Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

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The discussion centers on the complexities and potential consequences of the ongoing tensions in Ukraine, drawing parallels to historical conflicts. Participants express concerns about the motivations behind Putin's actions, suggesting he aims to expand Russian influence and possibly recreate aspects of the Soviet Union. The effectiveness of Western sanctions is debated, with skepticism about their impact on halting Russian aggression. There are fears that if the West does not respond decisively, the situation could escalate beyond Ukraine, potentially affecting other regions like Taiwan. Overall, the conversation highlights the precarious nature of international relations and the risks of underestimating authoritarian ambitions.
  • #2,131
russ_watters said:
Autocrats and imperialists/conquerers rewrite history regardless of whether they win or lose.
Just to give an example of what I said , I mentioned the Katyn massacre earlier.

If you grew up during the USSR times you simply learned in history that Katyn was done by Germans. There simply was no way of even know the truth. Radio, TV , papers were all easily controllable media formats.
Libraries had only books approved by special commissions that had read each book before approving it for mass usage. Unless you had some aunt who directly witnessed those events and could pin point which man in which uniform did what you had no way of knowing.

You couldn't even put such information within artistic satire or a film, because those had to go through the KGB special commission on arts etc too, there was a special branch of KGB that only focused on literature , others on movies and cinema, music, books, not a word uttered could escape someones mouth unless it wasn't screened.

So whenever we talk about why Russians believe in propaganda so much well part of the reason is because their system has never ever in history given them anything besides just that.
The brief years of Yeltsin were merely a drop of water within the Sahara.

If it wasn't for the internet and modern means of quick transportation and communication Russia would be effectively not much further where it was in 1917 in terms of information,Well there were people from the intelligentsia and some others that knew the truth behind many events but they could barely say it to others. The only real change came with Gorbachev and in the second half of 80's.
So much so one of our local politicians dared to speak in Moscow in the Kremlin palace of Congress in 1988 IIRC, where he read out the secret parts of the Molotov Ribbentrop pact and openly claimed that Latvia had been invaded and occupied by the USSR in 1940.
The man who said it was Mavriks Vulfsons.
When he said what he said even in 88, there was a silence in the auditorium and the shock permeated the hall, some did not even know this was historic fact, others did not want to acknowledge.
https://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/9651/
Just as a remainder, Russia hasn't admitted any of the invasions and occupations that happened during the buildup of the USSR in the 20th century till this day, there should be no illusion they will admit anything with respect to Ukraine
 
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  • #2,132
Are you arguing that the West should declare war on Russia?
 
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Vanadium 50 said:
Are you arguing that the West should declare war on Russia?
We are already fighting a war, a propaganda war, a financial/sanctions war, a munitions war. We are not firing any bullets or sacrificing our soldiers or watching our women and children die , we are getting the Ukraines to do that for us.
 
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  • #2,134
Vanadium 50 said:
Are you arguing that the West should declare war on Russia?
Is that a question for me ?
 
  • #2,135
Vanadium 50 said:
Are you arguing that the West should declare war on Russia?
An unofficial state of war exists. Any official declaration should be only if Russia attacks a NATO country. We should just recognize that Ukraine is fighting for the whole Western World and we need to support them with weapons and supplies to make sure they prevail. They have plenty of willing fighters.
 
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  • #2,136
Vanadium 50 said:
Are you arguing that the West should declare war on Russia?
I'm not saying Tobias Ellwood has all the answers, but I think he outlines a possible means of engagement:



The other point is that NATO includes several countries bordering Russia, Belarus and Ukraine and they need to make a decision about whether they need to get involved.
 
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  • #2,137
If the question on whether to declare war on Russia is asked to me, let me answer like this...
US invaded Afghanistan to destroy Al Qaeda for the deaths of nearly 3000 Americans on 9/11
US invaded Iraq for far less, and on questionable groundsMeanwhile the USSR has murdered millions (no one knows the real number) and that was even before WW2.
So if we forget about fear, destruction , nuclear holocaust etc etc but just focus on the number of innocent deaths, war crimes, state terrorism and such then we should have invaded and toppled the regime of Russia about 90 years ago during the 1930's and Stalin's rule.
Purely from a just and honest viewpoint without considering anything else our military response is at least 90 years too late.
China (it's communist regime) should have been disassembled back in the 1960's during "Cultural revolution"

Hitler should have been stopped and prosecuted for conspiracy and attempted genocide the moment he took office, but nobody cared to actually read his book, maybe then they would have understood sooner...

