Probability convolution problem

In summary, the problem is to find the probability of a certain range for a random variable Y, which is the sum of two independent random variables X1 and X2. The professor uses the convolution formula to find the density function of Y, and then divides it into cases based on the limits of integration. This is because the density function of X2 is only relevant for certain values of t. By dividing into cases, the professor is able to evaluate the integral and solve the problem.
  • #1
fruitbubbles
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So this is a probability question, and I am asked to find P(0.6 < Y <= 2.2)

where Y = X1 + X2

X1~U(0,1) and X2~exp(2). X1 and X2 are both independent random variables. Our professor worked it out, but I do not understand his explanation. So he starts by using the convolution:$$f_y (t) = \int_{-\infty}^\infty f_{x_1}(u)f_{x_2}(t-u) \, du $$

I know the density function (fx1) for a uniform distribution is 0 if u is less than 0 or greater than 1, so this whole integral is 0 except when u is between 0 and 1.

$$f_y (t) = \int_{0}^1 f_{x_1}(u)f_{x_2}(t-u) \, du $$, in which case fx1 is just 1, so we just have

$$f_y (t) = \int_{0}^1 f_{x_2}(t-u) \, du $$

We substitute y = t-u and du = -dy, and since we substituted, I know we change the limits of integration and now we have:

$$f_y (t) = \int_{t-1}^t f_{x_2}(y) \, du $$

so for $$f_{x_2}(y) = \begin{cases} 0 & \text{if $x < 0$} \\ \lambda e^{-\lambda y} & \text{if $x>=0$} \end{cases}$$. (because that's the density function of the exponential distribution) I understand until this point, but at this point my professor

"divides it into cases":

for case: (0 <= t <= 1), he gets

$$\int_{0}^t \lambda e^{-\lambda y} \, dy = 1-e^{-\lambda t }$$, also changing the limits of integration, and then in the case of (t > 1),

$$\int_{t-1}^t \lambda e^{-\lambda y} \, dy = e^{-\lambda t } - e^{-\lambda t } $$,

and then solves the integrals from there. I have NO CLUE why he divided into those "cases", and how he determined to what the limits of integration should be for each case, so if anyone could help me (I know this was a long problem), please ! I understand that there are may be other ways to do it, but I'm pretty sure our professor wants us to understand this for our exam, so if anyone understand what exactly he is doing and can help me, I'd really appreciate it.

If it helps, this is what he did after diving it into cases:

so for $$f_{x_2}(y) = \begin{cases} 0 & \text{if $t < 0$} \\ 1-e^{-\lambda t } & \text{if $0<= t <= 1$} \\ e^{-\lambda t } - e^{-\lambda t } & \text{if $t > 1$} \end{cases}$$so from there it goes:
P(0.6 < Y <= 2.2) = $$\int_{0.6}^{2.2} f_y (t) dt$$ = $$\int_{0.6}^{1} 1-e^{-\lambda t } dt$$ + $$\int_{1}^{2.2} e^{-\lambda t } - e^{-\lambda t } dt$$

I understand this part, but it's the part where he does different "cases" that I just lose it
 
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  • #2
The integral to evaluate is
[tex] \int_{t-1}^t f_{x_2}(u) \, du [/tex]

(note that the variable of integration must be the same throughout: your line above uses y and du)
The density [itex] f_{x_2}(x)[/itex] is zero if x < 0: if [itex] 0 < t < 1 [/itex] then [itex] t - 1 <0 [/itex] so integrating from that lower limit is irrelevant.
 
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Likes fruitbubbles
  • #3
statdad said:
The integral to evaluate is
[tex] \int_{t-1}^t f_{x_2}(u) \, du [/tex]

(note that the variable of integration must be the same throughout: your line above uses y and du)
The density [itex] f_{x_2}(x)[/itex] is zero if x < 0: if [itex] 0 < t < 1 [/itex] then [itex] t - 1 <0 [/itex] so integrating from that lower limit is irrelevant.
huh. What a simple explanation, and it makes perfect sense. Thank you!
 

1. What is a probability convolution problem?

A probability convolution problem is a mathematical problem that involves combining two probability distributions to find the probability of a certain event occurring. It is commonly used in statistics and probability theory to model real-world situations.

2. How do you solve a probability convolution problem?

To solve a probability convolution problem, you first need to find the convolution of the two probability distributions. This can be done by multiplying the two probability density functions and integrating the result. Then, you can calculate the probability of the desired event by integrating the convolution over the range of values that correspond to the event.

3. What is the difference between convolution and multiplication in probability?

The main difference between convolution and multiplication in probability is that convolution takes into account the joint probability of two events occurring, while multiplication does not. Convolution is used when the two events are not independent, meaning that the outcome of one event can affect the outcome of the other.

4. What are some real-world applications of probability convolution?

Probability convolution is commonly used in fields such as finance, engineering, and physics to model complex systems and make predictions about future events. It is also used in machine learning and data analysis to analyze and interpret data.

5. Can probability convolution be used for more than two distributions?

Yes, probability convolution can be used for any number of probability distributions. The process of finding the convolution involves multiplying all the probability density functions and integrating the result. This allows for multiple distributions to be combined and analyzed together.

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