Pangea Ultima

[256bits]

TL;DR

In ~250 Myr, all continents will converge to form Earth’s next supercontinent, Pangea Ultima. A natural consequence of the creation and decay of Pangea Ultima will be extremes in pCO2
due to changes in volcanic rifting and outgassing.

According to this simulation study, the formation of super continent Pangea Ultima brings with it big changes in climate.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01259-3

Abstract​

Mammals have dominated Earth for approximately 55 Myr thanks to their adaptations and resilience to warming and cooling during the Cenozoic. All life will eventually perish in a runaway greenhouse once absorbed solar radiation exceeds the emission of thermal radiation in several billions of years. However, conditions rendering the Earth naturally inhospitable to mammals may develop sooner because of long-term processes linked to plate tectonics (short-term perturbations are not considered here). In ~250 Myr, all continents will converge to form Earth’s next supercontinent, Pangea Ultima. A natural consequence of the creation and decay of Pangea Ultima will be extremes pCO2 in due to changes in volcanic rifting and outgassing. Here we show that increased pCO2 , solar energy (F<span>⨀</span>; approximately +2.5% W m−2 greater than today) and continentality (larger range in temperatures away from the ocean) lead to increasing warming hostile to mammalian life. We assess their impact on mammalian physiological limits (dry bulb, wet bulb and Humidex heat stress indicators) as well as a planetary habitability index. Given mammals’ continued survival, predicted background pCO2 levels of 410–816 ppm combined with increased F<span>⨀</span> will probably lead to a climate tipping point and their mass extinction. The results also highlight how global landmass configuration, pCO2 and F<span>⨀</span> play a critical role in planetary habitability.


https://www.msn.com/en-ca/weather/t...tp&cvid=69555be568d84f2485e9c23078fdf9f5&ei=7

The central premise of the study is the formation of Pangea Ultima, a future supercontinent projected to emerge in approximately 250 million years. As Earth’s tectonic plates continue to shift, the continents are expected to converge into a single, massive landmass straddling the equator.
The simulations show global mean land temperatures increasing by as much as 30 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Average temperatures across the future supercontinent would reach between 24.5°C and 35.1°C, with regional highs climbing significantly further.

 

[Baluncore]

Extrapolation, in the presence of the butterfly effect, makes for an interesting fictional story. What prediction would you like on the next run of the model?

 

[BillTre]

Forming a super continent will also push up new mountains which will provide new opportunities for their weathering which removes CO₂.

 

[Klystron]

Interesting speculation. Reading the articles on possible future Terra makes me curious about land/ocean configurations of exoplanets given similar plate tectonics. Meaning we can model future Earth but visualize relatively current configurations of other planets and moons with similar characteristics to Earth, given speed of light lags and other limitations.