This is of course bit fantasy (and fugue) on my part but if one cares for a honest opinion strictly by the book then this is how it should have went.
 
  • #2,138
I just watched a somewhat weird but good documentary made by DW about Russia, I can personally relate to this video as I have been interacting with Russians in my life and although they all are different because Russia is big and different regions differ in mentality there is this common problem for them about how they perceive strength, history, how their leaders perceive what is important and what can wait (well being of people VS army, government etc)
But I would suggest only watch it if you can see it fully, there is a story there that I believe is worth listening to.
I'd even go as far as to say that Putin is a skillful puppet master he has largely stayed in power because he has exploited that one weakness Russians have , see if you can spot it in the story of the mother and her army loving daughter, as well as the old lady talking about WW2 and God...

 
  • #2,139
artis said:
If you grew up during the USSR
I think the present situation is much more harder
 
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https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/po...ters-parliamentarians-military-and-spy-chiefs

Russia has “blacklisted” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Cabinet ministers, parliamentarians from all political parties, the Governor-General, and military and spy chiefs.

The blacklisting of 130 New Zealand politicians and officials, which will ban those listed from entering Russia, was a retaliation against the Government’s “unprecedented sanctions”, was announced overnight by the Russian foreign ministry.

No surprises here.
 
  • #2,141
wrobel said:
I think the present situation is much more harder
Well it depends on how you look at it, for someone growing up in the 40's and 50's where you had to burn your chair that you were sitting on to get some heat to survive after the war and food was a luxury item, that was definitely hard, like physically hard. My grandmother lost her feet fingers while giving food to soldiers in the forest, the winters were super cold, one mistake and say goodbye to a body part from frost.Now it's harder because there are many more variables and unknowns.
WW3 is not a if but when for me, I don't think it will happen now due to Ukraine but eventually in the future
 
  • #2,142
This is not warfare with a military objective, this is barbarous criminal behavior that the world must respond to short of WW3. How can Ukraine settle differences with a Russian state that promotes and sanctions these sort of actions with lies and disinformation on a global level?



https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...ited-nations-ee2fa37bb0ace7b4714c084998765f65
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other leaders accused Russia’s military of deliberately attacking the station. Russia, in turn, blamed Ukraine, saying it doesn’t use the kind of missile that hit the station — a contention experts dismissed.

The missiles were seen in the theater of combat Mar 31, 2022.

https://defence-blog.com/russian-tochka-u-ballistic-missiles-return-to-service-amid-ukraine-war/
The Russian military forces’ Tochka-U ( NATO reporting name is SS-21 Scarab-B) tactical ballistic missiles are operational again, according to open-source-intelligence analysts who scrutinize photos and videos on social media.

Belarus-based analyst released Wednesday video footage reportedly showing a column of Russian military vehicles with “V” marks, which was moving from Rechitsa towards Gomel along the M10 highway.

“There were at least 8 Tochka-U, several BTR-82a, about 9 KamAZ trucks, some of which are carrying Tochka-U missiles, communication vehicle and a crane,” the MotolkoHelp said in a Twitter post.Russian Armed Forces are reportedly using Tochka-U to strike targets in Ukraine.

https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
 
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  • #2,143
artis said:
Is that a question for me ?
Sorry. For @bob012345
 
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NPR interview with Artem Chapeye, a writer fighting in Ukrainian army, on his love story for his country, which he is defending.​



Chapeye reflects on being a pacifist who must fight for his country.

Artem Chapeye - "If you have to die, it's better to fight" on reflection of the execution of civilians in Bucha and other villages, and the attack on civilians at the railway station in Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine.

 
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  • #2,145
Viktor Maruniak is among dozens of local officials or community leaders who have been abducted or arbitrarily arrested by Russian forces as they seized territory in Ukraine, especially in the east and the south. These disappearances are both an attempt to coerce cooperation and a targeted effort to silence and intimidate Ukrainians who may oppose or organize against a Russian occupation.
https://www.vox.com/23012456/ukraine-russia-war-disappearances-kidnappings
The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has documented about 109 cases of suspected detention or enforced disappearances among civilians since February 24, including 48 local officials. The UN and other human rights groups have confirmed disappearances among other members of civil society: volunteers, activists, journalists, religious leaders, protesters, and former military veterans. (Vox reached out to the Russian Embassy for comment, but did not receive a response.)

