Probability of Guessing game outcome

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of Mr. Keller correctly guessing all outcomes of 32 NCAA tournament games, given his individual game success probability of 0.61. The subject area is probability theory, specifically focusing on the binomial distribution.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Mathematical reasoning, Assumption checking

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • Participants discuss the application of the binomial distribution to find the probability of multiple correct guesses. There are questions about the correct use of a calculator for this calculation and the specific inputs required for the binomial probability function.

Discussion Status

Some participants have provided insights into the binomial distribution formula and how it relates to the problem. There is an ongoing exploration of the correct inputs for the calculator, with some participants questioning the accuracy of the formula presented and suggesting corrections.

Contextual Notes

There is mention of the class being a calculator course, which may limit the participants' familiarity with the underlying algebraic theory of probability. This context may influence the types of questions and approaches discussed.

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Homework Statement



Mr. Keller filled out a bracket for the NCAA national tournament, based on his knowledge of college basketball, he has a .61 probability of guessing anyone game correctly.

What is the probability Mr. Keller will pick all 32 of the first round games correctly?

Homework Equations



Binomial distribution?

The Attempt at a Solution



This class is a calculator course, so I don't know any of the algebraic theory, but I try to plug it into my binomialpdf on my calculator and it's not coming out correctly, how would I calculate this?
 
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RyanTAsher said:

Homework Statement



Mr. Keller filled out a bracket for the NCAA national tournament, based on his knowledge of college basketball, he has a .61 probability of guessing anyone game correctly.

What is the probability Mr. Keller will pick all 32 of the first round games correctly?

Homework Equations



Binomial distribution?

The Attempt at a Solution



This class is a calculator course, so I don't know any of the algebraic theory, but I try to plug it into my binomialpdf on my calculator and it's not coming out correctly, how would I calculate this?
What buttons on your calculator have you been taught to press?
 
The binomial distribution looks something like:
if x is the number of correct guesses and p is the probability of a correct guess, then the probability of x correct guesses out of n tries P(x) can be written:
*edited, thank you to Ray for pointing it out*
##P(x) =\left( \begin{array}{c} n \\ x \end{array}\right) p^x(1-p)^{n-x}##
Your input for the calculator might be something like shown here where you input [n= number of trials, p=probability of correct, x = #correct].
If the output is anything close to correct, it would be the same as if you calculated the formula for P(x).
In this case, it should give something near ##10^{-7}##.
 
Last edited:
RUber said:
The binomial distribution looks something like:
if x is the number of correct guesses and p is the probability of a correct guess, then the probability of x correct guesses out of n tries P(x) can be written:
##P(x) = p^x(1-p)^{n-x}##
Your input for the calculator might be something like shown here where you input [n= number of trials, p=probability of correct, x = #correct].
If the output is anything close to correct, it would be the same as if you calculated the formula for P(x).
In this case, it should give something near ##10^{-7}##.

The formula above is wrong; it should be
P(x) = {n \choose x} p^x \, (1-p)^{n-x},
where ##{n \choose x}## is the binomial coefficient "n choose x".
 
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