COVID Report On 80% Vaccination In Australia

[bhobba]

For those that like to read details about Covid modelling and vaccination rates, see the following:
https://grattan.edu.au/report/race-to-80/

80% is the magical number. It will be even better when we all get the third dose.

Note (added later):
Some assumptions are somewhat dubious - it is for educational purposes only. It needs to be done again IMHO to reflect new information on Delta, e.g. we know Pfizer effectiveness falls at 22% per month, and AZ falls at 7% per month. That's where the third dose becomes really important as it has in Israel. It is thought to have maximum effect with at least a 6-month gap between it and the second dose, although Israel is allowing 5 months. Aus will not be opening all at once. If the assumptions are wrong and we require a third dose before opening, it will have to be modified. But that is the current thinking from several 'think tanks'; 80%, including children, is the magic number. Note that it is recommended to make it part of normal school vacations we all got at school (or from our doctor), so it will become part of the no-jab, no-pay policy.

Thanks
Bill

 

[atyy]

Other than exponential spread, which depends on the percentage of population vaccinated, one would also like to have minimal severe disease and death, so it should also be important to consider the percentage of those aged 65 and above that are vaccinated (ie. it makes a difference whether the target population coverage is reached with 100% of teenagers vaccinated or 100% of elderly vaccinated).

For first doses, Israel, UK, Denmark, Portugal have reached 94% or more of elderly vaccinated.
The UK has had 93% of elderly vaccinated for months now, and that was before it opened up in July. Also the UK might have immunity in the elderly above 94% as indicated by the seropositivity (indicating either vaccination or previous natural infection) coming in above 99% in blood donors (biased sample, probably overestimates the population seropositivity).
Portugal is at 99% of elderly having had both first and second doses.

Israel: https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general?utm_source=go.gov.il&utm_medium=referral
Denmark: https://outbreaknewstoday.com/denma...eceived-the-first-covid-19-vaccination-79447/
UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-surveillance-report
Portugal: https://covid19.min-saude.pt/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Relato%CC%81rio-de-Vacinac%CC%A7a%CC%83o-n.o-29.pdf