Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

I'm really worried that the situation in Ukraine could result in a war between the US and Russia. Any thoughts?

 

[fresh_42]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heim_ins_Reich
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement

The rest started on 9/1/39. We leap exactly 83 years and 5 months.

 

[mcastillo356]

I would bet there is not going to happen anything. And I would bet a lot of money. It is a personal opinion. Reason: there is not a crazy one going on, like the one we all agree there was.
Regards

 

[fresh_42]

I would bet there is not going to happen anything. And I would bet a lot of money. It is a personal opinion. Reason: there is not a crazy one going on, like the one we all agree there was.
Regards

See my second link.

 

[berkeman]

I'm pretty worried as well. There are a number of scenarios that could end up with some really bad situations. I'm sure both sides have simulated thousands of variations, and I'm sure that at least dozens of them spiral out of control. Remember the closing scene from the movie "War Games"? Hopefully Putin comes to same conclusion as the WOPR did...

Spoiler

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."

https://mygeekwisdom.com/2016/05/21/a-strange-game-the-only-winning-move-is-not-to-play/

Time to hoard vodka...

 

[fresh_42]

History repeats itself. My favorite example is Afghanistan. The British failed (twice), the Soviets failed, and surprise, surprise the US thought they would be better than those, and failed.

My links show the current playbook. "Crazy" is no valid assessment, F60.0 is. And this diagnosis holds true for both of the men @mcastillo356 and Mark Rutte called "crazy". Crazyness wasn't and isn't an issue. F60.0 is.

 

[berkeman]

Have you seen the movie in my Spoiler? It does have an uplifting message at the end. In the middle, not so much...

 

[fresh_42]

Have you seen the movie in my Spoiler? It does have an uplifting message at the end. In the middle, not so much...

I hope such a computer scenario lacks reality because this time we do not have a Stanislav Petrov.

 

[berkeman]

Crazyness wasn't and isn't an issue. F60.0 is.

That's a hard call, IMO. I'm sure the US and NATO intelligence agencies have tried to analyze Putin's motivations, and they have lots more information than we do. I don't see paranoia so much as delusion about how high he can elevate his country and himself.

In the best of worlds, countries work to be equal and respect each other (remember Detente?). In the worst of worlds, a delusional dictator strives to expand the boundaries of the territories that they control (remember the Huns and the Vikings?)...

 

[phinds]

Reason: there is not a crazy one going on, like the one we all agree there was.

What does this mean?

 

[dlgoff]

In the middle, not so much...

Now that's scary.

 

[Keith_McClary]

They are explaining what the sanctions will do to Russia.

I would like to see an analysis of what they will do to others, such as European energy consumers and the US frakking industry.

 

[DennisN]

I am worried too. I've been following the situation closely the last couple of days. Actually I've been concerned ever since Russia took Crimea. But now it has escalated.

As a sidenote I personally suspect that the recent development will increase the support for a future NATO membership among the Swedish and Finnish population. I don't know if/when Sweden will join NATO though. We have a very long history of not being in any military alliance.

 

[StevieTNZ]

My nurse reckons it is simply a distraction from the court case proceeding in Russia over that politician that went to Germany (?) who got poisoned and is facing new charges. Apparently he has quite a following in Russia. I'm not too sure of the particulars as I haven't seen anything in the news about it - though people I've spoken with have seen it in the news and know more about what's going on.

I wouldn't put it past Putin to distract the public eye away from that sort of attention.

 

[strangerep]

One moral of the story: if you've got possession of some nukes in your backyard, don't give them up for anything, especially not for "safety assurances".

Separately, I wonder how the US will cope when China seizes this opportunity and "does a Poo-Tin" on Taiwan.

 

[Filip Larsen]

I worry too, mostly because it is currently not apparent why Putin is doing this so its not clear when he will stop. Since he and the official Russia has had the policy for many years of constantly making obvious false statements (what normal people would call a notorious liar) we cannot really take anything they say at face value, only their actions speak about their true intentions. Also, usually the money trail often shed light about Putin intentions but in this case its not obvious what kind of money he or his friends stands to gain, especially considering the sanctions that they now get in response. One of my personal theories is that the separatists in the contested regions really are the loose cannons they appear to be (constantly trying to stir up a conflict by shooting at their neighbors and themselves) and somehow its reached a point where Putin feel he has to play along or loose internal support for his control. Another theory, as others has mentioned here, could be this is all to divert attention or hamper competition internal in Russia from something, which considering how much he and his friends and financial competitors has to hide, sounds plausible. Or maybe he is just bored, and want the challenge of moving chess pieces around on the board just because he can.

