes, confused commenters into thinking everyone not an officer was a private.
I often simulated a Soviet senior technical Starshina during NATO war games, with considerable authority in the field. Senior NCO's move around regularly during mobile exercises, giving the impression of unsupervised privates. Also, the new insignia may go unnoticed, as intended.

Obviously there has been some hype on both sides as to be expected but if the Russians have been clever in Ukraine I see little evidence of it so far. Perhaps their master plan is to appear so incompetent as to mislead the Ukrainians and then when they have them where they want them, at the point of victory, sweep in for the kill.

 

[geordief]

, sweep in for the kill.

Or swoop in for the krill(unless that was Finland)

 

[Klystron]

Obviously there has been some hype on both sides as to be expected but if the Russians have been clever in Ukraine I see little evidence of it so far. Perhaps their master plan is to appear so incompetent as to mislead the Ukrainians and then when they have them where they want them, at the point of victory, sweep in for the kill.

Bob has brought up an interesting point different than my comment about identifying NCOs based on uniform insignia.

Several senior NATO officers visiting 'aggressor' sites after missions discussed how well organized we (US aggressors) acted and communicated over long distances even in the midst of countermeasures including intense jamming.

We simulated the best Soviet systems mid 1970's using refurbished equipment, emulated some of what we knew of Soviet deployment limitations such as poor clothing and rations, but we were highly trained volunteers with experienced NCOs, employing some tricky applied mathematics that likely far surpassed typical USSR methods.

One can argue that aggressor simulations performed well above typical Soviet deployments, but that made training missions even more valuable. A NATO crew blasted by wily aggressors a few times learned how to survive actual warfare.

This works both ways. Friendly forces could not actually kill us or permanently annihilate our gadgetry. We learned and adapted from each mission, modifying systems faster than an actual enemy bureaucracy would ever allow. Here is the nugget:

American / NATO troops can operate independently using sound judgement. Soviet / Russians rely on rigid top-down command and control structures that inhibit and discourage individual initiative. Current Russian military problems support this hypothesis. Free people are more flexible.

 

[phinds]

Free people are more flexible.

Well, some of us free people have gotten a bit stiff in our old age

 

[bob012345]

Here is the nugget:

American / NATO troops can operate independently using sound judgement. Soviet / Russians rely on rigid top-down command and control structures that inhibit and discourage individual initiative. Current Russian military problems support this hypothesis. Free people are more flexible.

But can they learn and modify their command and control structure? I would have to assume Putin is not going to let this happen again. Perhaps he will practice on Moldova.

 

[Klystron]

But can they learn and modify their command and control structure? I would have to assume Putin is not going to let this happen again. Perhaps he will practice on Moldova.

IDK. I read several papers BItD that indicated the problem was likely cultural. We are taught to question authority, think 'outside the box', form competitive teams that cooperate, think for ourselves but toward a common good. Compromise. Keep an open mind. Adapt to conditions.

None of these concepts apply to everyone but are not contradicted by a university education. Knowing little about Russian Federation education system, authoritative and totalitarian societies do not seem to promote free thinking or independent action. Colleagues from ex-Warsaw Pact countries describe an inflexible heavy handed system from Russia that discouraged change.

 

[Astronuc]

Russian troops reportedly attacked their own commanding officer by running him over with a tank after many in their brigade were killed amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbaliuk said in a post on Facebook that Russian Col. Yuri Medvedev was attacked after fighting in Ukraine left nearly half of the men in the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade dead, The Washington Post reported.

Tsymbaliuk said the brigade injured both of Medvedev's legs by hitting him with a tank, causing him to be hospitalized, according to the newspaper.

https://thehill.com/policy/internat...-own-commanding-officer-after-suffering-heavy

 

[artis]

IDK. I read several papers BItD that indicated the problem was likely cultural. We are taught to question authority, think 'outside the box', form competitive teams that cooperate, think for ourselves but toward a common good. Compromise. Keep an open mind. Adapt to conditions.

None of these concepts apply to everyone but are not contradicted by a university education. Knowing little about Russian Federation education system, authoritative and totalitarian societies do not seem to promote free thinking or independent action. Colleagues from ex-Warsaw Pact countries describe an inflexible heavy handed system from Russia that discouraged change.

I think overall that assessment is correct but generations do change. The average Russian soldier now is in his 20's , that puts his birth date around 2000, he has grown up with internet and a computer and a smart phone in the past 10 years or so.
It is like @wrobel said if you make an official interview sure they say they love Putin and "glory to motherland" but in private I'm sure many of them hate all of that, well if not before the war then definitely now.