Anastasiia Moskvychova, who has been tracking disappearances for ZMINA, says they have confirmed more than 100 arbitrary detentions since February 24; about 50 people are still missing.

But Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Kyiv-based activist and head of the Center for Civil Liberties, said these numbers are only the “top of the iceberg.” Her group is tracking dozens more suspected cases of enforced disappearances, but they are still trying to corroborate evidence, a task that’s all the more difficult in Russian-occupied areas. Other times, family and friends of the suspected victims fear making that information public.
 
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  • #2,146
russ_watters said:
Ain't that the truth. I was just talking about this with a non-western friend who scoffed at the bubble we westerners live in. We've allowed ourselves to believe that that capacity disappeared after WWII and would "never again" happen/be allowed to happen. But that's just our privilege of being in that bubble.

My grandfather was actually one of the only people I ever knew who truly believed that the events of WW2 would be repeated.

My grandfather was a fighter pilot in WW2 and he fought over the skies of Italy before being shot down, miraculously surviving, getting found & taken in by the Italian Resistance, then trying to escape Italy with a bunch of guys before getting caught, sent to a POW camp, escaped, captured and then sent to a much worse POW camp where he saw many war crimes were committed before he finally escaped from that one and walked across Italy & France before getting a boat back to England right at the very end of the war.

Humph 1.JPG

(My grandfather (left) with his Curtiss P40 Kittyhawk in Tunisia, shortly before he left for Italy)

Pretty much everyone in my family had a story to tell about WW1 & WW2 as people for generations fought & helped in both wars (there's a lot of military & medical peeps in my family ancestry, 2 of my g.grandfathers were also war captains who fought in the Somme). But my grandfather was NEVER convinced that the peace that ensured after WW2 would ended would last. In fact he was truly shocked that it lasted as long as it did and he was utterly convinced that he would see a WW3 in his lifetime. He didn't just whittle on about this kind of stuff with empty words either, he actually took precautions for WW3, such as learning 8 languages, including 4 different dialects of Russian (he said because although he didn't know how WW3 would start, if it did, he was sure that Russia would have something to do with it 😅) and he never gave up his veterans farm in Australia as he knew all too well that the people who starved the most in WW2 were the ones without land (in fact this was something that both he and one of my g.grandfathers both shared in common (a shared belief in the importance of farmland) and my grandfather was pretty gutted that I never got to have any land). The reason why he learned so many languages was also because after having had to escape from Nazi occupied Italy on foot, he knew the importance of knowing and being able to speak foriegn languages properly as such knowledge often made the life/death difference for many people fleeing back then (including some other relatives of mine who had Jewish ancestry and had to escape both Germany and then Russia on foot).

So my grandfather would've 100% agreed with you; he also thought that most people here were living in a bubble of privilege and had no real idea about what life could really be like for a lot of people in the world.

My grandfather died in 2016, but I'll never forget a lot of his stories, beliefs & advice. Unfortunately for me, I don't have any land, I'm rubbish at learning foriegn languages and when events like the ones in Ukraine began to first unfold, I felt like I was one of the only people I knew who was taking the situation that seriously (even then, I was talked out of doing a lot of self-protective measures like stocking up on foodstuffs).

I'm pretty much a nobody, but my general gut feeling on matters is that even if in the near future the events in Ukraine are somehow wrapped up/paused for a while, I feel that this will all be the precursor to something much, much worse in the future (a real WW3, occurring in the next 8 years or so).
 
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  • #2,148
Isopod said:
My grandfather was actually one of the only people I ever knew who truly believed that the events of WW2 would be repeated.
As far I as know, most people of my generation (born 1963) feared there would be nuclear war. It was discussed at school and on TV and at home. I am too young to really remember Vietnam, but there were no illusions until the 1990's that the world might ever become a peaceful place. Those illusions, in any case, were shattered on 9/11 and by the Iraq war.

I can't say why Russia has gone down the road it has and why the European leaders have been so blind to Putin's intentions. But, I doubt your grandfather was the only one who feared that peace in Europe would not last.
 
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  • #2,149
PeroK said:
I can't say why Russia has gone down the road it has
Gone down?
Hasn't Russia always been down that road?
 