I also worry, like others here, that dictators and regimes around the world with some military muscles now look at what Putin do, e.g. relabeling his invasion forces as "peace-keeping troops" while keeping a straight face on TV, and think this is a feasible way forward if you want to snatch that juicy bordering region that other people (i.e. UN) keep insisting is not your property. Not that this trick is particularly new or only employed by dictators, but usually it is responded to by some military response, even when the invaded country is not a NATO member. I can think of at least a few dictatorships that seems to be very little concerned about getting hit by economic sanctions.

 

[Borek]

Somehow as of today I am not afraid of the conflict getting out of Ukraine any time soon, but it is definitely a very dangerous shift. I feel for my neighbors though, Ukrainian border (the western one) is just about a 3 hours drive from my place

 

[Rive]

I'm really worried that the situation in ukraine could result in a war between the US and Russia.

Regarding relations between US and this new-soviet thing, the most you should expect is a new cold war.

Regarding Ukraine... that's far more difficult. About those two provinces now annexed by the Russian forces: the previous presence of Russian armed forces was always an 'open secret', and Ukraine did not push really hard to get that area back since they did recognize that it's futile. As long as Russia stops at those borders, not much is expected to happen and the ongoing political pressure is rather about to make them stop there than about to make them withdraw.

It's just:
- the provinces at the east has Russian speaking majority
- Russia would prefer to have land access to Crimea.
So, occupation of more provinces is entirely possible and that would mean war between West-Ukraine and Russia.

 

[Astronuc]

My nurse reckons it is simply a distraction from the court case proceeding in Russia over that politician that went to Germany (?) who got poisoned and is facing new charges.

That would Alexei Navalny.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny

I don't believe that is a primary motive. It's more complicated. I'm sure Putin wants to put Ukraine under his thumb.

 

[fresh_42]

Somehow as of today I am not afraid of the conflict getting out of Ukraine any time soon, but it is definitely a very dangerous shift. I feel for my neighbors though, Ukrainian border (the western one) is just about a 3 hours drive from my place

I hope you will be right. However, it is the position the world took in 1938 after Hitler annexed parts of Czechia. And a year later, you know what had happened. I often thought these days, that hopefully, it won't be Poland again, this time from the east.

Putin is a child of the cold war and a KGB officer through and through. One must not forget this. What if he decides to create a Russian corridor to their enclave Kaliningrad? When he annexed Crimea I thought: "Ok, they had to protect their marine base and the population is Russian anyway. And it wasn't the first Russian war about Crimea." I had expected a local annexation of the Russian populated areas of Ukraine. It made sense in a way since Ukraine didn't actually treat the people there like they treated the rest of the country.

But what worries me now, is the huge propaganda war ("Genocide!" really?), the fact that Putin basically said that Ukraine isn't even a country but a Russian province, and most of all: Will he stop?

People thought the same 1938.

 

[Borek]

People thought the same 1938.

I am perfectly aware of similarities. Actually just a few minutes ago I posted on my fb profile writing about how the lingo behind the propaganda behind invasion of the eastern Ukraine is similar to the propaganda after 17th September '39 invasion of the Soviet Union on Poland. But there are also differences: Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union, so in the Russian thinking this is just an internal problem, not an international one.

Plus, as of today we are a member of NATO and we do have NATO units here. Not that it is a serious deterrent, but at least politically it is (hopefully) a game changer.

Unless it is not.

 

[phinds]

I worry too, mostly because it is currently not apparent why Putin is doing this so its not clear when he will stop.

Will he stop?

I think it's apparent why he is doing it (he wants to recreate the Soviet Union or at least as much of it as physically possible) and why WOULD he stop? So far the West has dithered, with internal divisions, and slapped on namby-pamby sanctions that won't slow him down at all. He has a $600 Billion war chest that he's been stockpiling for years in preparation for this.

Losing Nordstream was flea byte to him compared to the thought of annexing the Ukraine.

Until and unless the West is willing to put on hard sanctions (specifically kicking Russia out of the SWIFT system and imposing every other sanction available) he has no reason to stop but that's not likely to happen because Europe would lose a substantial part of its energy supply AND, if I understand it correctly, billions of dollars of loans and investments in Russia.

Does anyone actually think he will stop after Ukraine if the West continues to dither?

 

[Keith_McClary]

(constantly trying to stir up a conflict by shooting at their neighbors and themselves)

This is notably different from the border with Crimea. We will soon see if this changes, although the OSCE observers are pulling out.

1938

If we are going all Godwin, can we also compare with recent recognitions of annexations by other countries?

 

[fresh_42]

If we are going all Godwin, can we also compare with recent recognitions of annexations by other countries?

