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## Main Question or Discussion Point

So I'm having trouble calculating the probability of the following scenario:

I have 4 possible locations for 4 boxes. Each of these boxes may exist with a probability, β. There is also a circle, this circle definitely exists.

Attempt at solution:

So I figure that i would need to multiply the probability that there is only one connection by the probability that that box doesn't exist. The only problem is that I couldn't figure out which probability I am supposed to put in the binomial equation, because I can't put in (1-β) as p because then q would be β, but it doesn't matter to me that all the other boxes exist, all I care about is the box with the connection exists. And then I thought to put in the probability that there is one connection in for p, but then I got 1 and q is 0. So I am really not sure what to do...

I have 4 possible locations for 4 boxes. Each of these boxes may exist with a probability, β. There is also a circle, this circle definitely exists.

**There can only be one connection between the circle and the the group of boxes**(i.e. the circle**can only be**connected to one boxes). What is the probability that the circle is connected to a spot with a box which does not exist?Attempt at solution:

So I figure that i would need to multiply the probability that there is only one connection by the probability that that box doesn't exist. The only problem is that I couldn't figure out which probability I am supposed to put in the binomial equation, because I can't put in (1-β) as p because then q would be β, but it doesn't matter to me that all the other boxes exist, all I care about is the box with the connection exists. And then I thought to put in the probability that there is one connection in for p, but then I got 1 and q is 0. So I am really not sure what to do...

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