I think the main reason why Russia despite having more of everything is losing this war is simply because there is no motivation and point in general for the troops.
You could put two soldiers side by side - a Ukrainian and a Russian and you couldn't tell them apart in most cases not even by their accent. Well I have met both Russians and Ukrainians in real life and I can't.

You can hear in some of the videos Ukrainian soldiers simply telling Russian ones to "go home"
It's bit surreal it reminds me of those two guys where one is drunk and comes crashing into the other ones bedroom at 4AM in the morning mumbling. Sure enough we do know who has the initiative and who is simply "lost".

 

[BillTre]

You could put two soldiers side by side - a Ukrainian and a Russian and you couldn't tell them apart in most cases not even by their accent. Well I have met both Russians and Ukrainians in real life and I can't.

You can hear in some of the videos Ukrainian soldiers simply telling Russian ones to "go home"
It's bit surreal it reminds me of those two guys where one is drunk and comes crashing into the other ones bedroom at 4AM in the morning mumbling. Sure enough we do know who has the initiative and who is simply "lost".

To me, this is reminiscent many ways of the US Civil War.
Two groups fighting each other (sometimes in the same family), who shared a language, a constitutional government, and a lot of culture.
In the Civil War however, both sides were highly motivated and the very bloody war went on for 4 years.

The Russian solders don't seem so motivated.
I am guessing that the motivation of the Russian home folks, although possibly pretty strong now (due to the state's complete control of mass media) will eventually drop when their lies become more generally obvious.
What effect that might have in the totalitarian Russian state, who knows.

 

[artis]

In the Civil War however, both sides were highly motivated and the very bloody war went on for 4 years.

Exactly, because IIRC south wanted to keep the "status quo" while the north wanted to change and abolish slavery.

The Russian solders don't seem so motivated.
I am guessing that the motivation of the Russian home folks, although possibly pretty strong now (due to the state's complete control of mass media) will eventually drop when their lies become more generally obvious.

You know I have met personally some Russians who are rather passionate about their heritage and motherland to the point where I have to politely explain them some nuances of history as their passion sometimes "rolls over" the hardships and bloodshed that have historically occurred due to their former leaders imperialist ambitions. But there is also one other thing I have noticed. This passion is largely in emotions and words only. It's an armchair "bravado", if you actually told them to go fight in Ukraine or elsewhere for their "heritage" they would sneak away in their premium German sedan and rather drive to whichever country Putin has no grip over.

Sure it's one thing to wave a flag and attach a stupid symbol while being at the comfort of your own city , it;s another thing to actually suffer and die for that same idiotic ideology. I think the conscripts who were robbed of their cell phones and sent from drills on the border directly into Ukraine soon understood this and their motivation was "gone with the wind"

 

[BillTre]

People will sometimes get pissed off, if they realize a family member is killed, due to an institutional lie, even if they are not personally involved in the war.

 

[artis]

People will sometimes get pissed off, if they realize a family member is killed, due to an institutional lie

Just sometimes?

 

[artis]

Lincoln said that "a house divided against itself cannot stand" and that applies to the current US political climate but the same words can be said about the current state of Russian army with regards to Putin and Ukraine, just swap the word "house" for "army"
More and more it seems to me it's the higher ranking folks in Moscow that are much more passionate about this offensive than the "little guy" holding the heavy machine gun on the ground. Although given Putin's fury and the recent rare sightings of some top generals and security people I'm afraid they too might start to question their loyalty.

I think there is another possible interesting turn to this war. Putin might not lose all his home support but he doesn't have to, all that needs to happen is for his troops to largely abandon their effort. So if he doesn't have an army that is willing to listen to him, he then basically becomes who he is in real life "lone and corrupt midget" and his best plan to take Ukraine at that point is to challenge Zelensky to a duel in MMA.

 

[neilparker62]

Paddington re-assessed. (See post #978). With apologies to the original cartoon artist.

 

[Rive]

One more limited credibility news - it's just that it fits really well with the assumed situation.

 

[gleem]

Another Russian General has been reportedly killed bringing up to six the number of generals possibly killed in the war.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538

 

[Office_Shredder]

Another Russian General has been reportedly killed bringing up to six the number of generals possibly killed in the war.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538

The article actually says seven

 

[gleem]

The article actually says seven

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538

"However the death of Maj Gen Magomed Tushayev of the Chechen national guard has been disputed."

My interpretation is that only six are considered probable.

Does Russia have generals to spare or are they doing field commissioning?