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  • #2,150
Isopod said:
such as learning 8 languages including 4 different dialects of Russian
4 dialects of Russian? Wow that is definitely a bit of an overkill, I have yet to meet a Russian who would know all those dialects, but whenever you speak Russian still every Russian understand what your saying (also Ukrainian, Kazakh, Mongol, almost all Baltic people,Georgians most of Polish etc etc), especially if you use the censored part of their language:biggrin: (which is pretty vast)
 
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  • #2,151
PeroK said:
As far I as know, most people of my generation (born 1963) feared there would be nuclear war. It was discussed at school and on TV and at home. I am too young to really remember Vietnam, but there were no illusions until the 1990's that the world might ever become a peaceful place. Those illusions, in any case, were shattered on 9/11 and by the Iraq war.

I can't say why Russia has gone down the road it has and why the European leaders have been so blind to Putin's intentions. But, I doubt your grandfather was the only one who feared that peace in Europe would not last.

Actually yeah, you are are right, one of my teachers was telling me about this recently (the whole Cold War fear stuff). He said that the 1980s he was a young guy living in London and back then, the Cold War situation got so serious that the government actually started drawing up mandatory military conscription letters to force people to fight in the war (which looked like it could start any moment). My teacher said that he actually got one of these military draft letters sent to him in the post and it sent a shiver down his spine because he is such a tiny guy (very short & skinny), he thought he wouldn't stand a chance on the battlefield and would just end up as cannon fodder.
My teacher has been taking the events in Ukraine very seriously. He said that due to his age now (60s), the one good thing is that they likely wouldn't force him to serve in the military anymore, but he is really concerned for the younger generations and what we might be forcefully subjected to were a war to start (his heart is breaking for all the young people in Ukraine right now too).

I watched this video on surviving nuclear fallout a little while back:



But a few people have told me that nuclear weapons are so incredibly powerful now that the info in this video is out of date (its more applicable to a nuclear fallout situation in the 40s/50s) because if a modern-day nuclear bomb was dropped on us, there would be no survivors left to even worry about surviving in a post-fallout world (I don't know if this is true, but I'd like to have a plan just in case there is a chance for survival). People have also said to me that even if it were possible to survive, you also wouldn't want to live in a nuclear fallout world anyway (that the ones who got obliterated by the initial blast would basically be the lucky ones).

I grew up in that bubble era. Hmm...I dunno...I think that sometimes people in my generation are too sensitive about stuff (in both good ways and bad ways). A lot of people either seem to be so upset about events in Ukraine that they can't discuss the events at all, or they still very much seem to think that this is something that will remain contained in Ukraine and won't spread outside of it. And a lot of people seem to be afraid of upsetting or offending people by discussing the matter entirely, so it doesn't get talked about all that much (to be fair though, there are fair few Russian, Ukrainian & Polish students at my uni, sooo 😐...). People are VERY interested here in trying to do something to help (a lot of people are making posters and doing fundraising efforts to help Ukrainians) but few people seem to want to face/talk about the brutalities of the war.

Personally I'd like to see a lot more in the way of dead body photos & videos (they're always so censored in our media) and hear more of the gritty accounts occurring in Ukraine because I want to try to better face the realities that these people are going through. I also don't think that our media censoring so many images of the dead is helping as online I have noticed it's leading to a lot of people disputing the Ukrainian accounts (obviously its a Kremlin story that the corpses are actors, but with so people not being able to see the dead clearly, its making it harder for people to dispute that).

Nothing particularly shocks me about life. Plenty of people in my family suffered from PTSD/CPTSD and I grew up with a lot of stories about war (people in my family don't hold back) and I've also lived many lives myself so far. I also used to live with an ex-SAS guy who fought in the Falklands and Yugoslav/Balkans wars of the 90s and amongst other things, he was a war photographer. He once showed me some of his (illegal) photo albums documenting war crimes from those eras (lots of mass graves, etc), it was very eye opening. He was left traumatized by the things he witnessed. One of my friends at uni has also done a number of art projects on the subject of war & refugees as her family came to this country as refugees from the Yugoslav wars and it affected her family a lot.
First-hand account stories are always incredibly eye-opening...
 
