Paul Octopus: 7 Consecutive Winner Predictions?

[Calimero]

What were the chances that Paul the octopus predicts winners in 7 matches in a row? Assuming that teams are of equal quality, and that first 3 matches could have been tie, and that he didn't have 'tie' option to choose.

 

[CompuChip]

Assuming that all the outcomes were independent,

$$\left( \frac{1}{3} \right)^3 \cdot \left( \frac{1}{2} \right)^4 \approx 0.2 \%$$

 

[Calimero]

Thanks CompuChip. Whole thing is very amusing.

Edit: He actually accurately predicted 8 matches in World cup, so it would be around 0.1% chances to pick the winners on random basis.

 

[Office_Shredder]

I suspect that he picked the countries based on how much red is in the flag... all the times Germany won, they had more red in their flag with the exception of Ghana, which was equal. Both times Germany lost it was to countries with as much or more red in their flags

 

[techmologist]

Maybe Paul can help me finally hit the pick 6. Been trying since '04. A dadburn head-foot can pick seven, and I can't pick a lousy six? It ain't right.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

I suspect that he picked the countries based on how much red is in the flag... all the times Germany won, they had more red in their flag with the exception of Ghana, which was equal. Both times Germany lost it was to countries with as much or more red in their flags

I hope this or some similar rational explanation works because otherwise, this is downright freaky!