Not generally, but in this case, it is along the same lines of "justification" (link 1 in post 2). And it is the same narrative China uses towards Taiwan. And the Baltic countries also have significant Russian minorities.

 

[Keith_McClary]

Not generally, but in this case, it is along the same lines of "justification" (link 1 in post 2). And it is the same narrative China uses towards Taiwan. And the Baltic countries also have significant Russian minorities.

I meant US recognition of annexations by Israel. It seems there are different rules for different countries.

Although the “rules-based international order” is central to Australian strategy, what exactly this concept means remains a work very much in progress. (This article is not intended to be satire.)

 

[frost_zero]

I am really not hoping for another global catastrophe caused by nothing but human stupidity so hopefully Russia kindly backs off from Ukraine

 

[gleem]

Article 1 of the UN Charter states the following purposes:

1. To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace;
2. To develop friendly relations among nations based on respect for the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to take other appropriate measures to strengthen universal peace;
3. To achieve international co-operation in solving international problems of an economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian character, and in promoting and encouraging respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms for all without distinction as to race, sex, language, or religion; and
4. To be a center for harmonizing the actions of nations in the attainment of these common ends

It would seem that the UN should have been in the middle of this kerfuffle from the beginning. However considering the Security Council of which Russia is a member basically determines what the UN gets involved in I guess it will just sit on the sideline. Perhaps the UN's charter is not worth the paper on which it is written. If this conflict gets out of hand the UN may go the way of the League of Nations.

 

[mcastillo356]

What does this mean?

Yesterday was a conjecture for hope. Today is the phrase of a naive one, not to say the true, so rough to me. I'm the one who told it.

 

[phinds]

Yesterday was a conjecture for hope. Today is the phrase of a naive one, not to say the true, so rough to me. I'm the one who told it.

I cannot understand either of your posts but don't sweat it --- it's clear that English is not your native language and you're doing the best you can.

 

[fresh_42]

Currently on TV:

It is not possible for the Russian minority in the Baltic countries to have schools in their own language.
Projected to change in 2025 all three countries are still part of the Russian power grid.

These are facts. And they can't calm you down.

 

[gleem]

What particularly worries me is that I expect that Russia has a strategy of fomenting discord in the US which of course we are ripe for.

 

[berkeman]

Thread closed briefly for a Mentor discussion...

 

[berkeman]

Thread re-opened; thank you all for your patience.

So far this thread is doing well and avoiding the PF prohibition against political discussions. That prohibition is meant mainly to prevent arguments between different sides of 50-50 issues (conservative-liberal, democrat-republican, etc.), which will generally not be productive here.

But this thread is mainly about the growing potential for a dangerous military conflict in the Ukraine, with many possible outcomes and bad consequences (especially for the people of the Ukraine).

If there are side discussions that occur in this thread that are more political in nature, those may be deleted or moved to a separate thread. Thanks for you cooperation on this point, and here's hoping that there will not be a large unnecessary loss of life in the Ukraine.

 

[Keith_McClary]

One of my personal theories is that the separatists in the contested regions really are the loose cannons they appear to be (constantly trying to stir up a conflict by shooting at their neighbors and themselves)

 

[hutchphd]

Here's the question that keeps recurring in my head:

Are we safer because Ukraine ceded its Nuclear stockpile?

Sadly I think the answer to this may be no. I still find that answer shocking. But how crazy is crazy?

As a moral issue it seems pretty clear that the west has already vacated the moral high ground, perhaps permanently.

 

[phinds]

As a moral issue it seems pretty clear that the west has already vacated the moral high ground, perhaps permanently.

Although I agree /w you I suggest we not follow that line of discussion since it will inevitably lead to arguments since it is inextricably tied to politics.

 

[DennisN]

I worry too, mostly because it is currently not apparent why Putin is doing this so its not clear when he will stop.

I heard a very interesting input on this in an interview on CNN or MSNBC yesterday which made some sense to me (regretfully I don't have a source for it at the moment, but I think I remembered who said it, so I will try to find a link on the net and post it later*).

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russias action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if Russia was a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

Nevertheless, Putins recent speech about historical grievances in general (with dubious historical accuracy) was worrying to hear.

* Update: I've made an initial search but could not find anything. If I remember correctly the reasoning came from a female author of history books (Ann something, I think).

 

[BillTre]

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russias action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if they were a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

I think Fiona Hill, for one, has been saying this.

 

[DennisN]

I think Fiona Hill, for one, has been saying this.

I think I saw an interview with her too, so it may have been she who said it and not the author I was thinking about. I will do a search on youtube for CNN and MSNBC clips...