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  • #2,152
artis said:
4 dialects of Russian? Wow that is definitely a bit of an overkill, I have yet to meet a Russian who would know all those dialects, but whenever you speak Russian still every Russian understand what your saying (also Ukrainian, Kazakh, Mongol, almost all Baltic people,Georgians most of Polish etc etc), especially if you use the censored part of their language:biggrin: (which is pretty vast)

It was pretty impressive! I think he in part learned so many because he really enjoyed learning the Russian language in general (he always loved a challenge haha 😅, he was a very smart man! He never stopped learning in his retirement). I can't speak Russian (so I have no idea how difficult it is for people to understand very different dialects) but I will always have this one memory of when I was 16 years old living in this shared accomodation place (I moved out of home very young) and my grandparents came around to visit me. As they were trying to find my room, my grandfather bumped into one of the other people living there who was this Lithuanian woman who could barely speak a word of English and so would often speak with mixture of Lithuanian & English words and expect us to understand her somehow (we often did not 🤐). My grandfather couldn't speak Lithuanian, but apparently Lithuanian and Russian are very similar languages and so initially he mistook her for possibly speaking some form of Russian. I came out of my room at this point only to see the 2 of them in the hallway trying to communicate with each other in mixture of English, Lithuanian & Russian as my grandfather tried out all his different dialects on her 😂 . Up until this point, I had no idea that he could even speak Russian so when I saw the 2 of them, I stood there mouth ajar for a while just watching the 2 of them go at it (my grandfather later said that he found the experience fun as he rarely came across anyone to try out his Russian on).
 
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  • #2,153
PeroK said:
As far I as know, most people of my generation (born 1963) feared there would be nuclear war. It was discussed at school and on TV and at home. I am too young to really remember Vietnam, but there were no illusions until the 1990's that the world might ever become a peaceful place. Those illusions, in any case, were shattered on 9/11 and by the Iraq war.

I can't say why Russia has gone down the road it has and why the European leaders have been so blind to Putin's intentions. But, I doubt your grandfather was the only one who feared that peace in Europe would not last.
My phobia through my teens. Probably till after the first Iraq war.
Seeing bodies pulled out of rubble helps one to focus on other people's misery rather than one's own paranoia.

On another note there has been some changes at the top in the Russian military. I. Suppose that is good in one way, if it ain't broke don't fix it. The Ukraines have broken some stuff which is good.
The guy who is taken over has experience from Syria which sounds ominous. Asads methods seem to focus on pounding towns till all that is left was rubble and bodies. He was also accused of chemical weapon use.
That could be one of the lines we discussed earlier.
 
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  • #2,154
Prime minister of Slovakia
 
  • #2,155
A Russian "Tockha" rocket booster stage landed in Kramatorsk, the white paint on the rocket translates to approximately "for children" , could be interpreted as for the revenge of Russian children or for the death of Ukrainian children who knows.
FPz3hoaXMAEcSL8?format=jpg&name=900x900.jpg


FPz2Zk1XsAQgIK6?format=jpg&name=small.jpg
 
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pinball1970 said:
Asads methods seem to focus on pounding towns till all that is left was rubble and bodies. He was also accused of chemical weapon use.

The Ukrainians have accused the Russians of using chemical weapons on Ukraine already. More specifically, using White Phospherous bombs in Kramatorsk:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...l-russia-phosphorus-bombs-biden-b2041973.html

Obviously, Russia has already used Cluster bombs and Thermobaric weapons on Ukraine, but I believe the Ukrainian accounts of White Phospherous bombs being used. Years ago there quite a number of reports of Russia dropping White Phospherous bombs on Syrians in the war over there:



Israels white phospherous bombs:


(Israel later admitted using White Phospherous bombs: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jan/21/gaza-phosphorus-shells )

Lowdown on White Phospherous bombs, their uses & effects:





Footage of the bombs in action being used in Mosul:

Putins recently accused Ukraine of using Biological weapons and whilst I don't believe this, it does infer that Putin could be considering using them next.

I feel that Putin is constantly trying to antagonize the West into making a false move so that he can justify using much worse weapons on us. Obviously, there was this incident last month where Russian fighter jets carrying nuclear weapons violated Swedish airspace: https://www.euractiv.com/section/po...ng-nuclear-weapons-violated-swedish-airspace/

Putin is just egging for a WW3.
 
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Isopod said:
Putin is just egging for a WW3.
The analysis I have seen from thise who know Russia (Kasparov, Khodorkovsky etc.) Is quite the opposite. Putin would not have invaded if he believed NATO would fight. He's relying on us not to fight.

There is a risk in getting involved, but in no way does Putin intend to start WW3. If he did, all he would have to do is nuke the West preemptively.
 
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  • #2,159
And here is the Slovakian owned Russian S-300 loaded up onto train and sent to Ukraine.
 
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