 

[Office_Shredder]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60807538My interpretation is that only six are considered probable.

I'm not sure what disputed even means here. I can't find anything what online saying he's alive.

Edit: ah Wikipedia has it
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine

 

[Astronuc]

Business Insider reports - Ukraine captures one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal military secrets, reports say
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...m-seized-ukraine-hold-military-secrets-2022-3

Ukrainian forces have seized part of one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal its military secrets, reports say.

The Krasukha-4 command module was found abandoned on the outskirts of Kyiv partly damaged but otherwise intact, The Times of London reported.
. . .

A complete Krasukha-4 is a two-part system consisting of a command post module and an electronic warfare system, mounted separately on two trucks.
. . .

Meanwhile, Russian forces may be pivoting to occupy E. Ukraine, which will result in a protracted conflict.
https://www.axios.com/russia-donbas-kyiv-military-briefing-20db3a5c-8db5-44b3-b6d2-0a094fb7a49b.html

Russian forces must leave Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea, and Putin must be removed.

 

[artis]

Business Insider reports - Ukraine captures one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal military secrets, reports say

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krasukha_(electronic_warfare_system)

So it's a radio jammer it seems. The thing that interests me is whether they use some special modulated waveform or whether they simply blast the most powerful RF signal you can get from a mobile platform towards a possible target (via a parabolic antenna as it seems) thereby overwhelming the reception and causing either electronics damage or disrupting the original connection causing for a drone to crash for example.

Meanwhile, Russian forces may be pivoting to occupy E. Ukraine, which will result in a protracted conflict.

Well , I'm listening carefully to what the Russians are saying and as things stand now it seems they might resort back to simply grabbing Donbas and Crimea and then negotiating that Ukraine can be Ukraine but those areas need to be incorporated back into Russia.
A local Moscow friendly politician who years ago was regularly traveling to Moscow and had ties to the party "United Russia" has now been elected to EU parliament from our region. He no longer affiliates with Moscow or Putin, not sure about his personal allegiance but still. He also said that this is the "gameplan" now. Given his former friends and their knowledge I would believe him. Also the battlefield situation seems to be heading that direction.

 

[artis]

See the second video, its Russian journalist and state TV pundit Vladimir Solovyov , talking before invasion and now few days ago. To paraphrase what he says , before invasion it was like "we will go and take Ukraine and Kyiv" now he said "we have to understand we are fighting the second biggest army in Europe after ourselves"
Now the "read between the lines" part tells me that if he (being an absolute Putin loyalist and mouthpiece) says something like that on live TV then the mood and expectations have definitely changed for those that know better... sure I don't know what Putin thinks but I don't think his stupid, he must realize that the low morale, the Ukraine hatred for him and the years long corruption has done their part in making his plans go bust.

Here is my own speculation , it might just be that his "off ramp" is claiming he "denazified" Ukraine and took the separatist controlled territories if eventually that is all he can do militarily. Plus the added bonus of Zelensky writing on paper that they won't join NATO or something along those lines.

 

[Astronuc]

To be on the 'right side' of history, Russia must forfeit Donbas and Crimea, and Putin must be removed. Russia must pay a steep penalty for its aggression, i.e., the violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, the mass murder of civilians and the destruction of real property in Ukraine. Nothing short of that is right.

We're already in a low key stage of World War III, since Russia has its allies, and Ukraine has it's allies by virtue of US and EU providing material support to Ukraine while sanctioning Russia. Otherwise, we'll remain in a protracted war until it flares into a larger conflict.

The Russian invasion should have been stopped before it got started.

 

[wrobel]

The Russian invasion should have been stopped before it got started

Appeasement policy has failed again.

 

[neilparker62]

Here is my own speculation , it might just be that his "off ramp" is claiming he "denazified" Ukraine and took the separatist controlled territories if eventually that is all he can do militarily. Plus the added bonus of Zelensky writing on paper that they won't join NATO or something along those lines.

He had better find that "off ramp" quickly - every day brings a new tragedy the latest being that poor little gymnast (11 yrs old) shot in the mouth by Russian soldiers who opened fire on the vehicle she and her family were fleeing in. Adding to the pathos in the child's mother's words: "when they (the Russian soldiers) realized their mistake , they gave her daughter first aid and sent her to a hospital in a nearby (Russian occupied) town."

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/25/ukraine-childrens-hospital-lead-watson-pkg-vpx.cnn

 

[wrobel]

Vladimir Solovyov

that is real hell. I do not think that his barking directly reflects moods in Kremlin