(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); 1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data

In New York in the last 3 years there were 55 driving accidents. Assume all days are alike. What is the approximate probability that "in the next 3 years there will be at least 2 days with more than one accident".

2. Relevant equations

Poisson approximation

3. The attempt at a solution

P[in the next 3 years there will be at least 2 days with more than one accident]=

1-P[in the next 3 years there will be 0 days with more than one accident]-P[in the next 3 years there will be 1 day with more than one accident]

P[in the next 3 years there will be 0 days with more than one accident] is simple to calculate: 1095!/(1040!*1095^55), w/ 3 years=1095 days.

But I have no idea how to calculate P[in the next 3 years there will be 1 day with more than one accident].

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# Poisson Distribution of Accidents

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