- #1
transmini
- 81
- 1
I'll start off by saying this is technically a coursework question, just not mine, nor of the present. I work in a tutoring center and it's been a while since I have taken stats and don't quite understand this person's professor's reasoning.
The general idea of the question was that there was a guy named Mr. Hope who had 2 pills which he could not distinguish. One of which was laced with poison, and the other was not. For one of Hope's victims, he offered them the choice of pills. The odds were 0.3 that the victim selected a pill. If the victim selected the pill, the odds were 0.5 that Hope would survive. If the victim did not select the pill, the odds were 0.65 that Hope would survive.
What are the odds of Hope surviving this endeavor with 2 victims, where the scenario is the exact same for each?What we did was say the odds of Hope surviving one encounter were ##0.3*0.5+0.7*0.65##, because there was a 30% chance of getting to the scenario of 50% chance of survival OR 70% chance of a 65% chance of survival, and then square this result to get it for surviving both of 2 encounters. But apparently the first step is wrong, so could anyone explain? He had ##0.3*0.65+0.7*0.5## if I recall correctly. I know he transposed 2 of the numbers in that sum.
The general idea of the question was that there was a guy named Mr. Hope who had 2 pills which he could not distinguish. One of which was laced with poison, and the other was not. For one of Hope's victims, he offered them the choice of pills. The odds were 0.3 that the victim selected a pill. If the victim selected the pill, the odds were 0.5 that Hope would survive. If the victim did not select the pill, the odds were 0.65 that Hope would survive.
What are the odds of Hope surviving this endeavor with 2 victims, where the scenario is the exact same for each?What we did was say the odds of Hope surviving one encounter were ##0.3*0.5+0.7*0.65##, because there was a 30% chance of getting to the scenario of 50% chance of survival OR 70% chance of a 65% chance of survival, and then square this result to get it for surviving both of 2 encounters. But apparently the first step is wrong, so could anyone explain? He had ##0.3*0.65+0.7*0.5## if I recall correctly. I know he transposed 2 of the numbers in that sum.