 

[russ_watters]

I don't think we need to guess what Putin's motivation is, because he's truthful where it matters. Facts don't matter to him, what's important is what he wants. He's told us, and we should believe him: He wants the USSR/Russian Empire back and Ukraine was part of them. That's it. Everything else is tangential or noise.

 

[hutchphd]

Although I agree /w you I suggest we not follow that line of discussion since it will inevitably lead to arguments since it is inextricably tied to politics.

Perhaps...and folks can respond or not on that basis.
I am old enough to have known a few folks who worked on the developmwent of the original fission weapon. I remember talking to my undergrad advisor (Prof John Dewire) about his service Los Alamos and the subsequent moral dilemmas. Also Hans Bethe (my personal hero) had some very prescient attitudes about nuclear weapons (largely his creation) and was very much involved in political activities regarding limiting thermonuclear proliferation. They were political folks, and I wonder what they would say with regard to the Ukraine question. If we are unable to debate it in a rational manner then that alone speaks volumes.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Are we safer because Ukraine ceded its Nuclear stockpile?

Sadly I think the answer to this may be no.

I agree,and the fact the US turned a blind eye to Crimea in 2014 didn't help. Russia was, by that treaty, a guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity.

It would be fair, albeit of questionable wisdom, for the other guarantor to say "the disarmament isn't working out. Here's 100 nuclear-armed Tomahawks. Let us know if you still have troublesome neighbors"

 

[berkeman]

Here's the question that keeps recurring in my head:

Are we safer because Ukraine ceded its Nuclear stockpile?

Sadly I think the answer to this may be no. I still find that answer shocking. But how crazy is crazy?

As a moral issue it seems pretty clear that the west has already vacated the moral high ground, perhaps permanently.

I agree,and the fact the US turned a blind eye to Crimea in 2014 didn't help. Russia was, by that treaty, a guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity.

I have to admit that I've not kept up with the recent history of the region. Can you give some links to reading about these issues? It looks like there is much more to the current situation than what is being presented in the current events news articles...

 

[hutchphd]

Here's a start...seems pretty balanced:

 

[phinds]

It looks like there is much more to the current situation than what is being presented in the current events news articles...

Indeed there is. Interesting geopolitical situation that does NOT make the US look good.

 

[DennisN]

The UK news site The Guardian reports (6 minutes ago):

"
Russian forces will carry out 'special military operation' in Ukraine, says Putin

Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia will carry out a “special military operation” in Ukraine, Reuters reports.

In an address to the Russian people under way now and coinciding with the United nations security council meeting, the Russian president also said:

• clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces are “inevitable” and “only a question of time”.
• Further nato expansion and its use of Ukraine’s territory are unacceptable
• the Russian military operation aims to “protect people”
• circumstances “demand decisive action from Russia”

"

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...rope-sanctions-russian-invasion-border-troops

Furthermore:

Putin says he 'wants to “demilitarise and de-Nazify” Ukraine'

More from Putin’s address:

• The Russian president says he wants to “demilitarise and de-Nazify” Ukraine Putin has also called on Ukrainian soldiers to put down their weapons and go home, according to Reuters, citing the Russian news agency Tass.
• The Russian president adds that “in case of foreign interference, Russia will act immediately”.
• Responsibility for bloodshed will be on the hands of the “Ukrainian regime”
• Russia’s response “will be instant if anyone tries to take it on”
• He tells Ukrainians that “your fathers and grandfathers did not fight so you could help ‘neo-Nazis’”

Also, very sad news: MSNBC has now reported that explosions now have been heard in the Ukraine capital Kyiv.

 

[berkeman]

Yeah, crap. Here we go.

Thoughts with the people in the Ukraine, and neighboring countries. Watching it now...

 

[WWGD]

I am worried too. I've been following the situation closely the last couple of days. Actually I've been concerned ever since Russia took Crimea. But now it has escalated.

As a sidenote I personally suspect that the recent development will increase the support for a future NATO membership among the Swedish and Finnish population. I don't know if/when Sweden will join NATO though. We have a very long history of not being in any military alliance.

Hope you can fight back like the Finns did, though without losing your variant of Karelia et al.

 

[berkeman]

WITW...? Only a probing attack? Putin's chess game opening I guess, but he is toying with thousands of lives. I'm frustrated with the lack of a stone wall defense by NATO and the US, to be honest...

 

[StevieTNZ]

Putin is a revolting person and a paper bag job.

Sorry to my nurse who said the following to me:
"Before you say or write anything ask yourself three questions:
1. Is it true?
2. Is it necessary?
3. Is it kind?"