Probability and quantum possibilities

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    Probability Quantum
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the interpretation of quantum mechanics (QM) and the probabilities associated with quantum events, particularly the hypothetical scenario of walking through a wall. Participants explore the implications of quantum tunneling and the scales of probability involved in such events.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • One participant suggests that in QM, anything that can happen will happen, framing it as a matter of probability.
  • Another participant clarifies that while anything that can happen can occur, it is not guaranteed to happen, emphasizing the role of probability without implying that all reality is governed by it.
  • Participants express curiosity about the specific probabilities of events like walking through a wall, with estimates suggesting extremely low probabilities, such as 1 in a billion raised to a power.
  • One participant mentions a previous calculation of the probability of tunneling to Jupiter, indicating it was an extraordinarily large number, though they cannot recall the exact figure.
  • Another participant notes that given enough time, even highly improbable events could occur, suggesting that the vastness of time could allow for such tunneling events to happen eventually.
  • There is a light-hearted acknowledgment of the enormity of the numbers discussed, with some participants expressing uncertainty about the exact values but agreeing on their impracticality.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the extremely low probabilities associated with quantum tunneling events, but there is no consensus on the exact figures or the implications of these probabilities. The discussion remains exploratory and speculative.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge the limitations of their estimates and the dependence on various assumptions regarding quantum mechanics and the nature of probabilities in QM.

NanaToru
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So this might be a too simplistic question on many accounts.

My pchem professor said to us that in QM, anything that can happen will. And it's a matter of probability, right?

I guess I'm just curious what the scales are for something like, say, walking through a wall (the go-to example for a lot of popular science books on QM)? Like, 1 in a billion or what?
 
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NanaToru said:
My pchem professor said to us that in QM, anything that can happen will. And it's a matter of probability, right?

Not quite. It says that anything that can happen, well, can happen. (It is not guaranteed to happen) Yes it is a matter of probability. But don't take this to mean that all of reality and life is probability. Even if it is you don't live your life in fear that every particle in your body is going to quantum tunnel in random directions at the same time.

I guess I'm just curious what the scales are for something like, say, walking through a wall (the go-to example for a lot of popular science books on QM)? Like, 1 in a billion or what?

1 in a billion ^1023. Actually I don't know the right number, and I doubt anyone actually does, but I guarantee it to be so large it is effectively incomprehensible.
 
The likelihood of that happening is so low that the universe is far too young for that to be an outcome.

At least, most likely. :smile: You never know, maybe something like that has happened.
 
Drakkith said:
1 in a billion ^1023. Actually I don't know the right number, and I doubt anyone actually does, but I guarantee it to be so large it is effectively incomprehensible.

That number probably does the odds some justice. I remember calculating the probability of jumping and tunneling all the way to Jupiter, and it was like e^{10^{10^6}} or something. I don't even remember now.

It should be noted that anything that can happen will happen with enough time. Even the probability above says that if the universe lasts long enough, a tunneling event of that magnitude should likely happen.
 
soothsayer said:
That number probably does the odds some justice. I remember calculating the probability of jumping and tunneling all the way to Jupiter, and it was like e^{10^{10^6}} or something. I don't even remember now.

It should be noted that anything that can happen will happen with enough time. Even the probability above says that if the universe lasts long enough, a tunneling event of that magnitude should likely happen.

My god that's an enormous number.
 
It may have been smaller, I can't remember now XD It was definitely e^10 to a really big power, but it may have been closer to 100 than one million. At that point though, what's the difference, really? It's not going to happen, lol.
 

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