Probability of Taxi Arrival in 10 Minutes After 1 Hour Wait

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of a taxi arriving within 10 minutes after a one-hour wait, given that the time between taxi arrivals is exponentially distributed with a mean of 10 minutes. The focus is on understanding the setup of the problem, particularly the limits for integration and the concept of conditional probability.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Homework-related
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant describes the setup of the problem and attempts to establish limits for the integral to find the probability of a taxi arriving within the next 10 minutes after waiting for one hour.
  • Another participant suggests that the problem involves conditional probability rather than subtraction of probabilities.
  • A later post raises a question about finding the intersection of two probabilities, indicating a need for clarification on the formula for conditional probability.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not appear to reach a consensus on the correct approach to setting up the limits for integration or the proper method for calculating the conditional probability.

Contextual Notes

There is uncertainty regarding the appropriate limits for the integral and the correct interpretation of conditional probability in this context. The discussion reflects different interpretations of the problem setup.

mikemike123
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Heres the question... The time between arrivals of taxis at a busy intersection is exponentially distributed with a mean of 10 minutes.

The question I am stuck on is...

Suppose you have already been waiting for one hour for a taxi, what is the probability that one arrives within the next 10 minutes. (The first part of the problem was to find probability you wait longer then an hour which I figured the limits would be (60<x<infinity).

Well i know mew=beta=10 min=1/lambda=1/10

f(x)= lambda*e^-lambda which will ultimately give me 1/10e^-1/10xdx. I have my integral set up, the thing is I can't figure out my limits. My initial guess was to evaluate the integral from (0<x<60) and subtract (70<x<infinity), ultimately giving me the answer .9984 or 99.84%. I thought it was right but apparently wrong, can someone please help me set up the appropriate limits. Thanks in advance.
 
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mikemike123 said:
Heres the question... The time between arrivals of taxis at a busy intersection is exponentially distributed with a mean of 10 minutes.

The question I am stuck on is...

Suppose you have already been waiting for one hour for a taxi, what is the probability that one arrives within the next 10 minutes. (The first part of the problem was to find probability you wait longer then an hour which I figured the limits would be (60<x<infinity).

Well i know mew=beta=10 min=1/lambda=1/10

f(x)= lambda*e^-lambda which will ultimately give me 1/10e^-1/10xdx. I have my integral set up, the thing is I can't figure out my limits. My initial guess was to evaluate the integral from (0<x<60) and subtract (70<x<infinity), ultimately giving me the answer .9984 or 99.84%. I thought it was right but apparently wrong, can someone please help me set up the appropriate limits. Thanks in advance.

Not subtract. You have a conditional probability here.
 
Ok so if my given is the answer I got for my first part, .0025. How would I go on finding the Probability of P(AintersectB)?
 
mikemike123 said:
Ok so if my given is the answer I got for my first part, .0025. How would I go on finding the Probability of P(AintersectB)?

You need Pr(60 < t < 70) given Pr(60 < t). What's the formula for that?
 

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